Dollar Exhibits Weakness Again

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against most major currencies on Monday, extending losses from previous session, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will sound dovish this week after concluding its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 96.38, and after recovering to 96.63, faltered again and was hovering around 96.50, near its previous close.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged and the central bank's forecasts on future rates and economic growth are expected to provide directional clues for markets.

On the Brexit front, the Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow today blocked the government's motion to have another vote of the lawmakers on the deal. The speaker said the government couldn't bring the same exact motion twice, crushing Primer Minister Theresa May's hope of bringing the same deal back for a vote.

Following the Speaker's decision, the British Pound Sterling tumbled against major currencies. The greenback strengthened to 1.3252, gaining 0.3%.

Higher trade surplus in the eurozone propped up the Euro against the U.S. dollar to 1.1344, yielding it a gain of nearly 0.15%.

The Japanese yen was up by 0.06% against the greenback, trading at 111.41 yen a dollar.

The dollar was down 0.14% against the Swiss franc with the USD/CHF trading at 1.0007, and was down 0.27% against the Aussie, while it gained marginally against the Canadian loonie.

In U.S. economic news today, a report released by the National Association of Home Builders said Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has held steady in the month of March.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 62 in March, unchanged from February. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 63.

"Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

"In a healthy sign for the housing market, more builders are saying that lower price points are selling well, and this was reflected in the government's new home sales report released last week," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

He added, "Increased inventory of affordably priced homes - in markets where government policies support such construction - will enable more entry-level buyers to enter the market."


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Oil Futures Recover After Early Losses, Settle Higher

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures rebounded after early weakness and settled modestly higher on Monday, supported by OPEC-led production cuts and on U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.

OPEC's de-facto leader Saudi Arabia said over the weekend that the alliance will "stay the course" on restricting output as inventories continued to remain high.

A report from the Energy Information Administration said crude oil production from major U.S. shale plays its forecast to climb by 85,000 barrels a day in April to 8.592 million barrels a day.

The report said that oil output from the Permian Basin is expected to climb sharply, rising 40,000 barrels a day in April from March.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended up $0.57, or about 1%, at $59.09 a barrel, the highest settlement on more than 4 months.

On Friday, oil futures for April ended down $0.09, or 0.2%, at $58.52 a barrel.

According to reports, OPEC and its allies have reportedly canceled a meeting they had scheduled for in April, in order to assess the impact of U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.

The OPEC expects the market will remain oversupplied through the first half of 2019, said Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih at a committee meeting in Baku, Azerbajian.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which met today, said that "overall conformity" with the production cut agreement among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some nonmember allies that began at the start of the year rose to almost 90% in February, up from 83% in January.

The JMMC said its next meeting will be in May and then the full group of OPEC will gather on June 25 to decide on output cut extensions.


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Treasuries Close Little Changed Following Choppy Trading Day

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Treasuries showed a lack of direction over the course of the trading session on Monday before ending the day slightly lower.

Bond prices spent most of the trading day lingering near the unchanged line. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its prices, crept up by less than a basis point to 2.602 percent.

The choppy trading on the day came as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement later this week.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although traders are likely to keep a close eye on the accompanying statement for clues about the outlook for rates.

The central bank's economic projections and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's subsequent press conference are also likely to be in focus.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the National Association of Home Builders showing homebuilder confidence has held steady in the month of March.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 62 in March, unchanged from February. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 63.

"Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

A report on factory orders may attract some attention on Tuesday, although trading activity is likely to remain subdued ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday.


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Gold Futures Settle Marginally Lower

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors opted for riskier assets amid optimism about U.S.-China trade deal after reports said the two countries have made further "concrete progress" on the text of a final agreement.

However, the decline was just marginal as the dollar stayed subdued ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, due later this week. It is widely expected that the Fed will sound dovish with regard to rate hikes.

The dollar index, which moved in a tight range, was up by about 0.06% at 96.58.

Gold futures for April ended down $1.40, or 0.1%, at $1,301.50 an ounce, around $5.00 off the day's high.

On Friday, gold futures for April ended up $7.80, or 0.6%, at $1,302.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.002, at $15.322 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9090 per pound, gaining $0.0030 for the session.

The Fed is likely to hold rates unchanged if recent economic reports are any indication. Recent data showed U.S. factory production slumped for a second month in February. Factory activity in New York state hit nearly a two-year low this month and Japanese exports fell for a third month in February, indicating the global economy is facing major headwinds from the trade war.

In economic news today, homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has held steady in the month of March, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 62 in March, unchanged from February. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 63.

"Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for March 18, 2019

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.302.00. Potential double top formation is in creation.

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According to the H4 timeframe, we have found potential end of the upward correction (abc flat) in the background. It signals the opportunity for the bearish trend to continue. There is also a potential double top formed at the price of $1.306.00 and the doji candle on the test suggesting no demand for the Gold. We expect the price to test the swing low at $1.292.30 and $1.281.30. The key short-term resistance is at the price of $1.310.00.

Trading recommendation: we are bearish on the gold from $1.302.00 with the targets at $1.292.30 and $1.281.30. A stop loss order is to be placed at $1.311.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 18, 2019

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $3.956. Our first target is reached at $3.929, and we expect the second target to be hit as well.

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BTC is in consolidation phase (potential bullish flag pattern), and we anticipate the upward trend to continue. Stochastic oscillator is ready for an upswing. This is a good sign of an ongoing trend. Short-term resistance is seen at the price of $4.020 and $4.170. Key intraday support is seen at the price of $3.928.

Trading recommendation: We are bullish on BTC from 3.870, and we plan to add new position on the breakout of $4.000. Stop loss order is to be placed at $3.770, and take profit order is to be set at $4.170.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 18, 2019 : EUR/USD Bearish opportunity around upper border of trend channel.

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the depicted supply zone) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated.

Last week, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1315 which was followed by a period of indecision/hesitation that brought the pair again within the depicted supply zone.

This week, another bullish breakout attempt is being executed above 1.1327 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

This probably enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1370 and 1.1390 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

On the other hand, bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1270 (38.2% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick bearish retraction towards 1.1160 again where the lower limit of the movement channel can be tested again.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards 1.1390-1.1400 for a valid SELL signal.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1330, 1.1290 and 1.1220. S/L to be located above 1.1450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

German Economy Unlikely To Rebound In Q1: Bundesbank

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The German economy is unlikely to rebound in the first quarter as the manufacturing slowdown continued, the Bundesbank said Monday.

"The economic situation remained subdued after the turn of the year," the Bundesbank said in its monthly report.

While the manufacturing sector could remain the drag on growth for a third straight quarter, construction and private consumption are expected to extend support.

Troubles in the automobile industry continued to damp the industrial economy in the first quarter.

The rebound witnessed in the vehicle industry after the decline in output in the second half of 2018 due to the introduction of the WLTP emission testing regime can no longer be expected for the first quarter, the bank noted.

The Bundesbank's expected assessed the developments in the construction sector as favorable and expect private consumption to pick up further.

They also said the development on the labor market is positive with all labor demand indicators growing.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Holds Steady In March

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Homebuilder confidence in the U.S. has held steady in the month of March, according to a report released by the National Association of Home Builders on Monday.

The report said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 62 in March, unchanged from February. Economists had expected the index to inch up to 63.

"Builders report the market is stabilizing following the slowdown at the end of 2018 and they anticipate a solid spring home buying season," said NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde.

The unchanged reading by the homebuilder confidence index reflected a mixed performance by the three index components.

While the component charting sales expectations in the next six months rose three points to 71 and the component gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 68, the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers fell four points to 44.

"In a healthy sign for the housing market, more builders are saying that lower price points are selling well, and this was reflected in the government's new home sales report released last week," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

He added, "Increased inventory of affordably priced homes - in markets where government policies support such construction - will enable more entry-level buyers to enter the market."

Last Thursday, the Commerce Department released a separate report showing a substantial pullback in U.S. new home sales in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said new home sales plunged by 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 607,000 in January from a revised rate of 652,000 in December.

Economists had expected new home sales to edge down to a rate of 620,000 from the 621,000 originally reported for the previous month.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $317,200, down 0.6 percent from $319,100 in December and down 3.8 percent from $329,600 a year ago.

The report also said the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 336,000, representing 6.6 months of supply at the current sales rate.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 18, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical levels and trade recommendations.

Trading 18 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again on March 11.

A weekly gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) . However, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated rendering the mentioned bearish gap as a false bearish breakout.

Moreover, a short-term bearish channel was broken to the upside following the mentioned bullish recovery on March 11 rendering the short-term outlook as bullish.

As expected, bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3300 where significant bearish rejection is being demonstrated

For the current bullish outlook to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3230 ( 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level ) is mandatory. Otherwise, the current bullish scenario would be invalidated.

Moreover, bullish persistence above 1.3290 (78.6% Fibonacci expansion level) and 1.3368 ( 100% Fibonacci expansion level) is needed to pursue towards 1.3550-1.3580 (Bullish flag projection target).

On the other hand , bearish breakout below 1.3180 (50% Fibonacci Exp. level) invalidates this bullish setup rendering the short-term outlook bearish towards 1.3070-1.3050 where the depicted uptrend line comes to meet the GBPUSD pair to be tested once more.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com