Dollar Displays Strength Against Most Major Currencies

Trading 30 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar displayed strength against major currencies and the Dollar Index has gained more than 1% in March, the best monthly performance in five months.

The dollar index rose to 97.34 and was hovering around 97.25 later on in the session, still holding above previous close.

The Pound sterling weakened against the greenback and was down 0.16% at $1.3028 after British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit withdrawal plan was rejected by the Parliament for the third time.

May's trimmed Brexit deal was defeated by a margin of 58 votes, much narrower than the earlier defeat earlier this month.

Now, the U.K. has time till April 12 to come up with a new plan. There will be a vote on Monday on alternative Brexit plans.

The greenback was up 0.17% against the Japanese yen, with a dollar fetching 110.81 yen. Earlier, the yen had weakened to 110.95 a dollar, from early high of 110.54.

The Euro was down as well against the U.S. dollar, falling marginally to $1.1219.

The Canadian loonie was trading at $1.3354 against the U.S. dollar, gaining over 6%, after data showed Canada's real GDP to have grown 0.3% in January, bouncing back after contracting in November and December, with 18 out of 20 industrial sectors moving higher.

Against the Swiss Franc, the dollar was down slightly at 0.9953.

In U.S. economic news today, personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than anticipated in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.

The report said personal income rose by 0.2% in February after edging down by 0.1% in January. Economists had expected personal income to climb by 0.3%.

Another report from the Commerce Department showed new home sales surged up by 4.9% to an annual rate of 667,000 in February from the revised January rate of 636,000. Economists had expected new home sales to increase by about 1.3%.

With the increase in February, new home sales are at their high level since hitting a rate of 672,000 last March and up 0.6% compared to the same month a year ago.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved by more than initially estimated in the month of March, according to a report released by the University of Michigan.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for March was upwardly revised to 98.4 from the preliminary reading of 97.8.

Economists had expected the index to be unrevised at 97.8, which would have still been above the final February reading of 93.8.

On the trade front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on social network Twitter that he and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer concluded constructive trade talks in Beijing.

"I look forward to welcoming China's Vice Premier Liu He to continue these important discussions in Washington next week," he added.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures Settle Higher

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Friday as drop in crude supply due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and the OPEC-led output cuts will will outweighed concerns about global economic showdown.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for May ended up $0.84, or 1.4%, at $60.14 a barrel, after rising to a high of $60.73 in the session, the best level in about 4-1/2 months.

On Thursday, crude oil futures for May ended down $0.11, or 0.2%, at $59.30 a barrel.

So far this year, WTI crude futures have gained 32.4%, the best quarterly performance in nearly ten years.

A report from Baker Hughes today showed the U.S. oil rigs count dropped by eight this week.

OPEC-led production cuts have been supporting oil prices since the beginning of this year, though at times crude was seen struggling to sustain higher levels due to rising U.S. output and concerns about energy demand due to weak global growth outlook.

In early December last year, OPEC and allies pleged t0 withhold around 1.2 million barrels per day of supply in 2019 to prop up markets.

It is expected that the group will continue with their output cuts through the rest of this year.

The cartel is scheduled to meet in June to review the situation and decide on whether to continue withholding supply or not.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures ended modestly higher on Friday, rebounding after steep losses in the previous session, with traders betting on a likely climb of the commodity amid prospects of a disorderly Brexit.

Traders were also weighing the prospects of continued spell of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve amid growing signs of economic slowdown.

The dollar index was up marginally, after swinging between gains and losses. At 97.28, it was up 0.08%, after having moved between 97.20 and 97.34 earlier.

Gold futures for June ended up $3.20, or 0.2%, at $1,298.50 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures for June ended down $21.60, or 1.6%, at $1,295.30 an ounce.

For the week, gold futures lost more than 1% and in the month of March, the contract lost about 1.4%.

Silver futures for May ended up $0.137, at $15.110 an ounce, while Copper futures for May settled at $2.9360 per pound, gaining $0.0635.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said today that he is treating the mixed and often weak course of first-quarter data cautiously for the time being, but underscored that the central bank should be patient.

He added that he expected data to improve in the near term.

In U.S. economic news today, personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than anticipated in the month of February, according to a report released by the Commerce Department.

The report said personal income rose by 0.2% in February after edging down by 0.1% in January. Economists had expected personal income to climb by 0.3%.

Reflecting the continued impact of the recent government shutdown, the Commerce Department also released data on personal spending in January but not February.

Personal spending inched up by 0.1% in January after falling by 0.6% in December, while economists had expected spending to increase by 0.3%.

Another report from the Commerce Department showed a much bigger than expected increase in U.S. new home sales in the month of February as well as substantial revisions to the previous data.

The Commerce Department said new home sales surged up by 4.9% to an annual rate of 667,000 in February from the revised January rate of 636,000. Economists had expected new home sales to increase by about 1.3%.

The report also showed the 6.9% plunge in new home sales originally reported for January was revised to an 8.2% spike, although the jump in new home sales in December was also revised to a 3.9% slump.

With the increase in February, new home sales are at their high level since hitting a rate of 672,000 last March and up 0.6% compared to the same month a year ago.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved by more than initially estimated in the month of March, according to a report released by the University of Michigan.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for March was upwardly revised to 98.4 from the preliminary reading of 97.8.

Economists had expected the index to be unrevised at 97.8, which would have still been above the final February reading of 93.8.

On the trade front, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on social network Twitter that he and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer concluded constructive trade talks in Beijing.

"I look forward to welcoming China's Vice Premier Liu He to continue these important discussions in Washington next week," he added.

On Brexit, British MPs today rejected the government's EU withdrawal agreement, by a margin of 58 votes.

Now, the country faces a new deadline of April 12. Meanwhile, the European Union is likely to plan an emergency summit on April 10 to discuss its next move.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Extend Pullback Amid Optimism About U.S.-China Trade Talks

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Following the modest pullback seen in the previous session, treasuries saw some further downside during trading on Friday.

Bond prices climbed off their worst levels after coming under pressure early in the session but remained firmly negative. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2.5 basis points to 2.414 percent.

With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield continued to recover after ending Wednesday's trading at its lowest closing level since December of 2017.

The continued weakness among treasuries came amid optimism about the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China.

In a post on Twitter this morning, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin described the latest round of high-level U.S. trade talks as "constructive."

Mnuchin also said he looks forward to welcoming China's Vice Premier Liu He to continue the important discussions in Washington next week.

Selling pressure in the bond markets was somewhat subdued, however, as traders digested a mixed batch of U.S. economic data.

Early in the day, a report released by the Commerce Department showed personal income in the U.S. increased by slightly less than anticipated in the month of February.

The report said personal income rose by 0.2 percent in February after edging down by 0.1 percent in January. Economists had expected personal income to climb by 0.3 percent.

Reflecting the continued impact of the recent government shutdown, the Commerce Department also released data on personal spending in January but not February.

Personal spending inched up by 0.1 percent in January after falling by 0.6 percent in December, while economists had expected spending to increase by 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, a separate Commerce Department report showed a much bigger than expected increase in U.S. new home sales in the month of February.

The Commerce Department said new home sales surged up by 4.9 percent to an annual rate of 667,000 in February from the revised January rate of 636,000. Economists had expected new home sales to increase by about 1.3 percent.

With the increase in February, new home sales are at their high level since hitting a rate of 672,000 last March and up 0.6 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

Economic data is likely to be in focus next week, as the Labor Department is scheduled to release its closely watched monthly jobs report next Friday.

Reports on retail sales, durable goods orders, and manufacturing and service sector activity are also likely to attract some attention.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The global debt market is reeling

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

a2TshHCE0nhVoVKKyLtwdhasoim_Lk50YubiQ9ps

At the moment, experts assess the state of the global debt market as unstable, calling this phenomenon Japanization, "flight to quality" and an attempt to adapt to the new standards proposed by the Fed. Analysts believe that in the near future, the world economy will face a fall in growth rates and slide into deflation.

The Japanization of the global economy is growing, and the debt market demonstrates this. This term implies the development of the economy according to the Japanese scenario. Note that in the Land of the Rising Sun, there has been no growth over the past twenty years. The state is constantly struggling with deflation, although the Bank of Japan uses all possible tools to stimulate price growth. The reason for this is partly the policy of the Japanese regulator. A few years ago, the Central Bank of Japan first started printing money, which in the short term proved very effective. However, this later led to negative consequences. Nevertheless, the launch of QE was decided by major players in the world market – the Fed and the ECB, and now they have to find a way out of the impasse.

Currently, the yield of indicative US Treasury securities is at a minimum, and the rates on Germany's public debt were in the red. At the same time, according to Bloomberg, century-old bonds, associated with the risk of changes in interest rates, suddenly became one of the market leaders. Surprisingly, investors ignore the inevitable uncertainty associated with attempts to bet a hundred years ahead.

Over the past three weeks, the capitalization of bonds with an investment grade rating and high-yield bonds of the world soared almost $ 1.6 trillion, reaching $ 55 trillion, Bloomberg noted. Investors have a new appetite for risk, and they expect that central banks will fuel their profits before the end of the credit cycle. Thirty-year Bundes, whose yield is only 0.54%, went up by 7.7%, ahead of the "junk" bonds and bonds of emerging markets.

Currently, corporate debt markets are also involved in the pursuit of profitability. However, in the event of a slowdown in economic growth, the balance sheets of companies will suffer, because they will not be able to service a high debt burden.

In the debt market of Europe, the situation also leaves much to be desired. The yields of ten-year German bonds fell below the yields of similar bonds in Japan. Experts consider this a wake-up call for the global economy. They believe that Europe may face a recession at a time when rates will still be negative. At the same time, the ECB can do little to help, since it does not have the tools to stimulate economic growth.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Poland Inflation At 5-Month High

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Poland's consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in March and at a faster than expected pace, flash data from Statistics Poland showed on Friday.

The consumer price index rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in March, following a 1.2 percent rise in February. Economists had expected 1.6 percent inflation.

The latest reading was the highest since October 2018, when the inflation was 1.8 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in March. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent rise.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for March 29, 2019

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

We found the upside breakout of the well-defined trading range in the background, which is sign that buyers are in control. The short-term trend is bullish and the Keltner channel is going upwards, which are all signs of the strength. Resistance levels are found at $4.158 and $4.270. Support level is found at the price of $4.020.

analytics5c9e3e5be4852.jpg

Trading recommendation: We are long BTC from $4.070 with target at 4.158. Protective stop is placed at $3.983.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

BITCOIN Analysis for March 29, 2019

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum above $4,000. The level has been recently retested. The price is going on with a rally. The price is currently trading above $4,100. BTC is likely to extend its climb towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500 area in the coming days.

The price is currently being supported by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun, and Kumo Cloud. Such support is expected to carry the price further upward. The price formation currently is breaking above the corrective volatile range. On the other hand, breaking above $4,250 will help the price to get impulsive momentum, so the price could extend a rally towards $4,500 and later towards $5,000 in the short term as there is no obstacle which could put pressure on bullish momentum. As the price remains above $4,000, the price will acculumate the impulsive bullish pressure.

analytics5c9e3b6c26152.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Improves More Than Initially Estimated In March

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. improved by more than initially estimated in the month of March, according to a report released by the University of Michigan on Friday.

The report said the consumer sentiment index for March was upwardly revised to 98.4 from the preliminary reading of 97.8.

Economists had expected the index to be unrevised at 97.8, which would have still been above the final February reading of 93.8.

The increase by the index came as more positive assessments from lower income households more than offset a drop in sentiment among households with incomes in the top third.

"Middle and lower income households more frequently reported income gains than last month, although income gains were still widespread among upper income households," said Surveys of Consumers chief economist Richard Curtin.

"Rising incomes were accompanied by lower expected year-ahead inflation rates, resulting in more favorable real income expectations," he added. "Moreover, all income groups voiced more favorable growth prospects for the overall economy."

The report said the current economic conditions index jumped to 113.3 in March from 108.5 in February, while the index of consumer expectations climbed to 88.8 from 84.4.

On the inflation front, one-year inflation expectations edged down to 2.5 percent in March from 2.6 percent in February but five-year inflation expectations rose to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent.

"Overall, the data do not indicate an emerging recession but point toward slightly lower unit sales of vehicles and homes during the year ahead," Curtin said.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Portugal Inflation Steady In March

Trading 29 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Portugal consumer price inflation was stable in March, flash data from Statistics Portugal showed on Friday.

The consumer price index rose 0.9 percent year-on-year in March, the same rate of increase as in February.

The core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products components, eased to 0.7 percent in March from 1.0 percent in the previous month.

Energy inflation accelerated to 1.3 percent in March from a negative 0.7 percent in February.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 1.8 percent, reversing 0.2 percent decline in February.

The EU measure of harmonized index of consumer price, or HICP, rose 0.8 percent year-on-year in March, which was less than the 0.9 percent rise in February.

Compared to the previous month, HICP rose 2.1 percent in March, reversing a 0.3 percent fall in the prior month.

Separate data from Statistics Portugal showed that industrial production fell 2.5 percent year-on-year in February after a 3.3 percent fall in January.

Excluding energy, industrial production grew 0.6 percent in February, reversing a 2.8 percent in January.

Retail sales climbed 4.5 percent annually in February, following a 5.3 percent rise in January.

The unemployment rate eased to 6.3 percent in February from 6.6 percent in the previous four months.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com