Treasuries Manage To Sustain Recovery Attempt

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

After ending the previous session nearly flat after failing to sustain an early upward move, treasuries showed another rebound attempt during trading on Friday.

Bond prices gave back some ground after an early advanced but managed to remain in positive territory this time. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, fell by 3 basis points to 2.701 percent.

The ten-year yield closed lower for the first time in six sessions but still remains well above the eleven-month closing low set last Thursday.

Treasuries partly benefited from their appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about the ongoing government shutdown and skepticism about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.

On the economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a slight drop in consumer prices in the month of December.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index slipped by 0.1 percent in December after coming in unchanged in November. The slight drop in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

Energy prices showed another significant decrease during the month, plunging by 3.5 percent in December following a 2.2 percent slump in the previous month.

A steep drop in gasoline prices led the way lower, with gas prices plummeting by 7.5 percent in December after tumbling by 4.2 percent in November.

On the other hand, the report said food prices climbed by 0.4 percent in December, the largest increase since May of 2014. Prices for fruits and vegetables surged higher.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in December, matching the increases seen in the two previous months as well as expectations.

Higher prices for shelter, recreation, medical care, and household furnishings and operations more than offset lower prices for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance.

The report said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.9 percent in December from 2.2 percent in November, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 2.2 percent.

Developments regarding the government shutdown may attract attention next week along with reports on producer prices, homebuilder confidence, and industrial production.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Snap 9-day Winning Streak, Settle Sharply Lower

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Crude oil futures ended notably lower on Friday, snapping a nine-day winning streak, with profit taking and worries about slowing Chinese economy weighing on the commodity.

Crude oil futures ended down $1.00, or 1.9%, at $51.59 a barrel. On Thursday, crude oil futures ended $0.23, or 0.4%, at $52.59 a barrel, after having surged up 5.2% a session earlier.

For the week, oil futures gained about 7.6%.

Crude oil prices rallied sharply over the last nine sessions on news about production cuts by OPEC and some non-OPEC members and amid optimism about the U.S. and China striking a trade deal before the expiry of a 90-day truce agreed upon in early December by the Presidents of the U.S. and China. Data showing declines in crude stockpiles in the past couple of weeks contributed as well to oil's rise in recent sessions.

Before that, for much of the last quarter of 2018, crude oil prices were sliding down, losing over 40% from the highs attained in early October.

The three-day trade negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials at Beijing concluded on Wednesday, with no significant breakthroughs. However, hopes remain that the two nations will continue to strive for a trade agreement before a March 1 deadline.

The U.S. Trade Representative's office said in a statement after the three-day talks that officials from U.S. and China discussed "ways to achieve fairness, reciprocity and balance in trade relations". China's ministry of commerce said that the negotiations were "extensive, deep and meticulous" without offering specifics.

Data released by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week to January 4, compared with analysts' expectations for a decrease of 2.8 million barrel.

A report released by Baker Hughes today said U.S. energy firms cut oil rigs for a second week in a row as more producers, like Occidental Petroleum Corp, turned conservative in their 2019 drilling plans due to uncertainty over a recovery in crude prices.

The oil rig count dropped by four in the week to January 11, to 873. The U.S. rig count is still much higher than a year ago when 752 rigs were active.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Dollar Moves Modestly Higher Versus Euro, Yen

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar has moved modestly higher versus the euro and the yen on Friday, although traders seem reluctant to make more significant moves.

Currently, the dollar is trading at 108.49 yen compared to the 108.43 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Thursday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.1465 compared to yesterday's $1.1500.

The British pound has moved notably higher versus the dollar, however, with the pound valued at 1.2844 compared to the dollar.

The dollar has partly benefited from its appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about the ongoing government shutdown and skepticism about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.

On the economic front, the Labor Department released a report showing a slight drop in consumer prices in the month of December.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index slipped by 0.1 percent in December after coming in unchanged in November. The slight drop in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

Energy prices showed another significant decrease during the month, plunging by 3.5 percent in December following a 2.2 percent slump in the previous month.

A steep drop in gasoline prices led the way lower, with gas prices plummeting by 7.5 percent in December after tumbling by 4.2 percent in November.

On the other hand, the report said food prices climbed by 0.4 percent in December, the largest increase since May of 2014. Prices for fruits and vegetables surged higher.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index rose by 0.2 percent in December, matching the increases seen in the two previous months as well as expectations.

Higher prices for shelter, recreation, medical care, and household furnishings and operations more than offset lower prices for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance.

The report said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.9 percent in December from 2.2 percent in November, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 2.2 percent.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved in a tight range on Friday as traders looked for direction even as the dollar edged up a bit despite rising hopes about a pause in interest rate hikes.

The yellow metal managed to settle higher after equities lost some ground due to profit taking and on concerns about the ongoing government shutdown and skepticism about a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China.

Recent comments by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank will be patient in determining when to hike interest rates weighed on greenback earlier in the day.

However, the currency forced its way up against most major currencies as the session progressed and the dollar index edged up slightly t0 95.20.

Gold futures for February ended up $2.10, or 0.2%, at $1,289.50 an ounce. On Thursday, gold futures ended down $4.60, or 0.4%, at $1,287.40 an ounce.

For the week, gold futures gained 0.3%.

Silver futures for March settled at $15.656 an ounce, down $0.013 from Thursday's close, while Copper futures for March ended at $2.662 for the session, gaining $0.025 for the session.

On the economic front, the Labor Department's report showed a slight drop in consumer prices in the month of December. The report said the consumer price index slipped by 0.1% in December after coming in unchanged in November. The slight drop in consumer prices matched economist estimates.

Energy prices showed another significant decrease during the month, plunging by 3.5% in December following a 2.2% slump in the previous month, led by falling gasoline prices.

The report showed food prices to have climbed by 0.4% in December, the largest increase since May of 2014. Excluding food and energy prices, the core consumer price index rose by 0.2% in December, matching the increases seen in the two previous months as well as expectations.

The report said the annual rate of consume price growth slowed to 1.9% in December from 2.2% in November, while the annual rate of core consumer price growth was unchanged at 2.2%.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Malaysia Industrial Production Growth Eases In November

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Malaysia's industrial production growth eased in November, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Friday.

Industrial production rose 2.5 percent year-on-year in November, slower than the 4.3 percent climb in October. Meanwhile, economists had expected a growth of 2.3 percent.

Among sectors, manufacturing output grew 3.6 percent annually in November, while mining output declined by 0.7 percent, the agency said.

On a monthly basis, industrial production registered a 0.1 percent gain in November, which was slower than the 1.7 percent increase in the previous month.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Powell: The Fed will wait and assess the state of the US economy

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell said that regulator officials will be patient when deciding to raise interest rates until they analyze the possible negative effects of monetary tightening, their impact on the growth of the US economy this year.

J. Powell noted that currently there are no signs of excessively high inflation or the presence of major risks in financial markets, however, in the coming months, the regulator intends to watch and wait, as there are concerns among market participants about the development of the US economy.

The head of the Fed stressed that inflation is low and under control, so the regulator has time to analyze and assess the situation.

Earlier, in December, Fed officials' forecasts were made public, which suggested a two-time rate hike in 2019. However, Powell noted that these forecasts are not a "plan" of the regulator.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Powell: The Fed will wait and assess the state of the US economy

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

analytics5c38b586c76be.jpg

Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell said that regulator officials will be patient when deciding to raise interest rates until they analyze the possible negative effects of monetary tightening, their impact on the growth of the US economy this year.

J. Powell noted that currently there are no signs of excessively high inflation or the presence of major risks in financial markets, however, in the coming months, the regulator intends to watch and wait, as there are concerns among market participants about the development of the US economy.

The head of the Fed stressed that inflation is low and under control, so the regulator has time to analyze and assess the situation.

Earlier, in December, Fed officials' forecasts were made public, which suggested a two-time rate hike in 2019. However, Powell noted that these forecasts are not a "plan" of the regulator.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Singapore Retail Sales Falls In November

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Singapore retail sales declined in November, primarily due to a sharp contraction in automobile sales, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Friday.

Retail sales fell 3.0 percent year-on-year in November, reversing a 0.1 percent rise in October. Automobile sales tumbled 15.1 percent year-on-year after a 2 percent drop in the previous month.

Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales declined 0.2 percent annually after rising 0.6 percent.

Computer and telecommunications equipment sales declined 22.1 percent.

Sales at department store sales rose by 8.7 percent and clothes and footwear grew by 3.0 percent.

Month-on-month, retail sales rose 0.2 percent, in contrast to a 0.3 percent fall in October.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: Results of the day on January 11th. Britain’s GDP rose, industrial production fell

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 211p - 72p - 93p - 94p - 73p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 109p (132p).

On the last trading day of the week, the British pound sterling rushed higher because of the news on GDP for November, which exceeded the forecast by 0.1% and amounted to 0.2% in monthly terms. However, traders in unison on purchases of the British pound dried up very quickly, since the indicator of industrial production for the same period collapsed in annual terms by 1.5% and in monthly terms by 0.4%, while forecasts predicted higher values. However, from our point of view, a significant event occurred for the pound, particularly the breakdown of the strong resistance area of 1.2800. This means that from a technical point of view, there is now nothing to stop the pound sterling from continuing to grow. If it were not for the outstanding issue with Brexit, the probability of the pair climbing would be high. In our case, everything, as before, will depend on the decision taken by the Parliament on January 15. Certain signals that a "soft" Brexit is still possible to appear from time to time but we recommend not trying to guess what the outcome of this procedure will be. It is better to wait for the final decision and accurately understand and realize that the UK will be waiting in the coming months and years. So far, all the hints, half hints and rumors from the European Commission or the British Parliament have no weight under them. We remind you how many rumors about positive progress in the negotiations were throughout the previous year. Every time a pound on these rumors becomes expensive, but in the end, everything could end without any deal for both parties.

Trading recommendations:

The GBP / USD currency pair has resumed its upward movement, but this growth can be extremely short. Therefore, we do not recommend opening new long positions at the end of the trading week, especially since it is nearing January 15th.

There are no grounds for opening orders for sale now either. Hence, we recommend waiting for the start of the new week, perhaps over the weekend new information from Britain will appear.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR / USD: Results of the day on January 11th. Technique still supports the euro, but this is the only growth factor.

Trading 11 jan 2019 Commentaire »

4 hour timeframe

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The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 73p - 87p - 63p - 121p - 85p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (89p).

On Friday, January 11, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in an absolutely calm way all day. The total range of movements on the last trading day of the week does not exceed 20 points, hence, we can say that the pair is just standing still. No important macroeconomic report has been published in Europe today. The only report expected from the US fully corresponded to the predicted value of inflation slowed down to 1.9% y/y in December. Since America did not present any surprises today, traders had nothing to react to. No new messages from the White House or personally from Donald Trump, who likes to "inform" the markets through social networks. The strengthening of the euro in recent days was more powerful than before and can even be called somewhat random. The fact that the Fed is ready to complete the program of tightening monetary policy, only at first glance is negative. In general, the Fed has significantly increased the rate in recent years, therefore, a small pause does not interfere unequivocally. Plus, the European Union and the ECB do not even think about tightening monetary policy. Therefore, as we have repeatedly said, the growth potential of the euro now looks quite limited. The euro will also not be able to go very far. On the one hand, the growth of the euro is more associated with the fall of the dollar, as well as negative news from the States. Thus, it is quite difficult to say that this Euro currency is being strengthened. One negative from the States, and a rather dubious negative, the euro will also not be able to go very far.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be adjusted, thus, it is recommended to open new longs after the MACD indicator turns upward when the price is above the critical line. The goal is the resistance level of 1.1588.

Short positions can be opened in small lots no earlier than fixing the price below the Kijun-Sen line with a target at the level of 1.1431. This will be the first step of the instrument on the way to a trend change to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com