Dollar Exhibits Some Weakness

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar weakened against some major currencies on Friday, with riskier assets such as equities gaining ground as trade talks between the U.S. and China concluded in Washington and traders looked ahead to the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

According to reports, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the two largest economies have come to an agreement on currency with the U.S. asking China to stabilize the Yuan.

Meanwhile, reports hint a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in late March. Ahead of the March 1 deadline for fresh tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump has indicated some flexibility on hikes in duties.

The dollar index, after advancing higher earlier in the day, hovered around 96.55, down 0.06% from previous close, giving up about 0.3% in the week.

Against the Euro, the dollar was little changed and against the British Pound, it was losing about 0.11%, even as uncertainty about Brexit continued.

The Aussie was gaining about 0.5%, with the pair trading at 0.7126.

The Japanese Yen was up slightly at 110.67 a little while ago, gaining from 110.70.

Against Swiss Franc, the dollar was little changed and against the Canadian currency loonie, it was weak by about 0.6%.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures Settle At Highest Level Since Mid-November

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended higher on Friday with traders betting on hopes a positive outcome from U.S.-China trade discussions will result in increased demand for crude.

The OPEC-led output cuts, Saudi Arabia and Nigeria's decisions to resort to bigger output reductions and the U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela contributed as well to oil's uptick.

Meanwhile, a report from Baker Hughes said weekly rig-count dropped by four to 853 this week.

Gains, however, were just modest, as recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed another increase in crude inventories in the world's largest economy.

The EIA report on Thursday showed crude supplies in the U.S. were up 3.7 million barrels in the week ended February 15th, rising for a fifth straight week. The report also said crude output in the U.S. was up by about 100,000 barrels to a record 12 million barrels per day last week.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for April ended up $0.30, or 0.5%, at $57.26 a barrel, the best settlement since November 12.

On Thursday, oil futures for April ended down $0.20, or 0.4%, at $56.96 a barrel.

Following the latest round of talks between high ranking officials from the U.S. and China, President Donald Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are scheduled to meet later in the day.

Meanwhile, according to reports, Trump said he may be inclined to extend negotiations beyond a March 1 deadline, in the event of some progress in trade talks with China.

Trump also reportedly said that he expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping soon and that the biggest trade decisions would be made by them.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Move Back To The Upside Amid U.S.-China Trade Talks

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

After moving notably lower over the course of the previous session, treasuries moved back to the upside during trading on Friday.

Bond prices climbed firmly into positive territory in morning trading but gave back some ground in the afternoon. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3.3 basis points to 2.655 percent.

The rebound by treasuries came as traders looked to the relatively safety of bonds as they waited for developments regarding the latest round of trade talks between the U.S. and China.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin later revealed that Chinese negotiators will extend their visit to Washington in an effort to build on the progress made during this week's talks.

Mnuchin told reporters a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly under discussion for next month may depend on the outcome of the next few days of negotiations.

Meanwhile, Trump said during a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Liu that U.S. and Chinese officials are making "a lot of progress" in the trade talks.

Trump said there was a "very good chance" the U.S. and China could reach a long-term trade deal but at the same time said "who knows" whether a final agreement will be struck.

A report from CNBC said China has committed to buying up to $1.2 trillion worth U.S. goods, although sources said the two sides remain far apart on issues concerning the forced transfer of intellectual property.

Trump has recently suggested he could postpone an increase in tariffs set to take effect in early March if the trade talks continue to show signs of progress.

Further developments regarding the U.S.-China trade talks may impact next week's trading along with reports on housing starts, factory orders, pending home sales, fourth quarter GDP, and manufacturing activity.

Traders are also likely to keep an eye on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.

Bond trading could also be impacted by reaction to the results of the Treasury Department's auction of two-year, five-year, and seven-year notes.

The Treasury said it plans to sell $40 billion worth of two-year notes and $41 billion worth of five-year notes next Monday and $32 billion worth of seven-year notes next Tuesday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher As Dollar Eases

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures settled higher on Friday, with prices edging up after the dollar weakened against some major currencies.

The dollar index was down by about 0.2% at 96.44, with several members of the Federal Reserve suggesting that the balance sheet would be used a tool to combat potential headwinds in the labor market or pace of inflation.

However, the greenback's slide was just marginal thanks to continued optimism about U.S. and China agreeing on a trade in the foreseeable future.

Speaking at a conference in New York, the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles said that the central bank remains committed to its dual mandate of full employment and keeping inflation at a healthy level.

Gold futures for April ended up $5.00, or 0.4%, at $1,332.80 an ounce.

On Thursday, gold futures for April ended down $20.10, or about 1.5%, at $1,327.80 an ounce, suffering their biggest single-day loss in about six months.

Gold futures gained about 0.8% in the week, extending gains from previous week. Gold prices hit a ten-month high of $1,346.73 on Wednesday.

Silver futures for March ended up $0.113, at $15.914 an ounce, while Copper futures for March settled at $2.9515 per pound, gaining $0.0545 for the session.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Canadian Dollar Spikes Up As Oil Prices Rise Amid Ongoing U.S.-China Trade Talks

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar climbed against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, amid higher oil prices on optimism over U.S.-China trade talks in Washington, D.C.

Crude for April delivery rose $0.69 to $57.65 per barrel.

President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He later today ahead of an early March deadline to reach a trade deal.

Reuters reported on Thursday that the two sides have started to sketch commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that Canadian retail sales fell in December, as lower sales at gasoline stations were partly offset by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

Retail sales fell 0.1 percent month-on-month after falling 0.9 percent in the previous month. Economists had forecast a 0.3 percent decline.

Core retail sales dropped 0.5 percent following a 0.6 decrease a month ago. Economists were looking for a 0.3 percent drop.

The currency has been trading lower against its major opponents in the Asian session.

The loonie strengthened to 1.3187 against the greenback, from a 3-day low of 1.3242 set at 10:00 pm ET. The loonie is likely to find resistance around the 1.29 level, if it rises further.

After falling to a 3-day low of 1.5011 against the euro at 2:15 am ET, the loonie reversed direction and climbed to 1.4949. The loonie is seen finding resistance around the 1.48 level.

Data from the Federal Statistical Office confirmed that Germany's economy stagnated in the final three months of the year, thus narrowly avoiding a technical recession.

Gross domestic product was unchanged from the third quarter, when the economy shrunk 0.2 percent. That was in line with the preliminary estimate released on February 14.

The loonie was trading higher at 83.89 against the yen, up from a 3-day low of 83.60 touched at 8:30 pm ET. Next likely resistance for the loonie is seen around the 85.00 level.

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications showed that Japan consumer prices rose 0.2 percent on year in January.

That was in line with expectations and down from 0.3 percent in December.

On the flip side, the loonie declined to 0.9424 against the aussie, compared to Thursday's closing value of 0.9377. Further uptrend is likely to take the loonie to a resistance around the 0.96 area.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar consolidated its success, the Australian was able to rise after yesterday

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

At the same time, dollar growth is limited by weak economic data from the United States including an unexpected drop in orders for capital goods and weak sales in the secondary housing market, which supports the expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

eTXcWuRnXHU05Q5pQdkWqSqVOIhL55X1X7Hb7QKN

The growth of US government bond yields supported the dollar and its Australian counterpart also stabilized after the recent sharp decline against the background of the Central Bank's comments and concerns about a ban on the import of Australian coal in China. Despite the fact that the dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies remained almost unchanged in general. The increase in US Treasury bond yields to a weekly maximum had a positive effect on the currency. At the same time, dollar growth is limited by weak economic data from the United States including an unexpected drop in orders for capital goods and weak sales in the secondary housing market, which supports the expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

The foreign exchange market is entering a phase in which it has already played almost all political events such as trade negotiations between the US and China and Brexit. The time has come again to "return to the sources" and pay special attention to fundamental factors. Special attention should be focused on the wage report next week. Most likely, it will be decisive for the dollar which direction to take.

The Australian dollar was able to partially offset the recent losses and gradually rises from a 10-day low, where it was after information appeared about a ban on the import of Australian coal in some ports of China. A currency strategist at the National Bank of Australia, Rodrigo Catril, said that the Australian rebound occurred after the Chinese authorities eased the restrictions on fuel imports. In addition, the positive comments of the head of the Central Bank of the country at the beginning of the day also increased the exchange rate.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar consolidated its success, the Australian was able to rise after yesterday

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

At the same time, dollar growth is limited by weak economic data from the United States including an unexpected drop in orders for capital goods and weak sales in the secondary housing market, which supports the expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

eTXcWuRnXHU05Q5pQdkWqSqVOIhL55X1X7Hb7QKN

The growth of US government bond yields supported the dollar and its Australian counterpart also stabilized after the recent sharp decline against the background of the Central Bank's comments and concerns about a ban on the import of Australian coal in China. Despite the fact that the dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies remained almost unchanged in general. The increase in US Treasury bond yields to a weekly maximum had a positive effect on the currency. At the same time, dollar growth is limited by weak economic data from the United States including an unexpected drop in orders for capital goods and weak sales in the secondary housing market, which supports the expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates.

The foreign exchange market is entering a phase in which it has already played almost all political events such as trade negotiations between the US and China and Brexit. The time has come again to "return to the sources" and pay special attention to fundamental factors. Special attention should be focused on the wage report next week. Most likely, it will be decisive for the dollar which direction to take.

The Australian dollar was able to partially offset the recent losses and gradually rises from a 10-day low, where it was after information appeared about a ban on the import of Australian coal in some ports of China. A currency strategist at the National Bank of Australia, Rodrigo Catril, said that the Australian rebound occurred after the Chinese authorities eased the restrictions on fuel imports. In addition, the positive comments of the head of the Central Bank of the country at the beginning of the day also increased the exchange rate.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Indicator analysis: Review of the GBP / USD pair for the US session on February 22, 2019

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

X8lK22lbnksZ7LJomr_FNXEMbbZ_z0bEp2EJoCiw

In the American session, the price may continue to move down to the first lower target of 1.2941 with 50.0% correction level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (twelve-hour chart).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - down;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

In the American session, the price may continue to move down to the first lower target of 1.2941 with 50.0% correction level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Belgium Business Confidence Continues To Deteriorate

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Belgium's business confidence weakened further in February, amid further deterioration of morale in the manufacturing and trade sectors, survey data from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Friday. The business confidence index fell to -1.7 from -1.5 in January. Economists had forecast a score of -1.9. Both manufacturing and trade sectors saw firms scaling down their expectations of an increase in demand in future. Retailers are now anticipating a decline in orders in the coming months. Sentiment improved strongly in services and construction industries. Both expect improvement in demand in the months ahead.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of AUD.USD for February 22, 2019

Trading 22 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor Phillip Lowe today spoke quite optimistically about the growth of the economy. The hawkish statement from the RBA Governor helped AUD to regain momentum over USD after impulsive bearish pressure with a daily close.

Recently Australia's Wage Price Index report was published with a decrease to 0.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6%. The worse economic report weakened the currency earlier. However, today AUD gained momentum after positive statements from RBA Governor Lowe.

Australian GDP is expected to be around 3% by 2019 and 2.75% by 2020. If achieved, stronger AUD is going to hold the upper hand in pair. Governor Lowe expressed good confidence about no rate hikes this year which is still variable as situation demands. The interest rate decision is very much depended on the inflation rate whereas any fluctuation on the inflation will lead to further variations.

Recently the US FED unveiled a shift in stance on the balance sheet that aroused criticism from some media sources. The Federal Reserve is currently thinking of stopping the unwind of $4 trillion balance sheet later this year that is strongly disliked by market watchers as they think it will be a terrible mistake. According to the FED, balance sheet reduction is going on for a year and it has not made a significant impact on the economy and financial markets yet, though the economy is expected to benefit from normalization of the balance sheet. Additionally, JP Morgan recently downgraded US Q1 GDP growth outlook to 1.5% from the previous forecast of 1.75%. There are several reasons, but the dongraded forecast is clearly leading the market to indecision and volatility.

Yesterday US Core Durable Goods Orders report was published with a minor increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.4% but it failed to meet the expected value of 0.3% and Philly FED Manufacturing Index was published with a decrease to -4.1 from the previous figure of 17.0 which was expected to be at 14.1. Another market moving event today is FED's Monetary Policy report. Besides, FOMC Members Williams and Clarida are due to speak later in the global trading day. These events are likely to inject volatility in the market.

Meanwhile, certain gains on the USD side may be observed in the coming days but AUD supported by the long-term optimistic view on the economy is expected to lead to certain bullish pressure in the pair in future.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently climbing higher after an impulsive bearish pressure. If bulls are rejected by strong bearish pressure, further downward momentum is expected in this pair for a certain period. As the price is heading towards 0.7000-50 support area, there will be certain probability for bullish intervention in future.

analytics5c7006658a96f.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com