Pound goes counterattack

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Despite the new of Commerzbank calls Theresa May's attempt to return to Brussels and talk with almost every EU high-ranking official Sisyphean amid traders losing faith in the Prime Minister's ability to provide an orderly Brexit, the GBP/USD pair rebounds unexpectedly from the monthly bottom. However, the reasons for this dynamic should be sought not in the strength of the pound but in the weakness of the US dollar. Markets enthusiastically received the news of the readiness of Washington and Beijing to sign a memorandum on the results of the next round of negotiations. The demand for safe-haven assets declined, forcing the US currency to retreat.

The dollar used a combination of drivers quite successfully such as aggressive monetary restriction of the Fed and trade wars in 2018. It lost important trumps this year, however, the response of central banks, as competitors to the Federal Reserve in the form of their readiness to soften monetary policy, brought the US currency back to life. Alas, if the trade conflict is exhausted and the new one does not begin, the gradual restoration of the world economy will return to the radar the issue of normalization in countries and regions such as the eurozone, Britain, and possibly Japan. However, it is too early to talk about it.

As for sterling, the fall in the yield on 10-year British bonds to its lowest level in the last 8 months, the rise in speculative bearish rates and two-month implied volatility, as well as the fall in risks of GBP / USD reversal to the lowest level since November show that investors are losing hope on the existence of an agreement between London and Brussels. CIBC notes that the pound is actively selling on growth, and only strong statistics on retail sales for December and progress in the negotiations between Washington and Beijing temporarily stopped the attacks of "bears".

As for sterling, the yield on 10-year British bonds fell to its lowest level in the last 8 months. The rise in speculative bearish rates and two-month implied volatility, as well as the fall in risks of GBP/USD reversal to the lowest level since November, show that investors are losing hope on the existence of an agreement between London and Brussels. CIBC notes that the pound is actively selling on growth and strong statistics on retail sales for December and progress in the negotiations between Washington and Beijing only temporarily stopped the attacks of "bears".

Dynamics of risks of reversal in the GBP/USD pair

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By the end of the year, retail sales rose by 1% with a forecast of 0.2% m/m and the base indicator jumped by 1.2%. The main contribution was made by clothing sales, demonstrating the best dynamics over the past five holiday seasons. However, you should not rejoice strongly about this as we are talking about adjustments after a disastrous November. In general, the indicator expanded by 0.7% m/m and by 3.5% y/y in three months. In the week to February 22, the pound will have to pass a test of the labor market report in Misty Albion, the state of which is one of its strong features. When the average wage grows faster than inflation, the increase in real incomes of the population makes it possible to count on the growth of consumption and GDP.

I would not be surprised if the sterling will go with the flow in anticipation of a key vote in parliament scheduled for February 26. The submission went over to the side of the US dollar and the publication of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting will be the most important events of the week for the GBP/USD pair.

Technically, the rebound from the level of 50% of the wave CD within the framework of the changes in the Shark pattern at 5-0 was an excellent opportunity for the formation of long positions, which we have repeatedly said in previous materials.

GBP / USD daily graph

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February 18, 2019: EUR/USD is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the lower limit of its channel.

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD pair demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1430 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1430 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery.

This allowed the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

The EUR/USD pair is demonstrating weak bullish recovery around the depicted price zone (1.1300-1.1270) with early signs of bearish reversal probability.

A bearish flag pattern may become confirmed if bearish persistence below 1.1250 is achieved on the daily-chart basis. Pattern target is projected towards 1.1000.

Trade Recommendations:

A counter-trend BUY entry was already suggested near the price level (1.1285) (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel).Stop Loss to be located below 1.1225 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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Analysis of EUR / USD Divergences for February 18. New bearish divergence will push the pair down again?

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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The EUR / USD pair on the 4-hour chart after the formation of the bullish divergence at the MACD indicator made a reversal in favor of the euro and began the process of growth in the direction of the correction level of 23.6% - 1.1358. On February 18, a bearish divergence near the CCI indicator is brewing. The education will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and the resumption of a fall in the direction of the correctional level of 0.0% - 1.1218. Hanging quotes from the Fibo level of 23.6% will similarly work in favor of the beginning of the fall of the pair.

The Fibo grid was built on extremums from September 24, 2018, and November 12, 2018.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, the pair reverted to the correction level of 127.2% - 1.1285. Fixing the pair under this level will work in favor of the US dollar and a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% - 1.0941. Regular quotes from this level will allow us to count on a turn in favor of the EU currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the correction level of 100.0% - 1.1553.

The Fibo grid is built on extremums from November 7, 2017, and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made now with the goal of 1.1358, as the pair completed the closure above the level of 1.1269 (with the formation of bullish divergence), and the Stop Loss order below the level of 1.1269, and keep open purchases until the formation of the bearish divergence.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1219 if the pair perform a rebound from the Fibo level of 23.6% or in case of a bearish divergence, and a Stop Loss order above the level of 1.1358.

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Indian oil signed the first contract for the purchase of American oil for $ 1.5 billion

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the largest oil and gas corporation in India, signed the first annual contract for the purchase of oil from the United States worth $1.5 billion from the United States worth $ 1.5 billion, according to the chairman of Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Sanjiva Singh. The daily volume of oil supplies amounted to 60,000 barrels.

The contract will begin in April and end in March 2020. In addition to signing the contract, the company agreed on conditions for importing up to 3 million metric tons of oil from the United States as part of a strategy to diversify oil suppliers.

Earlier, IOC acquired hydrocarbons from the United States on the spot markets and also concluded a short-term deal to buy 6 million barrels of US oil from November 2018 to January 2019.

Thanks to a new deal, Indian Oil Corporation will be able to reduce its dependence on OPEC, as well as strengthen trade relations between India and the United States.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 18. The pound is trying to maintain the upward momentum

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Pound buyers seem to be hooked on the resistance of 1.2924, and as long as trading will be conducted above this range, you can count on new highs around 1.2986 and 1.3047. A formation of a false breakdown in the afternoon will be a good signal for new purchases. With the scenario of recovery below the support of 1.2924, long positions in the pound can be considered on a rebound from 1.2868 low.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Only a return below the support level of 1.2924 can put pressure on the pound, which will lead to a larger sale to the area of minimum 1.2868, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of continued GBP/USD growth in the second half of the day or news on Brexit, new short positions can be considered after updating the highs of 1.2986 and 1.3047.

More in the video forecast for February 18

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50-medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the pound in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Only a breakthrough of the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2945 will lead to a new increase in the pound. The lower limit in the 1.2885 area will limit the fall, where you can count on long positions.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

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EUR / USD plan for the US session on February 18. The demand for euro remains in the absence of important data

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The buyers managed in the first half of the day with the task of fixing above the resistance of 1.1323, which I paid attention. While trading will be conducted above this range, the demand for the euro will remain that will lead to an update of the highs around 1.1359 and 1.1394, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a return below the support level of 1.1323, it is best to return to long positions immediately to a rebound from the 1.1282 low.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

The bears need to return under the support level of 1.1323, which will allow the sales of the euro to resume to the support area of 1.1282, where I recommend taking profits. Today, the absence of important fundamental statistics in the second half of the day and a low trading volume can save demand for the euro. In this scenario, it is best to consider short positions on a rebound from the maximum of 1.1359.

More in the video forecast for February 18

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted above the 30- and 50- medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the euro in the short term.

Bollinger bands

Growth is limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1335. Its breakthrough will lead to a new rising wave in the euro. A downward correction will be limited by the average boundary of the indicator in the area of 1.1305.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Wave analysis of GBP / USD pair on February 18. The pound still shows signs of life

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Wave counting analysis:

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On February 15, the GBP/USD pair gained about 80 bp. However, if the current wave counting is correct, the pair proceeded to build a downward third wave or c and forms the first two internal waves. There is also a possibility that the last two increases on one decline, which is a nonstandard 2nd wave. Yet, in this case, a descending third wave is expected. Protective orders can be placed just above this level. On the subject of Brexit, nothing new can be said now. Theresa May is going for a to a new voyage across Europe with the aim of new negotiations on the conditions for leaving the European Union.

Purchases targets:

1.3033 - 23.6% Fibonacci

Sales targets:

1.2734 - 61.8% Fibonacci

1.2619 - 76.4% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The wave pattern still assumes the construction of a new downward wave. Thus, now I recommend selling again the instrument with targets located near the estimated marks of 1.2826 and 1.2734, which equates to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci. It is advisable to place protective orders above 1.2917.

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Pound Advances Amid U.K. Minister's Comments On Brexit

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The pound climbed against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday, after a U.K. minister remarked that a no-deal Brexit would have 'serious damage to the economy' and the recent discussions with Brussels have been productive.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, David Lidington, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, told that a no-deal Brexit was 'something that no member of the Cabinet wants to see'.

The recent discussions held with the EU were a lot more than courtesy calls, Lidington told.

"It was a very useful discussion about the politics both within the United Kingdom and within the EU27 and a scoping-out of what was possible."

Prime Minister Theresa May is to hold Brexit talks with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker this week, following a symbolic defeat in Parliament last week.

Investors also looked ahead to the next round of U.S.-China trade talks and pondered over the political fall-out from U.S. President Trump's decision to declare national emergency in a bid to fund his promised wall at the U.S.-Mexico border.

In economic releases, U.K. housing affordability improved at the fastest pace in eight years in February, but annual house price growth remained weak, survey data from the property market data website Rightmove showed.

U.K.'s annual average wage growth of 3.4 percent outstripped asking prices at the fastest rate since 2011, the survey found.

The pound has been trading higher against its major rivals in the Asian session, excepting the euro.

The pound advanced to 1.2979 against the franc, a 4-day high, and was up from a low of 1.2947 hit at 3:15 am ET. Next key resistance for the pound is seen around the 1.32 region.

After falling to 1.2892 against the greenback at 3:15 am ET, the pound reversed direction and climbed to 1.2939. The pound is seen finding resistance around the 1.32 level.

The pound appreciated to a 4-day high of 143.02 against the yen, from a low of 142.50 hit at 5:30 pm ET. If the pound rises further, 144.00 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan core machine orders fell 0.1 percent on month in December - beating expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the flat reading in November.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders were up 0.9 percent - shy of forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.

On the flip side, the pound held steady against the euro, after having eased from a 5-day high of 0.8743 touched at 5:00 pm ET. The pair was valued at 0.8758 at last week's close.

The U.S. markets remain closed for Presidents Day holiday.


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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs for February 18

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Dear colleagues.

The currency pair Euro / Dollar price forms the initial conditions for the top of February 15 and we expect their development after the breakdown of 1.1333. For the Pound / Dollar currency pair, we follow the formation of the expressed initial conditions for the upward cycle of February 14 and the level of 1.2973 is the key resistance. The currency pair Dollar / Franc is following the formation of the downward structure of February 13 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the price is in correction from the upward structure and the upward movement can continue after the breakdown of 110.84. For the currency pair of Euro / Yen, the price issued a local upward structure of February 15 and the level of 124.69 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of February 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 143.43.

Forecast for February 18:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the Euro / Dollar currency pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1423, 1.1406, 1.1379, 1.1360, 1.1333, 1.1305, 1.1287, 1.1268 and 1.1232. We follow the formation of the initial conditions for the top of February 15. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.1333. In this case, the goal is 1.1360 and in the area of 1.1360 - 1.1379 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.1379 should be accompanied by a pronounced move towards the potential target of 1.1406, an in the area of 1.1406 - 1.1423 is the price consolidation, and also from here, we expect a withdrawal into a correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 1.1305 - 1.1287 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 1.1268 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 1.1232.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1333 Take profit: 1.1360

Buy 1.1362 Take profit: 1.1377

Sell: 1.1305 Take profit: 1.1288

Sell: 1.1286 Take profit: 1.1268

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3119, 1.3064, 1.3026, 1.2973, 1.2954, 1.2904, 1.2877 and 1.2839. The price forms the potential initial conditions for the top of February 14 and the development of which is expected after the price passes the range of 1.2954 - 1.2973. In this case, the goal is 1.3026 and in the area of 1.3026 - 1.3064 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3119, after reaching which we expect a departure to a correction.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the area of 1.2904 - 1.2877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.2839.

The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of February 14

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2973 Take profit: 1.3026

Buy: 1.3028 Take profit: 1.3062

Sell: 1.2904 Take profit: 1.2880

Sell: 1.2875 Take profit: 1.2840

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0075, 1.0055, 1.0042, 1.0022, 1.0001, 0.9987, 0.9967 and 0.9956. The price forms the downward structure of February 13. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.0022. In this case, the goal is 1.0001 and in the area of 1.0001 - 0.9987 is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.9987 should be accompanied by a pronounced move to the level of 0.9967. The potential value for the bottom is considered to be the level of 0.9956, near which we expect consolidation.

The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 1.0042 - 1.0055 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. The target is 1.0075 and this level is the key support.

The main trend is the formation of a downward structure of February 13.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0042 Take profit: 1.0055

Buy: 1.0057 Take profit: 1.0075

Sell: 1.0020 Take profit: 1.0001

Sell: 1.0000 Take profit: 0.9988

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.74, 111.32, 111.08, 110.84, 110.42, 110.25 and 109.97. The price is in deep correction from the rising structure on January 31. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 110.84. In this case, the first target is 111.08. The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 111.08 - 111.32 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 111.74, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The range of 110.42 - 110.25 is the key support for the top. Its price passage will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 109.97.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31, a deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.84 Take profit: 111.08

Buy: 111.10 Take profit: 111.30

Sell: Take profit:

Sell: 110.25 Take profit: 110.00

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3341, 1.3297, 1.3272, 1.3251, 1.3217, 1.3193, 1.3178, 1.3134 and 1.3104. The price is close to the cancellation of the ascending structure of February 13, for which a breakdown of level 1.3217 is necessary. In this case, the first target is 1.3193 and the price passage of the range of 1.3193 - 1.3178 must be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. The target is 1.3134. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3104, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the area of 1.3251 - 1.3272 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to the movement to the level of 1.3297. This level is a key resistance for the subsequent development of the upward trend on the H1 scale.

The main trend is the upward structure of February 13, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3251 Take profit: 1.3270

Buy: 1.3274 Take profit: 1.3295

Sell: 1.3215 Take profit: 1.3195

Sell: 1.3176 Take profit: 1.3136

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7249, 0.7219, 0.7197, 0.7168, 0.7132, 0.7113 and 0.7093. We are following the development of the ascending cycle of February 11. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 0.7168. In this case, the target is 0.7197 and in the area of 0.7197 - 0.7291 is the short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7249, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 0.7132 - 0.7113 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The target is 0.7093 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the upward cycle of February 11.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7168 Take profit: 0.7197

Buy: 0.7199 Take profit: 0.7219

Sell: 0.7132 Take profit: 0.7115

Sell: 0.7111 Take profit: 0.7095

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.08, 125.85, 125.50, 125.35, 125.04, 124.88 and 124.69. The price has issued local initial conditions for the top of February 15. The short-term upward movement is expected in the area of 125.35 - 125.50 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The goal is 125.85. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.08, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 125.04 - 124.88 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 124.69 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.35 Take profit: 125.50

Buy: 125.52 Take profit: 125.85

Sell: 125.04 Take profit: 124.88

Sell: 124.86 Take profit: 124.70

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 144.58, 144.13, 143.43, 143.17, 142.61, 142.33 and 141.91. We are following the formation of the ascending structure of February 15. We expect a short-term upward movement in the area of 143.17 - 143.43 and the breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. The target is 144.13. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 144.58, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the area of 142.61 - 142.33 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. The goal is 141.91 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is the formation of the ascending structure of February 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 143.45 Take profit: 144.10

Buy: 144.15 Take profit: 144.55

Sell: 142.61 Take profit: 142.35

Sell: 142.30 Take profit: 141.94

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK Household Finance Index At 11-Month Low

Trading 18 fév 2019 Commentaire »

UK households' assessment of their financial well-being fell to the lowest level in eleven months in February, survey data from the IHS Markit showed on Monday.

The IHS Markit Household Finance Index, or HFI, fell to 43.4 from 44.7 in January, marking the lowest reading since March 2018.

Job security perceptions weakened for the fourth straight month to lowest since January 2018, hurting the year-ahead financial health expectations. February survey showed the highest degree of pessimism regarding job security since January 2018.

Softer growth was seen both work place activity and income from employment.

Meanwhile, living costs rose at an accelerated pace, and the rate of inflation was weak relative to those seen throughout most of 2018.

Expected living cost inflation for the coming 12 months climbed in February, having been among the lowest for two years in January.

The general view among UK households towards UK monetary policy was changed in February by Bank of England. The majority, 79 percent, continued to expect the next move by the Bank of England to be an increase within the next two years.

"The latest HFI survey also signals that the improvement in real earnings growth, which has been driven by higher nominal pay and softer inflation, may not necessarily translate into boosted spending by UK consumers," IHS Markit economist Joe Hayes said.

"The impact on confidence caused by Brexit uncertainty continues to pose a notable risk to the domestic economy, also highlighted by job security perceptions becoming increasingly negative in February."


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