Australia Construction Index Rises To 43.8 In February – AiG

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The construction sector in Australia continued to contract in February, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Thursday with a Performance of Construction Index score of 43.8.

That's up from 43.1 in January, although it remains well beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

In all, the sector has been in contraction for six straight months.

Individually, activity, employment, new orders, supplier deliveries and selling prices were all firmly in contraction. Input prices and average wages continued to expand, although at a slower rate.


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*Australia Performance Of Construction Index 43.8 In February – AiG

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Australia Performance Of Construction Index 43.8 In February - AiG


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Australia Trade Data On Tap For Thursday

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Australia is on Thursday scheduled to release January figures for trade balance and retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The trade balance is expected to show a surplus of A$2.90 billion, down from A$3.681 billion in December. Retail sales are tipped to rise 0.3 percent on month after sinking 0.4 percent in December.

Australia also will see February figures for the Performance of Construction Index from AiG; in January, the index score was 43.1.

Japan will see preliminary January results for its leading and coincident indexes. The leading index is tipped to see a score of 96.0, down from 97.5 in December. The coincident is pegged at 98.9, down from 101.8 a month earlier.

The Philippines will provide Q4 numbers for unemployment; in the three months prior, the jobless rate was 5.1 percent with a participation rate of 60.6 percent.


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Dollar Exhibits Mixed Trend Against Peers

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar swung between gains and losses against most of its key rivals on Wednesday, with traders reacting to a slew of economic data from across the globe and following news on Brexit, U.S.-China trade issues and Bank of Canada's rate decision.

The greenback was trading slightly lower against the Euro, at $1.1312, after weakening to a low of 1.1326 a unit of Euro earlier in the session. Earlier in the day, the dollar was hovering at 1.1287 against the euro.

Against the British Pound Sterling, the dollar was gaining about 0.06% at 1.3171.

The Canadian loonie dropped after the Bank of Canada left its interest rate unchanged and issued a weak outlook for the Canadian and global economy, citing trade disputes.

The Aussie declined sharply, losing nearly 0.8% against the U.S. dollar, weighed by somewhat disappointing fourth quarter GDP data.

The Japanese yen was stronger against the greenback, gaining about 0.12% at 111.79, after opening at 111.89.

Eurozone's construction activity improved in February, led by upturns in commercial and infrastructure activity and stronger expansion in housing activity, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Wednesday.

The Construction Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, rose to 52.6 in February from 50.6 in January.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book said economic activity continued to expand in late January and February.

The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts, said ten districts reported slight-to-moderate growth, although Philadelphia and St. Louis reported flat economic conditions.

The Fed noted the prolonged partial government shutdown led to slower economic activity in about half of the districts.

A report from payroll processor ADP showed U.S. private sector job growth slowed in February, increasing by 183,000 jobs, after soaring by an upwardly revised 300,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to climb by 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 213,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Data from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened by more than anticipated in December, as imports jumped and exports slumped.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion in December, nearly $2 million more than what was forecast, from a revised $50.3 billion in November.

The substantial monthly increase drove the U.S. trade deficit to its highest level since reaching $60.2 billion in October of 2008.

The trade deficit for 2018 was also the biggest since 2008, widening to $621.0 billion from $552.3 billion in 2017.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Lower On Inventory Data

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday, after data from U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a much larger than expected increase in crude inventories last week.

Worries about demand growth due to weak Chinese economic outlook weighed as well on crude oil prices. Output reduction by OPEC and its allies and talks of more aggressive cuts by Russia too impacted oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended down $0.34, or 0.6%, at $56.22 a barrel.

On Tuesday, crude oil futures for April down $0.03, at $56.56 a barrel.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration this morning showed that crude stockpiles in the U.S. were up by 7.07 million barrels in the week to March 1. That was up almost six times the expected increase.

A week earlier, oil stockpiles had dropped by 8.65 million barrels.

EIA report said gasoline inventories were down 4.23 million barrels last week, higher than the expected decline. Distillate stockpiles, including diesel, decreased by 2.39 million barrels, notably lower than the expected drop.

Late on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute released a report that said crude supplies in the U.S. increased by a much more than expected 7.3 million barrels in the week ended March 1. API also said that gasoline stockpiles fell by 391,000 barrels, while distillate inventories were down by 3.1 million barrels last week.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Co-Operation & Development (OECD) has cut forecasts for the global economy in 2019 and 2020, warning that trade disputes and uncertainty over Brexit would hit world commerce and businesses.

The OECD has now forecast that the world economy would grow 3.3% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020.


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Treasuries Move Higher Amid Geopolitical Concerns

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session roughly flat, treasuries showed a moderate move the upside during the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond prices pulled back off their best levels in afternoon trading but remained firmly positive. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, dropped 3 basis points to 2.692 percent.

Treasuries initially benefited from geopolitical concerns after a U.S. think tank said analysis of new satellite images of activity at a North Korean long-range rocket site suggests Pyongyang may be rapidly rebuilding the test facility that it pledged to dismantle.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies said the images were taken two days after the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ended without an agreement late last month.

The two leaders cut short their discussions after Kim's request for a full withdrawal of sanctions in return for the communist country's willingness to abandon nuclear weapons was rejected.

Treasuries saw further upside after a report from payroll processor ADP showed U.S. private sector job growth slowed in February after an upwardly revised spike in January.

ADP said private sector employment increased by 183,000 jobs in February after soaring by an upwardly revised 300,000 jobs in January.

Economists had expected employment to climb by 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 213,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

"The economy has throttled back and so too has job growth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "Job gains are still strong, but they have likely seen their high watermark for this expansion."

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit widened by more than anticipated in December, as imports jumped and exports slumped.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $59.8 billion in December from a revised $50.3 billion in November. Economists had expected the deficit to widen to $57.9 billion.

The substantial monthly increase drove the U.S. trade deficit to its highest level since reaching $60.2 billion in October of 2008.

The trade deficit for 2018 was also the biggest since 2008, widening to $621.0 billion from $552.3 billion in 2017 as Trump ramped up his trade war with China.

The release of the trade data comes amid lingering uncertainty about ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China and the potential for a long-term deal.

However, treasuries gave back some ground after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book said economic activity continued to expand in late January and February.

The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts, said ten districts reported slight-to-moderate growth, although Philadelphia and St. Louis reported flat economic conditions.

The Fed noted the prolonged partial government shutdown led to slower economic activity in about half of the districts.

Reports on weekly jobless claims and labor productivity and costs may attract some attention on Thursday, although trading activity is likely to be subdued ahead of the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday.


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BITCOIN Analysis for March 6, 2019

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin managed to push above $3,800 with an impulsive bullish momentum which turned a bit corrective after the bullish pressure. The price is currently starting to push higher having confluence from the dynamic levels which is expected to lead the price towards $4,000 in the coming days.

The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA and Kijun line as support while Chikou Span residing above the price line which indicates further upward pressure in the coming days. Moreover, after the break above the Kumo Cloud, it has gained mass quite well. The price is also expected to extend its climb higher after a retracement along the way. As the price remains above $3,800 with a daily close, further bullish pressure with a target towards $4000 area is expected.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600, 3,800

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 6, 2019

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

Last week, significant bullish recovery has emerged on Tuesday. However, on Thursday, the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection.

This indicated a high probability of bearish reversal towards 1.1300-1.1330 where the lower limit of the depicted movement channel is located.

Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A valid BUY entry can be offered around the current price levels of 1.1300-1.1330. T/P levels to be located around 1.1360 and 1.1420. S/L to be located below 1.1275.

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*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 7.1 Million Barrels In Week Ended 3/1

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Increase By 7.1 Million Barrels In Week Ended 3/1


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 6, 2019

Trading 06 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155.

Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 then 1.2800 within the previous H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 resulting in the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3150 and 1.3100 where the lower limit of the current Flag/channel pattern is located.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-level (1.3150) is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3150-1.3100 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3060 where the recent bullish breakout was initiated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can consider the current bearish pullback around 1.3150 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3090. T/P levels to be located around 1.3240 and 1.3317 initially.

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