*New Zealand Manufacturing PMI 53.1 In January – BusinessNZ

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

New Zealand Manufacturing PMI 53.1 In January - BusinessNZ


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China Inflation Data Due On Friday

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

China will on Friday release January numbers for consumer and producer prices, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In December, consumer prices were up 1.9 percent and producer prices advanced an annual 0.9 percent.

Japan will provide final December figures for industrial production; the previous reading suggested a decline of 0.1 percent on month and 1.9 percent on year, while capacity utilization was seen higher by 1.0 percent on month.

New Zealand will see January results for the manufacturing PMI from BusinessNZ; in December, the index score was 55.1.

South Korea will release December numbers for current account; in November, the current account showed a surplus of $5.06 billion.


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Dollar Loses Ground Against Peers After U.S. Retail Sales Slide

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar drifted lower against some major currencies on Thursday, after data from the Commerce Department said retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell 1.2% in December.

Retail sales had inched up by a revised 0.1% in November. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2%, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales were down by an even steeper 1.8% in the month, after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales, retail sales were expected to edge up by 0.1%.

According to a report released by the Labor Department, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased in the week ended February 9th.

The report said initial jobless claims rose to 239,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 235,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 225,000 from the 234,000 originally reported for the previous week.

Another report from the Labor Department showed producer prices in the U.S. to have unexpectedly edged lower in January, easing by 0.1% for a second straight month. The index was expected to inch up by 0.1%.

The drop in producer prices was partly due to the sharp drop in energy prices, which plunged by 3.8% in January, after a 4.3% decline in December.

The dollar index, which dropped to 96.95 immediately after the release of retail sales data, rallied to 97.22 subsequently, before retreating again to 97.03.

Disappointing data from Germany continued to raise concerns about eurozone growth, but with eurozone GDP growth coming in line with forecasts, the Euro stayed somewhat steady against the greenback, and was gaining about 0.28%, at $1.1294.

Against Pound Sterling, the dollar prevailed with uncertainty about Brexit weighing on the British currency.

British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit plan suffered to find support of legislators today. The Pound was hovering around $1.2800, losing more than 0.4%.

The Japanese Yen weakened to 111.13 a dollar before recovering well. Currently, the Yen is trading at 110.51 a dollar, gaining about 0.4% from previous close. Against Swiff Franc, the dollar dropped to CHF 1.0054, losing about 0.38%.


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Treasuries Show Notable Rebound On Disappointing Retail Sales Data

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

After trending lower over the past few sessions, treasuries showed a strong move back to the upside during the trading day on Thursday.

Bond prices moved notably higher early in the day and remained firmly positive throughout the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slid 5.1 basis points to 2.657 percent.

The rebound by treasuries came after a report from the Commerce Department unexpectedly showed a substantial decrease in retail sales in December, increasing the appeal of safe havens like bonds.

The Commerce Department said retail sales tumbled by 1.2 percent in December after inching up by a revised 0.1 percent in November.

Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2 percent, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales plunged by an even steeper 1.8 percent in December after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales had been expected to edge up by 0.1 percent.

Sales by gas stations helped lead the way lower amid a drop in gasoline prices, plummeting by 5.1 percent in December following a 4.4 percent nosedive in November.

Underlying sales figures were also troubling, however, as closely watched core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials and food services, tumbled by 1.7 percent in December after an upwardly revised 1.0 percent jump in November.

Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the data suggests the economy entered 2019 with much less momentum than anticipated.

"That doesn't mean the economy is falling into recession; after all, that decline is hard to square with the recent strength of payroll gains and the drop in energy prices in recent months," Pearce said.

He added, "But with the producer price data suggesting inflationary pressures remain contained, it strengthens the case for the Fed to remain 'patient' in the months ahead."

A separate Labor Department report showed producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the month of January.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1 percent for the second straight month in January. Economists had expected the index to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Excluding steep drops in food and energy prices, core producer prices increased by 0.3 percent in January after coming in unchanged in December. Core producer prices were expected to rise by 0.2 percent.

Reflecting the monthly decrease, the annual rate of producer price growth slowed to 2.5 percent in January from 2.8 percent in December.

The annual rate of growth in core producer prices also slipped to 2.6 percent in January from 2.7 percent in the previous month.

Economic data may remain in focus on Friday, with traders likely to keep an eye on reports on import and export prices, industrial production, and consumer sentiment.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Higher On Trade Talks Hopes

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

After early gains, crude oil prices slipped into negative territory on Thursday, but eventually settled on a positive note, regaining lost ground amid optimism the ongoing high level U.S. and China trade discussions might result in the two countries moving closer to reaching a trade deal.

Data from U.S. Commerce Department that showed an unexpected substantial drop in retail sales in December raised concerns about growth and fears of a fall in energy demand.

The Commerce Department report said retail sales tumbled by 1.2% in December after inching up by a revised 0.1% in November. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2%, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales plunged by an even steeper 1.8% in December after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales had been expected to edge up by 0.1%.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended up $0.51, or about 1%, at $54.41 a barrel.

Oil prices rose fairly sharply earlier in the session, buoyed by reports that the U.S. might extend its deadline for implementing additional tariffs on Chinese goods.

According to reports, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, currently in talks with Chinese Vice Premier and other top officials, are scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping tomorrow.


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Gold Settles Slightly Lower

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures settled slightly lower on Thursday, as the dollar, which lost notable ground on disappointing U.S. retail sales data, came off the day's lows as the session progressed.

Traders were closely tracking news about the high level trade discussions between top U.S. and Chinese officials, that kicked off in Beijing earlier in the day. There is optimism about the ongoing talks resulting in a breakthrough of sorts that would help the two largest economies to sort out their differences and work on a long term trade deal.

The Dollar Index, which eased to 96.95 post release of retail sales data, recovered to around 97.20 before retreating again.

Gold futures for April ended down $1.20, or about 0.1%, at $1,313.90 an ounce, after rising to a high of $1,317.35 earlier.

On Wednesday, gold futures ended up $1.10, at $1,315.10 an ounce.

Silver futures for March settled at $15.575 an ounce, losing $0.124 for the session.

Copper futures for March ended up $0.0010, at $2.7740 per pound.

Data released by U.S. Commerce Department showed an unexpected drop in retail sales in the month of December.

The Commerce Department report said retail sales tumbled by 1.2% in December after inching up by a revised 0.1% in November. Economists had expected retail sales to rise by 0.2%, matching the uptick originally reported for the previous month.

Excluding a jump in auto sales, retail sales plunged by an even steeper 1.8% in December after coming in unchanged in November. Ex-auto sales had been expected to edge up by 0.1%.

Data released by the Labor Department showed first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased to 239,000 in the week ended February 9th, up 4,000 from the previous week's revised level of 235,000.

Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 225,000 from the 234,000 originally reported for the previous week.


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U.S. Business Inventories Unexpectedly Edge Down 0.1% In November

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Government shutdown-delayed data released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed an unexpected dip in business inventories in the U.S. in the month of November.

The report said business inventories edged down by 0.1 percent in November after climbing by 0.6 percent in October. Inventories had been expected to rise by 0.3 percent.

The unexpected decrease was partly due to a pullback in retail inventories, which fell by 0.4 percent in November after increasing by 0.8 percent in October.

Manufacturing inventories also slipped by 0.1 percent during the month, while wholesale inventories rose by 0.3 percent.

The Commerce Department also said business sales dropped by 0.3 percent in November after inching up by 0.1 percent in October.

Manufacturing and wholesale sales both decreased by 0.6 percent, while retail sales ticked up by 0.2 percent.

With inventories and sales both falling, the total business inventories/sales ratio was unchanged from the previous month at 1.35.


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BITCOIN Analysis for February 14, 2019

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin's corrective low volume price action is still being squeezed at the edge of $3,600 from where a strong break above is expected. The price has formed Bullish Pennant in the process which if broken above the resistance trend line will push the price higher towards $4,000 area in the coming days. In MACD there is not much to be observed with a low volume in the Histogram. The overall Cryptocurrency market saw strong bearish pressure as JP Morgan launched their own digital coin to help the bank settle payments between clients. The news affected the Bitcoin growth, whereas the bullish pressure are not seen yen on the back of a low trading volume on Bitcoin recently. As the price remains above or contained in $3,500-600 area, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,750, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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*U.S. Business Inventories Edge Down 0.1% In November

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Business Inventories Edge Down 0.1% In November


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U.S. Producer Prices Unexpectedly Edge Lower In January

Trading 14 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Reflecting steep drops in food and energy prices, the Labor Department released a report on Thursday showing producer prices in the U.S. unexpectedly edged lower in the month of January.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand slipped by 0.1 percent for the second straight month in January. Economists had expected the index to inch up by 0.1 percent.

The unexpected dip in producer prices was partly due to the sharp drop in energy prices, which plunged by 3.8 percent in January after plummeting by 4.3 percent in December.

Food prices also showed a substantial pullback, tumbling by 1.7 percent in January after surging up by 2.6 percent in the previous month.

Excluding food and energy prices, core producer prices climbed by 0.3 percent in January after coming in unchanged in December. Core producer prices were expected to rise by 0.2 percent.

The increase in core prices came as prices for final demand services rose by 0.3 percent in January after showing no change in the previous month.

The Labor Department said prices for trade services advanced by 0.8 percent, accounting for over 80 percent of the total increase in prices for services.

Prices for transportation and warehousing services also climbed by 0.5 percent, while prices for other services were unchanged.

Reflecting the monthly decrease, the annual rate of producer price growth slowed to 2.5 percent in January from 2.8 percent in December.

The annual rate of growth in core producer prices also slipped to 2.6 percent in January from 2.7 percent in the previous month.

"With inflation contained, the Fed will be guided by the incoming activity data, which justify its 'patient' stance," said Michael Pearce, Senior U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

On Wednesday, the Labor Department released a separate report showing consumer prices were unchanged for the third straight month in January.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index was unchanged in January, matching the revised reading for December. Economists had expected consumer prices to inch up by 0.1 percent.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices rose by 0.2 percent for the fifth consecutive month. The uptick in core prices matched economist estimates.

The Labor Department said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.6 percent in January from 1.9 percent in December, showing the slowest rate of growth since June of 2017.

Meanwhile, the report said the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged from the two previous months at 2.2 percent.


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