S & P: The US economy has lost at least $ 6 billion due to the shutter

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Analysts at rating agency Standard & Poor's estimate that the US economy lost at least $ 6 billion during the suspension of government work.

S & P Global Rating experts believe that as a result of the shutdown, the US budget lost $ 1.2 billion a week since the suspension of government departments led to a decrease in productivity and a low level of business economic activity.

The shutdown was caused by the reluctance of the US Congress to allocate $ 5.7 billion for primary funding for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the US, while negative consequences, according to S & P experts, have already exceeded the amount requested by President Donald Trump.

Analysts also noted that, despite the resumption of government agencies, the negative effect of the shutdown is likely to affect financial markets and business confidence in the future of the country's economy.

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Gold updated the maximum on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Earlier this week, the gold price has updated a maximum since June 2018, pending a meeting of the US Federal Reserve with a decision on interest rate.

Apparently, investors are hiding from the risks in the precious metal. During today's trading, gold futures rose to $ 1,303.75, but then declined slightly and as of 17:25 Moscow time traded at $ 1,297.35.

Most analysts believe that, following a two-day meeting, the US Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged. Earlier, representatives of the regulator stated that they were ready to raise the rates twice this year, but in subsequent statements, they were more restrained.

The focus of attention is also on trade negotiations between the United States and China, the parties intend to reach an agreement before the deadline of March 1.

The Chinese delegation on Wednesday, January 30, will arrive in Washington for the next round of trade negotiations. If the deal fails before March 1, US President Donald Trump intends to raise tariffs on imports of Chinese goods.

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Bitcoin: bulls ready to go

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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There's a bullish Wolfe Wave pattern on the Bitcoin's one-hour chart. The price faced support on the 1-3 line, so there's a green light for a bullish rally. Moreover, there' a pullback from the 0.786 retracement level of the previous upward price movement, which brings more evidence for the bullish outlook.

The main intraday target is the 0.786 retracement of the current decline at 3950.51, which is near the 1-4 line of the pattern. The subsequent pullback from this level could lead to the beginning of a local downward correction. At the same time, more careful and patient traders should wait for a break of the 2-4 line, which will be final confirmation for a rally in wave 6 towards the target.

However, if the price doesn't break the 2-4 line and fixates below the 0.786 retracement level, this scenario will be at risk. If this happens, we should abstain from any long trades until the market comes back above the 0.786 level and then goes through the 2-4 line.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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GBP/USD continues to rally as expected. Our second target at the price of 1.3200 is reached but there is still space for the upward movement. Even the GBP/USD looks to be in the overbought condition, the upward trendline is holding and the price is still trading inside of the Pitchfork upward channel. As long as the support at the price of 1.3060 is holding, buying opportunities are preferable.

R1: 1.3225

R2: 1.3240

R3: 1.3270

Pivot: 1.3200

S1: 1.3182

S2: 1.3150

S3: 1.3135

Trading recommendation: We closed our long position on GBP/USD that we took from 1.2900 and made around 250 pips. Anyway, the level of 1.3140 is a decent support for another smaller long position, so we bought GBP/USD. Targets are set at the price of 1.3217 and 1.3400. Protective stop is placed at 1.3050.

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin sank below $3,500 amid strong bearish momentum today which has cleared the impulsive bullish bias by some extent. Currently the price is expected to dive much lower in the coming days. Bitcoin is currently trading firmly below $3,500 on the intraday charts while being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line as support. The Chikou span is also holding below the price line which also signals the bearish pressure in the market. Currently the price is consolidating below $3,500 area which is expected to result in a certain pullback towards the $3,500 area for a retest before it continues with the bearish momentum with a target towards $3,000 support area.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,250

RESISTANCE: 3,500, 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

EUR/JPY has been struggling at the edge of 125.00 area for a few weeks in a row. The pair could extend a downward bias in the long term. Ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech today, JPY had been quite soft in light of the minutes today. Investor sentiment will clear up after the close today.

EUR managed to sustain the momentum over JPY after the drastic fall towards 119.00 area was recovered earlier. The ECB forecast of the eurozone's economic growth has been downgraded in the speech of ECB President Draghi last week. He warns that the euro area is losing momentum. According to ECB's quarterly survey, a key element of Thursday's policy update sees 2019 GDP growth to decrease to 1.5% which was expected to be at 1.8%. The Inflation is also dipping to 1.5% instead of 1.7% in the previous forecast. The ECB has been missing the inflation target since 2013 that undermines the eurozone's economic growth in the long run. If ECB President Draghi drops any positive hints for market participants, EUR could find some support. Otherwise, EUR is expected to lose further momentum, thus opening way for JPY gains.

On the JPY side, the Bank of Japan released the minutes of the latest policy meeting where policymakers disagreed over the level of bond yields. The US-China Trade War has already affected JPY. A positive outcome of the Trade War is expected to help Japan to regain the growth. Otherwise, the trade conflict could bring a fallout to Japan's economy. Members present at the meeting stated some factors to look at, including reaching the 2% inflation target strain on Japan's economy amid a slowdown in the global economy. Moreover, SPPI report was published with a decrease to 1.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. Though Japan's economy has been growing quite rapidly, the current situation is acting as a barrier to further growth. On Wednesday, JPY Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.9% and Consumer Confidence Index is also expected to edge down to 42.5 from the previous figure of 42.7.

Meanwhile, both currencies in the pair are still quite indecisive, whereas any positive outcome of economic reports or events may clear up a direction in the pair. Though EUR has been struggling to gain momentum, any downbeat economic data from Japan may lead to further downward pressure in the pair.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently moving lower with confluence below 125.00 area. The pair is expected to have a higher probability to decline deeper towards 123.00 and later towards 120.00 area in the future. As the price remains below 125.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue or else a bullish counter-move with sustainable bullish momentum may occur.

SUPPORT: 120.00, 123.00

RESISTANCE: 125.00, 127.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Analysis of Gold for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Gold continues to rally as expected. Our first target at the price of $1,295.00 is reached, but there is still plenty of space for the upward movement. Since the key resistance at the price of $1,295.00 is broken and there is the upward trend, I expect that Gold will reach the median Pitchfork line in the future.

R1: $1,301.50

R2: $1,303.60

R3: $1,304.75

Pivot: $1,300.00

S1: $1,298.24

S2: $1,297.00

S3: $1,295.00

Trading recommendation: We are long Gold from $1,285 and our SL is on the breakeven, but we added new smaller long position from $1,300.00 and a protective stop at $1,285.00. Our main target is $1,340.00.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 17 when significant bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.2999 (Bearish Engulfing candlestick around the downtrend line).

This paused the bullish scenario for a while, allowing sometime for bearish correction towards 1.2830 where another bullish swing was initiated.

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the price level of 1.3240 when the current bearish rejection was initiated around 1.3215.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above the price level of 1.3150 (Broken Supply Level) should be maintained on a daily basis. This enhances another bullish visit towards 1.3240.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.3150 may bring the GBP/USD pair again into a deeper bearish correction that extends down to 1.3000 where bullish recovery should be anticipated.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for bearish pullback towards 1.3000 (backside of the broken downtrend in RED) for a valid BUY entry.

T/P levels to be located around 1.3055, 1.3135 and 1.3200. Any bearish H4 closure below 1.2950 invalidates this scenario.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 28, 2019

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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BTC breached the key support cluster at the price of $3.420, which is a clear sign that sellers are in control and that buyers don't have power. BTC is trading inside of the downward Pitchfork channel and I am expecting a potential reach of the median line. The key support now became the level of $3.420.

Resistance levels:

R1: $3.572

R2: $3.613

R3: $3.663

Pivot : $3.522

Support levels:

S1: $3.480

S2: $3.431

S3: $3.390

Trading recommendations for today: We are short BTC/USD from $3.392 and with the target at $3.107. Protective stop is placed at the price of $3.550.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 28. Bears in no hurry to return to the market

Trading 28 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The euro buyers returned to the market after the expected correction, which I paid attention to in my morning review. At the moment, the next buy signal will be a breakthrough of the resistance level of 1.1422, which will lead to the continuation of the upward trend with the update of highs around 1.1457 and 1.1490. The release of important fundamental data is not expected, so all attention remains on the speech of the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. In the event of a further euro decline in the afternoon to the support area of 1.1387, it is best to look at long positions from 1.1342.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

There were not enough bears for a long time, and after a slight downward correction, demand for the euro is again observed. At the moment, it is best to look at short positions after the update of this week's high in the large resistance area of 1.1457 or a rebound from 1.1490. The main task of sellers for the second half of the day will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support of 1.1387, which will instantly lead to a sale to the minimum area of 1.1342 and 1.1292, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted above the 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates a possible continuation of the growth of the euro.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator has sharply decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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