BITCOIN Analysis for January 2, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish pressure recently which lead the price above 200 EMA recently. The price also breached above the dynamic levels of 20 EMA, Tenkan, Kijun, and Kumo Cloud as well which indicates further bullish momentum in the coming days. Bitcoin is still struggling to break above $4,000 area whereas a break with a daily close is expected to lead the price much higher towards $5,000 or higher in the coming days. As the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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USD/JPY analysis for January 02, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 108.70. Inverted head and shoulders intrarday pattern in the background. I also found the broken intraday supply trendline, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 109.90.

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Bitcoin analysis for January 02, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H1 time - frame, I found a breakout of the rising channel, which is a sign of changing in trend behaivor from bullish to bearish. I also found a confirmed double top formation and hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $3.387 and at the price of $3.100.

Support/Resistance

$3.933 – Intraday resistance

$3.642– Intraday support

$3.383 – Objective target 1

$3.100 – Objective target 2

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the American session on January 2. Pound returned to previous levels

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

News from Theresa May associated with Brexit has failed to support the British pound, which quickly fell today from recent highs. At the moment, you can count on purchases in the region of the middle border of the side channel 1.2659, however, larger buyers will show themselves at the lower border in the area of 1.2611. The main task of the bulls will be the return and consolidation in the second half of the day above the resistance of 1.2715, which will make it possible to speak about the continuation of the upward correction in GBP/USD pair.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The bears did an excellent job with the morning task and their next goal would be the breakdown and consolidation below 1.2659 support, which will lead to a further sale to the area of 1.2611 and 1.2567 minima. However, a more optimal scenario for sales today in the second half of the day will be a correction to the area of resistance 1.2715, from where you can open short positions immediately to rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which more indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a pound rising in the afternoon, you can open short positions from the middle border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.2725.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR/USD analysis for January 02, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1496. According to the H1 time – frame, I found a fake breakout of resistance at the level of 1.1478, which is a sign that buyers got trapped. I also found that potential end of the upward correction (abc flat) and a hidden bearish divergence on the MACD oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.1342 and at the price of 1.1270.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 2, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated below the depicted H4 downtrend line around the price levels of 1.2870 and 1.2780.

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 before bullish recovery could take place on December 12.

A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern is being demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2650-1.2680. Bullish persistence above 1.2660-1.2680 was mandatory for pattern confirmation. Initial Bullish target is projected towards 1.2880.

Last week, recent price action demonstrated a successful bullish breakout above the depicted downtrend line.

On Thursday, early bullish breakout attempt above 1.2720 was demonstrated on the H4 chart. However, the market failed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum above 1.2800 (mid-range of the depicted consolidation range).

That's why, another bearish pullback towards 1.2600-1.2650 (pattern neckline) should be expected during today's consolidations.

Another bullish breakout above 1.2720 is mandatory to resume the bullish scenario of the market. Otherwise, the pair remains trapped within the previous consolidation range (1.2600-1.2720).

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USD / JPY: Weak China causes market panic

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

The year of 2019 started quite rapidly: the US currency continues to swoop down, and defensive instruments are still in significant demand. On the market, one can increasingly hear the phrase that "the era of an expensive dollar is coming to an end" and the current year will be marked by a weakening of the greenback.

In my opinion, it is still too early to draw such long-term conclusions, however, the trends of recent weeks cannot be ignored. The dollar index for December fell from 97 points to 95.46, reflecting the traders' pessimism about the prospects for the US currency. Flywheel greenback sales began to spin after the December meeting of the Fed at which members of the regulator announced a slowdown in monetary policy tightening. Dollar pairs reacted differently to this news but the main beneficiary of the situation was the Japanese currency, which paired with the dollar just today updated semi-annual minimums.

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Last week, the USD/JPY pair was getting to the rather powerful, psychologically important level 110.00. The bears approached the boundaries of this level several times but each time they bought the pair, the price returned to previous levels. Yet, on the first working day after the New Year, the southern impulse increased markedly, after which the bears not only entered the 109th figure but also pushed the price to the level of 108.70. In other words, the USD/JPY pair has a serious potential for further decline: the nearest support level is at around 106.80, which is the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the monthly timeframe.

Such a rapid decline dynamics is explained by several fundamental factors. Firstly, it's Chinese statistics, secondly, prospects on Brexit are still in doubt. Against this background, the role of defensive assets increased substantially, after which the yen became a temporary favorite in the market. In turn, the dollar is under the yoke of its own problems, starting from a domestic political conflict that led to a shutdown and ending with a decline in yield of treasuries. This figure fell to a mark of 2.67%, that is, to an annual minimum.

Plus, the overall pressure on the dollar is exerted by the dovish position of the Fed, whose members agreed to slow down the pace of the rate hike this year. Moreover, on the horizon, a neutral rate level loomed, which may be below three percent. In other words, the American regulator is completing the cycle of tightening monetary policy amid a slowdown in the country's main indicators of the economy. Here, it is appropriate to recall that Jerome Powell in 2019 will hold press conferences after each of the eight Fed meetings. Therefore, we can find out already on January 30 the amended position of the Fed head regarding the prospects for monetary policy. If he confirms the main theses of the December meeting, the dollar will again go to the peak.

Back to the Japanese currency, today's revaluation is associated with an increased demand for protective tools as mentioned above. Here China played its role, which this week published rather weak releases. On Monday, we learned the data of the PMI index for the manufacturing fell to 49.8 points. Which is the worst result for the last year. Let me remind you that the values below the 50th mark indicate a slowdown in the relevant sector of the economy.

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Today there was another blow from the Chinese statistics: PMI Caixin / Markit manufacturing activity index was also in the reduction zone, falling below 50 which was the first time since the spring of 2017. Such figures indicate a slowdown in the growth of Chinese industry and this fact may affect the dynamics of the global economy as many experts have already warned several times. The US economy will not be an exception either, especially given the completion of the effect of tax reform and the negative impact of the US-China trade conflict. Such prospects again correspond to the prospects of the monetary policy of the Fed. I guess it's not for nothing that Jerome Powell recently warned that "US statistics in 2019 will not be so favorable to the forecasts of the regulator, as it was in 2018."

Thus, the general fundamental background for the dollar remains negative. In the context of the USD/JPY pair, the southern price trend is further enhanced by the demand for protective tools. However, it should be warned that during the American session for today, a northern price rollback is possible. Donald Trump invited the leaders of both parties of the House of Representatives and the US Senate to a meeting where he would try to convince lawmakers to allocate five billion dollars to the border wall next year. If this meeting ends in success for the American president (which is unlikely), then the dollar will slightly restore its position in the entire market.

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Otherwise, the USD/JPY pair will continue the southern route. On the technical side, there are no barriers in reducing the price down to 106.80 (the bottom line of the Bollinger Bands on MN).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 2, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a long-term Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped below the price level of 1.1420 waiting for bullish breakout since November 5.

On Thursday, another attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1420 was being executed. Bullish persistence above 1.1420 enables further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 (the upper limit of the daily channel) and 1.1600 (October's High) as initial targets.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below the key-level of 1.1420 brings more sideway consolidations down to 1.1260 again.

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 2. Euro buyers did not keep the market

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Weak data on the euro area led to the return of the European currency in the area of the opening of the day. At the moment, buyers have problems with the resistance level of 1.1446, and only fixing on it will again return the pair to a maximum of 1.1486, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the event of a further decline in the euro, long positions can be considered to rebound from the support of 1.1406.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

As long as trade is conducted below 1.1446, pressure on the euro will continue, and good fundamental data on the American economy may return sellers to the market, which will lead to a decline and a test of new support of 1.1406. However, the main purpose of the bears will be the area of 1.1369, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the euro rises above 1.1446 in the afternoon, short positions can be opened immediately to rebound from the maximum of 1.1486.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved to the area of 30-day and 50-day averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

If the euro declines in the second half of the day, it is best to return to purchases from the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1415.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Technical analysis of USD/CAD for January 2, 2019

Trading 02 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Overview:

The USD/CAD pair set above major support at the level of 1.3531, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This support has been rejected for four times confirming uptrend veracity. Hence, major support is seen at the level of 1.3531 because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend from the area of 1.3531 and 1.3600. The USD/CAD pair is trading in a bullish trend from the last support line of 1.3531 towards the first resistance level at 1.3660 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.3660 and further to the level of 1.3727. The level of 1.3727 will act as second resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.3660. At the same time, if a breakout happens at the support levels of 1.3531 and 1.3450, then this scenario may be invalidated. But in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario.

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