*New Zealand Imports +7.7% On Year In January; Exports +3.0%

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

New Zealand Imports +7.7% On Year In January; Exports +3.0%


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*New Zealand Has NZ$914 Million Trade Deficit In January

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

New Zealand Has NZ$914 Million Trade Deficit In January


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Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Major Currencies

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against its peers on Tuesday, with the British Pound Sterling leading the charge, scoring notable gains amid reports there could be delays on Brexit.

According to reports, a second referendum looks very likely. British Prime Minister Theresa May said a vote on her Brexit deal would be held on March 12. In the event of the deal getting rejected again, there will be a vote on a no-deal Brexit in Parliament on March 13, and if that fails, the lawmakers would then vote on March 14 to see if article 50 could be extended beyond the March 29 deadline.

The Sterling was gaining about 1.2% at $1.3254, rising from $1,3102.

The greenback shed ground against the Euro as well, weakening to 1.1393 an Euro, losing about 0.3%, after advancing to 1.1346 earlier in the day.

The Japanese Yen gained against the U.S. dollar, strengthening to 110.57 after opening at 111.06 yen a dollar. The dollar rose to its highest level since late December, as it advanced to 111.08, but retreated as the session progressed.

Canadian dollar loonie and the Chess Franc are also up against the dollar, gaining 0.13% and 0.07%, respectively, with the USD/CAD and USD/CHF pairs trading at 1.3171 and 0.9999, respectively.

The dollar index was lower by about 0.38% at 96.04, easing from 96.46 it had touched a little before noon.

Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Fed continues to view economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable but noted there have been some crosscurrents and conflicting signals over the past few months.

Powell pointed toward volatility in the financial markets, slowing growth in China and Europe, and uncertainty about Brexit and the U.S.-China trade talks.

Powell highlighted the Fed's recent "patient approach" to raising interest rates and stressed future policy decisions will be data dependent and take into account new information as economic conditions and the outlook evolve.

In economic news, a report from the Conference Board showed a substantial rebound in consumer confidence in the month of February.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 131.4 in February after falling to 121.7 in January. Economists had expected the index to rise to 125.0.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged to a two-year low in December.


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New Zealand Trade Balance On Tap For Wednesday

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

New Zealand will on Wednesday release January figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Imports are expected to be worth NZ$5.0 billion, down from NZ$5.22 billion in December. Exports are seen at NZ$4.8 billion, down sharply from NZ$5.48 billion in the previous month. The trade deficit is pegged at NZ$300 million.

Australia will see Q4 figures for construction work done, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 0.5 percent following the 2.8 percent decline in the three months prior.

Hong Kong will provide Q4 data for gross domestic product; in the previous three months, GDP was up 0.1 percent on quarter and 2.9 percent on year.


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Treasuries Move To The Upside As Powell Warns Of Headwinds

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Extending the see-saw trend seen over the past few sessions, treasuries rebounded on Tuesday following the pullback seen on Monday.

Bond prices gave back ground after seeing initial strength but moved back to the upside in the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3.7 basis points to 2.636 percent.

The rebound by treasuries came as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, telling lawmakers the U.S. economy remains healthy but warning about potential headwinds.

Powell noted in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed has seen "some crosscurrents and conflicting signals" regarding current conditions and the economic outlook over the past few months.

The Fed Chief specifically pointed to volatility in the financial markets toward the end of 2018, calling financial conditions "less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year."

Powell also cited slowing economic growth in foreign countries, particularly China and Europe, as well was uncertainty about Brexit and ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China.

"We will carefully monitor these issues as they evolve," Powell told the members of the Republican-controlled Senate committee.

Reflecting the uncertainty, Powell highlighted the Fed's decision at its January meeting to adopt a "patient approach" with regard to future interest rate hikes.

"Going forward, our policy decisions will continue to be data dependent and will take into account new information as economic conditions and the outlook evolve," he said.

Treasuries also reacted positively to the results of the Treasury Department's auction of $32 billion worth of seven-year notes, which attracted slightly above average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.538 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60, while the ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold. Today's seven-year note auction came after the Treasury sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes and $41 billion worth of five-year notes on Monday.

On the U.S. economic front, a Commerce Department showing housing starts tumbled to their lowest level in over two years in December was offset by a Conference Board report showing a bigger than expected rebound in consumer confidence in February.

Powell's second day of testimony on Capitol Hill may attract attention on Wednesday along with reports on pending home sales and factory orders.


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Oil Futures Settle Slightly Higher

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved in a tight range on Tuesday with traders weighing near term global supply and demand prospects, as they looked ahead to weekly inventory data.

The American Petroleum Institute is scheduled to release its weekly oil report later in the day, while the official inventory data from U.S. Energy Information Administration is due on Wednesday morning.

Oil prices edged higher earlier in the session, rebounding from previous session's losses. Prices fell yesterday after U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted, "Oil prices getting too high. OPEC, Please relax and take it easy. World cannot take a price hike."

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended up $0.02, or about 0.04%, at $55.50 a barrel.

On Monday, WTI futures for April ended down $1.78, or 3.1%, at $55.78 a barrel, well off the day's high of $57.53.

Brent Crude Oil futures for April gained about 0.5% to 65.23 a barrel around mid afternoon.

Earlier today, Saudi Aramco's chief executive said today the oil industry is facing "a crisis of perception" and the industry needs to push back exaggerated theories like peak oil demand.

Goldman Sachs said in a report that the oil market continues to tighten significantly and Brent crude prices will likely reach $70 to $75 a barrel in the near term.

Meanwhile, despite Donald Trump's comments about crude oil prices, a source from OPEC has reportedly told Reuters that the organisation would stick to its agreement to tighten crude supplies.


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Gold Futures Settle Marginally Lower

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday, extending losses from previous session, as traders continued to seek riskier assets such as equities, amid optimism about global economy.

Fairly strong economic data out of the U.S. lifted stocks on Wall Street and expectations about a Brexit delay aided European stocks.

The other safe haven, dollar, eased as well with expectations about a trade deal between the two largest economies continued to prompt investors to lean towards stocks.

Gold futures for April ended down $1.00, or about 0.7%, at $1,328.50 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for April settled at $1,329.50, losing $3.30, or 0.3%, for the session.

Silver futures for March ended up $0.002, at $15.832 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $2.9450 per pound, unchanged from previous close.

Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the Fed continues to view economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable but noted there have been some crosscurrents and conflicting signals over the past few months.

Powell pointed toward volatility in the financial markets, slowing growth in China and Europe, and uncertainty about Brexit and the U.S.-China trade talks.

He highlighted the Fed's recent "patient approach" to raising interest rates and stressed future policy decisions will be data dependent and take into account new information as economic conditions and the outlook evolve.

In economic news, a report from the Conference Board showed a substantial rebound in consumer confidence in the month of February.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 131.4 in February after falling to 121.7 in January. Economists had expected the index to rise to 125.0.

A separate report from the Commerce Department showed housing starts plunged to a two-year low in December, although the government shutdown-delayed data may have been viewed as old news.


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Powell Warns Of 'Crosscurrents And Conflicting Signals' On Economy

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress on Tuesday, telling lawmakers the U.S. economy remains healthy but warning about potential headwinds.

Powell noted in prepared remarks before the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed has seen "some crosscurrents and conflicting signals" regarding current conditions and the economic outlook over the past few months.

The Fed Chief specifically pointed to volatility in the financial markets toward the end of 2018, calling financial conditions "less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year."

Powell also cited slowing economic growth in foreign countries, particularly China and Europe, as well was uncertainty about Brexit and ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and China.

"We will carefully monitor these issues as they evolve," Powell told the members of the Republican-controlled Senate committee.

Reflecting the uncertainty, Powell highlighted the Fed's decision at its January meeting to adopt a "patient approach" with regard to future interest rate hikes.

"Going forward, our policy decisions will continue to be data dependent and will take into account new information as economic conditions and the outlook evolve," he said.

Powell also discussed the Fed's efforts to shrink the size of its balance sheet, noting the central bank is prepared to adjust any details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments.

"In the longer run, the size of the balance sheet will be determined by the demand for Federal Reserve liabilities such as currency and bank reserves," Powell said.

Powell is likely to deliver a similar message when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.


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Seven-Year Note Auction Attracts Slightly Above Average Demand

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Following yesterday's auctions of two-year and five-year notes, the Treasury Department finished off this week's series of long-term securities auctions with the sale of $32 billion worth of seven-year notes on Tuesday, attracting slightly above average demand.

The seven-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.538 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.60.

The Treasury also sold $32 billion worth of seven-year notes last month, drawing a high yield of 2.625 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous seven-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.53.

Today's seven-year note auction came after the Treasury sold $40 billion worth of two-year notes and $41 billion worth of five-year notes on Monday.


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BITCOIN Analysis for February 26, 2019

Trading 26 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin managed to sustain the bullish momentum it gained yesterday after an impulsive bearish daily close below $4,000. Persistent bullish pressure above the Kumo Cloud, 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line signals strength of bulls which is expected to push the price higher towards $4,000 and much higher later.

Though the overall price action is still quite volatile, strong bullish pressure with a dynamic level holding the price as support indicates that upward momentum and bullish bias in Bitcoin is still ready to thrive. A break above $4,000 will lead to a robust upward movement. Apart from the recent False Breakout above $4,000, current bullish formation off the dynamic level is expected to secure the momentum above $4,000 which may lead the price towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500 in the future.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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