GBP/USD on major ascending trend line support, prepare to buy!

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

GBP/USD is testing major trend line support and we look to buy at 1.2835 (ascending trend line support, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce to at least 1.2911 profit target (horizontal swing high resistance)

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CAD/CHF on major ascending trend line support, prepare to buy!

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

CAD/CHF is testing major trend line support and we look to buy at 0.7492 (ascending trend line support) for a bounce to at least 0.7518 profit target (horizontal swing high resistance)

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AEX on major descending trend line resistance, prepare to sell!

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

AEX is testing the major channel resistance and we look to sell at 510.6 (descending channel resistance, horizontal overlap resistance) for a drop to at least 501.1 profit target (horizontal pullback support).

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BITCOIN Analysis for January 22, 2019

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been correcting itself between the corrective price range between $3,500 and $3,600 which recently rejected off the $3,500 support area with strong bullish momentum. The price is currently moving higher towards the Kumo resistance area where the 200 EMA is also holding as dynamic resistance. After the bearish rejection below $3,500, BTC is extending strength above this level amid bullish pressure. A daily close above $3,600 and Kumo Cloud resistance is expected to reinforce upward momentum. As the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards $4,000 in the coming days.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500

RESISTANCE: 3,600, 4,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR and GBP: Access to credit in the eurozone will not change in the near future

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Fundamental data released on the UK economy in the first half of the day helped the buyers of the British pound, but a more powerful upward momentum was not formed due to the lack of a clear guideline with a further agreement on Brexit. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May said that Brexit talks would be held without delay, reiterating that there would be no second referendum on this issue.

Good data on wage growth suggests a future increase in costs and growth in retail sales, which will surely support the UK economy.

According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, the number of employed citizens in the period from September to November 2018 increased by 141,000 compared with the previous three-month period. But the total number of unemployed increased by only 8,000 compared with the previous three-month period. The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%.

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As I noted above, wage growth was 3.4% compared with the same period last year, while economists expected an increase of only 3.3%. The report also noted that the growth rate of wages exceeded the growth rate of prices, while real wages increased by 1.2%.

Today, a report was also published by the National Bureau of Statistics on the net borrowings of the UK public sector, which in December 2018 were at the level of 3 billion British pounds against 2.7 billion pounds in December 2017.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, the further growth prospects will depend on the level of 1.2890. If buyers manifest themselves in this range, you can count on a breakthrough of the maximum of 1.2950 with a test of the monthly resistance level of 1.3000.

The European currency continued to trade around the lows of the month, while data from the ZEW Research Institute failed to return to the buyers market.

The poor fundamental data, which has recently been published in the German economy, had a negative impact on the leading report on economic conditions and expectations in Germany.

According to the report, the current conditions index in Germany in January of this year fell to 27.6 points against 45.3 points in December, while the index of economic expectations in Germany in January, on the contrary, rose slightly to -15.0 points against -17, 5 points in December.

A report by the European Central Bank was published today, according to which, in the 4th quarter of 2018, eurozone banks left their policy of approving loans for companies and households unchanged.

From this, we can conclude that at the beginning of 2019 the situation with lending will not change, which will allow us to count on further growth of the economy since it strongly depends on the availability of financing, which is provided from credit resources. The report indicates that representatives of 147 banks surveyed by the ECB expect only a slight tightening of credit conditions in the corporate sector of the eurozone in the 1st quarter of 2019.

As for the technical picture of the currency pair EUR / USD, a breakthrough of the support level of 1.1345 may lead to the formation of a new wave of falling risky assets, reaching 1.1310 and 1.1270 lows.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 22, 2019

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

BTC failed to reach the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that sellers are loosing power and the demand may increase. There is also a breakout of the Pitchfork diagonal (resistance) which is another confirmation of strength. The key support at the price of $3,420 held successfully and I expect further bullish movement. Stochastic is in oversold zone, which confirms potential upward movement. I am bullish as long as there is support at $3,420.

Trading advice: We are bullish on BTC from $3,540 with the targets at $3.742 and $4,086. The protective stop is placed below $3,420.

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Analysis of Gold for January 22, 2019

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Gold is expected to move higher towards $1,294.00 (resistance cluster) as long as the support at $1,276.00 is holding. Gold failed to test the Pitchfork median line, which is a sign that selling power decreased. Stochastic is in the oversold zone together with hidden bullish divergence, which adds more potential strength on Gold. Only a break below support at $1,276.00 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for our bullish view.

Trading recommendation: We will buy Gold on the breakout of the resistance at $1,284.00 with a target at $1,294.00 and protective stop at $1,276.00. Watch for a breakout of resistance before buying.

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Heads of companies around the world expect an economic downturn

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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According to a survey by the international consulting company PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), about 30% of company heads expect a slowdown in global economic growth over the next 12 months.

Researchers surveyed 1,300 people from all regions of the world. The share of the negative outlook for the global economy grew almost six times over the year (by 5%), which indicates a strong jump in pessimism.

The sentiments of respondents in the United States deteriorated the most, where the share of optimistic forecasts declined compared with last year from 63% to 37%.

The decline in optimism was reflected in plans to expand business outside of their countries. The United States retained its leadership in the list of targeted areas of expansion, while over the year the attractiveness of the American market fell from 46% to 27%. China, which ranks second in the investment attractiveness rating, also showed a decline from 33% to 24%.

CEOs of companies for the development of their business also chose Germany, 13%, India, 8%, Great Britain, 8%.

Only 35% of respondents expressed strong confidence in the growth prospects of their companies in the next 12 months, last year their share was 42%.

The share of Chinese businessmen who are confident in the prospects for business declined from 40% to 35% against the background of a trade conflict with the United States and a weakened industrial sector. Moreover, only 17% of managers chose the American market to expand their business, whereas last year the figure reached 59%.

The confidence of heads of companies in the United States decreased from 52% to 39%, in Germany - from 33% to 20% due to the slowdown in the economy and the problems associated with the release of the UK from the European Union.

88% of respondents who have expressed strong concerns about the prospects for the global economy are most concerned about the problem of the trade confrontation between China and the United States. At the same time, the majority of Chinese businessmen are actively responding: 62% adjust the supply chain and procurement strategy, 58% reorient business development to other countries.

In addition, 85% of company executives expect the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) technology over the next five years, which will have a major impact on business, with two-thirds believing that it will change the world more than the Internet.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 22, 2019

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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GBP/USD is expected to move higher towards 1.3000 (median Pitchfork line) as long as it holds above the upward trendline. There is also a rejection of the lower Pitchfork trendline (support), which is a confirmation of strength. Stochastic is in oversold zone, which adds more potential strength on GBP. Ideally, support at 1.2828 will be able to protect the downside for the next push higher to 1.3000. Only a break below support at 1.2828 will change this bullish trading idea and stop us for being long.

Trading recommendation: We are long GBP/USD from 1.2900 with take profits at 1.3000 and 1.3050. Protective stop order is placed at 1.2830.

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Brent oil becomes cheaper on pessimism about the global economy

Trading 22 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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The cost of oil has shifted to a reduction in renewed concerns about a slowdown in the global economy. March futures for Brent fell to the level of $ 61.50 a barrel. The cost of futures for WTI also showed a decline to the level of $ 53 per barrel.

As it became known on the eve, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worsened its October forecast of global economic growth in 2019 from 3.7% to 3.5%. The forecast for 2020 assumes the growth of the global economy by 3.6%.

The forecast for emerging markets was also lowered (by 0.2%, to 4.5%). In 2020, GDP growth in emerging markets will accelerate to 4.9%. Assessment of economic growth in developed countries was reduced by 0.1%, to 2%. In 2020, similar GDP growth rates were reduced to 1.7%.

Market fears of oversupply disappeared due to the efforts of OPEC + to reduce oil production. Currently, all the attention of markets is drawn to demand, in particular, how much demand will decrease in China and in the world as a whole.

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