Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on February 5

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we are following the downward structure of January 31 and in order to continue the upward movement, it is necessary to design the local structure. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the development of the downward cycle of January 28 is expected after the price passes the range of 1.3015 - 1.2991. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, we are watching the initial conditions for the top of January 31. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the upward structure development from January 31 is expected to continue after the breakdown of 110.22. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the price has issued local initial conditions for the top of February 1. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, we are following the local structure from February 1 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 144.00.

Forecast for February 5:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

D843bg0J-zyo-flhwEWtVeu5Q9Kw60YyJf7vDZMN

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1548, 1.1514, 1.1467, 1.1415, 1.1387 and 1.1353. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of January 31 and in order to continue the development of the upward trend, it is necessary to design the local structure. The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.1415 - 1.1387 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the potential target of 1.1353, near which we expect consolidation.

The level of 1.1467 is the key support for the downward structure. Its price passage will have to form local initial conditions for the resumption of the upward trend. Here, the first goal is 1.1514.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1467 Take profit: 1.1512

Buy 1.1516 Take profit: 1.1546

Sell: 1.1413 Take profit: 1.1390

Sell: 1.1385 Take profit: 1.1355

z12RJ4RSni1rxgMAztQ6Oj_qrUHzEU33NIS0Ng-c

For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3181, 1.3068, 1.3015, 1.2991, 1.2929 and 1.2885. Here, we are following the downward cycle of January 28th. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.3015 - 1.2991. In this case, the target is 1.2929. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2885, after reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a possible rollback to the correction.

The corrective movement is possible in the range 1.3068 - 1.3118 and the breakdown of the last value will have to form a local ascending structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.3181.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 28.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3068 Take profit: 1.3116

Buy: 1.3119 Take profit: 1.3180

Sell: 1.2990 Take profit: 1.2930

Sell: 1.2927 Take profit: 1.2885

YD7pIm4TOwo_v4SGPk1AkobpG4iZbdzLT0y8AE2O

For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0081, 1.0058, 1.0025, 0.9999, 0.9972, 0.9959 and 0.9939. Here, after the cancellation of the formation of the downward structure of January 30, we are monitoring the initial conditions for the top of January 31. The continuation of the upward trend is expected after the breakdown of 1.0000. In this case, the goal is 1.0025 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.0025 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.0058. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0081, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9972 - 0.9959 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.9939.

The main trend is the initial conditions for the top of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.0000 Take profit: 1.0022

Buy: 1.0027 Take profit: 1.0055

Sell: 0.9972 Take profit: 0.9960

Sell: 0.9957 Take profit: 0.9940

I7gH-jCigEj5HPOxbU0tX7XCvEyyUcbPdADKwhou

For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 111.32, 111.08, 110.66, 110.22, 109.64, 109.34 and 109.01. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 31. The movement upwards is expected after the breakdown of 110.22. Here, the target is 110.66 and consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 110.66 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 111.08. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 111.32, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 109.64 - 109.34 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 109.01 and this level is the key support for the upward structure. Its breakdown will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the first target is 108.48.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 31.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 110.22 Take profit: 110.65

Buy: 110.68 Take profit: 111.08

Sell: 109.64 Take profit: 109.36

Sell: 109.32 Take profit: 109.03

ShK4R9OIaPAfx5Dx345cizULx6UZgsfODuGULnGf

For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3190, 1.3139, 1.3114, 1.3074, 1.3026 and 1.2973. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of January 24. At the moment, the price is in the zone of correction. The continuation of the downward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.3074. In this case, the goal is 1.3026 and price consolidation is near this level. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.2973, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The short-term uptrend is possible in the range of 1.3114 - 1.3139 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a deep correction. Here, the target is 1.3190 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward structure of January 24, the stage of correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3114 Take profit: 1.3137

Buy: 1.3141 Take profit: 1.3190

Sell: 1.3072 Take profit: 1.3030

Sell: 1.3025 Take profit: 1.2975

eIWrmxva2511PGBHFKcZGVQ744tiMFKWfzvG-f8I

For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7359, 0.7336, 0.7296, 0.7267, 0.7225, 0.7208 and 0.7184. Here, we continue to monitor the ascending structure of January 25. At the moment, the price has issued a local potential for the top of February 5. An upward movement is expected after breakdown of 0.7267. In this case, the target is 0.7296 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 0.7296 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 0.7336. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 0.7359, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7225 - 0.7208 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 0.7184 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 25, the local structure for the top of February 5.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7268 Take profit: 0.7294

Buy: 0.7298 Take profit: 0.7336

Sell: 0.7225 Take profit: 0.7208

Sell: 0.7206 Take profit: 0.7184

pCDwFZApfpVKA06a2ONHdsUjod64kh_lR8GTncIG

For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 126.89, 126.46, 125.89, 125.15, 124.91, 124.53 and 123.74. Here, the price has issued local initial conditions for the top of February 1. The continuation of the movement upward is expected after the breakdown of 125.90. In this case, the goal is 126.46 and near this level is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 126.89, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 125.15 - 124.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 124.53 and this level is the key support for the top. Its price will have a downward trend. In this case, the potential goal is 123.74.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of February 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.90 Take profit: 126.44

Buy: 126.47 Take profit: 126.89

Sell: 125.15 Take profit: 124.91

Sell: 124.88 Take profit: 124.55

vdKbOx15vdYz1CMCEtDIXA66LULPERZl-4kQUQuh

For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 146.68, 145.74, 144.86, 144.00, 142.69, 142.12 and 141.37. Here, we continue to monitor the local structure for the top of February 1. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 144.00. In this case, the first target is 144.86 and the breakdown of which will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 145.74. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 146.68, upon reaching which we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 142.69 - 142.12 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 141.37 and this level is the key support for the top.

The main trend is a local rising structure from February 1.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 144.00 Take profit: 144.80

Buy: 144.88 Take profit: 145.74

Sell: 142.69 Take profit: 142.14

Sell: 142.10 Take profit: 141.40

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for February 05, 2019

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c59658e31b97.png

The GBP/USD pair made a successful change in trend behavior from bullish to bearish. The key resistance at 1.3215 held successfully and the sellers started the distribution process. Short-term trend remains bearish and we are still holding our short position.

Blue lines - bearish channel

GBP/USD is in a bearish trend making lower highs and lower lows. Price is below the Ichimoku cloud and both the tenkan- and kijun-sen indicators plus below the pivot level (1.3054) and yesterday's low (1.3028). As long as we trade below the Ichimoku cloud on the H1 time – frame, the trend remains bearish.

Trading recommendation: We are still short on GBP/USD from 1.3052 but we secured our position on breakeven (SL moved to entry level 1.3052). The downward target is set at the price of 1.2965.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Gold for February 05, 2019

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c5962cf48860.png

Sellers are in control on Gold. We found a confirmed head and shoulders pattern, which is another strong sign of weakness. The price did small upward correction and fund support at $1.308.00 but in my opinion only temporary. The key short-term resistance remains at $1.323.00. As long as this resistance is holding, you should watch for selling opportunities. The breakout of short-term support at the price of $1.308.00 would confirm a potential test of $1.297.75.

R1: $1.324.00

R2: $1.329.70

R3: $1.335.60

Pivot: $1.318.20

S1: $1.313.75

S2: $1.307.60

S3: $1.302.56.

Trading recommendation: We are still short on Gold from $1.311.00 and protective stop at $1.322.00. The first objective target is set at the price of $1.297.75.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for February 5, 2019

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive amid the recent bullish momentum. The price is holding at the edge of 110.00-50 resistance area with a daily close. Ahead of macroeconomic data from the US this week, JPY has been quite solid amid the recently published economic reports while the Bank of Japan is busy with the wage recalculation process.

Recently Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda today stated that there is no change in the central bank's assessing the economy after finding errors which forced the labor ministry to revise monthly wages data. The labor ministry is expected to recalculate data by this week that is expected to dent policymakers' hopes for sustained inflation. Recently BoJ Monetary Base report was published with a slight decrease to 4.7% from the previous value of 4.8% which was expected to be worse, decreasing towards 4.6%.

On the USD side, the Federal Reserve is currently quite patient to take decisions on interest rates. Citing Cleveland FED President Mester, it is the best approach in the current situation. Nevertheless, to boost the US economic growth the interest rates remain appropriate to current GDP rates, so further rate hikes are needed. Today US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 57.2 from the previous value of 57.6 and later President Donald Trump is also going to speak about the US-Mexico deal which is expected to contribute to USD gains.

Meanwhile, JPY is quite strong in comparison to USD. Upcoming economic report and events in the US could make a bearish impact on USD. Thus, JPY may hold the upper hand in the short term.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of 110.00 area while developing Bearish Divergence in the MACD Histogram. As the price remains below 110.50 area with a daily close, there are certain chances for the bears to push the price lower towards 108.50 support area in the coming days before the price starts to climb higher in the future.

SUPPORT: 108.50

RESISTANCE: 110.00-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c5962090311a.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro and pound under pressure due to fears of a recession approaching

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Eurozone

There is no opportunity for the bad news of the euro to end. The indicator of investor confidence Sentix declined for the sixth time in a row, reaching -3.7p, which was the lowest since November 2014.

The analytic group Sentix believes that the main reason for the decline is waiting for Brexit as the economy has to deal with contingency plans. Many companies, one way or another connected with trade between the UK and the EC, do not have a desire for growth and are looking for ways to keep their business stable.

Until recently, respondents had not yet anticipated the onset of a recession, but the rhetoric of the Central Bank is becoming more and more dovish and along with a decrease in investor confidence, consumption and retail sales are down.

_g5ristzt6BJkCtraDU2Ef_kPEKqs3B21Re3MpI5

The GDP growth of 0.2% in the last quarter of the past year and published macroeconomic data indicate that in the first quarter of 2019, there is no reason to expect economic recovery. The PMI indices are at 5-year low and if in France and Spain there are some signs of stabilization, then Germany falls in all sectors without exception. Italy has already plunged into recession.

The ECB finally acknowledged the lack of strong growth and changed the risk assessment. At the same time, the ECB did not make any changes in the monetary policy. Thus, investors need to wait for the March meeting to understand how much the changed assessment will affect the regulator's plans. So far, only two parameters support a relatively positive decision, is it stable inflation and wage growth in the eurozone? But, will there be enough of them to continue the growth of the euro?

Today, the EUR / USD pair is under pressure. The nearest support is at 1.1405 and 1.1389 , however, a deeper decline is still unlikely.

Great Britain

The PMI in the services sector fell to 50.1p in January and closely approaching the border, below which is the beginning of a recession and the minimum value since July 2016. The economic growth in the last quarter was minimal in six years while employment in the sector fell for the first time also in six years.

0tfoQUIH5v6m60wbIpJd467Xyjge7LCPHkfmgHI2

The pound continues to be under pressure against the backdrop of growing political uncertainty due to Brexit. Two reasons are known to bring growth to the pound in January. Firstly, it is due to the completion of negotiations and secondly, the development of a decision that brought the parties closer to a compromise. However, this decision intensified the domestic political crisis in Britain.

The main financial threat does not matter at all in matters of migration policy and not in matters of trade, which can be completely settled by a separate agreement. The main threat is that British financial institutions will lose or significantly weaken their influence on continental cash flows. At the moment, this is the main reason that could lead to increased pressure on the pound in the event that "Plan B" does not receive support in parliament.

The GBP/USD pair declines on Tuesday with the nearest support level at 1.2995 / 3010. It draws the mouth before the end of the day since there are no reasons for turning north. The decline can go without correction up to 1.2953 / 65. If there is at least some negative news about the upcoming vote, the probability of which is rather high.

Oil

Brent continues to trade above $62 per barrel, reflecting the change in the Fed's position and the activity of OPEC + countries to reduce production levels. Stock indices of most countries of the world are growing. Against this background, oil has a chance to go above 63.60 in search of stronger resistance.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 05, 2019

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c595fe5eb6bf.png

Overview:

The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the level of 0.7046 which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards the first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of the currency pair EUR / GBP for February 5

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Large-scale graphics:

Since April of last year, the rising wave has been developing on the chart of the motocross pair. In its structure, the middle part (B) is nearing completion.

Gr1MGPmoiAI2urzTA2W9RwoqcHO4AitORO3i0rPo

Medium scale graphics:

The bearish stretch of December 10 in the larger wave model formed a correction. The price has reached the potential reversal zone, but signals of a quick change of course are not yet observed.

-_B7MDIAbei2QXZBNNrgkg4SmFhbZYxgqVGq5CCL

Small-scale graphics:

From the powerful support from January 25, the price started upwards, forming the basis for a potentially reversing design. In the coming days, followed by a rollback down.

Forecast and recommendations:

The price of the cross expects movement in the "side", which will allow the current price rise to gain the necessary level to change the short-term trend. Trading in such conditions is quite risky, the best solution would be to refrain from trading.

Resistance zones:

- 0.8790 / 0.8840

Support areas:

- 0.8630 / 0.8580

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Wave analysis of EUR / USD pair for February 5. Euro currency continues to descend slowly within wave 3

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Wave counting analysis:

E5Hvqqx9FHdcx3rC9pM2LgXZFuLIyovf73wGdcla

On Monday trading, February 4, it ended with a slight decline for the EUR/USD pair by 15 bp. Thus, the current wave counting maintains its integrity and implies the construction of a downward wave 3 within the framework of a new downtrend trend. If the current version is not correct but an alternative version is being developed with a three wave structure, which we have seen several times before, I still expect the instrument to decline to the level of 1.1290. The news background is not strong now. Several indices of business activity in various fields from Europe and America, which will be released today, are unlikely to break or significantly change the current wave counting.

Sales targets:

1,1289 - 0.0% Fibonacci

1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci

Purchase targets:

1.1502 - 76.4% Fibonacci

1.1569 - 100.0% Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:

Presumably, the pair moved to the construction of a downward wave of 3. Thus, I still recommend now selling the instrument with targets located near the marks of 1,1289 and 1.1215, which equals 0.0% and 0.0% Fibonacci. The 50.0% level on the higher Fibonacci grid is the first reference for both wave 2 and for all further development of the downward trend segment. Above it, you can place protective orders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Simplified wave analysis of the currency pair USD / CHF for February 5

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Large scale graphics:

On the daily scale of the major franc chart, the last wave is ascending. Its countdown began in February last year. The structure is fully completed the first 2 parts (A + B). In the last part, the preparation for the final price spurt is completed.

dzNDyr97eG2S78I9_tfxmV6P6S1su5HWh7utiWNy

Medium scale graphics:

In the ascending wave of January 10 in the last week, the middle part of the structure (B) is being formed. The wave has the wrong kind of structure.

73-rue37NERHoqpgUiW8GBblRPl3N--V-GwXaseX

Small-scale graphics:

The bullish section of January 31 does not yet have a reversal potential. Before lifting, one should wait for repeated pressure on the support area.

Forecast and recommendations:

The price of the franc in the coming days will continue lateral movement between the nearest oncoming zones. In the area of settlement support, supporters of the inter-day trading style are advised to track long entry signals.

Resistance zones:

- 1.0030 / 1.0080

Support areas:

- 0.9910 / 0.9860

Explanations for the figures: The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). The analysis uses 3 consecutive scale graph. Each of them analyzes the last, incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure, the dotted - the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD. February 5th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". Brexit: The collapse of hopes of Theresa May?

Trading 05 fév 2019 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

PKUp3B1cCWrKArnEPolGelkc__UN-n7IsS9QLzUP

Technical details

The senior linear regression channel: direction - up.

The younger linear regression channel: direction - up.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - down.

CCI: -117.6714

The currency pair GBP / USD on Tuesday, February 5, has fixed below the moving average line and continues not a too strong downward movement. Meanwhile, the main negotiator from the EU, Michel Barnier, said that the EU would not return to negotiations on the terms of the UK exit from the alliance. According to Barnier, a safety plan is the only working option on the Irish border at the moment. At the same time, the EU is ready to conduct further work on alternative solutions, but only during the transition period. Earlier, similar statements came from other EU leaders, including Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker. Thus, this means that EU leaders do not intend to sit down at the negotiating table and make additional concessions. At the same time, the British Parliament is not ready to accept the Brexit plan in the form in which it is now. And the stumbling block is the question of the Northern Ireland border. Interesting. The next parliamentary vote is scheduled for February 13th. What may change in the next 8 days? Hardly much. A typical situation, which is called "Path." However, one of the parties still have to make concessions, otherwise we are waiting for the "hard" version of Brexit, which the UK is also not satisfied. Continues to follow the situation.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.3000

S2 - 1.2939

S3 - 1.2878

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.3062

R2 - 1.3123

R3 - 1.3184

Trading recommendations:

The currency pair GBP / USD continues the downward movement, so now short positions with targets at 1.3000 and 1.2939 are relevant. Heikin Ashi's reversal to the top will indicate a round of upward correction.

Orders for the purchase can be re-considered in the event of a reverse price fixing above the moving with the first target of 1.3123. But as we have said, there are no fundamental reasons for the new growth of the pound.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The junior linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com