U.S. Personal Income Dips In January After Jumping In December

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed U.S. personal income edged slightly lower in the month of January after jumping much more than expected in December.

The report said personal income dipped by 0.1 percent in January after surging up by 1.0 percent in December and rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in November.

Economists had expected income to climb by 0.4 percent in December compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

The modest pullback in personal income in January, the first drop since November of 2015, primarily reflected decreases in personal dividend income, farm proprietors' income, and personal interest income

The decreases were partially offset by increases in social security benefit payments and other government social benefits.

Disposable personal income, or personal income less personal current taxes, slipped by 0.2 percent in January after spiking by 1.1 percent in December and rising by 0.3 percent in November.

The Commerce Department noted the report combines estimates on income in January and December due to the recent partial government shutdown.

However, the report only included readings on personal spending in December as a result of a delay in the release of data on retail sales.

The report said personal spending fell by 0.5 percent in December after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in November. The decrease in spending was the biggest since September of 2009.

Economists had expected personal spending to drop by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.

Real spending, which is adjusted to remove price changes, slumped by 0.6 percent in December after increasing by 0.5 percent for two consecutive months.

Spending on recreational goods and vehicles showed a notable decrease along with spending on household electricity and gas.

Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economic said the drop in real spending in December "confirms that the economy entered 2019 with much less momentum."

"Consumption growth is on track to slow from 2.8% annualized in the fourth quarter to below 1.5% this quarter, dragging economic growth below trend," he added.

With income jumping and spending falling, personal saving as a percentage of disposable income surged up to 7.6 percent in December from 6.1 percent in November.

A reading on inflation said to be preferred by the Federal Reserve showed the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 1.9 percent in December.

"With inflation subdued and economic growth falling below trend, the Fed will remain on hold, and as the economy slows further, we suspect its next move will be to cut rates," Pearce said.


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Dollar will remain strong despite the size of the US national debt

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

According to a number of experts, the dollar will continue to remain strong, even though it may shortly give up a part of the euro position.

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Since March 1, a ban on government loans comes into force in the United States. The so-called "public debt ceiling" was suspended last February as part of an agreement on the budget reached between Republicans and Democrats in Congress.

It is known that over the past year, the US Treasury took the record amount in the market since 2009 with $ 1.22 trillion and the country's total national debt exceeded $ 22 trillion. When the US Treasury actively attracts loans, dollar liquidity is withdrawn from the market. This creates a demand for the greenback from the large banks, which supports its rate. However, the situation may change in March, since the restriction on raising funds can deprive the dollar of this support.

It is assumed that the factor of raising the limit of US government debt for some time may weaken the position of the dollar against the euro by up to the level of 1.15.

At the same time, such fundamental factors and the difference in interest rates in the United States and Europe will continue to play against the euro while maintaining the current imbalance in the foreseeable future with risks sagging against the dollar below $1.12.

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U.S. Personal Income Edges Lower In January After Jumping In December

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

A report released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed U.S. personal income edged slightly lower in the month of January after jumping much more than expected in December.

The report said personal income dipped by 0.1 percent in January after surging up by 1.0 percent in December and rising by an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in November.

Economists had expected income to climb by 0.4 percent in December compared to the 0.2 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

The Commerce Department noted the report combines estimates on income in January and December due to the recent partial government shutdown.

However, the report only included readings on personal spending in December as a result of a delay in the release of data on retail sales.

The report said personal spending fell by 0.5 percent in December after climbing by an upwardly revised 0.6 percent in November.

Economists had expected personal spending to drop by 0.3 percent compared to the 0.4 percent increase originally reported for the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK Manufacturing Growth At 4-month Low In February

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

British manufacturing growth slowed to its weakest level in four months in February with manufacturers hastening to implement measures to cushion the adverse effects of Brexit, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday.

The IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Manaers' Index for manufacturing fell to a four-month low of 52 from 52.6 in January, which was revised down from 52.8. The reading was in line with economists' expectations.

A PMI reading above 50 suggests expansion in the factory sector. The latest score was the second lowest since July 2016, which was the month after the EU referendum.

As manufacturers intensified stockpiling raw materials, input inventories grew at a record rate. Firms also increased stockpiling of finished goods.

Brexit uncertainties also led business confidence to a record low and the rate of job losses hit a six-year high.

"Official data confirm that manufacturing is already in recession, and the February PMI offers little evidence that any short-lived boost to output from stock-building is sufficient to claw the sector back into growth territory," IHS Markit Director Rob Dobson said.

"Manufacturing and the broader UK economy therefore face a difficult 2019, with the slowdown being exacerbated later in the year as inventory positions are unwound and Brexit-related headwinds likely to linger," he added.


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German Jobless Decline, Retail Sales Jump Signal Strong Consumption Gains Ahead

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Germany's unemployment declined sharply in February, while retail sales rebounded strongly in January, both surpassing economists' expectations by wide margins, suggesting that the growth in the biggest euro area economy is set to be driven by private consumption as exports suffer due to global factors.

The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed fell by 21,000 in February, figures from the Federal Labor Agency showed on Friday. The decline was much bigger a than the fall of 5,000 economists had predicted.

January's decrease was revised to 4,000 from 2,000.

The non-seasonally adjusted unemployment totaled 2.373 million in February versus 2.405 million in January.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained unchanged at a record low of 5 percent in February. The rate has been at this level since November. The outcome was in line with economists' expectations.

The Federal Statistical Office reported on Friday that the ILO jobless rate eased to 3.2 percent in January from 3.3 percent in December.

"All in all, the German labor market remains an impressive growth engine for the entire economy, currently defying all external downside risks and uncertainties," ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

"It is a perfect illustration of the current divide of the German economy between a strong domestic and stuttering external part."

Earlier on Friday, official data showed that German retail sales grew at a stronger-than-expected pace in January, entirely reversing a steep decline in the previous month, to log the biggest growth in over two years.

Retail sales rose 3.3 percent month-on-month, preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed. The increase was much bigger than the 1.90 percent gain economists had predicted.

The latest sales growth was the biggest since October 2016, when sales rose at the same pace.

The decline for December was revised to 3.1 percent from 4.30 percent.

On a year-on-year basis, retail sales grew 2.6 percent in January, which also exceeded economists' forecast of 1.20 percent gain.

The pace of growth was the fastest in three months. In October, sales grew 6 percent.

The December decline was revised to 1.6 percent from 2.10 percent.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco grew 2.7 percent year-on-year and non-food sales rose 2.3 percent.

Within non-food, sales in the other retail group that includes books, jewelry and so on surged 4.1 percent. Internet and mail orders sales jumped 6.2 percent.

The market research group GfK has forecast 1.5 percent growth in German private consumption this year.


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GBP / USD plan for the US session on March 1. The pound continues a slow downward correction

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The data released in the first half of the day on the UK economy, particularly the PMI index for the manufacturing sector, did not support the pound as they coincided with economists' forecasts. The technical picture in the pair remained unchanged. It is best to return to long positions after fixing above the resistance of 1.3276, which can lead to the termination of stop orders of sellers and a sharper upward movement to the area of maximum at 1.3346, where I recommend taking profits. In case of further downward correction, long positions can be viewed at the false breakdown from the support of 1.3204 or at the rebound from the low of 1.3144.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Bears are slowly but surely striving for the support level of 1.3204 and as long as the trade is conducted below this range, the pressure on the pair will continue. However, in case the pound rises in the second half of the day, only an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3276 will be a signal to open short positions. Otherwise, selling the GBP/USD pair is best for a rebound from the maximum of 1.3346. The main goal is at least to the level of 1.3144, where I recommend fixing the profit.

More in the video forecast for March 1

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above 30- and 50-medium-moving, which indicates a bearish market correction.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on March 1. Eurozone Inflation based on the Forecast

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair has not changed. The data released in the first half of the day coincided with the expectations of economists, which kept the euro from a larger sale. Buyers still need to return to the resistance level of 1.1383 and fixing above which will be a signal to buy in order to update the weekly maximum of 1.1417, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of good statistics on the American economy, the results are scheduled to be released in the second half of the day. It is best to consider new long positions in EUR/USD pair after an update of the minimum at 1.1348 or to rebound from the support of 1.1317.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

As long as trading continues below the 1.1383 border, the pressure on EUR / USD will continue. The formation of a false breakdown on the said level in the second half of the day will be a direct signal to sell the euro to reduce to a minimum of 1.1348 and update the area of support at 1.1317, where I recommend fixing profits. Under the scenario of a re-growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1383, it is best to consider new short positions for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1417 and 1.1459.

More in the video forecast for March 1

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility is very low, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Little Changed After U.S. Personal Income And Spending Data

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. personal income and spending data for December has been released at 8:30 am ET Friday. The greenback changed little against its major opponents after the data.

The greenback was trading at 1.1380 against the euro, 111.86 against the yen, 1.3232 against the pound and 0.9986 against the franc around 8:34 am ET.


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Loonie Little Changed After Canada GDP Data

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Following the release of Canada GDP data for December at 8:30 am ET Friday, the loonie changed little against its major counterparts.

The loonie was trading at 1.3203 against the greenback, 84.73 against the yen, 0.9383 against the aussie and 1.5024 against the euro around 8:32 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Personal Income Edges Down 0.1% In January

Trading 01 mar 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Personal Income Edges Down 0.1% In January


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