BITCOIN Analysis for December 28, 2018

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with bullish gains recently which engulfed a great number of bearish corrective candles with one go. After the price had been rejected off the $4,250 area, it managed to push lower near $3,600 area while sudden impulsive bullish momentum engulfed the previous corrective bearish pressure in the process. Currently the price is residing above 200 EMA again which indicates further bullish pressure in the coming days. The price is expected to push higher towards $4,250 again. The overall structure of Bitcoin is extremely volatile inside the price range of $3,500 to $4,250 area recently. On the other hand, a break above $4,250 could lead to strong bullish momentum with a target towards $5 000 in the future. As the price remains above $3,000 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,000, 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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EUR/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance at 1.1506 (100% & 61.8% Fibonacci extension, 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1363 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1506. Stop loss 1.1618. Take profit at 1.1363.

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AUD/JPY Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance at 78.69 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 77.62 (horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 94% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

AUD/JPY is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 78.69. Stop loss 79.39. Take profit at 77.62.

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NZD/USD approaching major descending trend line support, prepare to buy!

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

NZD/USD is testing major trend line support and we're looking to buy at 0.6665 (descending trend line support, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce to at least 0.6741 profit target (horizontal swing high resistance).

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CAD/CHF approaching major descending trend line support, prepare to buy!

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

CAD/CHF is testing major trend line support and we look to buy at 0.7226 (descending trend line support, horizontal swing low support) for a bounce to at least 0.7460 profit target (horizontal swing high resistance).

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USD/CAD approaching major ascending trend line resistance, prepare to sell!

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

USD/CAD is testing major trend line resistance and we look to sell at 1.3650 (ascending trend line resistance, horizontal swing high resistance) for a drop to at least 1.3421 profit target (horizontal swing low support).

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The British Parliament will be able to approve a Brexit deal if the plan for the Irish border is temporary

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

British Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt said that Parliament would agree to an agreement with the European Union under the terms of Brexit if the "safety" plan for the Irish border is temporary. As is known, the exit of Britain from the EU is scheduled for March 29, 2019.

At the same time, a "safety" plan for the border with Ireland can be implemented from January 2021, if the UK and the EU fail to resolve the issue of a "hard" border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. According to this plan, both the European Union and Britain will be located in a single customs territory, and it will be possible to refuse such conditions only by mutual consent of the parties.

British politicians opposed such an "insurance" plan since it implies the need for inspections at the border of Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain.

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Bitcoin analysis for December 28, 2018

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

According to the H4 time - frame, I found that BTC has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $3.547. I found that there is a breakout of the upward channel in the background, which is a sign that there is a potential change in the structure. I also found that there is a breakout of the support at $3.800, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of $3.110.

Support/Resistance

$3.800 – Intraday resistance

$3.545– Intraday support

$3.110 – Objective target

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The dollar took stock on the fly

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The ending of 2018 is marked by increased investor attention on stock indices. The collapse of the S & P 500 with subsequent attempts by the US administration to stabilize the situation did not leave indifferent participants in the FOREX market. Asylum assets in the face of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were especially popular. On the contrary, the US dollar lost ground. However, the "bulls" of one opponent's weakness will not be enough to continue the EUR / USD rally. We need our own trumps but you do not find them in the afternoon with fire.

The thin holiday market may turn into a loss of 9% or more for the US stock indices for the month, which, for example, for the S&P 500 will be the worst dynamic since the crisis. After all, it was precisely the high demand for papers issued in the United States that became the catalyst for the rally of the USD index in April-November. Compared with the global MSCI, "Americans" looked better for most of the year, which stimulated a flow of capital to the United States and contributed to the strengthening of the dollar. December sales led to a drop in liquidity below critical levels and forced US Secretary of Finance Steve Mnuchin to intervene.

Dynamics of liquidity and stock indices

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And yet, there is logic in the words of Donald Trump, who asserts that a strong stock market indicates a strong economy. It is precisely because of the advancing dynamics of the S & P 500 over the global MSCI for most of the year the US dollar has been growing. Will it be strengthened in 2019? The answer depends on which they want to lose speed faster, the US GDP or the global economy? The fading of fiscal stimulus, political dysfunction, threats to the independence of the Fed and the disabling of the US government increase the likelihood of a first scenario. But who knows what protectionism and import duties will turn for the eurozone, China and other countries.

Under current conditions, it is best to rely on US macroeconomic statistics. And it's not just the Fed's intention to make decisions based on incoming data. The point is the speed at which the American economy switches from fifth gear. If on the fourth, the dollar will continue to feel like a king. On the third or on the second, they will get rid of it as if they were tired toys. It should be considered that the economic calendar may be amended at any time due to temporary downtime of the executive. In this regard, important releases, including on the labor market in December, may come out somewhat later than is currently expected.

The growth of EUR / USD is associated not only with the closure of long positions on the US dollar. There are rumors in the market that at the slightest positive, the ECB will begin to normalize monetary policy. If a crisis happened in the Old World, he would not have enough firepower to resist.

Technically, the implementation of the combination of the "Three Indians" and "Splash and Regiment" patterns reinforces the risks of continuing the EUR / USD rally towards the target by 88.6% based on the Shark model.

EUR / USD daily chart

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USD/JPY analysis for December 28, 2018

Trading 28 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 110.15. According to the daily time – frame, I have found there is strong selling pressure on USD/JPY and that price breached the lower Keltner band, which is a clear-cut sign of weakness. I have also found that there is a very low reading on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. The support at 111.36 is also broken and has been re-tested in the background, which adds more downside pressure. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 109.78 and at the price of 109.43.

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