Recent bearish rejection being applied over the EUR/USD pair around the upper limit of the daily channels for February 1,

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »


Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency within the depicted bearish Channel (In RED).

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the current bullish movement above the depicted short-term bullish channel (In BLUE) was initiated.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance a further bullish movement towards 1.1520.

However, the market has been demonstrating obvious bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times until Monday when the daily candlestick achieved a bullish closure above 1.1420.

A further bullish advance should be expected towards the price level of 1.1550 where the upper limit of both depicted channels (RED & BLUE) is located.

Around 1.1550-1.1570, there's a confluence of supply levels (upper limit of channels & previous historical bottoms) where bearish rejection as well as a valid SELL entry would be expected.

On the other hand, any bearish closure below 1.1420 terminates the current bullish movement (initiated on January 25) allowing another bearish visit towards 1.1350 and 1.1300.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for the current bullish pullback to pursue towards the price level of 1.1550-1.1570 for a valid SELL entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.1420 and 1.1300. S/L to be located above 1.1600.

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Simplified Wave Analysis GOLD for the week of February 1

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Euro buyers returned to the resistance level of 1.1471, to which I paid attention in my morning review, but in order to continue the upward correction, you need to gain a foothold on it. This can be done only after weak data is released on the US labor market, which are expected in the afternoon. A break of 1.1471 will lead to a larger upward trend in the area of a weekly high of 1.1506, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a further euro decline in the second half of the day, you can buy on a false breakdown from 1.1434 or already on a rebound from a minimum of 1.1393.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Vendors have already shown themselves in the resistance area of 1.1471 and good statistics on the US labor market can quickly turn the euro down, which will lead to the updating of today's low of 1.1434. Then, the EUR / USD will likely fall to the support area of 1.1393, where I recommend to fix profits. In case of further euro growth in the second half of the day, short positions will be relevant only after the update of the maximum of 1.1506, where buyers will also record their long positions at the end of the week.

More in the video forecast for February 1

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which limits the upward potential of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The pair has rested against the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and only its breakdown will lead to a new wave of growth. The lower limit around 1.1430 will help euro buyers in the event of a fall in the afternoon.


Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Simplified Wave Analysis GOLD for the week of February 1

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Large-scale graph:

The main direction of the gold trend since August last year looks at the "north" of the chart. The wave is the final part of the global ascending model.


Medium-scale graph:

The bullish section of the schedule of November 13 forms the final part (C) in a larger structure. The lower boundary of the preliminary target zone is in the area of the calculated resistance.


Small-scale graph:

The bullish wave launched on December 21. It completes the ascending structure in the wave of the older timeframe. In the coming days, a short-term price pullback is not excluded.

Forecast and recommendations:

The trend in the growth rate of gold continues which can benefit traders. The support zone is found on the level of former resistance that is suitable for completing the rollback.

Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

Support areas:

- 1300.0 / 1295.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

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EUR / USD: the recipe for "survival" of the euro

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

At the end of last year, the head of the European regulator warned that the EU economy would gradually slow down, given the dynamics of leading indicators and he was not mistaken. The key countries of the European Union published depressing data in early January.


First of all, the data on inflation in Germany was a disappointment. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index dropped to -0.8% for the first time since January 2018, falling to the negative area and 1.4% in annual terms. The negative trend for the third month in a row continues. Retail sales in Germany also set an anti-record, the indicator collapsed immediately to -4.3% on a monthly basis with a decline forecast to -0.5%.

The release data on the growth of European GDP was at the level of forecasts, confirming the slowdown in the European economy to 1.2% in annual terms. Another disappointment with the Italian economy showing a negative result in December. The index of Italian GDP is below zero for the second month in a row - in other words, the third largest eurozone economy has entered a stage of technical recession. Moreover, the Italian Prime Minister predicted a decline in GDP during the first two quarters of the current year.

In the quintessence of the current situation is today's release of data on the growth of European inflation. The consumer price index has expectedly slowed to 1.4%, falling for the third consecutive month. Last October, this indicator was at the level of 2.2%, but then this index began to follow the oil market, which also began to rapidly lose in price since mid-autumn. By the way, the core inflation today has pleasantly surprised the EUR/USD bulls and most experts expected to see this indicator at one percent level, but in the end, it turned out to be slightly higher - at around 1.1%. However, this is not a reason for any excessive optimism as the core index of inflation has been in the range of 0.9% -1.1% since May last year. Hence, today's figures can only please us by not exceeding its lower bounds.

All of these suggest that the European Central Bank is very likely to take a waiting position this year, thereby depriving the single currency of an important trump card, even representatives of the "hawk" camp of the ECB recognize this fact. In this context, yesterday's speech by the head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann, who has consistently defended the idea of a return to a tight monetary policy, was instructive. However, he has somewhat softened his position today. He said that the growth of the German economy this year will be even lower than the revised forecasts.

Let me remind you that this week, the German Ministry of Economics reported that they are reducing their forecast for the growth of the national economy this year to 1%. But the real result in Weidmann's opinion, will be even below weak forecasts. At the same time, he acknowledged that the fact of a slowdown in Europe's largest economy will serve as a "deterrent" for the ECB in the context of a decision on interest rates. Earlier, a similar position was expressed by two more members of the governing council of the European regulator.

Given the above disposition, a logical question arises: why is the EUR/USD pair so steadfastly keeping in the area of the 14th figure without leaving the price range of 1.1380-1.1490? In my opinion, such a dynamic is initially because of the general weakness of the dollar and secondly, in hope for a truce between the US and China. These factors correspond to each other but they affect the EUR/USD pair differently. In particular, the dovish attitude of the Fed eliminates the negative effect of European statistics, supporting the pair in a given range.

However, the success of the US-China negotiations is pushing the pair up. True, lately there is less and less good news in this aspect: the "Huawei case" and the new requirements of Donald Trump reduced the likelihood of a broad deal in the near future. For this reason, the EUR/USD pair showed a southern momentum yesterday, rolling away from local maxima but today the situation has somewhat changed. Chinese President Xi Jinping said that he was ready to continue negotiations with President Trump, despite all the surrounding circumstances (the next round of negotiations will take place in mid-February). The euro's reaction is coming not long and once again demonstrates a "hawkish" attitude, despite the decline in the German economy and pan-European inflation figures.


Thus, traders of the euro-dollar pair are now focusing more on US events and the external fundamental picture, primarily in the context of the prospects for the negotiation process between Beijing and Washington. Therefore, today's northern impulse of EUR/USD pair may continue if American nonfarm disappoint the market. In this case, the dollar index will again go to the bottom of local minima, and the euro major pair will be able to test the 15th figure again.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 1, 2019

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »


On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when a bearish Engulfing candlestick was demonstrated around 1.2999 (around the depicted downtrend line in RED).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 when the current bearish pullback was initiated around 1.3215.

A bearish engulfing daily candlestick was demonstrated by the end of Tuesday's consolidations. Thus, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish breakout above 1.3155. Thus, an intraday supply level is currently located around 1.3155.

The current decline below 1.3150 will probably bring the GBP/USD pair into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

On the other hand, for the bullish scenario to regain its validity, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Recent Supply Level) should be re-established on a daily basis. This would enhance another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for a bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3155 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

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Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 01, 2019

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »



The NZD/USD pair breached resistance which had turned into strong support at the level of 0.6705 this week. The level of 0.6705 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The RSI is considered to be overbought, because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). Besides, note that the pivot point is seen at the point of 0.6882. This suggests that the pair will probably go up in the coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended to be placed above 0.6800 with the first target at the level of 0.6882. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6882 and further to the level of 0.6984. The level of 0.6984 will act as strong resistance. However, if there is a breakout at the support level of 0.6705, this scenario may become invalidated.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 01, 2019

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »



The GBP/USD pair will continue rising from the level of 1.3048 today. So, the support is found at the level of 1.3048, which represents the pivot point in the H1 time frame. Since the trend is above the pivoti level, the market is still in an uptrend. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair is continuing with a bullish trend from the new support of 1.3048. The current price is set at the level of 1.3080. Equally important, the price is in a bullish channel. According to the previous events, we expect the GBP/USD pair to move between 1.3048 and 1.3139. Therefore, strong support will be formed at the level of 1.3048 providing a clear signal to buy with the targets seen at 1.3139. If the trend breaks the support at 1.3139 (first resistance), the pair will move upwards continuing the development of the bullish trend to the level 1.3222 in order to test the daily resistance 2. In the same time frame, resistance is seen at the levels of 1.3048 and 1.3222. The stop loss should always be taken into account for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.2959.

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Trading Plan 02/01/2019

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

The big picture: We are waiting for data on employment in the US.

The main plots in recent weeks have become clear.

The ECB is firm in its super-soft policy are there is no increase in the rate at least until Autumn.

On the other hand, the Fed's soft policy have no promise to raise the rate.

The question about the shutdown in the USA has been postponed until February 15. It is most likely that there will be no more stopping of financing.

The US-China trade negotiations are being delayed.

Concerning the UK-EU agreement on life after Brexit, Theresa May is trying to gather Labor support and promising them concessions on other important issues. However, the pound shows that the markets have already laid in prices for Britain's exit from the EU without an agreement.

The question of employment (nonpharma) in the USA for January remains with a forecast of adding 160 to 180 thousand.

A strong deviation from the forecast can swing the market.

We are ready to buy euros from 1.1515 .

We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1285.


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WTI crude oil prices rose in January

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

According to experts, the results of the past month showed an increase in WTI oil quotes by 18.67% to $ 53.90 per barrel. This is the most impressive growth for the first month of the year in the entire history of trading, analysts emphasized.


On Thursday, January 31, quotes for March futures for WTI oil on the NYMEX exchange reached $ 55 per barrel. Since the beginning of this year, its price has increased by almost $ 9 per "barrel".

According to the calculations of the consulting company of OPEC, JBC Energy, recorded a decrease in the cartel's production level to 30.85 million barrels per day (b/d) in January 2019. The reason for the fall of experts believes the reduction of supply from Saudi Arabia. In general, the execution of the OPEC + contract of December 7 last year was implemented by 109%.

Russia also met the specified schedule of reductions. According to the Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation, Alexander Novak, the level of oil production in the country in January decreased by 50 thousand compared with the level of October 2018. At the same time, the January figure was about 100 thousand b/d lower than in December last year.

According to a US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, oil production in the country rose to an impressive 11.9 million b/d in November 2018. At the same time, production volumes in the Gulf of Mexico were revised from 1.73 million to 1.92 million b/d. This indicator is a record for this region. The maximum oil production figures for this period recorded 4.84 million b/d extracted in Texas.

Market participants are positive about the results of the negotiations between the United States and China. They count on the mutual agreement of the parties. According to analysts, this reduces the risk of exacerbating protectionism and reducing global demand. The Fed meeting held on Thursday is also a driver for the growth of quotes. The American regulator believes that further increase in rates will depend on the market situation. A number of experts do not expect an increase in rates in the first half of 2019 and some expect to maintain the current situation in the next three quarters.


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Indicator analysis. Daily review for February 1, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trading 01 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Strong calendar news is expected today at 11.55 (neutral), 4:30 pm (positive), 6:00 pm (positive) Moscow time.

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price before the news (16.30 Moscow time) will move up in the side channel. The first upper target 1.1502 is the resistance line (red bold line).


Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - neutral;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - down;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price before the news (16.30 Moscow time) will move up in the side channel. The first upper target 1.1502 is the resistance line (red bold line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -