March 8, 2019 : EUR/USD is demonstrating a continuation bearish flag pattern.

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On November 13, the EUR/USDpair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Last week, significant bullish recovery has emerged on Tuesday. However, By the end of last week's consolidations on Thursday, the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1175. Moreover, a bearish flag pattern remains valid if the current bearish persistence below 1.1250 is maintained on daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

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March 8, 2019 : GBP/USD is retracing towards its newly-established Demand-Zone.

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 then 1.2800 where the previous bearish pullback was terminated.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 resulting in the recent bullish swing. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3150 which failed to offer enough bullish support.

That's why, further bearish decline took place towards the price levels of 1.3050-1.3000 where the depicted demand-zone is currently located.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-level (1.3050-1.3020) is mandatory to prevent further bearish decline.

On the other hand, any bearish breakdown below 1.3020 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the next prominent demand zone is located.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can consider the current bearish pullback around 1.3050 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3000. T/P levels to be located around 1.3140 and 1.3240 initially.

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Taiwan Inflation Rises In February

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Taiwan's consumer price inflation rose in February, mainly due to the Chinese New Year effects, the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics said on Friday.

The consumer price index rose 0.23 percent year-on-year in February, following a 0.18 percent rise in January. Economists had expected a 0.3 percent rise in inflation.

Excluding fruits, vegetables and energy, the core inflation was 0.30 percent in February.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.99 percent in February and the core CPI climbed 0.89 percent.

In the January-February period, inflation was 0.20 percent, while the core inflation was 0.41 percent.

Further, data showed that wholesale price inflation rose to 0.8 percent year-on-year in February from 0.54 percent in the previous month.

On a month-on-month basis, the wholesale prices rose 0.2 percent in February.


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Disappointing U.S. Jobs Data Drags Dollar Down

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar slipped against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, after a data showed that the economy created much fewer jobs than forecast in February, supporting hopes for a Fed rate hike pause in coming months.

Data from the Labor Department showed that employment in the U.S. showed only a slight increase in the month of February.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment edged up by 20,000 jobs in February after jumping by an upwardly revised 311,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 180,000 jobs compared to the spike of 304,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Despite the much weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent in February from 4.0 percent in January. The unemployment rate had been expected to dip to 3.9 percent.

The greenback dropped against its most major counterparts in the Asian session following the release of weak Chinese data for February.

The greenback declined to an 8-day low of 110.77 against the yen, from a high of 111.65 hit at 6:45 pm ET. If the greenback falls further, 109.00 is likely seen as its next support level.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan's gross domestic product gained a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2018.

That beat expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent following the 0.3 percent gain in the previous reading.

The greenback reversed from an early high of 1.0118 against the Swiss franc, falling to 1.0071. The greenback is seen finding support around the 0.99 level.

The greenback, having advanced to an 11-day high of 1.3052 against the pound at 7:30 am ET, reversed direction and dropped slightly to 1.3090. The next key support for the greenback is seen around the 1.32 level.

Following an advance to 1.1185 against the euro at 8:45 pm ET, the greenback reversed direction with the pair trading at 1.1241. The next possible support for the greenback is seen around the 1.15 region.

Preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that German factory orders sharply dropped in January at the fastest pace in seven months, defying expectations for further gains, mainly due to a slump in external demand.

Manufacturing orders decreased a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.6 percent month-on-month, while economists were looking for a modest 0.5 percent gain.

The greenback fell to a 3-day low of 0.6809 against the kiwi and a 2-day low of 1.3390 against the loonie, off its early highs of 0.6749 and 1.3466, respectively. The greenback is poised to challenge support around 0.70 against the kiwi and 1.32 against the loonie.

The greenback depreciated to 0.7051 against the aussie, after rising to a 2-month high of 0.7003 at 12:30 am ET. On the downside, 0.72 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.


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Taiwan Exports Fall For Fourth Month

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Taiwan's exports dropped for a fourth consecutive month in February and imports logged a double-digit decline, figures from the finance ministry showed on Friday.

Merchandise exports declined 8.8 percent year-on-year following a 0.3 percent fall in January.

Imports dropped 19.7 percent year-on-year in February after a 6.8 percent rise in the previous month.

The trade surplus registered a 59.7 percent rise from a year ago to US$4.93 billion.

Among leading export commodities, shipments of parts of electronic product, base metals and articles of base metal, machinery, plastics and rubber and articles declined.

In contrast, exports of information, communication and audio-video products increased.

Imports of parts of electronic product, mineral products, chemicals, base metals and articles of base metal fell in February.

Region-wise, exports to Mainland China & Hong Kong, ASEAN, Japan and Europe declined, while those to the USA grew.

Imports from Mainland China & Hong Kong, ASEAN, Japan, U.S.A. and Middle East declined.

In the January-February period, exports decreased 4.1 percent from a year ago and imports fell 4.8 percent.


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Finland Industrial Production Slows In January

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Finland's industrial production slowed in January, after rising in the previous month, figures from Statistics Finland showed on Friday.

Industrial production edged up a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent month-on-month in January, following a 1.4 percent rise in December.

Production rose the most in the mining and quarrying sector, up by 12.7 percent, and output in the electrical and electronic industry rose by 4.1 percent.

The biggest decline was in the production of chemical industry by 3.3 percent in January.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production climbed on a working day and seasonally adjusted 2.6 percent in January.


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U.S. Housing Starts Rebound Much More Than Expected In January

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After reporting a steep drop in new residential construction in the U.S. in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing housing starts rebounded by much more than anticipated in the month of January.

The report said housing starts soared by 18.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.230 million in January after plunging by 14.0 percent to a revised rate of 1.037 million in December.

Economists had expected housing starts to jump by 11 percent to a rate of 1.197 million from the 1.078 million originally reported for the previous month.

Single-family housing stars surged up by 25.1 percent to a rate of 926,000 in January, while multi-family starts climbed by 2.4 percent to a rate of 304,000.

The Commerce Department said building permits also rose by 1.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.345 million in January after inching up by 0.3 percent to 1.326 million in December.

Building permits, an indicator of future housing demand, had been expected to drop by 2.8 percent to a rate of 1.289 million.

A 7.2 percent jump in multi-family permits to a rate of 533,000 more than offset a 2.1 percent drop in single family permits to a rate of 812,000.


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Italy Industrial Production Falls Less Than Forecast

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Italy's industrial production declined for a third straight month in January, but at a slower pace, figures from the statistical office ISTAT showed on Friday.

Industrial production fell 0.8 percent year-on-year in January, less than 5.5 percent decline in December. Economists had expected a 3.0 percent fall in production.

In November, production dropped 2.6 percent.

The latest decline was the weakest since August, when output dropped at the same pace.

The biggest increase was in energy by 11.7 percent, while production of the intermediate goods, consumer goods and capital goods declined by 3.3 percent, 2.7 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively, in January.

On a month-on-month basis, industrial production rose 1.7 percent in January after a 0.7 percent fall in December and a 1.7 percent slump in November.


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U.S. Job Growth Nearly Grinds To A Halt In February

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Employment in the U.S. showed only a slight increase in the month of February, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Friday.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment edged up by 20,000 jobs in February after jumping by an upwardly revised 311,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to increase by about 180,000 jobs compared to the spike of 304,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The much weaker than expected job growth in February represented the worst month since the loss of 18,000 jobs in September of 2017, when employment was impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

The uptick in employment came as continued increases in professional and business services, healthcare, and wholesale trade jobs were partly offset by the loss of construction, retail and government jobs.

"The sharp slowdown in payroll employment growth in February provides further evidence that economic growth has slowed in the first quarter," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics. "That adds weight to our view that the Fed will not be raising interest rates this year."

Despite the much weaker than expected job growth, the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8 percent in February from 4.0 percent in January. The unemployment rate had been expected to dip to 3.9 percent.

The decrease in the unemployment rate came as the labor force shrank by 45,000 people, while the household measure of employment increased by 255,000.

The much weaker than expected job growth also did not stop the annual rate of growth in average hourly employee earnings from accelerating to 3.4 percent in February from 3.1 percent in January.

"With productivity growth also picking up in recent quarters, however, that won't be enough to generate a pick-up in inflation," Pearce said.

He added, "That frees up the Fed to focus on the incoming data on economic activity, which increasingly reinforce officials' patient stance."


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German Factory Orders Drop Most In 7 Months

Trading 08 mar 2019 Commentaire »

German factory orders unexpectedly dropped sharply in January at the fastest pace in seven months, mainly due to a slump in external demand, suggesting that the biggest euro area economy is not out of the woods yet.

Manufacturing orders decreased a seasonally and calendar adjusted 2.6 percent month-on-month, preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Friday, while economists were looking for a modest 0.5 percent gain.

The latest fall in orders was the worst since a 3.6 percent slump in last June.

After considering major orders received subsequently, December's 1.6 percent decline in orders was revised to a 0.9 percent increase.

Excluding major orders, manufacturing orders fell 2.5 percent monthly in January.

With the latest decline in new orders, a sustained slowdown in the industry at the start of the year emerging, the Economy Ministry said.

Domestic orders decreased 1.2 percent and foreign orders fell 3.6 percent in January. Demand from the euro area shrunk 2.6 percent and bookings from other countries fell 4.2 percent.

Orders for intermediate goods dropped 1.1 percent and those for capital goods plunged 3.6 percent. Demand for consumer goods decreased 1.4 percent.

On a year-on-year basis, factory orders decreased 3.9 percent in January after a 4.5 percent decline in December, revised from 7 percent.

In the December to January period, factory orders dropped 0.5 percent from the previous three months.

"Despite weaker orders in January, production in the automotive sector is still expected to recover in the coming months," Commerzbank economists said.

"This is because orders are roughly back at the level before the WLTP problems, while production is still significantly lower."


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