Dollar Eases After 8-session Winning Streak

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

After an eight-session winning streak, the U.S. dollar turned a bit easy on Tuesday as investors looked at riskier assets amid optimism about the outcome of upcoming trade talks between U.S. and Chinese officials.

Somewhat positive developments on border wall funding issue too prompted investors to go for riskier investments.

After preliminary junior level talks between China and the U.S. that began in Beijing on Monday, the much anticipated and more crucial trade negotiations are set to take place over the next couple of days.

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have reportedly arrived in Beijing, and are scheduled to hold talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Thursday and Friday.

Upon arrival in Beijing, Mnuchin is reported to have said, "We're looking forward to several important days of talks."

On border wall front, the U.S. congressional negotiators reached an agreement to avoid new government shutdown and possible finance for the construction of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border.

President Donald Trump has commented that he is not pleased with a tentative agreement reached by the lawmakers. Trump, however, stopped short of saying he would reject the plan.

Trump claimed he would still build a "beautiful, big, strong wall" on the U.S. border with Mexico, and noted that he is still studying the details of the deal, which reportedly includes $1.4 billion for physical barriers on the border, well short of his demand for $5.7 billion for a border wall.

The Dollar Index was hovering around 96.70, down 0.4%, but was still near its highest level since December 2018.

Against the Japanese Yen, the greenback gained about 0.1%.

Against the Euro, the dollar weakened to 1.1329, after rising to 1.1259, a three-month high.

Against British Pound Sterling, the greenback eased to 1.2896, after climbing to 1.2833, a three-week high.

Against Swiss Franc, the dollar is trading at 1.0061, after having eased to 1.0036 earlier.

In economic news today, a report from the Commerce Department showed the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by much more than anticipated in the month of November.

The Commerce Department said the trade deficit narrowed to $49.3 billion in November from a revised $55.7 billion in October. Economists had expected the deficit to narrow to $54.0 billion from the $55.5 billion originally reported for the previous month.

According to the data released by the Labor Department today, first-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits pulled back in the week ended February 2nd after the jump seen in the previous week.

The report said initial jobless claims fell to 234,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 253,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 221,000.


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Treasuries Extend Pullback On Optimism About Avoiding Shutdown

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Extending the pullback seen in the previous session, treasuries moved moderately lower over the course of the trading day on Tuesday.

Bond prices fluctuated early in the day but spent most of the session firmly in negative territory. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 2.3 basis points to 2.684 percent.

With the increase on the day, the ten-year yield climbed further off the one-month closing low that it set last Friday.

The continued weakness among treasuries came amid optimism lawmakers will manage to avoid another government shutdown after negotiators reached a tentative agreement on border security.

Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala., a lead Republican negotiator, said the two sides have reached an "agreement in principle."

The agreement reportedly includes $1.4 billion for physical barriers on the border, well short of the $5.7 billion President Donald Trump has demanded for construction of a border wall.

Democrats have also purportedly agreed to drop their demand to reduce the number of illegal immigrants who can be detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Shelby said the White House was consulted throughout the negotiations, although Trump later expressed displeasure with the terms of the agreement.

Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting at the White House on Tuesday that he is "not happy" with the deal struck by lawmakers but stopped short of saying he would reject the plan.

The president suggested he was "adding things" to the compromise agreement and claimed he would still build a "beautiful, big, strong wall" on the U.S. border with Mexico.

The comments from Trump come as lawmakers face a deadline of midnight on Friday to pass a spending bill and avoid another government shutdown.

Trump said he does not think there will be another shutdown but added, "If you did have it, it's the Democrats' fault."

Optimism about the next round of U.S.-China trade talks taking place this week also reduced the appeal of safe havens like bonds.

A report from Bloomberg said some U.S. officials see the most likely scenario at this week's talks is for Trump to defer his deadline for raising tariffs.

Trump told reporters he could let the deadline "slide for a little while" if the U.S. and China are "close to a deal where we think we can make a real deal, and it's going to get done."

Following two quiet days on the U.S. economic front, trading on Wednesday may be impacted by reaction to a closely watched report on consumer price inflation.


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Oil Futures Settle Higher

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices surged higher on Tuesday, on hopes OPEC-led production cuts and the U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela will help tighten crude supply in the global market.

Saudi Arabia, the world's top crude exporter and de facto leader of OPEC said that it would reduce oil production to nearly 9.8 million barrels per day in March. Earlier, it had pledged to reduce production by 9.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC said it reduced oil output by about 800,000 barrels per day last month to 30.81 million barrels per day.

Slightly easing concerns about energy demand amid optimism about U.S.-China trade talks aided oil's uptick.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for March ended up $0.69, or 1.3%, at $53.10 a barrel.

On Monday, crude oil futures ended down $0.31, or 0.6%, at $52.41 a barrel.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer have reportedly arrived in Beijing for the high-level talks scheduled to take place later this week.

Meanwhile, markets are looking ahead to weekly oil reports. The American Petroleum Institute will release its report later today, while the Energy Information Administration will come out with its crude inventory data on Wednesday morning.


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Gold Settles Modestly Higher As Dollar Retreats

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Gold futures ended higher on Tuesday, as the dollar took a breather after an eight-session winning streak.

Dollar retreated and equities surged higher on news the U.S. congressional negotiators reached an agreement to avoid new government shutdown and possible finance for the construction of new barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border.

The Dollar Index dropped by about 0.4% to 96.67.

Gold futures for April ended up $2.10, or 0.2%, at $1,314.00 an ounce.

On Monday, gold futures for April ended down $6.60, or 0.5%, at $1,311.90 an ounce.

Silver futures for March settled at $15.690 an ounce, unchanged from previous close.

Copper futures for March ended down $0.0180, at $2.7720 per pound.

Although the congressional negotiators reached an agreement on border wall funding, President Donald Trump reportedly said he had yet to decide whether to support the agreement.

Meanwhile, investors were also tracking news on U.S.-China trade issues. Later this week, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He are scheduled to discuss U.S.-China trade issues.


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BITCOIN Analysis for February 12, 2019

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin is currently trading at the edge of $3,600 after retracing back to the price range of $3,500-600 today. As expected the price retested the support area with a daily candle, which is currently pushing higher with a moderate pace while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as support as well. The volume in Bitcoin is currently quite low due to the price pressure. A daily close above $3,600 will signal further bullish momentum with a target towards $4,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,360 from where the price bounced with strong bullish pressure, the bullish momentum will push the price higher in an impulsive way.

SUPPORT: 3,360, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Portugal Inflation Eases To 9-month Low

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Portugal's inflation eased further in January to its lowest level in nine months, preliminary data from Statistics Portugal showed on Tuesday.

The consumer price inflation slowed to 0.5 percent in January from 0.7 percent in December.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and unprocessed food products, rose slightly to 0.8 percent from 0.6 percent in December.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined 1.2 percent in January after falling 0.2 percent in the preceding month.

Inflation based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer prices, or HICP, was 0.6 percent in January, same as in December.

On a month-on-month basis, the HICP fell 1.3 percent percent in January after a 0.4 percent decline in the prior month.


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South Africa Manufacturing Output Growth Slows For Second Month

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

South Africa's manufacturing output slowed for the second straight month in December, preliminary data from Statistics South Africa showed on Tuesday.

Manufacturing output edged up a non-adjusted 0.1 percent year-on-year in December following a 1.3 percent increase in November and a 3.0 percent gain in October.

Food and beverages, motor vehicles, parts and accessories and other transport equipment, and glass and non-metallic mineral products made the biggest positive contributions in December.

Negative contributions came from petroleum, chemicals, rubber and plastic products, iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and machinery industries.

Compared to the previous month, manufacturing output rose 0.7 percent following a 0.4 percent rise in November.


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*U.S. Job Openings Climb To 7.3 Million In December

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Climb To 7.3 Million In December


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EUR / USD Technical Analysis Recommendations on February 12

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

EUR / USD pair

The economic calendar is relatively calm today. Only in the late afternoon, important events are expected including the publication of data on the number of open vacancies on the US labor market at 15.00 London time and Fed speech at 17.45 London time.

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Bears continue to advance. Yesterday, they didn't just test the nearest benchmark at 1.1290, but also confidently closed the previous day below the level. The attention and interests of players for a fall are directed now to the accumulation of support levels in the area of 1.1229 - 1.1186, which is the target for the breakdown of the day cloud + monthly Senkou Span A + monthly Fib Kijun. A Breakdown of this zone will allow to finally exit the correction zone and restore the downward trend at the most senior time intervals. In the case of a retest, the day cloud is still the closest resistance at 1.1357-92.

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The advantage of the bears in the younger halves has shaken. A slight upward correction allowed the majority of technical indicators on H1 to be adjusted in favor of bulls. However, you need to consider that the key levels remain on the side of the bears. In the case of the completion of the upward correction and the resumption of reduction, the support and benchmark levels for today are S1 (1.1251), S2 (1.1227), S3 (1.1188). The less significant first victory of the players to rise can now be considered as a breakdown and consolidation above the central Pivot-level of the day at 1.1290. After that, the bulls will have new perspectives, the weekly long-term trend of 1.1348 will become the most significant guideline.

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At the moment, conditions are emerging for the occurrence of discrepancies but there is no new divergence.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average ( 120)

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BoE's Carney Sees Brexit As First Test Of New Global Order

Trading 12 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The time may have come to reorder globalization to develop a more inclusive and resilient economy and Brexit could be a test for such efforts, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday.

"In many respects, Brexit is the first test of a new global order and could prove the acid test of whether a way can be found to broaden the benefits of openness while enhancing democratic accountability," Carney said in a speech in London.

"Trade tensions abroad and Brexit debates at home are manifestations of fundamental pressures to reorder globalization," he said.

Carney noted that global economic policy uncertainty is at record highs and protectionist rhetoric is becoming reality, with US raising tariffs on imports from main trading partners.

Some have already started to wonder if the global expansion, that began in 2010, could be starting to end, given the confluence of the current broad-based slowdown and outstanding downside risks, the BoE Governor said.

"Consider the UK as a leading indicator of a nascent global trend," Carney said.

He pointed out that UK investment has not grown since the referendum was called and has dramatically underperformed both history and peers, amid the fundamental uncertainty about future market access.

"Similarly, a prolongation of global trade uncertainty could undermine the global expansion," Carney warned.

"The impact would be magnified if financial markets move such a possibility from their tail risks towards their central scenarios."

Carney said Brexit can lead to a new form of international cooperation and cross-border commerce that is founded on a better balance of local and supranational authorities. Hence, Brexit could affect both the short and long-term global outlooks, he added.


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