EUR / USD: Greenback’s winning march continues

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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At the end of last week, the dollar strengthened by more than 1%, demonstrating the best dynamics since August 2018. The winning greenback series can be the longest since February 2017. The USD index has been closing in the green zone for already 6 trading sessions in a row.

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The demand for the dollar as a safe-haven has been aggravated by the heightened uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, as well as the threat of a recurring "shutdown" of the American government that is looming on the horizon.

This week, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and the country's trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, are scheduled to head for the capital city of the Middle Kingdom, where a regular round of talks will take place from February 14 to 15. The period during which the parties have pledged to conclude a trade agreement expires on March 1. If by this time the deal cannot be reached, the United States will raise trade duties from 10% to 25% on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion.

Meanwhile, negotiations between Republicans and Democrats over the financing of the construction of the Trump Wall on the border with Mexico have again reached an impasse.

According to Mick Mulvaney, the acting head of the White House office, if Congress does not allocate funds for these purposes, Donald Trump is ready to again suspend the work of the federal government after February 15.

The introduction of a state of emergency is called as one of the options for overcoming the dispute.

As for the euro, the fundamental factors are now clearly playing against the single European currency. At present, there is some pressure on the euro due to concerns about fourth-quarter German GDP data, which will be published this week. It is assumed that if the German economy slips into a technical recession, then the entire currency bloc will have a hard time. Given the growth of the dollar, the EUR / USD pair should already be trading below the level of 1.13, but the bulls have not yet left hopes to cling to it. However, the breakdown of this mark can serve as a strong "bearish" signal, indicating continued downward movement in the direction of 1.12.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The GBP/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 1.3210 and 1.2913. Last week, the pair dropped from the level of 1.3210 to 1.2913 which coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci on the H4 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 1.3130 and 1.3210; because the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.3010 and 1.2734. Overall, we still prefer a bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 1.3010. Furthermore, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 1.2913, the market will decline further to 1.2734 (daily support 1). Hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2734 to test it again. The level of 1.2704 will form a double bottom. On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 1.3210, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 1.3250.

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Why the dollar continues to grow that threatens the euro and the Australian dollar

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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The dollar starts the week near a six-week high against a basket of major currencies, investors continue to rely on the security of dollar assets against the backdrop of new concerns about trade tensions between the US and China. Negotiations between these countries will be the main topic of this week. The strengthening of the dollar confirms the cautious mood in the market at present. But the Australian dollar and euro are now at a vulnerable level, and a further decline in risk sentiment may lead to a decrease in these currencies. The dollar even added 0.1 percent against the yen, to 109.82 yen, nevertheless, the movement in this pair is likely to be small on Monday, as the Japanese markets are closed on a public holiday.

The United States will put pressure on China in connection with long-standing demands to change its attitude to the intellectual property of American companies, only in this case it will be possible to conclude a trade deal that will stop the increase in tariffs for Chinese imports. US President Donald Trump said he does not plan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping before March 1.

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The strengthening of the dollar is likely to continue, despite the Fed taking a cautious stance. At the moment, investors are choosing the safety of the dollar due to fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy, and this is moving it up. The euro was under pressure, as European debt yields fell to their lowest level in two years. The single currency lost 2.5 percent this month. The European Commission sharply lowered its forecasts for economic growth in the eurozone this year and next, as the largest economies of the block are expected to be constrained by tensions in world trade and domestic problems.

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Control zones of USD/CHF pair 11.02.19

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The first candle of the current week has a range of 105 points, which indicates the implementation of the upward model, with the goal of 1/2 CZ of 1.0050-1.0040. If you take it into account, further developments will depend on whether the close of today's trading will be below the close of Friday. If this happens, the downward movement will come to the fore, otherwise, the upward movement will continue.

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If this candle is not a market quotation, then ascending goals cannot yet be considered. I think it's right to use the maximum of last week to build correctional zones, ignoring today's extremum.

An alternative model of the fall will be developed if the closing of today's trading will occur below the 1/4 CZ f 0.9976-0.9971. This will lead to the formation of a local accumulation zone. The goal of the reduction will be the 1/2 CZ of 0.9924-0.9915, the test of which will determine the further priority for the second half of February.

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Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly CZ - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly CZ - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

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Trading Plan 02/11/2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The main question of the new week is whether there will be a new shutdown in the US?

As we know, the last shutdown was not fully resolved but only delayed until February 15. The question of the dispute of Trump Democrats in financing the construction of the wall on the border with Mexico has not been resolved.

It puts pressure on the markets. In addition, the issue of the British-EU agreement is not showing progress, despite the active attempts of Prime Minister May to find a solution.

Plus, a negative data shows a slowing growth in the eurozone.

While the situation on EUR/USD looks like the intention to break down 1.1285 and start moving down.

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1285.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 11, 2019 for the EUR / USD pair

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a lower fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - down;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - down;

- weekly schedule - down.

General conclusion:

On Monday, the price may continue to move down. The first lower target 1.1291 is a lower fractal.

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Wave analysis of EUR / USD for February 11. The working version remains unchanged.

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Wave counting analysis:

On Friday, February 8, the bidding ended with another 15 bp decrease. Thus, the option of reducing the instrument, at least to the level of 100% Fibonacci, remains in force. There is a need to look at the behavior of the market at about the level of 100.0%. It is possible that the EUR / USD pair will make an unsuccessful attempt to break through this level, which will lead to the transformation of the entire wave structure into a 3 wave. At the same time, there are no visible obstacles for further reduction of the pair within the framework of exactly wave 3 of the downward trend with targets around 12 figures and below. News in the United States and the European Union today should not be based on the calendar.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 100.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Shopping goals:

1.1444 - 38.2% Fibonacci

1.1514 - 50.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

The pair continues to build a downward wave of 3. Thus, now, I still recommend selling EUR / USD instruments with targets near the levels of 1.1284 and 1.1215, which corresponds to 100.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the mark of 1,1289 can lead not only to the departure of quotations from the lows reached, but also to the completion of the downward wave.

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Burning forecast 11/02/2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The euro remains under pressure for several reasons:

1. The forecast for growth in the eurozone was lowered - and as a result - the ECB's super-soft policy

2. The question of the agreement Britain and the EU remains unresolved - and the period of the withdrawal of Britain - the end of March

In this situation, sales are pushing the euro to the lower end of the long range, a break down to the level of 1.1285 and a strong trend movement down is possible.

We sell the euro at a break down 1.1285.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1515.

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Simplified wave analysis of USD / JPY for February 11

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Large-scale graphics:

Since March last year, the bullish wave has been developing, setting the dominant direction to the price trend of the yen major. By the end of the year, the formation of the first 2 parts (A + B) was completed.

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Medium scale graphics:

From January 3, the main course of the short-term set is the ascending wave structure, which potentially will be the final part of the main trend wave. The movement has a pronounced pulse form.

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Small-scale graphics:

On the chart, from January 31, a new upward movement is observed. The waveforms the final part (C) in the model of the older TF. In recent days, the price moves sideways.

Forecast and recommendations:

There are no conditions for the sale of a pair on any of the scale charts. Conditions are being formed for a new uptrend. It is recommended to track the instrument purchase signals.

Resistance zones:

- 111.00 / 111.50

Support areas:

- 109.50 / 109.00

Explanatory notes for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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