BITCOIN Analysis for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin is currently residing above $3,600 area after an impulsive bullish pressure bouncing off the $3,360 support area recently. After breaking above the Triangle resistance with certain Bullish Divergence formation in place, the price managed to push higher above the event area of $3,500-600 with a daily close recently. The price is currently expected to consolidate and correct with certain bearish pressure along the way between the range of $3,500-600 area before it starts to push higher towards $4,000 in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,500, the impulsive bullish pressure is expected to continue further.

SUPPORT: 3,360, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Bitcoin analysis for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Bitcoin spiked higher and tested the price of $3.763. Our profit target at $3.543 has been reached. Anyway, after the spike I found a sideways regime, which usually happens after the climatic activity. Symmetrical triangle is building and you should pay attention for the potential breakout of support or resistance trendline.

Trading recommendation:

Scenario 1 : Bitcoin breaks the resistance trendline $3.685 and test $3.763

Scenario 2 : Bitcoin breaks the support trendline $3.640 and test $3.595.

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February 11, 2019: The EUR/USD pair is already testing the daily uptrend line around 1.3000.

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Further bullish advancement was expected towards the price level of 1.1550 where the upper limit of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) was located.

However, the EUR/USD pair has lost its bullish momentum since January 31 when a bearish engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.1514 where another descending high was established then.

On February 5, a bearish daily candlestick closure below 1.1420 terminated the recent bullish recovery allowing the current bearish movement to occur towards 1.1300-1.1270 where the lower limit of the depicted DAILY channel comes to meet the pair.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders can look for a valid BUY entry around the current price levels (1.1285-1.1300) (lower limit of the depicted movement channel).

S/L to be located below 1.1240 while T/P level to be located around 1.1350 and 1.1420.

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EUR/USD analysis for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price did a breakout of the key short-term multi-pivot trendline (1.3000), which is a sign that sellers are in control. The next important support levels are set at 1.1240 and at the price of 1.1215. The short-term trend is bearish and you should watch for selling opportunities.

Trading recommendation: We are short EUR/USD from 1.1300 with targets at 1.1240 and 1.1216. Protective stop is placed at 1.1335.

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GBP / USD: Great Britain is one step away from recession. Future outlook of the British pound movement

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The British pound has once again tested the strength of the support level of 1.2922, which did not withstand the pressure after the release of disappointing fundamental statistics on the state of the UK economy, which continues to slow against the background of a number of political and economic events.

According to the report, the UK GDP grew by only 0.7% on an annualized basis in the 4th quarter of 2018 against the 2.5% growth in the 3rd quarter. As for December, the economy shrunk by 0.4% compared in November, which indicates an approaching recession.

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It should be noted that the fall of WFP is directly related to the fact that a number of UK companies reduced investment in front of a serious problem, about which only lazy people are not talking recently (which of course refers to Brexit). The growing uncertainty regarding the country's withdrawal from the European Union and the likelihood of indiscriminate exit makes the outlook of not only companies but also consumers to be more cautious in the future, which affects mood and spending. The reduction in investment in 2018 was 0.9%, and this is the strongest drop since 2009 after the financial crisis.

The National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain also noted that the Gross Domestic Product grew by only 1.4% in 2018 compared with the previous year, which is the weakest indicator since 2012.

Against this background, the decline in the UK industrial production does not seem so serious contrary to economic growth forecasts.

According to the data, the industrial production in the UK decreased immediately by 0.5% in December 2018 compared in November and fell by 0.9% versus December 2017. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase in production. November data were revised to -0.3% and -1.3%, respectively.

A serious reduction was also noted in the manufacturing industry, where production fell immediately by 0.7% in December and by 2.1% compared with December 2017. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase in manufacturing.

Without surprise, data on the growth of the UK foreign trade deficit were also perceived.

According to the report, the deficit of foreign trade in goods in the UK amounted to 12.1 billion pounds in December, while it was projected at 12.0 billion pounds. The UK trade deficit with non-EU countries in December was at 3.6 billion pounds.

As for the technical aspect of the GBP/USD pair, surprisingly a serious collapse of the pound did not happen, although important support levels were broken. As long as trading is below the 1.2920 range, pressure on the trading instrument will continue and a breakthrough in the minimum of 1.2890 may lead to a larger sale of the pound with access to the support of 1.2810 and 1.2760.

Having fixed above the resistance of 1.2940, if the bulls return the market position then the trade will move to the side channel with the upper border of 1.3000 and support in the area of 1.2850.

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Analysis of Gold for February 11, 2019

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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Gold has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $1,304.00. According to the H4 time frame, I found that Gold did a successful breakout of the bearish flag pattern (ABC correction) which is a sign that selling continues. I also found confirmed the Head and Shoulders pattern in the background which is another sign of weakness. Key short-term support is set at the price of $1,297.50.

Trading recommendation: We are short on Gold from $1,305.00 and with the targets at $1,297.50-$1,275.80. Protective stop loss order is placed at $1.318.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

UK economy in 2018 worse than in 2012. How will the pound behave?

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The British economy went into decline in the last three months of last year, which resulted in the growth in 2018 to be the weakest in the last six years. Overall, growth rates fell to 1.4 percent compared with 1.8 percent in 2017. Exports are suffering from the weakness of the global economy and both consumers and businesses are increasingly concerned about the lack of a deal to leave Britain from the EU. Last week, the Bank of England lowered its growth forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 1.2 percent this year, which will be the weakest since the 2009 recession.

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Less than seven weeks are left before Britain should leave the EU and Prime Minister Theresa May is still not able to enlist the support of Parliament. Business investment in the fourth quarter fell by 3.7 percent compared with last year, which was the biggest drop since 2010. Household expenditures, which unexpectedly strongly boosted economic growth in the middle of the year, remained stable by 1.9 percent more than a year ago. In general, investments in business were stalled after the referendum in June 2016. The Bank of England expects business and housing investment to decline this year, while export growth will be halved. For the pound, it's hard to call as good news. The currency, which literally not so long ago was able to get rid of political pressure, has again found itself under the weight of unresolved issues by politicians.

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GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 11. Pound collapsed on weak UK GDP data

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The British pound fell in the morning, which allowed buyers to work out my morning scenario in testing the support of 1.2284, which, unfortunately, did not reach several points. As long as trade is conducted above this range, one can count on a continuation of the upward correction. Aa breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.2943 will only strengthen the demand for GBP/USD pair, which will lead to further growth in the area of maximum 1.2997, where I recommend fixing profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound today in the afternoon, long positions can return to the rebound from a minimum of 1.2852.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears failed to maintain a downward impulse after the expected weak data released on the UK economy. For the second half of the day, the task is to form a false breakdown in the area of resistance at 1.2943, which may lead to new sales of GBP/USD in order to break through support 1.2884 and update the minimum 1.2852, where I recommend taking profits. In case of growth above 1.2943, a maximum to 1.2997 will be acceptable for short positions today.

More in the video forecast for February 11

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is very low, and a breakthrough of the upper border around 1.2948 will lead to a larger increase in the pound.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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February 11, 2019: GBP/USD is demonstrating bullish weakness around the backside of the broken trend.

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240.

That's when the current bearish pullback was initiated around slightly lower price levels near 1.3215 (around the depicted supply levels in RED).

This was followed by a bearish engulfing daily candlestick on January 29. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155 as a result.

As expected, the recent bearish decline below 1.3150 brought the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction towards 1.2920-1.2950 where (38.2% Fibonacci level) as well as the backside of the depicted broken trend are located (in RED).

However, lack of bullish demand is being demonstrated on the current daily candlestick. Hence, the short-term scenario remains bearish towards 1.2800 unless bullish breakout above 1.2920 is re-established early.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for further bearish decline towards 1.2825-1.2800 as a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2760.

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The United States faces shutdown again

Trading 11 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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The negotiations that took place in the US Congress last weekend again did not bring the desired results on the issue of border security, which threatens the likelihood of a deal to further finance the US government this Friday. And it threatens the new "Shutdown."

The immigration issue again became a stumbling block in the negotiations, in particular, the demand of Democrats to reduce the number of beds for illegal migrants in temporary detention centers of the US Immigration Service from 38 thousand to 16 thousand. In addition, representatives of the Democratic Party are demanding an increase in the number of judges dealing with illegal immigrants and also allocate additional funds for the installation of tracking and control systems at the border with Mexico. Donald Trump is extremely dissatisfied with the position of the Democrats, calling their actions "irrational."

Recall that if the issue is not resolved by next Friday, the financing of the American government will again be suspended, as will its activities.

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