EUR./USD analysis for March 15, 2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD has been trading sideways at 1.1315, and we found the fake breakout of the resistance at 1.1337, which was a sign of weakness.

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According to the H4 timeframe, we found the fake breakout of the resistance at 1.1337 and the bearish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator, which was a sign of the potential weakness. Also, there is the breakout of the upward trendline on the background, which is another sign of weakness. The key resistance is seen at 1.1337 and the key support - at 1.1180. The level of 1.1293 is the first short- term support.

Trading recommendation: we are to short EUR from 1.1315 with the stop at 1.1370 and target at 1.1180.

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March 15, 2019: EUR.USD approaching the upper limit of its trend channel

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) enhanced a further bullish advance towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the depicted supply zone) where lack of significant bearish pressure was demonstrated.

Earlier this week, previous negative fundamental data from US could push the EUR/USD pair for a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1315 which was followed by a period of indecision/hesitation.

Today, another bullish breakout attempt is being executed above 1.1327 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

This probably enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1370 and 1.1390 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

On the other hand, a bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1270 (38.2% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick retracement towards 1.1160 again where the lower limit of the movement channel can be tested again.

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BITCOIN Analysis for March 15, 2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite indecisive at the edge of $3,880 for a few days in a row. The price sustained the bullish momentum. The price was trapped in a range between $3,800 and $4,000 for a while. Now it is expected to rebound with a higher target in the coming days.

Fundamentally, there is not much going on the Bitcoin side but technical aspects show indecision and low liquidity in the market. During the range-bound correction, the price has been carried by the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the impulsive fall off the $4,200 in February. Currently the price has come under the bullish pressure with a target towards $4,000. If broken above with a daily close, we expect further bullish momentum with a target towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500. As the price remains above $3,500-600 with a daily close, BTC will maintain strong bullish bias.

SUPPORT: 3,500-600, 3,800-80

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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March 15, 2019. GBP/USD: High probability of intraday bullish pattern

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push the price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the current bearish pullback was demonstrated towards the uptrend again.

A weekly gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960). However, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on Monday rendering the mentioned bearish gap as a false bearish breakout.

Moreover, a short-term bearish channel was broken to the upside following the mentioned bullish recovery on Monday rendering the current outlook for the pair as bullish.

As expected, bullish persistence above 1.3060 allowed the GBPUSD pair to keep the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, then 1.3200.

For the current bullish outlook to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 ( 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level ) is mandatory. Otherwise, the current bullish scenario would be invalidated.

Moreover, bullish persistence above 1.3250 (78.6% Fibonacci expansion level) and 1.3320 (100% Fibonacci expansion level) is needed to pursue towards 1.3550-1.3580 (Bullish flag projection target).

On the other hand, a bearish breakout below 1.3200 (61.8%Fibonacci Exp. level) invalidates this bullish setup rendering the short-term bearish outlook towards 1.3070-1.3050 where the depicted uptrend line comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for March 15, 2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The pair is still trading around the daily pivot point of 0.6882. The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio, which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. On the other hand, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of AUD/USD for March 15, 2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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Analysis of EUR / USD divergence for March 15. Chart signals further growth

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Thus, the pair will continue its growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 100.0% - 1.1553. Closing below the level of 127.2% could be viewed as a trend reversal in favor of the US dollar. Besides, the pair could decline in the direction of the correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941. None of indicators shows emerging divergences today.

The Fibo grid is built on the ground of extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Trading recommendations:

Now traders can open long positions on EUR / USD with a target of 1.1351 as the pair closed above the level of 1.1299. Stop loss could be placed under the correction level of 76.4%.

Besides, tarders can consider short deals on EUR / USD with a target of 1.1216 provided that the pair closes below 1.1299. Stop loss order could be set above the Fibo level of 76.4%.

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Analysis of GBP/USD divergence for March 15: pair is stuck in narrow price range

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On the hourly chart, the pair rebounded several times from the retracement levels of 38.2% (1.3220) and 23.6% (1.3228). As a result, the latter rebound led to a possibility of a rally towards the retracement level of 23.6%. If the pair rebounds from this Fibo level, the US dollar will have a chance to reverse upwards and get back to the retracement level of 38.2%. If the pair settles below the Fibo level of 38.2%, it will increase the chances for a further fall towards the next retracement level of 50.0% - 1.3171.

The Fibo grid is built on extremes of March 11, 2019 and March 13, 2019.

Trading advice:

Buy deals on GBP/USD can be opened with the target at 1.3281 and the stop loss below the level of 38.2% since the pair has completed the rebound from the level of 1.3220 (hourly chart).

Sell deals on GBP/USD can be opened with the target at 1.3281 and the stop Loss order above the level of 23.6% if the pair bounces off the retracement level of 1.3281 (hourly chart).

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Technical analysis for EUR/USD for March 15, 2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD has pulled back towards 1.13 which is important short-term support and so far it holds above this level. There are some bearish reversal signs in the short-term 4-hour chart but we will need more signs of weakness to confirm the reversal.

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Red line - major resistance trend line

Blue lines - support trend lines

Green line - support

Orange rectangle - resistance area

EUR/USD has stopped its rise inside the orange rectangle resistance area. This is where we also find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. EUR/USD has pulled back towards the short-term support of 1.13-1.1290 we mentioned yesterday and continues to trade above it at the same time not clearly breaking below the blue upward sloping trend line. The RSI has broken through the blue support trend line. For this reversal to be confirmed bears need to see a lower low both in price and in the RSI. Therefore bulls must defend 1.1293. A four close below this level could push price towards 1.1240 or lower. I remain bearish as long as price is below the red resistance trend line.

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Trading Plan for 03/15/2019

Trading 15 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Big picture: Investors not annoyed about Brexit

The British parliament voted for a Brexit delay by a wide margin that is 400 vs. 200. So far, a delay of three months has been approved. Premier Theresa May will make another attempt to make an agreement with the EU Parliament until March 20. However, if a new deal is not settled by that date that is almost guaranteed, the UK departure will be postponed for a very long time.

So, the vote for the Brexit delay has calmed markets down as this matter is not so urgent any more.

The US provided a batch of macroeconomic data which clearly indicates that the domestic economy is losing momentum, but the downturn is not severe. On the whole, the US economy has proved its health in the 10-year period of growth without a crisis.

The US Federal Reserve is holding a policy meeting on Wednesday next week on March 20. The market is anticipating that the Fed will confirm its dovish rhetoric.

EUR/USD: The pair is likely to escape out of a trading range and start a clear trend. At the moment, it looks like the pair will move upward.

We buy at the breakthrough of 1.1340.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1175.

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