Dollar Rebounds After Recent Losses

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After four successive days of declines, the U.S. dollar rebounded on Thursday amid reports about a likely delay in U.S.-China trade agreement and the British Pound's retreat from a multi-month high it had recorded a day earlier.

On Brexit, the U.K. MPs today voted for Prime Minister Theresa May to ask the European Union for a delay to Brexit.

May said Brexit could now be delayed by three months, to 30 June,if MPs back her deal in a vote next week. In the event of her proposal getting rejected again, she said she will seek a longer extension. However, the delay has to be agreed by the 27 other EU member states.

Economic data out of the U.S. was a mixed bag, yet the greenback stayed firm right through the day.

The dollar index advanced to a high of 96.82 before easing a bit to 96.77, still up by over 0.3% from previous close.

Against Pound Sterling, the dollar strengthened to 1.3224, from previous close of 1.3337.

The euro was weak as well against the greenback, with the latter gaining about 0.2% at 1.1304, after having risen to 1.1343 earlier.

The Japanese Yen weakened to 111.69 a dollar, losing nearly 0.5% and the Swiss Franc was little changed against the greenback.

Against the Canadian Loonie, the dollar was rising 0.18%, and against the Aussie, it was up nearly 0.4%.

On the trade front, a report from Bloomberg said a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pushed back.

Citing three people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said the meeting to sign an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war won't occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest.

The report from Bloomberg comes after Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he is in "no rush" to complete a trade deal with China.

In U.S. economic news, a report from the Labor Department showed U.S. import and export prices both rose by more than anticipated in the month of February.

The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.6% in February after inching up by a revised 0.1% in January. Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month.

The report said export prices also increased by 0.6% in February after falling by a revised 0.5% in January. Export prices had been expected to tick up by 0.1% compared to the 0.6% decrease originally reported for the previous month.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits increased by more than expected in the week ended March 9th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

After reporting a notable rebound in new home sales over the two previous months, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing a substantial pullback in U.S. new home sales in the month of January.

The report said new home sales plunged by 6.9% to an annual rate of 607,000 in January from a revised rate of 652,000 in December.

Economists had expected new home sales to edge down to a rate of 620,000 from the 621,000 originally reported for the previous month.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Higher Again

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices edged higher on Thursday, extending gains to a fourth successive session, riding on recent data that showed a drop in U.S. crude inventories last week.

Ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC as well as the U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran also offered some support.

However, uncertainty about a U.S.-China trade deal before the end of this month limited oil's uptick.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended up $0.35, or 0.6%, at $58.61 a barrel, a fresh high since mid-November.

On Wednesday, crude oil futures for April ended up $1.39, or 2.4%, at $58.26 a barrel, the highest settlement in four months.

The Energy Information Administration report on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels in the week to March 8.

Earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute reported that U.S. crude stocks had fallen in the previous week.

The OPEC-led output cuts since the start of the year and Saudi Arabia's decision to reduce crude exports are expected to tighten global crude supply and prop up prices.

In Venezuela, oil production and exports have been disrupted by a political and economic crisis that has caused massive blackouts and supply shortages.

On the trade front, a report from Bloomberg said a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has been pushed back.

Citing three people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg said the meeting to sign an agreement to end the U.S.-China trade war won't occur this month and is more likely to happen in April at the earliest.

The report from Bloomberg comes after Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he is in "no rush" to complete a trade deal with China.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower As Dollar Rebounds

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures declined sharply on Thursday, giving up a substantial part of the gains they had recorded in the past couple of sessions, as the U.S. dollar rebounded from recent losses and political concerns eased after the UK lawmakers voted against a no-deal Brexit.

The dollar displayed strength against most major currencies, rebounding from recent weakness. The dollar index gained about 0.3%.

Gold futures for April ended down $14.20, or 1.1%, at $1,295.10 an ounce.

On Wednesday, gold futures ended up $11.20, or 0.9%, at $1,309.30 an ounce, the contract's first close about the $1,300 mark in about two weeks.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.285, at $15.171 an ounce, while Copper futures for May ended at $2.8915 per pound, down $0.0440 from previous close.

In economic news, a report from the Labor Department showed U.S. import and export prices both rose by more than anticipated in the month of February.

The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.6% in February after inching up by a revised 0.1% in January. Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3% compared to the 0.5% drop originally reported for the previous month.

The report said export prices also increased by 0.6% in February after falling by a revised 0.5% in January. Export prices had been expected to tick up by 0.1% compared to the 0.6% decrease originally reported for the previous month.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits increased by more than expected in the week ended March 9th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 229,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 223,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 225,000.

After reporting a notable rebound in new home sales over the two previous months, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing a substantial pullback in U.S. new home sales in the month of January.

Meanwhile, a report from the Commerce Department said new home sales plunged by 6.9% to an annual rate of 607,000 in January from a revised rate of 652,000 in December.

Economists had expected new home sales to edge down to a rate of 620,000 from the 621,000 originally reported for the previous month.

Key data from China today proved to be a mixed bag.

Growth in China's industrial output fell to a 17-year low in the first two months of the year, but retail sales and fixed asset investment data topped forecasts, leaving investors wondering about the impact of tariffs.


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Treasuries Show Modest Move To The Downside

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session slightly lower, treasuries showed another modest move to the downside during trading on Thursday.

Bond prices climbed off the lows hit in mid-day trading but still ended the session in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moved opposite of its price, rose by 1.9 basis points to 2.630 percent.

The modest weakness among treasuries came as traders kept an eye on Brexit developments, with members of parliament voting in favor of delaying Brexit after they rejected the idea of leaving the European Union without a deal.

Traders seemed to shrug off a Commerce Department report showing a substantial pullback in new home sales in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said new home sales plunged by 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 607,000 in January from a revised rate of 652,000 in December.

Economists had expected new home sales to edge down to a rate of 620,000 from the 621,000 originally reported for the previous month.

The Labor Department also released a report showing first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits increased by more than expected in the week ended March 9th.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 229,000, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 223,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 225,000.

A separate report released by the Labor Department showed U.S. import and export prices both rose by more than anticipated in the month of February.

The Labor Department said import prices climbed by 0.6 percent in February after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in January.

Economists had expected import prices to rise by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.5 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.

The report said export prices also increased by 0.6 percent in February after falling by a revised 0.5 percent in January.

Export prices had been expected to tick up by 0.1 percent compared to the 0.6 percent decrease originally reported for the previous month.

Trading on Friday may be impacted by another batch of U.S. economic data, including reports on New York-area manufacturing activity, industrial production, and consumer sentiment.


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Analysis of Gold for March 14, 2019

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold has been trading downwards. After the price reached our first target at $1.311.00, sellers came into the market and the momentum changed from bullish to bearish.

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Resistance at the price of $1.311.00 held successfully, which caused to sellers to start selling. We found that bearish divergence on the the Stochastic oscillator H4 time – frame, which is another sign of the weakness. Resistance level is seen at the price of $1.311.00 and support levels at $1.290.00 and $1.280.95.

Trading recommendation: We closed our long position yesterday on Gold at $1.311.00 with a decent profit. Now, we are neutral to bearish but we are awaiting potential bearish flag on the H1 time – frame, to establish sell positions.

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March 14, 2019: EUR/USD Intraday technical levels and trade recommendations.

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the depicted supply zone) where bearish rejection was anticipated.

However, negative fundamental data from US could push the EUR/USD pair for a temporary bullish breakout above 1.1315 before evident bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.1335 earlier Today.

This brought the EURUSD Pair again towards 1.1300 within the depicted supply zone.

Bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1270 (38.2% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick bearish retraction towards 1.1160 again where the lower limit of the movement channel shall be tested again.

On the other hand, another bullish breakout above 1.1330 will probably enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1370 and 1.1390.

Trade recommendations :

Risky traders should wait for a bearish H4. candlestick closure below 1.1275 as a valid SELL signal.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1234 and 1.1177. SL to be located above 1.1350

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EUR/USD analysis for March 14, 2019

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/USD has been trading lower. The price tested the level of 1.1294.

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After few days of the upward movement on the EUR/USD pair, buyers became overbought and the sellers started with the distribution process. According to the H4 time – frame, we found a breakout of the 4-day upward channel, which is a sign that there is potential for the downside movement. We also found a failed test of the high at the price of 1.1338, which is a sign of weakness. The Keltner channel turned bearish, which is another indication of the changing in trend behavior from bullish to bearish. Support levels are seen at 1.1277, 1.1248 and at 1.1180.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on EUR from 1.1300 and with main target at 1.1180. Protective stop is placed at 1.1345.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Ireland Inflation Slows In February

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Ireland's consumer price inflation slowed marginally in February, after remaining steady in the previous month, data from the Central Statistics Office showed on Thursday.

The consumer price inflation fell to 0.6 percent in February from 0.7 percent in December and January. Inflation was 0.6 percent in November.

The biggest increases was in price of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels by 4.0 percent followed by restaurants and hotels rose 3.6 percent.

Meanwhile, furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance declined by 3.7 percent and communications fell by 1.9 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.8 percent in February, reversing a 0.7 percent decline in the previous month.

Inflation based on the harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, which is meant for EU comparison, slowed to 0.7 percent annually in February from 0.8 percent in each of the previous three months. Compared to the previous month, the HICP rose 0.8 percent after a 0.7 percent decline in January.


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Finland Inflation Rises In February

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Finland's consumer price inflation rose to the highest in three months in February, data from Statistics Finland showed on Thursday.

The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent year-on-year in January, following a 1.1 percent rise in January. In the same period last year, inflation was 0.6 percent.

In November, inflation recorded a 1.3 percent rise.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.5 percent in February after a 0.4 percent decline in January. The increase was the first in four months.

The EU measure of harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP, rose to 1.3 percent annually in February from 1.2 percent in January. In December, inflation was 1.3 percent.

On a monthly basis, the HICP rose 0.6 percent in February.


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U.S. New Home Sales Pull Back Much More Than Expected In January

Trading 14 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting a notable rebound in new home sales over the two previous months, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing a substantial pullback in U.S. new home sales in the month of January.

The Commerce Department said new home sales plunged by 6.9 percent to an annual rate of 607,000 in January from a revised rate of 652,000 in December.

Economists had expected new home sales to edge down to a rate of 620,000 from the 621,000 originally reported for the previous month.

The report showed a steep drop in new home sales in the Midwest, which plummeted by 28.6 percent, while new home sales in the South and Northeast slumped by 15.1 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, the Commerce Department said new home sales in the West surged up by 27.8 percent during the month.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January was $317,200, down 0.6 percent from $319,100 in December and down 3.8 percent from $329,600 a year ago.

The report also said the estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 336,000, representing 6.6 months of supply at the current sales rate.

Compared to the same month a year ago, the annual rate of new home sales in January was down by 4.1 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com