EUR / USD: plan for the US session on March 12. Bulls still resist

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EURUSD you need:

Weak inflation in the US helped the European currency to remain at the levels reached in the morning. At the moment, bulls need a breakdown with consolidation above the resistance of 1.1288, which will increase demand and lead to a test of new highs 1.1317 and 1.1343, with a complete breakdown of the downward technetium formed last week. In the case of EUR / USD decline in the second half of the day, it is best to look at long positions after the support test of 1.1252 or at a rebound from a minimum of 1.1225.

To open short positions on EURUSD you need:

Euro sellers made the expected pressure attempt, but weak data on the American economy crossed their plans. At the moment, bears urgently need a false breakdown in the resistance area of 1.1288, which will be a signal to open short positions in order to reduce in the area of a minimum of 1.1252, where I recommend fixing the profits. With a scenario of further growth of the euro above 1.1288, short positions can be returned to the rebound from resistance 1.1317.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade remains above the 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market, with the advantage of buyers.

Bollinger bands

A break of the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1255 will lead to a decrease in EUR / USD.

V264oKib3sB1hJ5mqmWuydTFUp436ruIkYGiRyBv

Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% In February, In Line With Estimates

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting no change in consumer prices over the past few months, the Labor Department released a report on Tuesday showing a modest increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of February.

The report said the consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in February after coming in unchanged for three straight months. The uptick in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

The increase in consumer prices was partly due to a rebound in gasoline prices, which surged up by 1.5 percent in February after plunging by 5.5 percent in January.

The jump in gasoline prices contributed to a 0.4 percent rebound in energy prices, which matched the increase in food prices.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1 percent in February after rising by 0.2 percent in January. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent increase in prices.

The uptick in core prices reflected a continued increase in prices for shelter as well as higher prices for personal care, apparel, and education.

Decreases in prices recreation, medical care, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles limited the upside for core prices.

The report also said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.5 percent in February from 1.6 percent in November, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth edged down to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent.

With consumer price growth slowing, Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "The Fed would appear to be justified in supporting the real economy by being patient and leaving interest rates on hold for a potentially extended period."

On Wednesday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release a separate report on producer price inflation in the month of February.

Producer prices are expected to rise by 0.2 percent in February after climbing by 0.3 percent in January, while core producer prices are expected to tick up by 0.2 percent after slipping by 0.1 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK January Growth Beats Forecast, But Pace Remains Weak

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The UK economy expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in January, supported by growth in all main sectors such as manufacturing, services and constructions, but the pace of growth was lackluster amid the lingering Brexit uncertainty. Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent month-on-month in January after a 0.40 percent decline in December, preliminary figures from the Office for National Statistics showed on Tuesday. Economists had expected a 0.20 percent increase. In November, GDP grew 0.2 percent monthly.

On a 3-month-on-3-month basis, GDP rose 0.20 percent in January, which was in line with economists' expectations. "Across the latest three months, growth remained weak with falls in manufacture of metal products, cars and construction repair work all dampening economic growth. These were offset by strong performances in wholesale, IT and health services," ONS Head of GDP Rob Kent-Smith said. "This sluggish growth came despite the economy bouncing back from a weak December."

Industrial production rose 0.6 percent from December, when it fell 0.5 percent. Economists were looking for a 0.20 percent growth. Manufacturing output grew 0.8 percent after a 0.7 percent decline in December. Economists had expected a 0.20 percent increase. The latest rise was the first since June 2018, and was mainly due to a surge in pharmaceuticals output.

Services output grew 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent fall in the previous month. Economists had expected a 0.20 percent gain. Construction rose 2.8 percent, reversing a similar size fall in December. Economists had forecast a 0.80 percent increase. Separately, the ONS reported that the visible trade deficit in January widened to GBP 13.08 billion from GBP 10.89 billion a year ago. In December, the shortfall was GBP 12.68 billion. Economists had forecast a GBP 12.2 billion deficit. "With the economy seemingly soft in the first quarter, we believe that the Bank of England is unlikely to hike interest rates before November," the EY ITEM Club said. "This forecast assumes that the UK ultimately leaves the EU with a "deal" and that there is some pick-up in UK growth thereafter as uncertainties ease."

Even then, there is a genuine chance now that the Bank of England will sit tight on interest rates throughout 2019 - especially if Brexit is delayed, the think tank added.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Is it worth trading pounds?

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c87b4504b60d.jpg

Brexit, Brexit, Brexit. This week, there is nothing more important than a vote on the UK leaving the EU on Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe on Thursday. It is expected that it will take place after the debate.

There are two voting results:

  • Parliament supports the draft deal
  • Parliament rejects the draft deal

The first item contributes to a 1-2% rally but for the pound, it will not be easy to hold positions, as investors will pay attention to the consequences of the exit and the difficulties that England will face when negotiating from an isolated space.

The second point is the worst scenario for sterling, threatening it with a collapse of up to 25%, according to Mark Carney. Perhaps this will not happen in an instant, but the mere fact of Brexit without a deal will be enough to drop the GBPUSD pair down by 2-4%.

After today's vote, the focus will shift to the next — on Thursday, the question of extending Article 50 will be decided.

Is it necessary to keep the deal on the eve of the vote?

The market reacts to news and rumors about Brexit very sharply. Hyper volatile Monday led to a stronger pound. Within just one day, the GBPUSD pair was higher than 250 points, the local maximum was $ 1.3189. Today, during the Asian session, growth continued, buyers did not reach the resistance level of $ 1.33. Later, on Tuesday, the pound exchange rate collapsed after reports appeared that British Attorney General Geoffrey Cox spoke out against the new draft of the deal. May's proposal retains the same legal risks associated with the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, he noted. The official believes the project is not bad, but because of the risks involved, Eurosceptics are more likely to vote against it.

The rapid fall of the pound probably indicates that the negative attitude to the deal of such an authoritative person as Mr. Cox reduces the chances of its approval by the British parliamentarians today.

XPAbQdTsXDeewN5w0SQqoXGs-5KO2sUKZ-NFm5Rb

Whatever happens and whatever the result of the vote, the pound will be in a fever, more precisely, it is already being thrown from side to side. Given the content of this week's British political agenda, it's not surprising that traders decided to try their luck by trading in pounds.

It is worth noting that the dollar rate today reacted vividly to the soft data on inflation in the United States, allowing the Fed to extend the pause in the process of tightening policy. The index rose in February by 0.2% versus January and by 1.5% in annual terms against the expected 0.2% and 1.6%, respectively. The US currency falls to session lows, the dollar index is losing 0.1%.

The key role for the US dollar today will be played by a vote in the British Parliament. The results will direct sterling against greenbacks, which will affect the dollar quotes against other currencies.

htgkqfhTi5bMrKJRtBLIdNGtfogvtAKVC76UlSyY

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

March 12, 2019 : Intraday bullish scenario for the EUR/USD pair.

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c87b66f95a02.jpg

On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the current bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where some limited bearish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2%) is mandatory to enhance a further bullish advance towards 1.1300-1.1320 (the depicted supply zone) where bearish positions may be considered upon valid price action.

However, today's negative fundamental data from the US may push the EUR/USD pair for a bullish breakout above 1.1320 that leads directly towards 1.1370-1.1400 (next supply zone).

On the other hand, the earlier bearish breakout below the price level of 1.1235 (23.6% Fibonacci) will probably liberate a quick decline towards 1.1160 again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 12, 2019

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $3.847 but with the successful rejection of the key resistance at the price of $3.870, which is a sign that buying looks risky.

analytics5c87b6a97a880.png

According to the H4 time frame, we found that there is a potential end of the upward correction (complex zig-zag), which is a sign that the downward movement is expected in the next period. Most recently, there has been a breakout of the upward channel and the bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign that sellers took control from buyers. Besides, the test of the 20 EMA (resistance) is going on. This is a sign that buying looks risky. Support levels are seen at $3.637 and $3.524. The key resistance level is seen at $3.925.

Trading recommendation: We are bearish on BTC from $3.840 with targets at $3.637 and $3.524. Protective stop is placed at $3.925.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise In Line With Estimates In February

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting no change in consumer prices over the past few months, the Labor Department released a report on Tuesday showing a modest increase in U.S. consumer prices in the month of February.

The report said the consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in February after coming in unchanged for three straight months. The uptick in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices inched up by 0.1 percent in February after rising by 0.2 percent in January. Economists had expected another 0.2 percent increase in prices.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Drops Following U.S. CPI

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Following the release of U.S. inflation for February at 8:30 am ET Tuesday, the greenback declined against its major counterparts.

The greenback was trading at 111.22 against the yen, 1.0088 against the franc, 1.1274 against the euro and 1.3098 against the pound around 8:31 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% In February, Core Prices Inch Up 0.1%

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Consumer Prices Rise 0.2% In February, Core Prices Inch Up 0.1%


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Mixed Ahead Of U.S. CPI

Trading 12 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. inflation for February is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET Tuesday. The CPI is forecast to rise 0.2 percent on a monthly basis, after a flat reading in the previous month.

Ahead of the data, the greenback traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the greenback rose against the pound and the euro, it fell against the yen. Against the franc, it held steady.

The greenback was worth 111.25 against the yen, 1.0093 against the franc, 1.1265 against the euro and 1.3085 against the pound as of 8:25 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com