*New Zealand Food Prices +0.5 Seasonally Adjusted In December; -0.2% Unadjusted

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

New Zealand Food Prices +0.5 Seasonally Adjusted In December; -0.2% Unadjusted


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Japan Money Stock Data Due On Tuesday

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Japan will on Tuesday release December data for money stock, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The M2 money stock is expected to have risen 2.4 percent on year, up from 2.3 in November. M3 is called steady at 2.1 percent.

Japan also will see December numbers for bankruptcies and machine tool orders; in November, they were up an annual 6.05 percent and down 17.0 percent, respectively.

New Zealand will provide December figures for food prices; in November, they were down 0.6 percent on month.

Malaysia will release November unemployment data; in October, the jobless rate was 3.3 percent and the participation rate was 68.5 percent.

Indonesia will see December data for imports, exports and trade balance. In November, imports were worth $16.88 billion and exports were at $14.83 billion for a trade deficit of $2.05 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Mostly Subdued Against Major Currencies

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

The dollar was subdued against most major currencies on Monday amid speculation the Federal Reserve might pause its monetary tightening measures this year.

In September-October 2018, the Fed was hinting there would be three rate increases in 2019. However, the central bank's members, including Chairman Jerome Powell have been saying in recent days that the bank would be flexible with regard to its policy stance.

The dollar was mostly weak against major currencies on Monday with traders shifting their focus to the vote on British Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal.

On Tuesday, British legislators are scheduled to vote on May's Brexit deal.

Against British Pound Sterling, the U.S. dollar is down by about 0.2%. Meanwhile, the Euro/USD edged up marginally to $1.1469.

The Japanese yen gained ground against the U.S. dollar.

The dollar index is down 0.07, or 0.07% at 95.62. The index, which advanced to 95.72 earlier in the day, dropped down to 95.48 later on in the session.

U.K.'s pound sterling rose to a near 2-month high against the U.S. dollar before paring some gains. Still, the currency recovered subsequently and was trading marginally higher against the greenback.

In economic news, data from the Eurostat showed that Eurozone's industrial production decreased at a faster-than-expected pace in November.

Industrial production decreased a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent from October, when it edged up 0.1 percent, revised from 0.2 percent. Economists had expected a 1.5 percent slump.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Treasuries Close Slightly Lower After Seeing Initial Strength

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

After initially moving to the upside, treasuries showed a notable pullback over the course of the trading session on Monday.

Bond prices pulled back well off their highs of the session and into negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, inched up by nearly a basis point to 2.710 percent after hitting a low of 2.672 percent.

The early strength among treasuries came amid concerns about the global economic outlook following the release of disappointing Chinese trade data.

Data from China's General Administration of Customs showed exports tumbled by 4.4 percent year-over-year in December, reflecting the biggest drop in two years. Economists had expected exports to increase by 3 percent.

The report also said Chinese imports plunged by 7.6 percent in December compared to the same month a year ago, defying expectations for a 5 percent jump.

ING Greater China Economist Iris Pang said the contraction in Chinese imports and exports "is likely to continue into 2019 due to falling foreign demand, including demand for Chinese-made electronic products."

Buying interest waned shortly after the start of trading, however, as traders seemed reluctant to make significant moves amid a lack of major U.S. economic data.

Trading on Tuesday may be impacted by reaction to a report on producer price inflation as well as data on New York manufacturing activity.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Crude Oil Futures End Sharply Lower On Weak Chinese Trade Data

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures drifted down sharply on Monday, as worries about energy demand resurfaced on disappointing trade data from China.

After some positive spells in recent sessions amid hopes the OPEC-led supply cuts and optimism about U.S.-China trade discussions, crude oil prices have retreated on concerns about near term energy demand.

Crude oil futures for February ended down $1.08, or 2.1%, at $50.51 a barrel.

After nine successive days of gains, crude oil futures ended down $1.00, or 1.9%, at $51.59 a barrel on Friday, due largely to profit taking and on concerns about economic slowdown in China.

On Monday, data from General Administration of Customs showed China's exports and imports in December declined at the worst rates in two years, adding to evidence of a rapid slowdown in the economy amid the trade war with the US and weakening global activity.

Exports dropped 4.4% year-on-year in December, the data showed. That was in contrast to the 3% gain economists had predicted. Imports decreased 7.6% from a year ago, defying expectations for a 5% rise. Both exports and imports outcome was the worst since 2016. In December, the trade surplus was $57.1 billion.

Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said at a conference in Abu Dhabi that the oil market was "on the right track" and there was no need for an extraordinary OPEC meeting before its next planned gathering in April.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Settles Modestly Higher

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Monday as the dollar eased and global stock markets turned weak after data showed a shock contraction in Chinese exports last month.

Weak economic data from Eurozone and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, that hint a pause in interest rate hikes also contributed to the yellow metal's uptick.

Stock markets had moved higher in recent sessions after Powell said the central bank would be flexible with regard to its monetary policy stance.

The dollar index futures for March were hovering around 95.10 an hour ago, down marginally from previous close.

Gold futures for February ended up $1.80, or 0.2%, at $1,291.30 an ounce.

On Friday, gold futures ended up $2.10, or 0.2%, at $1,289.50 an ounce, after having shed about 0.4% a session earlier.

Silver futures for March settled at $15.686 an ounce, down $0.030 from previous close.

Copper futures for March ended at $2.636, down $0.026 from Friday's close.

Data released by China's General Administration of Customs today showed exports and imports in December declined at the worst rates in two years, adding to evidence of a rapid slowdown in the economy amid the trade war with the US and weakening global activity.

Exports dropped 4.4% year-on-year in December, the data showed. That was in contrast to the 3% gain economists had predicted. Imports decreased 7.6% from a year ago, defying expectations for a 5% rise. Both exports and imports outcome was the worst since 2016. In December, the trade surplus was $57.1 billion.

In economic news from Eurozone, a preliminary report from the statistical office Eurostat showed Eurozone's industrial production decreased at a faster-than-expected pace in November. Industrial production decreased a seasonally adjusted 1.7% from October, when it edged up 0.1%, revised from 0.2%. Economists had expected a 1.5% slump.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production fell a calendar adjusted 3.3% in November after a 1.2% increase. Economists had predicted a 2.1% slump.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

May’s last attempt to save a Brexit deal

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c3cad5c0e823.jpg

British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the failure of the Brexit deal will have disastrous consequences for democracy.

May is trying to enlist the support of parliamentarians on the eve of the vote on the deal with Brussels.

Earlier, in December, she postponed the vote, fearing failure, and urged lawmakers not to betray those who supported the British withdrawal from the European Union in a referendum in June 2016.

The deal agreed by May is criticized by both opponents and Brexit supporters, so it is expected that parliamentarians will vote against the agreement with a large margin.

On Monday, January 14, the British Prime Minister will speak in parliament, focusing on the new assurances from the EU regarding the border with Ireland, the most controversial point of the Brexit deal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Romania Industrial Production Grows In November

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Romania's industrial production grew in November, led by manufacturing, figures from the National Institute of Statistics showed on Monday.

The industrial production rose an unadjusted 2.6 percent in November compared to the same month of previous year.

Among the sectors, manufacturing output rose by 3.1 percent annually and the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply climbed 0.2 percent. In contrast, the mining and quarrying output fell 0.5 percent.

On a seasonal and working day adjusted basis, industrial production rose 5.2 percent year-on-year.

On a month-on-month basis, the industrial production fell by an unadjusted 1.2 percent in November.

After working days and seasonal adjustments, industrial production rose 0.8 percent from the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pound Strengthens After May Says Voting Down Brexit Deal Risks 'No Brexit'

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May's warning before the Parliamentary vote that rejecting the Brexit deal risks "no Brexit scenario" send the pound higher against its major counterparts in the European session on Monday.

Speaking to factory workers in Stoke-on-Trent, May claimed that Parliament is more likely to prevent Brexit rather than permitting it to leave without a deal.

May's speech comes ahead of Parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal tomorrow, which is expected is face defeat in the Commons.

Should lawmakers voted down the deal, the most likely outcome would be a "paralysis in parliament that risks there being no Brexit," May told.

"The only deal on the table is the one MPs will vote on tomorrow night," May said. "You can take no deal off the table by voting for that deal. If no deal is as bad as you believe it is, it will be the height of recklessness to do anything else."

The currency was lower against its most major counterparts in the Asian session, as Asian shares fell after weak China data and investors awaited the Parliamentary vote on the Brexit due tomorrow.

The pound advanced 0.3 percent to 0.8905 against the euro, its largest level since December 7, 2018. The pair was valued at 0.8929 when it ended deals on Friday. Next key resistance for the pound is seen around the 0.88 level.

Data from the Eurostat showed that Eurozone's industrial production decreased at a faster-than-expected pace in November.

Industrial production decreased a seasonally adjusted 1.7 percent from October, when it edged up 0.1 percent, revised from 0.2 percent. Economists had expected a 1.5 percent slump.

The pound appreciated to near a 2-month high of 1.2880 against the greenback, recording a 0.5 percent gain from a low of 1.2819 touched at 3:45 am ET. At last week's close, the pair was worth 1.2835. The pound is seen finding resistance around the 1.30 level.

The U.K. currency bounced off to 139.23 against the yen, from a low of 138.60 hit at 2:30 am ET. The currency is thus not far from near a 2-week peak of 139.57 set at the beginning of today's trading. The pound is poised to find resistance around the 142.00 mark.

The pound recovered to 1.2642 against the Swiss franc, after falling to 1.2593 at 3:45 am ET. The currency is thus closer to pierce near a 6-week high of 1.2659 seen at 5:00 pm ET. The pair was quoted at 1.2629 at last week's close. Further uptrend may take the pound to a resistance around the 1.28 region.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

An opportunity to buy a pound is coming

Trading 14 jan 2019 Commentaire »

dWVVmZiSxzYg-rf_jbu491TQZh0n295ZcMicIMgl

On Tuesday, the British Parliament will have to reject or approve the proposed Brexit agreement with the EU, Theresa May. Any decision will be fateful because the future of Great Britain for years to come is at stake. It is worth noting that English politicians have repeatedly proved their unpredictability over the entire time of discussion of this issue, so you can wait for anything. Pound, of course, throwing provided.

The failure of the negotiations is likely to be the worst scenario for the country's economy. In this case, the dynamics of sterling will depend on monetary and fiscal policy. This is what experts write:

"If this happens, then the economic problems will be more important for the Bank of England than the inflation shock. Therefore, the regulator will lower the rates and possibly resume the asset purchase program. For British bonds, this will be a bullish factor."

Political events can cause the collapse of the pound paired with the dollar below $ 1.20, and this will be a good opportunity to buy it. The risk of withdrawing money from Britain as a result of Brexit is much lower than for any other state that decided to leave the European Union, strategists are sure.

Rktsl8NIUbeU8Pu9mpnJO26I2biT5_Dh6VmpV6qs

In case of failure of the vote, the British parliamentarians must provide a backup plan for the country's withdrawal from the EU within three days. Recall this initiative on Wednesday, January 9, was supported by 308 members of the House of Commons, 297 people were against it.

It is expected that the so-called "Plan B" will include three points.

Exit without a deal.

According to sources from the Times, at least two groups of parliamentarians promised to arrange a kind of "coup" if the Theresa May agreement is rejected. They plan to make changes to the rules of the House of Commons, to limit the powers of the government.

On the consequences of "hard" exit warned the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Food prices in this development soar by 10%. Although the price increase, he said, will become a "one-time effect," consumers who start buying cheaper products will quickly feel it.

The seriousness of the possible consequences was described by the Minister of Health Matthew Hancock. The worst version of Brexit will result in at least an increase in funding for the NHS (national health service), whose budget depends on the pound rate. Part of the purchases falls on foreign goods and drugs, meanwhile, the sterling loses in value as the exit from the EU approaches.

In addition, the exit of Britain from the group without a deal threatens local residents with other major problems. First of all, they will have problems when traveling abroad. For example, to travel to the EU by car you will need to issue an international driver's license. The British will also have to pay for roaming when traveling to Europe. Potential problems include the risk of stopping flights between the UK and Europe.

General election.

The leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn, recently called on the Prime Minister to announce general elections if parliament voted against the Brexit agreement. It is possible that such an idea has some support in parliament, but is not supported by the majority of Britons. A recent Sky Poll poll showed that 45% of residents are against the new general election, and 37% are for.

It is unlikely that something can be achieved with the help of new elections, "even greater chaos will begin," a parliamentary source told RIA Novosti.

New referendum.

This idea is supported by a rather serious group of parliamentarians, in its composition and conservative deputy Anna Sobri. Here is what she said about this:

"I do not know what will happen. I only know that many who voted for Brexit are now more and more worried. This is their future, the future of their children and grandchildren, and they have the right to speak now when they know more about what Brexit looks like. I think they are starting to see that the best deal is one that we already have with the EU. We need to give people the opportunity to revise the decision and change their opinion."

Preparation for a new referendum will take at least 22 weeks, calculated at University College London, University of London. The earliest time when it can take place in May.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com