Bulgaria Inflation Rises For Second Month

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Bulgaria's consumer price inflation rose for a second consecutive month in February, figures from the National Statistical Institute showed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index rose 3.2 percent year-on-year in February after a 3.0 percent rise in January. In December, inflation had fallen to 2.7 percent from 3.1 percent.

In February, prices of recreation and culture grew the most, by 6.1 percent. In contrast, prices of clothing and footwear declined 2 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices registered 0.5 percent rise in February, following a 0.6 percent rise in the previous month.


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*U.S. Construction Spending Jumps 1.3% In January

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Construction Spending Jumps 1.3% In January


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EURUSD: Good data helps euro keep bullish momentum

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The European currency returned to yesterday's highs after good data indicating that industrial production in the euro zone rose more than expected in January of this year.

This is a good signal that the eurozone economy, although with difficulty, overcomes the recession.

EUR

According to a report by the EU statistics agency Eurostat, industrial production in January increased by 1.4% compared with December 2018. Economists predicted that growth will be 1%. However, compared with January 2018, industrial production decreased by 1.1%.

As noted in the report, the main contribution to the result was made by Spain, where industrial production grew by 3.6%.

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The data on the US economy, expectedly, did not bring the necessary result and failed to affect the current upward correction in the EURUSD pair.

Although producer prices in the US rose in February, the data point to still moderate basic inflationary pressure.

According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the US PPI final demand index in February 2019 increased by only 0.1% compared with the previous month. The base index, which does not take into account volatile categories such as food and energy, also increased by 0.1% compared with January. Economists had forecast that the overall and basic PPI indices would show a 0.2% increase. Compared with the same period of the previous year, the index rose in February by 1.9%. The base index increased by 2.5%.

A good sign of a healthy economy is the demand for durable goods. In the US, growth is observed for the third month in a row. According to the US Department of Commerce, orders for durable goods in January rose by 0.4% compared with the previous month. Economists had expected orders to decline, by contrast, by 0.6%.

Despite the growth, it is worth noting that the main weight in orders was played by civil aircraft, where the increase was almost 16.0%. Excluding transport equipment, orders decreased by 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged compared with the morning forecast.

Buyers are focused on growth above resistance 1.1305. However, all attempts in the morning were unsuccessful. The return to support level of 1.1270 will increase the pressure on risky assets, which will lead to a sale to the area of 1.1235 and 1.1210 lows. The same signal to sell will be the unsuccessful fixing of EURUSD above the resistance of 1.1305, which will increase the pressure on the euro. In case of further growth along the trend, the target for buyers will be the level of 1.1340.

GBP

Speech by the Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom helped the pound to continue to grow. Philip Hammond said that a cloud of uncertainty hung over the economy, but the situation with the finances of the public sector continues to improve. In his opinion, a UK exit from the EU without a deal would mean a smaller and less prosperous economy.

According to the forecasts of the Minister of Finance, the GDP for 2019 will be at the level of 1.2% against the previous estimate of 1.6%. Hammond also noted the likely increase in inflation, as the economy is close to full load.

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EUR / USD: is the dollar not so strong, or is the euro still not strong enough?

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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The currency pair EUR / USD was able to attract buyers near the mark of 1.1280 and is attempting to recover to 1.13.

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It should be recognized that, at present, the euro is receiving support mainly due to expectations regarding the postponement of Brexit, since the eurozone also has something to lose if there is an unregulated exit of the UK from the EU.

At the same time, the US currency was under pressure due to the release of weak data on inflation in the US for February, which was published yesterday, and also because of the decline in yield of treasuries.

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According to a number of analysts, despite all the negative, it is premature to talk about a trend reversal towards strengthening the greenback, since the case of its main competitor, the euro, is far from the best.

Fundamental factors still play against the single European currency. While the ECB announces its intention to launch new monetary incentives and keep the interest rate unchanged, at least until the end of this year, the Fed is still withdrawing dollar liquidity from the system, and all statements by the regulator about the termination of the balance normalization program in practice remain words.

It is not excluded that the stimulating policy of the European Central Bank contributes to the weakening of the euro to a greater extent than the pause in the process of raising interest rates in the United States justifies the reduction of the "American".

"According to our estimates, in the short term, the EUR / USD pair may fall below the level of 1.12, after which it stabilizes in the medium-term horizon in the region of 1.12-1.16. In the next six months, the pair is unlikely to break through the upper limit of this range, and any attempts to do this will most likely be associated with an improvement in the economic situation in China," noted Danske Bank experts.

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U.S. Producer Prices Show Slight Uptick In February

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

With a rebound in energy prices partly offset by a drop in food prices, the Labor Department released a report on Wednesday showing a modest increase in U.S. producer prices in the month of February.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in February after edging down by 0.1 percent in January. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.2 percent.

The uptick in producer prices came amid a notable rebound in energy prices, which surged up by 1.8 percent in February after plunging by 3.8 percent in January.

On the other hand, the report said food prices fell by 0.3 percent in February, extending the 1.7 percent slump in the previous month.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices also ticked up by 0.1 percent in February after climbing by 0.3 percent in the previous month. Core prices were also expected to increase by 0.2 percent.

The Labor Department said prices for final demand services were unchanged in February after rising by 0.3 percent in January.

The unchanged reading came as a 0.4 percent drop in prices for trade services and a 1.3 percent plunge in prices for transportation and warehousing services was offset by a 0.3 percent increase in prices for other services.

Compared to the same month a year ago, producer prices were up by 2.3 percent in February, reflecting a slowdown from the 2.5 percent increase in January.

The annual rate of growth in core producer prices also slowed to 2.5 percent in February from 2.6 percent in January.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing a modest increase in consumer prices in the month of February.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in February after coming in unchanged for three straight months. The uptick in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1 percent in February after rising by 0.2 percent in January. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent increase in prices.

The report also said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.5 percent in February from 1.6 percent in November, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth edged down to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent.


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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Increase In January

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

New orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly increased in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The report said durable goods orders climbed by 0.4 percent in January after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.3 percent in December.

Economists had expected durable goods orders to drop by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.2 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

The unexpected increase in durable goods orders was largely due to a continued surge in orders for transportation equipment, which jumped by 1.2 percent in January after surging up by 3.1 percent in December.

Orders for non-defense aircraft and parts led the way higher once again, soaring by 15.9 percent in January after spiking by 35.7 percent in December.

However, aircraft orders could nosedive in the comings months as aerospace giant Boeing (BA) deals with the second crash of one of its 737 Max 8 jets in less than six months.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.1 percent in January after rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in December.

Ex-transportation orders had been expected to inch up by 0.1 percent, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Notable decreases in orders for primary metals and computers and electronic products more than offset a jump in orders for machinery.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched indicator of business spending, climbed by 0.8 percent in January after slumping by 0.9 percent in December.

"The rebound in underlying capital goods orders in January is still consistent with a slowdown in business equipment investment growth in the first quarter, although it suggests that slowdown will not be as sharp as signaled by some of the incoming survey evidence," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

The report also showed shipments of durable goods fell by 0.5 percent in January after rising by 0.7 percent in December.


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Eurozone Industrial Production Rebounds In January

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone's industrial production grew more-than-expected in January after declining in the previous two months, but the outlook remains uncertain amid worries of slowing global demand.

Industrial production rose 1.4 percent from December, when it fell 0.9 percent, figures from the statistical office showed on Wednesday. Economists had forecast a 1 percent increase.

Growth was driven by a 2.4 percent surge in energy production, followed by a 2 percent climb in the output of non-durable consumer goods.

Capital goods output rose 0.9 percent, durable goods production grew 1.1 percent and manufacture of intermediate goods was 0.2 percent higher.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production decreased 1.1 percent after a 4.2 percent slump in December. Economists had forecast a 2.10 percent fall.

"With Brexit and the US-China trade deal coming down to the wire, largely diverging production impacts can be expected with especially a 'no-deal' Brexit causing significant Eurozone production disruption," ING economist Bert Colijn said.

"The outlook for industry, therefore, remains clouded by uncertainty."


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Croatia Retail Sales Growth Rises In January

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Croatia's retail sales growth rose in January, after slowing in the previous month, data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday.

Retail sales in volume terms rose a working day adjusted 4.3 percent year-on-year in January, following a 4.0 percent rise in December. In November, the sales went up 5.8 percent.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco increased by 4.7 percent and those of non-food products except of automotive fuels and lubricants rose by 4.4 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, retail sales grew by 1.0 percent in January, after a 0.6 percent decline in the previous month.


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U.S. Producer Prices Inch Up Slightly Less Than Expected In February

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

With a rebound in energy prices partly offset by a drop in food prices, the Labor Department released a report on Wednesday showing a modest increase in U.S. producer prices in the month of February.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand inched up by 0.1 percent in February after edging down by 0.1 percent in January. Economists had expected prices to rise by 0.2 percent.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices also ticked up by 0.1 percent in February after climbing by 0.3 percent in the previous months. Core prices were also expected to increase by 0.2 percent.


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U.S. Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rise 0.4% In January

Trading 13 mar 2019 Commentaire »

New orders for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly increased in the month of January, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday.

The report said durable goods orders climbed by 0.4 percent in January after spiking by an upwardly revised 1.3 percent in December.

Economists had expected durable goods orders to drop by 0.5 percent compared to the 1.2 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

However, excluding a continued surge in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.1 percent in January after rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in December.

Ex-transportation orders had been expected to inch up by 0.1 percent, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.


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