The director of Tesla will leave the company because of a loss of $ 1 billion

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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The head of the American manufacturer of electric cars Tesla Elon Musk announced that the financial director of the company Deepak Ahuja will leave his post this year amid unsatisfactory financial results.

In 2018, Tesla suffered a loss of $ 976 million, but compared with the previous year, it declined more than twice, the previous year the figure was $ 1.9 billion.

At the same time, the company achieved record revenue of $ 21.4 billion, in the fourth quarter it was $ 7.2 billion. The last two quarters for the company were successful, in the third quarter the net profit of the manufacturer of electric cars reached $ 311.5 million, in the fourth, $ 139.4 million.

Earlier, on January 18, Musk said that the company would cut 7% of employees (3,400 people) in order to reduce costs to increase production volumes of Tesla Model 3 electric vehicles.

The head of the company called 2018 the worst in his career, during which he aged for five years.

During yesterday's trading, Tesla's stock price rose by 3.80%, to $ 308.77, the maximum since January 18.

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The most significant decline in oil production in OPEC is expected in the last two years

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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In January, oil supplies by OPEC countries decreased the most in the last two years, according to a Reuters survey, since the largest exporter, Saudi Arabia, is the only one operating at full capacity, while in Iran, Libya and Venezuela there is a decrease. The 14-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.98 million barrels per day in January, down 890,000 barrels per day compared to December and the largest decline since January 2017.

Recall oil rose to $ 62 per barrel after falling below $ 50 in December, helped by Saudi Arabia's actions, supply disruptions in several OPEC countries and the prospect of lower supplies from Venezuela after US President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on the local oil industry. OPEC, Russia and other countries agreed in December to cut shipments by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1. OPEC's share of this reduction is 800,000 barrels per day, with an exception made for Iran, Libya, and Venezuela. The data showed that on January, 11 OPEC members, bound by the new agreement on the restriction of supply, reached 70 percent of the promised reductions. A further decline in Iran, Libya and Venezuela increased the overall OPEC figure to 890,000 barrels per day.

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What will February look like at Forex?

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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What traders will remember from January? This is probably due to the fact that long positions on USD / CHF brought 1.5%, on USD / SEK, 2.6%, and "shorts" on EUR / NOK, over 2%. Sales of the single European currency against the greenback before the ECB meeting also justified themselves, but expectations about easing the Fed's position ruined the "bears" on the EUR / USD holiday. Now it's February, what to expect from it?

The best results in the second month of the year are most often demonstrated by the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as well as the Japanese yen. This may seem somewhat surprising given the fact that last year they almost simultaneously became cheaper against the background of the escalation of trade conflicts. Then the "American" took away the status of a defensive asset from competing currencies on the G10, and "Aussie" and "Kiwi" went at a peak mainly because of concerns about a slowdown in the growth rate of the Chinese economy. Now, the opposite situation is possible if the trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom will be crowned with success.

Meanwhile, the British currency is traditionally among the outsiders of February. According to some estimates, since 1975, it has closed in the "red" zone in 24 cases out of 44, losing an average of 0.62% in weight. It is possible that the euphoria surrounding the extension of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty has taken the pound sterling too far, and investors will soon begin to take profits.

As for the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar, the oil quotes have recently pushed off the short-term bottom, but if trade negotiations between the US and China cease, prices may resume falling, followed by the looney and the Norwegian. Moreover, as the events of last year show, as soon as the cost of Brent crude oil exceeded $ 65 a barrel, American producers actively increased their production of black gold.

Thus, in the case of the resolution of trade disputes between Washington and Beijing, a better option than long positions in the AUD / USD and NZD / USD pairs in February will probably be difficult to find. The bulls will surely be able to benefit from improved global risk appetite, as well as hopes for a recovery in the Chinese economy. It is assumed that while maintaining the adverse political landscape in the UK as Brexit approaches, the GBP / JPY sales and EUR / GBP purchases will be relevant. If the corrective movement of oil prices does not occur, then it makes sense to pay attention to the "longs" in the EUR / NOK and EUR / CAD pairs.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 31, 2019

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin rejected off the $3,500 with strong bearish pressure which pushed the price towards $3,450. The price is currently residing at the edge of Kumo Cloud support from where it has a greater probability to push higher as per recent proceeding higher swing lows, having confluence as support to climb upwards in the coming days. Until the price remains above the Kumo cloud i.e. $3,400 with a daily close, there is a probability of a further upward move with a break above $3,500. The price can proceed higher towards $4,000 in the future. As the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR: Italy fell into recession, and inflation in key eurozone countries continues to slow down

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Weak data on the growth of the eurozone economy, which came out today in the first half of the day, hurt euro buyers. It does not allow to form the continuation of the new upward trend formed after yesterday's report of the Federal Reserve System.

The Eurozone GDP growth in 2018 turned out to be the weakest in four years and only good data on the German labor market, which began in 2019 with a strong note and limited the downward movement in risky assets.

According to the report of the Federal Employment Service of Germany, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased by 2,000 in January 2019 compared with December. On the other hand, economists had forecast a decline in the number of unemployed in the country by 10,000 in January. The number of registered vacancies in January was 758,000. Despite the reduction in the number of applications, there was a slowdown compared with December, which, together with recent statistics on the German economy as a whole, does not form a bright prospect for the future. In January, the unemployment in Germany remained unchanged at the level of 5.0%.

As I noted above, GDP growth in the eurozone has seriously slowed.

According to the EU Statistics Agency, the eurozone's GDP in 2018 grew by only 1.8% over the year, after rising 2.4% in 2017. As for the growth in the 4th quarter compared to the 3rd quarter of 2018, then the growth came close to zero and amounted to only 0.2%, which completely coincided with economists' forecasts. A similar indicator was observed in the 3rd quarter of 2018.

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All of these suggest that the prospects for the eurozone economy at the beginning of this year are very weak due to increased geopolitical and trade risks. Activity is still noticeable in Spain and Germany but Italy has already slipped into recession. The German authorities today revised their forecasts for the country's GDP growth in the current year to 1% from 1.8%.

A report was issued Already today, stating that the preliminary GDP of Italy in the 4th quarter of this year fell immediately by 0.2% compared to the 3rd quarter and grew only by 0.1% over the year. Economists had forecast of 4% decline in Italy's GDP by 0.1% and a 0.3% increase, respectively.

Most likely, individual problems of the Italian authorities in pursuit of widening the budget deficit can be attributed to obvious reasons affecting the decline in economic growth in many eurozone countries. Let me remind you that last year there was a multi-month confrontation between the Italian government and the EU due to the planned increase in the budget deficit, which affected business and consumer sentiment.

As for the preliminary data on inflation, the CPI of France in January of this year fell immediately by 0.5% m / m and rose only by 1.2% on an annualized basis. Economists had expected inflation to fall by 0.6% and growth by 1.1%, respectively. The EU harmonized consumer price index HCPI of France in January rose 1.4% year-on-year.

As for the similar indicators in Spain, the harmonized consumer price index HCPI in January rose by 1.0% per annum against the forecast of growth by 1.2%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trump: Trade negotiations between the United States and China are "going well", but there will be no deal

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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US President Donald Trump is optimistic about the interim results of top-level trade negotiations with Chinese officials in Washington but said that the final deal will not be reached until he meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On Wednesday, the United States and China launched a key round of talks aimed at overcoming differences over intellectual property and technology transfer and easing a multi-month wage war. Trump is due to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House.

"China's leading resellers are meeting with our representatives in the United States. Meetings are going well with good intentions on both sides. But there will be no final deal until my friend President Xi and I meet in the near future to discuss and agree on some long-standing and more complex issues," Trump wrote on Twitter.

Trump said the negotiators are working to complete the deal before March 1, the deadline agreed by both parties.

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Simplified wave analysis of GBP / JPY pair for the week of January 31

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Large-scale graph:

The dominant direction of the cross from February of last year was set by the descending wave. By now, its structure has been completed. The calculated goal of the decline and the proportions of all parts have been achieved.

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Medium-scale graph:

The bullish wave from January 3 only formally refers to the H1 scale. Its high wave level in the near future will transfer all movement to a larger scale.

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Small-scale graph:

From January 25, the price will drop, forming a downward wave of small scale. In the design of a larger TF area completes the hidden correction.

Forecast and recommendations:

The period of active price rise was replaced by a corrective decline. Sales in such conditions are risky. It is recommended in the area of settlement support to track the signals of purchase of the instrument.

Resistance zones:

- 144.00 / 144.50

Support areas:

- 140.80 / 140.30

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for January 31, 2019

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/GBP recently bounced off the 0.8600 support area after non-volatile impulsive bearish pressure pushing price lower since the bullish rejection off the 0.9100 area back in December 2018. EUR has been trading mixed amid the economic reports today that weakened the impulsive pressure in the pair against GBP it created recently.

EUR and GBP have been sensitive to the BREXIT developments recently. As a result, GBP gained non-volatile momentum against EUR. British Prime Minister Theresa May has been on a conflict with the European Union recently after lawmakers told her to renegotiate the BREXIT divorce deal. The conflict led to certain indecision in the market while EUR failed to be consistently better amid the economic data published recently. Moreover, BREXIT may deal a blow to Germany's economy.

Recently UK Net Lending to Individuals report was published with an increase to 4.8B from the previous figure of 4.6B which was expected to decrease to 4.3B and M4 Money Supply was also increased to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.1% which was expected to be at 0.2%. Today, UK GfK Consumer Confidence report was published unchanged as expected at -14 and Nationwide HPI increased to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.7% which was expected to be at 0.2%.

On the EUR side, today Spanish Flash GDP report was published with an increase to 0.7% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6% and Prelim Flash GDP report was published unchanged as expected at 0.2%.

Meanwhile, GBP has been more positive thanks to the recently published economic results but it failed to regain momentum over EUR that sustained the bullish momentum in the pair because of mixed economic reports. The current market bias indicates the sentiment of market participants. EUR is now winning favor with investors that opens the way for further gains.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently approaching the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the recent bounce off the 0.8600 support area with a daily close. The price formed Bullish Extreme Divergence in the process which might lead to sustaining further bullish pressure in the process. As the price remains below 0.8850 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 0.8500, 0.8600-50

RESISTANCE: 0.8850, 0.8950

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on January 31. Low pound activity related directly to uncertainty with Brexit

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The situation has not changed in comparison with the morning forecast. British pound buyers may resume an uptrend but this will require a breakdown of the resistance at 1.3135. Only after the prospect of updating the highs of 1.3214 and 1.3260 will open, where I recommend taking profits. However, a larger upward movement will depend on negotiations between British Prime Minister Theresa May and EU representatives. In the case of a downward correction, I recommend buying the pound only if there is a false breakdown around 1.3053 or for a rebound from 1.2971.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The failure to consolidate above resistance 1.3135, which was observed in the first half of the day, led to an attempt to resume the downward movement in the pound, and as long as trading continues below this range, sellers will expect to return to the support area 1.3053, a breakthrough that could lead to a further drop in GBP USD with a minimum of 1.2971 and 1.2894, where I recommend to take profits. In the case of a pound rising above 1.3135, it is best to look at short positions after updating the highs of the month at 1.3260 and 1.3348. Any news of the failure of negotiations between May and EU representatives could lead to a rapid fall in the pound.

More details in the video forecast for January 31

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on the market entry.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD pair: plan for the US session on January 31. Euro Buyers Return Against Low Statistics

Trading 31 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Amid weak fundamental statistics for the eurozone, euro buyers were expected to return to the market only after the test of the support level of 1.1471, which I talked about in more detail in my morning review. At the moment, the main task is the breakdown of the resistance level at 1.1506, above of which the highs in the region of 1.1539 and 1.1569 open, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a repeated decline to the support area of 1.1471, I recommend returning to long positions in euro only to rebound from a minimum of 1.1434.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Sellers have coped with the morning task of returning to the support level of 1.1471, however, it will not be so easy to break through. Only good statistics on the US economy will once again return the EUR/USD to the level of 1.1471. A repeated test of which may lead to a larger euro sale with a yield of 1.1434, where I recommend today to take profits. If demand continues, it is best to open short positions after the formation of a false breakdown around 1.1506 or to rebound from a new high of 1.1539.

More details in the video forecast for January 31

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade returned to the area of 30- and 50-medium moving, which may lead to the formation of a new upward wave in the euro.

Bollinger bands

In the event of a further decline in the euro, support will be provided by the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1434. The upward trend is limited by the upper boundary in the area of 1.1530.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com