*U.S. Personal Income Jumps 1.0% In December, Personal Spending Drops 0.5%

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Personal Income Jumps 1.0% In December, Personal Spending Drops 0.5%


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*Canadian Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Slowed To 0.1% In Q4

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Canadian Real Gross Domestic Product Growth Slowed To 0.1% In Q4


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*Canadian Real Gross Domestic Product Edged Down 0.1% In December

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Canadian Real Gross Domestic Product Edged Down 0.1% In December


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Dollar Steady Ahead Of U.S. Personal Income And Spending Data

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. personal income and spending data for December is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET Friday. The greenback held steady against its major opponents ahead of the data.

The greenback was worth 1.1380 against the euro, 111.86 against the yen, 1.3230 against the pound and 0.9885 against the franc as of 8:25 am ET.


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Loonie Falls Ahead Of Canada GDP Data

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

At 8:30 am ET Friday, Canada GDP data for December is due. Ahead of the data, the loonie fell against its major counterparts.

The loonie was worth 1.3179 against the greenback, 84.86 against the yen, 0.9358 against the aussie and 1.4998 against the euro as of 8:25 am ET.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for March 1, 2019

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel came to meet the pair.

Since February 20, the EUR/USD pair has been demonstrating weak bullish recovery with sideway consolidations around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270).

This week, significant bullish recovery has emerged on Tuesday. However, yesterday the pair has failed to fixate above 1.1400 with early signs of bearish rejection on the H4 chart.

This may indicate a high probability of a bearish reversal ONLY IF bearish breakdown below 1.1360 is achieved on H4 chart.

Please note that a bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A valid SELL entry can be offered around the price level of 1.1390. S/L to be located above 1.1425. T/P levels to be located around 1.1320 and 1.1240.

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Russia Factory Sector Stagnates In February

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Russia's manufacturing activity hit a five-month low close to stagnation in February as new order growth softened and inflationary pressures increased, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 50.1 in February from 50.9 in January. A PMI reading above 50 suggests growth in the sector.

New order growth was the slowest since September and exports orders decreased at the fastest pace since April 2017. Output prices rose at the fastest rate since March 2015 after VAT hike.

Meanwhile, business confidence was the second-highest since May 2013.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for March 1, 2019

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 (50% Fibonacci level) within the depicted H4 bearish channel.

On February 15, significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards 1.3155, 1.3240 and 1.3300.

Early signs of bearish reversal/retracement were demonstrated around the price level of 1.3317. Bearish pullback was expected to extend down towards 1.3240 and 1.3200 where price action should be watched cautiously for bullish positions.

Bullish persistence above the newly-established depicted demand-zone (1.3240-1.3190) is mandatory to allow further bullish advancement.

Any bearish breakdown below 1.3190 invalidates the short-term bullish scenario allowing a quick bearish movement to occur towards 1.3150 (lower limit of the demand zone) and 1.3060 where the recent bullish breakout was initiated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for bearish pullback towards 1.3190 for a valid low-risk BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.3150. T/P levels to be located around 1.3240 and 1.3317 initially.

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Ireland Factory Growth Improves In February

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Ireland's manufacturing growth strengthened further in February with solid gains in output and employment, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday.

The Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, for the manufacturing sector rose to 54 from 52.6 in January. A reading above 50 suggests growth in the sector. The sector has now improved for 69 consecutive months.

Output grew at the fastest pace in three months, while employment grew at the quickest rate in four months

Meanwhile, stocks of purchases among Irish manufacturers grew at the fastest pace in the near 21-year series history, thanks to the Brexit uncertainty.

Business optimism fell to its lowest level in 18 months, due to the Brexit uncertainty.


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A break will benefit all

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The growth rate of the US GDP has somewhat slowed down in Q4 but it was not as pronounced as the market had expected, which ultimately contributed to the strengthening of the dollar.

The first data release points to a 2.6% annual GDP growth, which is worse than 3.4% in the 3rd quarter and 4.2% in Q2, but better than the predicted 2.3%. For the whole of 2018, the growth was 2.9%, which is quite consistent with a strong labor market. The ISM index assumes even higher GDP growth than preliminary data. Thus, a failure in Q1 despite weak retail sales data and shutdown is unlikely to occur.

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Nevertheless, the slowdown of the US economy in 2019 is inevitable, considering the tightening of financial conditions and weakening incentives have a lagging effect, and tax reform could not have the effect that was calculated. The yield curve still indicates the likelihood of a recession in the next 9-12 months, but in order to push the development of events under a negative scenario, some kind of driver is required. The growth of stock markets as a reaction to the Fed's changing policy indicates that the bubble has not yet fully formed and some potential for growth remains. The Fed's plans to find an equilibrium level of balance above the pre-crisis one and a pause in interest rates also indicate an intention to prevent excessive tightening of financial conditions.

A lot of questions has caused the exhaustion of the national debt ceiling and the growth of the budget deficit. But so far, there is no action and the dollar will remain stable. Trade negotiations with China are slow, but some of the growing US deficit will still be closed at the Chinese expense. Soon after, Europe's turn will come.

Today is quite a busy day for the dollar. Data on personal consumption in December, PMI Markit, as well as, ISM indices in the manufacturing sector and consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan will be published. In general, the expectations are moderately positive and taking into account it is Friday, we can expect that the dollar will slightly improve its position, primarily against the yen, by the close of the week.

EUR / USD pair

The Preliminary data on consumer prices in Germany in February can be considered positive. Fears of a possible slowdown in inflation rates did not materialize. Today, data on inflation in the Eurozone as a whole will be published with a positive outlook. The output of the data is not worse than expected which can support the euro.

The decline in the EUR/USD pair still looks corrective and may end in the area of 1.1340/50. There is a probable resumption of growth with the target of 1.1418 and then to 1.1430.

GBP / USD pair

According to Gfk, Consumer confidence in the UK is low but at a stable level. The index slightly increased to -13p in February against -14p a month earlier, which turned out to be a surprise, as it was predicted to decline to -15p.

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The index is more positive than negative, despite the slowdown in economic growth and uncertainty on Brexit. There are no signs of a sharp fall, which was immediately observed after the referendum. At the same time, the mood regarding the general economic situation remains gloomy and consumers are afraid of a possible storm when faced with the first consequences of leaving the EU.

The development of the situation occurs according to the scenario of Brexit, wherein the usual characteristic for those cases when each side tries to avoid responsibility for the result as much as possible. A complex three-stage parliamentary voting plan was adopted with a high probability to be completed, either by extending the validity period of Article 50 for 2-3 months or by a new referendum. The parties are trying to get away from the scenario where the UK leaves the EU without any deal. For the pound, these throwings are rather positive, since they indicate a reluctance to increase tensions.

Today, the pound remains to be the favorite to be paired with the dollar. The support is at the level of 1.3211, however, the probability of decline to this support is low. More likely, there will be growth and an attempt to update the recent high of 1.3350.

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