Dollar Exhibit Mixed Trend Against Major Currencies

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar displayed weakness against some of its peers on Monday, although fairly encouraging retail sales data supported and limited its decline.

Euro gained on reports that the British Prime Minister was heading to the European Parliament in Strasboug, France for some last-minute talks with EU officials on Brexit deal.

British lawmakers are scheduled to vote on May's Brexit deal on Tuesday. The dollar was down by about 1% at 1.3145 a Sterling after having dropped to 1.3171 earlier.

Against the Euro, the dollar traded weak, with the former gaining in strength on reports that suggested Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank were in talks about a merger.

Euro was also supported by comments by European Central Bank board member Benoit Coeure that the central bank's fresh stimulus measures are an adjustment to a new economic reality rather than reversing the course.

The euro was quoting at $1.244, after swinging between $1.1223 and $1.1259.

Against the Yen, the dollar was up marginally at 111.22. The yen had earlier strengthened to 110.88.

The Aussie was gaining about 0.33% against the Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair trading at 0.7068.

Against Swiss Franc, the dollar was gaining about 0.3%, while against the Loonie it was down 0.1%.

On the economic front, data released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected uptick in U.S. retail sales in January.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.2% in January after tumbling by a revised 1.6% in December.

Economists had expected retail sales to come in unchanged compared to the 1.2% slump originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a steep drop in auto sales, retail sales climbed by 0.9% in January after plummeting by a revised 2.1% in December.

Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the 1.8% plunge originally reported for the previous month.

According to another data from the Commerce Department, business inventories in the U.S. increased by 0.6% in the month of December, in line with expectations.

Wholesale and retail inventories jumped by 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, while manufacturing inventories were unchanged.


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Oil Futures End Notably Higher As Saudi Stays Firm On Supply Cuts

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Monday, lifted by reports that Saudi Arabia is planning to extend output cuts.

The notable drop in U.S. oil rig-count last week and the ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela supported oil's uptick.

West Texas Intermediate Crude futures for April ended up $0.72, or 1.3%, at $56.79 a barrel.

On Friday, crude oil futures for April ended down $0.59, or 1%, at $56.07 a barrel on demand growth concerns after data showed a weak jobs growth in the U.S. and a sharp plunge in Chinese exports.

Brent Crude futures for May moved up $0.84, or 1.3%, to $66.58 a barrel, extending previous week's 1% rise.

The Bloomberg reported, citing a Saudi official as saying that the country will supply its clients with significantly less oil than they requested in April, extending deeper-than-agreed production cuts into a second month, aiming to prevent a supply glut in the market.

According to reports, Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih said that it would be too early to change a production curb pact agreed by OPEC and its allies, before June.

Next week, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee is scheduled to meet in Azerbaijan to review compliance with output reductions, and in mid April, the OPEC is scheduled to meet to take stock of the situation. Another gathering of OPEC and allies is scheduled for June 25-26.


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Gold Futures Settle Lower As Stocks Rise On Retail Sales Data

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices declined on Monday as traders went for equities, buoyed by encouraging U.S. retail sales and business inventories data.

The dollar, considered another safe haven, was weak as well. The dollar index dropped to 97.16 before edging up to 97.24, still down by about 0.15% from previous close.

Gold futures for April ended down $8.20, or 0.6%, at $1,291.10 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures for April ended up $13.20, or 1%, at $1,299.30 an ounce, as equities tumbled on weak economic data and uncertainty about trade talks and Brexit.

Silver futures for May ended down $0.075, at $15.274 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled up $0.0075, at $2.9010 per pound.

Data released by the Commerce Department showed an unexpected uptick in U.S. retail sales in January.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.2% in January after tumbling by a revised 1.6% in December.

Economists had expected retail sales to come in unchanged compared to the 1.2% slump originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a steep drop in auto sales, retail sales climbed by 0.9% in January after plummeting by a revised 2.1% in December.

Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.3% compared to the 1.8% plunge originally reported for the previous month.

According to another data from the Commerce Department, business inventories in the U.S. increased by 0.6% in the month of December, in line with expectations.

Wholesale and retail inventories jumped by 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively, while manufacturing inventories were unchanged.


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Treasuries Edge Lower After Recent Upward Move

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After trending higher over the past few sessions, treasuries showed a modest move back to the downside during trading on Monday.

Bond prices moved lower early in the session and remained stuck in negative territory throughout the session. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, edged up by 1.8 basis points to 2.643 percent.

The pullback by treasuries came following the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing an unexpected uptick in U.S. retail sales in January.

The Commerce Department said retail sales rose by 0.2 percent in January after tumbling by a revised 1.6 percent in December.

Economists had expected retail sales to come in unchanged compared to the 1.2 percent slump originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a steep drop in auto sales, retail sales climbed by 0.9 percent in January after plummeting by a revised 2.1 percent in December.

Ex-auto sales had been expected to increase by 0.3 percent compared to the 1.8 percent plunge originally reported for the previous month.

Closely watched core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, also jumped by 1.1 percent in January after plunging by 2.3 percent in December.

A separate Commerce Department reported showed business inventories increased in line with economist estimates in the month of December.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, which attracted slightly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.448 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56, while the ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to the Labor Department's closely watched report on consumer price inflation in the month of February.

Bond traders are also likely to keep an eye on the results of the Treasury's auction of $24 billion worth of ten-year notes.


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Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Slightly Below Average Demand

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

On Monday, the Treasury Department kicked off this week's series of long-term securities auctions with the sales of $38 billion worth of three-year notes, attracting slightly below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.448 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.56.

The Treasury also sold $38 billion worth of three-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 2.502 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.61.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $24 billion worth of ten-year notes on Tuesday and $16 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Wednesday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD intraday technical levels and trade recommendations for March 11, 2019

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market demonstrated obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430

That's why, the current bearish movement was seen towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where some limited bearish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th.

Bullish persistence above 1.1235 (Fibonacci 23.2%) is mandatory to enhance further advancement towards 1.1300-1.1330 (the depicted supply zone).

On the other hand, bearish breakout below this level (1.1235) may liberate a quick decline towards 1.1160 again.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Turkey's Recession First In A Decade

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Turkey's entered its first recession in a decade at the end of last year that saw the lira crash and trade tensions with the US rise amid political pressures on the central bank to keep interest rates low.

Gross domestic product shrunk a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.4 percent from the third quarter when it decreased a revised 1.6 percent. Two consecutive quarters of decline suggest a technical recession.

On a year-on-year basis, calendar adjusted GDP decreased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter after a 2.3 percent expansion in the previous three months.

The chain-linked GDP fell 3 percent year-on-year after a 1.8 percent increase in the previous quarter.

The full year growth in 2018 was 2.6 percent versus 7.4 percent in 2017.

The recession is bad news for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government which is set to contest municipal elections at the end of this month.

Household consumption sunk 8.9 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

"Domestic demand weakness is likely to linger as unemployment stays on the upwards trend and credit activity remains subdued, but having said all of that, recent momentum indicators on lending hint early signs of stabilisation," ING economist Muhammet Mercan said.


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Bank Of France Lowers Q1 Growth Estimate To 0.3%

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The Bank of France on Monday revised its growth estimate for the first three months of the year to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent predicted earlier.

The survey data from the bank showed that manufacturing business confidence improved to 101 in February from 99 in January.

The confidence indicator for the services sector was unchanged at 101 and that for construction was steady at 105.

Production rebounded mainly in IT products, chemicals and machinery and equipment in February and order books stabilized.

Manufacturers expect industrial activity to continue to growth at the same pace in March and services firms and constructors are also looking forward to sustained growth.


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U.S. Business Inventories Climb In Line With Estimates In December

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Business inventories in the U.S. increased in line with economist estimates in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Monday.

The report said business inventories climbed by 0.6 percent in December, while revised data showed inventories were unchanged in November.

Economists had expected inventories to increase by 0.6 percent compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Wholesale and retail inventories jumped by 1.1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, while manufacturing inventories were unchanged.

Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said business sales tumbled by 1.0 percent in December after falling by 0.6 percent in November.

Retail sales plunged by 1.8 percent, wholesale sales slumped by 1.0 percent and manufacturing sales dipped by 0.2 percent.

With inventories rising and sales falling, the total business inventories/sales ratio edged up to 1.38 in December from 1.36 in November.


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March 11, 2019 : GBPUSD demonstrating significant bullish recovery around its short-term uptrend line

Trading 11 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380.

This uptrend line managed to push the price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775.

Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 before the current bearish pullback was demonstrated towards the uptrend again.

A weekly gap pushed the pair slightly below the trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) . However, significant bullish recovery is being demonstrated today rendering the mentioned bearish gap as a false bearish breakout.

Bullish persistence above 1.3060 ( Fibonacci 61.8% ) is mandatory to pursue the bullish momentum towards 1.3130 and then 1.3190-1.3200 where the next Fibonacci levels are located.

Trade Recommendations :

The GBP/USD pair remains bullish as long as price is maintained above 1.3000 (61.8% Fibonacci level).

Target levels are projected towards 1.3130 then 1.3200. H1 candlestick closure below 1.2990 invalidates this bullish setup.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com