BITCOIN Analysis for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been consolidating and correcting itself at the edge of $3,600 area for a while now. The price has been rejected off the $3,600 support area with strong bullish momentum but the impulsive pressure is still not sufficient to push higher above $3,700 i.e. above 200 EMA. The price is being contained by Kumo Cloud, Tenkan, and 20 EMA resistance in the intraday chart which indicates that the bears are currently holding the upper hand over the bulls. Though the bias is still bullish as the price remains above $3,000 area with a daily close, the bullish pressure can only sustain its momentum if the price breaks above $4,000 area with a daily close. A break above Kumo Cloud resistance or $3,700 is a must for the current price to reach $4,000 or higher.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 3,700, 4,000, 4,250

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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USD / CAD: "Loonie" risks becoming hostage to the policies of the Fed and the Bank of Canada

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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If last year the Loonie became one of the outsiders among the currencies of the G10 countries, having lost 8% against the American, then at the beginning of this year, the CAD managed to win back a few losses.

The rebound in oil prices from 18-month lows, the resumption of trade negotiations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, the Fed's desire to take a pause in the process of tightening monetary policy, as well as the longest "off" the US government allowed the "bears" on USD / CAD to go on the attack. However, the political risks that are likely to manifest themselves in a short time may negate all their efforts.

JP Morgan experts expect that by mid-2019, the USD / CAD pair will rise to the level of 1.35.

"We proceed from the fact that there may be difficulties with the ratification of the new trade agreement between Washington and Ottawa due to the split US Congress and the continuing partial shutdown of the US government," representatives of the financial institute noted.

Meanwhile, foreign exchange strategists Morgan Stanley recommends selling USD / CAD with a target of 1.28 because the Fed is going to take a more cautious position.

According to them, the discrepancy between the Fed and Bank of Canada rates, as well as the latter's desire to raise the interest rate from the current 1.75% to a neutral level of 2.5-3.5%, should support the loonie. However, the Canadian Central Bank is unlikely to act proactively. At least this is evidenced by the fact that the regulator intends to bring the rate to a neutral level for a long time, which does not exclude the presence of a pause. Thus, if the Fed and the Bank of Canada approached it, in the medium term, consolidation of the USD / CAD pair in the range of 1.3-1.36 seems to be the most plausible option.

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Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on January 17

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Dear colleagues.

For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, we expect further downward movement after passing by the price of the range of 1.1375 - 1.1358 and we consider the upward movement as a correction. For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the price has issued a local structure for the top of January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the upward cycle development from January 10 is expected to continue after the price passes the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951. For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, we are currently following the development of the upward structure from January 10 and the level of 108.21 is the key support. For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15 and the level of 123.05 is the key support. For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the price has set the local structure on January 15 and the development of which is expected after the breakdown of 141.05.

Forecast for January 17:

Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs:

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For the currency pair Euro / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.1496, 1.1428, 1.1404, 1.1376, 1.1358, 1.1321 and 1.1291. Here, we continue to follow the development of the downward cycle of January 10. We expect the downward movement to continue after the price passes the range of 1.1376 - 1.1358. In this case, the target is 1.1321. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.1291, upon reaching which we expect a rollback to the top.

The consolidated movement is expected in the range of 1.1404 - 1.1428 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.1469 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the downward cycle of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy 1.1406 Take profit: 1.1426

Buy 1.1430 Take profit: 1.1466

Sell: 1.1358 Take profit: 1.1324

Sell: 1.1320 Take profit: 1.1294

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For the currency pair Pound / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.3118, 1.3057, 1.2973, 1.2905, 1.2821, 1.2779, 1.2720 and 1.2661. Here, we follow the formation of the local ascending structure of January 15. The continuation of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 1.2905. In this case, the goal is 1.2973 and near this level is the price consolidation. The breakdown of the level of 1.2973 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3057. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.3118, after reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.2821 - 1.2779 and the breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2720 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 1.2661.

The main trend is the local structure for the top of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.2905 Take profit: 1.2970

Buy: 1.2975 Take profit: 1.3055

Sell: 1.2820 Take profit: 1.2780

Sell: 1.2777 Take profit: 1.2724

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For the currency pair Dollar / Franc, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.0034, 0.9984, 0.9951, 0.9930, 0.9897, 0.9877 and 0.9848. Here, we continue to follow the development of the ascending cycle of January 10. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9930 - 0.9951 and the breakdown of the latter value will allow us to expect to move to the level of 0.9984, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 1.0034, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.9897 - 0.9877 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9848 and this level is the key support for the ascending structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.9930 Take profit: 0.9950

Buy: 0.9952 Take profit: 0.9982

Sell: 0.9896 Take profit: 0.9878

Sell: 0.9875 Take profit: 0.9850

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For the currency pair Dollar / Yen, the key levels on the scale of H1 are 109.74, 109.57, 109.27, 109.08, 108.67, 108.49, 108.21 and 107.76. Here, the next targets for the top are determined from the ascending structure on January 10th. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 109.08 - 109.27 and the breakdown of the latter value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement to the level 109.57 and in the range of 109.57 - 109.74 is the consolidation.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 108.67 - 108.50 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.21 and this level is the key support. Its breakdown will lead to the development of a downward trend. Here, the goal is 107.76.

The main trend is the rising structure of January 10.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 109.08 Take profit: 109.25

Buy: 109.29 Take profit: 109.56

Sell: 108.49 Take profit: 108.23

Sell: 108.18 Take profit: 107.80

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For the currency pair Canadian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 1.33.95, 1.3320., 1.3271, 1.3201, 1.3150 and 1.3065. Here, the situation is in equilibrium and in the range of 1.3201 - 1.3150, we expect a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. The potential value for the bottom is considered the level of 1.3065, after reaching which we expect a rollback to the correction.

The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3320 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the target is 1.3395 and this level is the key support for the downward structure.

The main trend is the equilibrium state of the structure.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 1.3271 Take profit: 1.3320

Buy: 1.3330 Take profit: 1.3395

Sell: 1.3201 Take profit: 1.3155

Sell: 1.3145 Take profit: 1.3070

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For the currency pair Australian dollar / Dollar, the key levels on the H1 scale are 0.7391, 0.7313, 0.7270, 0.7238, 0.7180, 0.7152 and 0.7113. Here, we are following the ascending structure of January 3. The short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.7238 - 0.7270 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a movement to the level of 0.7313, near which we expect consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered to be the level of 0.7391 and we expect a movement to this level after the breakdown of 0.7315.

The consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.7180 - 0.7152 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7113 and this level is the key support for the upward structure.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 0.7238 Take profit: 0.7270

Buy: 0.7273 Take profit: 0.7312

Sell: 0.7180 Take profit: 0.7155

Sell: 0.7150 Take profit: 0.7120

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For the currency pair Euro / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 127.22, 126.70, 125.79, 125.15, 123.74 and 123.05. Here, we continue to follow the rising structure of January 3. At the moment, the price is in a deep correction. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 125.15. In this case, the target is 125.79 and price consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of 125.80 must be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the goal is 126.70. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 127.22, after reaching which we expect a consolidated movement, as well as a rollback to the top.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 123.74 - 123.05 and the breakdown of the latter value will have to form a downward structure. In this case, the potential target is 122.03, up to this level, we expect clearance of expressed initial conditions for the downward cycle.

The main trend is the ascending structure of January 3, the stage of deep correction.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 125.15 Take profit: 125.76

Buy: 125.82 Take profit: 126.70

Sell: 123.70 Take profit: 123.10

Sell: 123.05 Take profit: 122.10

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For the currency pair Pound / Yen, the key levels on the H1 scale are 143.91, 142.82, 142.16, 141.04, 139.49, 138.91, 138.21 and 137.17. Here, we determined the subsequent targets for the top from the local ascending structure on January 15th. An upward movement is expected after the breakdown of 141.04. In this case, the target is 142.16 and in the range of 142.16 - 142.82 is the price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered the level of 143.91, upon reaching which we expect a rollback downwards.

The short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 139.49 - 138.91 and the breakdown of the latter value will lead to an in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 138.21 and this level is the key support for the top. Its breakdown will have a downward trend. In this case, the goal is 137.17.

The main trend is the local ascending structure of January 15.

Trading recommendations:

Buy: 141.05 Take profit: 142.05

Buy: 142.16 Take profit: 142.80

Sell: 139.45 Take profit: 138.93

Sell: 138.89 Take profit: 138.25

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Since June 2018, the EUR/USD pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Narrow sideway consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

Last week, a recent attempt of bullish breakout above 1.1520 (upper limit of the depicted movement channel) was executed. However, significant signs of bearish rejection were expressed below 1.1520 and 1.1420 on the daily charts.

This renders the recent bullish breakout above 1.1420 and 1.1520 as a false breakout. Hence, any bullish pullback towards 1.1420 can be considered as a valid SELL entry for intraday traders.

The current bearish decline below the key-level of 1.1400 encourages more sideway consolidations that may extend down to 1.1250 again where bullish rejection can be anticipated for a valid BUY entry.

On the other hand, in case a successful bullish breakout above 1.1420 is achieved again, this enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520, 1.1600 (October's High).

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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Since Mid-November, Successive Lower Highs were demonstrated around the price levels of 1.3060, 1.2920 and 1.2800 maintaining movement within the depicted H4 bearish channel (The RED one).

Shortly after, a quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.2500 where bullish recovery (Bullish Head & Shoulders pattern) could take place on December 12.

Hence, a successful bullish breakout above the depicted bearish channel was demonstrated on December 24.

Last week, another bullish breakout above 1.2720 was attempted to resume the bullish scenario of the market aiming towards 1.2880 and 1.3000.

For the bullish scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.2800 (Mid-Range) and 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted range) should be maintained on the H4 chart.

Strong bullish breakout above 1.2880 is mandatory for Buyers as a valid BUY signal to look for further bullish advancement towards 1.3020 where the depicted downtrend (in Blue) comes to meet the GBP/USD pair.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.2800 invalidates the bullish scenario bringing the GBP/USD pair again into sideway consolidations that may extend down towards 1.2720 (Lower limit of the depicted consolidation range).

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GBP/USD short-term technical levels with Linear Channels and trading recommendations for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

Blue channel is based on the price movement of yesterday.

Violet channel is based on the previous two-day consolidations.

Yellow channel is based on the previous three-day consolidations.

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The recent bullish movement of the GBP/USD which was initiated around 1.2700 has ceased to be dominant since Yesterday.

Lack of enough bullish momentum is demonstrated on the chart, so that the recent movement has turned into sideway consolidations.

The pair is currently moving within the depicted narrow sideway channel (BLUE channel) waiting for a bullish breakout above 1.2880-1.2900.

Bullish breakout above 1.2900 enables quick bullish movement towards 1.3000 where the upper limit of the movement channels are located (Intraday Resistance).

Looking to the downside, the GBP/USD pair has intraday support located around 1.2855 which corresponds to the middle range of the Yellowish channel. Any bearish pullback can be considered for valid BUY positions.

On the other hand, any bearish decline below 1.2850 (Mid-Range Support) enables further bearish decline towards 1.2700 where the lower limits of the depicted Violet and Yellow channels are located.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on January 17. Traders do not know what to do with the pound

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

The British pound remained bargained in the side channel in the first half of the day, with the prospect of further growth after the British Prime Minister Theresa May managed to keep her post after another vote because of a vote of no confidence. Purchases of GBP / USD today can be seen after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2812 or a rebound from the support of 1.2743. However, the main task remains a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.2880-90, which will resume the uptrend and will reach the highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

An unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.28800-90 will be the first signal for opening short positions in the pound, but the main task will be the breakdown and consolidation under the support of 1.2812, which will collapse GBP / USD to minima in the area of 1.2743 and 1.2672, where I recommend to fix the profit. In the case of a further uptrend, it is best to consider short positions from the new highs of 1.2964 and 1.3016.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade returned to the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Volatility remains low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on January 16. Data on inflation in the euro zone supported the euro

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Despite the report on inflation in the euro area, which coincided with the forecasts of economists, euro buyers managed to hold above the support level of 1.1375, which led to a resumption of demand in EUR / USD. The main task of buyers is to return to the resistance level of 1.1411, which will lead to a larger upward correction in the region of the maximum of 1.1451 and 1.1490, where I recommend fixing the profits. Weak data on the US labor market can help the bulls with correction. In the case of a repeated decline in the support area of 1.1375 in the afternoon, long positions are best returned to the rebound from the minimum of 1.1343.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The sellers did not manage to return to the support level of 1.1375, and for the second half of the day, their main task is to break through this range, which will lead to a larger EUR / USD sale with a minimum of 1.1343 and 1.1312, where I recommend fixing the profits. If, after the test of a minimum of 1.1375, a quick downward movement is not formed, as it was today in the first half of the day, I recommend closing short positions, since a large upward correction in euro can be formed from this level. When the growth scenario is above the resistance of 1.1411, against the background of weak fundamental statistics for the USA, it is best to consider short positions in EUR / USD on a rebound from 1.1451.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted below the 30-day and 50-moving averages, which indicates that the downward trend in the market continues.

Bollinger bands

The volatility of the Bollinger Bands indicator is low, which does not give signals to enter the market.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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BTC did a false breakout of the 2-day low at the price of $3.530, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I have found a strong reversal bar (reversal up-thrust), which is a sign that smart money did shake out the weak trading money. I have also found the breakout of the supply trendline, which is another sign of strength. Watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We are long BTC from $3.575 with the upward targets at the prrice of $3.647 and $3.687 and a protective stop below the level of $3.520.

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GBP/USD analysis for January 17, 2019

Trading 17 jan 2019 Commentaire »

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GBP/USD finaly made a breakout of the trading range (resistance) at the price of 1.2900 and we got confirmation to go long. There is strong impulsive movement in the background, which is a sign that recent trading range was more resting before new push higher. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities.

Trading recommendations for today: We are long GBP/USD from 1.2900 with upward targets at 1.2960 and 1.3042 and protective stop at 1.2820.

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