A portion of positive news for the dollar, or before the recession is far away

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

z01iJCvdTzgw-Ywkq5q8YkLNpcXxwxfYVwxL3Xkr

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week fell to an almost 49-year low, indicating a still strong labor market.

According to the Ministry of Labor, the initial applications for unemployment benefits fell by 1,000 to 216,000 applications for the week ending December 22. The index falls in three of the last four weeks and almost reached the 49-year low of 202,000 hits reached during the week ending September 15. Economists surveyed by Reuters predicted an increase in the number of applications to 217,000. The average number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, considered the best indicator of trends in the labor market, fell by 4,750 to 218,000 applications. The total number of people regularly receiving unemployment benefits also fell by 4,000 to 1.70 million people.

These data should reassure investors a little and support the dollar. Recall market concerns intensified after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates last week for the fourth time this year. Despite the fact that the regulator predicts a smaller number of rate hikes next year and signals that the tightening cycle is coming to an end in the conditions of financial market volatility and slowing global growth, many believe that even this will be much.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Technical analysis for GBPUSD for December 27, 2018

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

analytics5c24dfa4d69ee.jpg

Technical outlook:

An hourly chart has been depicted for GBP/USD for a short- and medium-term outlook. The single currency pair has been rallying from the 1.2480 levels, and it has formed a strong support at the 1.2530 levels as highlighted here. We have considered the rally between the levels of 1.2530 and 1.2740 in order to project a short-term trade setup and targets. As can be seen here, the Fibonacci 0.618 support is close to the 1.2610 levels, along with previous support zone just below the 1.2600 mark. It is quite possible that the prices may find support here and produce a bullish reversal going forward. If the above structure unfolds accordingly, bulls will likely take control and push the prices higher towards at least the 1.2850 levels. Ideally, the prices should remain above the 1.2530 and 1.2480 levels.

Trading plan:

Buy between the 1.2600/30 levels with a stop loss order below 1.2530, and the target of 1.2850.

Good luck!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Analysis of Bitcoin for December 27, 2018

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of 200 EMA after breaking below $4,000 area with a daily close recently. The price has recently formed Bullish Regular Divergence in the process while straddling at the edge of 200 EMA but the bullish momentum is still quite indecisive as the price remains below $4,000 area with a daily close. The resistance area of $4,000 is being covered by the Kumo Cloud resistance as well while Tenkan, Kijun and 20 EMA being the closest of all the resistances at the current price placement. The price is expected to push higher if it manages to break above $4,000 area with a daily close which will lead the price towards $4,250 and later towards $4,500 area.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,600

RESISTANCE: 4,000, 4,250, 4,500

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE and VOLATILE

analytics5c24d32d7f92d.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis of AUD/JPY for December 27, 2018

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

AUD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish pressure recently which had an impulsive bullish pressure with a daily close yesterday above 78.50 area. AUD managed to push against JPY yesterday in an impulsive manner but failed to sustain it today.

Despite JPY having worse economic reports recently, it managed to rise against AUD with certain impulsiveness today which indicates the level of volatility and indecisive pressure in the market. Recently the BOJ Core CPI report was published with a decrease to 0.5% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.6% along with the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Besides, BOJ Governor Kuroda's speech which was quite neutral for Japan's economy for the immediate effect but optimistic in some areas. Today Japan's Housing Starts report was published with a significant decrease to -0.6% from the previous value of 0.3% which was expected to be at -0.2%. Additionally, tomorrow Tokyo Core CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.9% from the previous value of 1.0%. Furthermore, the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 2.4% while the retail sales is expected to decrease to 2.1% from the previous value of 3.6% and the prelim industrial production report is expected to show a decrease as well to -1.7% from the previous value of 2.9%.

On the other hand, on the occasion of Christmas and Boxing Day, this week there were no economic reports or events on the AUD side leading the currency to lose certain grounds against JPY in the process.

As of the current scenario, JPY is currently gaining momentum quite impulsively against AUD but dovish expectation for the upcoming economic reports and worse results may lead to certain weakness of JPY in the coming days leading to certain short-term gains on the AUD side.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure after having a strong bullish candle pushing the price above 78.50 area yesterday with a daily close. The price is still expected to push higher but a daily close above 78.50 is expected to lead to an impulsive bullish pressure. As the trend is bearish, the bullish momentum is expected to be a pullback in the trend as the price continues its bearish pressure in the future. As the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 75.00, 77.00

RESISTANCE: 78.50, 80.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE

analytics5c24d2b7e025b.png

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

What will happen to the dollar in 2019?

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

In 2018, the US currency became the growth leader among its main competitors. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has increased by almost 5 percent. However, concerns about the slowdown in US GDP growth and the rate of normalization of monetary policy pursued by the Fed have added political risks. Therefore the question arises: will the "American" not be able to lose the profit in 2019?

Ljcv6-3KtDZ2uJAZ-SHOIrxdZ6yS_lW71CpqO3zE

Currently, the EUR / USD pair is trading near the 1.14 mark, weighing the chances of completing the Fed interest rate increase cycle and the weakening of the European and world economies.

The American Central Bank is still planning to raise the interest rate in the first half of next year, which could support the dollar. However, the process of tightening monetary policy may slow down, due to which the greenback risks being in limbo. At the last meeting of this year, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that decisions on the rate are not predetermined and will be taken based on the incoming data.

It is possible that the dollar will remain under pressure until the statistical data or the Federal Reserve signals to investors that the time has come for a rate hike, which still allows for the growth of the American currency.

Meanwhile, the derivatives market now estimates the probability of a rise in the federal funds rate in 2019 only at 22%. If it really remains unchanged at 2.5% level and the ECB starts to normalize the monetary policy from September. Then in the period of May-August, EUR / USD bulls will have an excellent reason for the attack. Supporting factors for the euro including the improving statistics for the euro area, the "soft" Brexit, the completion of the budget crisis in Italy, as well as the defeat of euro skeptics in the EU parliamentary elections.

As for the US economy, its growth is likely to slow down next year. However, global GDP may grow even slower than the US. In such conditions, as a rule, greenback feels quite confident.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD / JPY pair 12.27.18

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

This week, the pair is trading within the monthly CZ, which indicates a high probability of price retention within it and beyond. There was a test of a significant resistance zone yesterday, which led to the formation of a reversal pattern.

Today's decline in the pair should be perceived as a correction. Yesterday's US session closed above the 1/2 CZ of 111.14-111.05.To resume growth, it may require a better price. The defining support will be the 1/2 CZ of 110.53-110.45. While the pair is trading above this zone, the upward movement remains a priority. The goal of growth is the weekly CZ of 112.12-111.95 and achieving this zone will allow fixing most of the purchases.

LOELl3TI3oB9Cl9jwy6hbFQui-SnRddiJdntHmcc

The probability of growth is also confirmed on the higher timeframe, where the pair is testing the lower monthly CP. While the month is not closed, the probability of closing below this zone is close to 30%.

An alternative model will be developed if today's closure of the American session happens below 110.45. This will open the way for a decline of the pair and update the December low. It is important to understand that such a model in the future will lead to a return to the limits of a monthly fault with a probability of 90%. For this reason, considering this model for sale is not profitable.

48if4216wcZldwN1V4wp7p-jPAP8FT0AH3WwEt6n

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Control zones of USD / CHF pair 12.27.18

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

This week, the pair is trading between two significant zones of the average weekly move. There was a test of the upper zone yesterday, and a large offer appeared. This makes it possible to consider sales to the lower bound of the flat.

Trading movement within the zones of the average for the past 12 weeks allows you to cover some of the positions during their test and open opposing positions. It is important to understand that the probability of going beyond these zones is unlikely. This requires partial or complete fixation at the time of their test. Today, the decline is a priority model. Holding a short position is possible to the bottom.

DhcmWI9GpJqSli5VXZncUp2LOWzt0fwClgHRWGPR

From a short-term perspective, a decline to yesterday's low can be used to fix a short position. If growth resumes, it will be necessary to transfer the position to breakeven.

An alternative model will be developed in case the pair can consolidate above the a CZ of 0.9952-0.9942. The closure of the American session will confirm the change of priority to ascending. Working under this model will allow you to look for purchases tomorrow and moving positions to January is possible if the distance from your open position is more than 50pp.

RrpbtRTVbUugR-l4-yV-pxk_898d7_h7K53Vw_ND

Daily CZ - daily control zone. The area formed by important data from the futures market that change several times a year.

Weekly fault - weekly control zone. The area formed by marks from important futures market which change several times a year.

Monthly fault - monthly control zone. The area is a reflection of the average volatility over the past year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

ECB economic forecasts for 2019

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

analytics5c24c7cbdc0f0.jpg

In 2019, the global economy should slow down, the ECB said, noting that the regulator still expects price increases.

Literate investors are already preparing for a slowdown in economic growth around the world, mainly due to higher borrowing costs for dollar debtors and trade tensions between the United States and China. The ECB has supported these expectations in its regular economic bulletin, but at the same time, it is confident that "inflationary pressure will continue" both in the world and in the eurozone.

"Looking into the future, we expect that in 2019, global economic activity will slow down and remain stable in the future. We expect that global inflation pressure will slowly grow as reserve capacity decreases," the ECB said.

The bulletin does not contradict the recent decision of the ECB to stop the program of buying bonds in the amount of 2.6 trillion euros (2.96 trillion dollars) but to continue to reinvest the money that it receives from the redeemed securities. Some have criticized this decision as untimely in view of the weakening economy. But the ECB, whose sole purpose is to reach the inflation target, confirmed its confidence that the base prices in the eurozone will continue to rise.

"Core inflation is expected to gradually grow in the medium term, with the support of the ECB's monetary policy measures, continued economic growth and wage growth," the ECB said.

4s5PLIaO4l7SwCRips_TbvD4ZXFCpztatRWjHJnb

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Euro celebrates 20th anniversary

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

On January 1st of 2019, the single European currency, as well as the most liquid EUR/USD currency pair, celebrates its 20th anniversary. The euro was issued for non-cash payments on January 1, 1999, for cash on January 1, 2002. During the first two months after that, the euro and national currencies of the first eurozone countries were used by citizens in parallel, but then the countries completely abandoned the national currencies in favor of the euro. Currently, the euro is the single currency for more than 340 million citizens.

For 20 years, the euro has gone through many trials. The most memorable today is the crisis of sovereign debts of the countries of southern Europe, especially Greece. The main obstacle to the development of the euro is the existence of national governments of countries belonging to the euro area, and, as a result, the presence of many differences. However, the European Central Bank (ECB) quite successfully cope with the regulation of the European economy and with a high probability in 2019 will begin raising rates.

2vHW_hZLVEvKOpOEVAXFBfHRxSZkjnool_uZ1RgK

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD: plan for the American session on December 27. Pound buyers intensified at the bottom of the channel

Trading 27 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Pound buyers did not fight for the resistance of 1.2668 in the first half of the day and decided to show themselves in the support area of 1.2620, which I paid attention to in my morning review. At the moment, the task is to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 1.2668, which will lead to a more powerful upward impulse in a pound with a test of the upper limit of the side channel of 1.2714, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of a re-decline in the area of 1.2621, the pound may be left without the support of buyers, therefore, in such a scenario, it is best to consider new long positions to rebound from a low of 1.2567.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Sellers kept resistance 1.2668, however at the first attempt they could not break below the support of 1.2621. The task for the second half of the day will be a repeated decrease in this range and its breakdown, which will lead to a larger sale to the area of 1.2567, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of growth above the resistance of 1.2668 in the afternoon, short positions can be considered to rebound from a high of 1.2714.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving, which more indicates the formation of the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility has decreased, which does not give signals on market entry.

k8uLTbyS30KNqANx2QuZ1lLnywSRtxp4vLCUjjuw

Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com