A major US bank recommends betting on the growth of the Australian dollar

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Next year, the Australian dollar will rise in price in relation to the namesake from the United States by 12%, predict Bank of America. Investment bank analysts recommend that traders consider buying an "Aussie", which can bring good profits.

The growth of the Australian dollar in a large American bank is associated with the establishment of US-China relations and an increase in world trade. The optimistic scenario assumes the growth of the Australian currency to $ 0.81. It is possible that the course will go even higher. This, according to experts, will occur in the event of a serious increase in the pace of demand for commodities compared with today's data.Da0SEL4gkJUb-V8q5rH13i5nsGFjIoLK2kS0PAudThe main factors that will push the Australian dollar up, can also be attributed to the increase in the yield of Australian government bonds. As noted in Bank of America, of all the G7 countries, Australian securities in 2019 will show the strongest yield growth.

Taking advantage of the growth of oil and iron ore, the Aussie will be able to strengthen not only against the US dollar but also against the local currency assets of Asian countries. World investors will find the Australian stock market one of the most attractive in the new year.

According to banking experts, trade disputes between Washington and Beijing will exhaust themselves in the first half of 2019. It is expected that the parties will sign a package of agreements on mutual concessions.

Studying growth factors for Aussies, one should not lose sight of political events that can significantly change the balance of power in the foreign exchange market. To provoke a cessation of growth of the Australian dollar can federal elections. However, even their unexpected result is unlikely to undermine the potential of the "Australian", analysts summarized.

Since the beginning of this year, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 7.5%. On Thursday, the AUD / USD currency pair is trading in the red, in the region of $ 0.722.

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Brent and WTI crude oil prices collapse by 5%

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Today, Brent crude quotes crashed to $ 58.40 a barrel, losing more than 5% of the cost. Futures for WTI crude oil also fell by about 5%, falling to around $ 50.23 a barrel. This dynamic was the result of the reaction of the markets to the meeting of OPEC representatives in Vienna.

Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that there are no agreements for the next year in the framework of the OPEC + deal, but various proposals are being considered. The minister also noted that currently the organization plans to reduce production in the range of 0.5 million barrels per day to 2 million barrels per day. Al-Falih considers a reduction of 1 million barrels to be the optimal decrease in production. At the same time, the minister called for extending the agreement by more than six months.

Speech by the Saudis caused a negative market reaction, because before that the media had higher figures, namely, a reduction of 1.3 million barrels per day.

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Pound pending a fateful vote on Brexit

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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On December 11, the British parliamentarians will have to make a decision that can determine the scenario of the country's withdrawal from the European Union.

The question of whether the Brexit process will be controlled or not is still open.

There may be several options for the development of events.

1. If the House of Commons approves the "divorce" agreement, it will be signed by the UK and the EU, after which the United Kingdom will leave the alliance on March 29, 2019, and a transition period will begin, which will be completed by the end of 2020.

2. Lawmakers oppose, the country's withdrawal from the EU is carried out without a deal.

3. The probability of holding a second vote on an agreement in Parliament is not excluded.

"The situation is far from resolved. Most likely, there will be a second vote in parliament, which will be held early next year," said Citigroup representatives.

"It is assumed that Theresa May will get time for negotiations, will achieve minor concessions and will win the second parliamentary vote at the last moment in the first quarter," said Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

4. A new referendum on Brexit, which, according to Justine Greening, ex-minister of education in the office of Theresa May, can be preliminarily passed on May 30, 2019, is also possible.

"Britain still has a chance to unilaterally cancel Brexit and take a pause in order to decide what will happen next. During this time, it is possible, in particular, to hold a second plebiscite on terms fully defined by the United Kingdom," says JPMorgan specialist Malcolm Barr.

What will happen to the pound?

"Even if the parliament rejects the draft agreement, at this stage the reaction of the pound sterling may be restrained," believes Ulrich Leuchtmann of Commerzbank.

"The market equally lays in the price and exit without a deal and the abolition of Brexit. Therefore, no matter how the events unfold over the course of the next week, the pound may show sharp movements in any direction," said Nomura analyst Jordan Rochester.

"Our baseline scenario implies that the UK will not withdraw from the EU without a deal. We believe that in any case it will be concluded. Against this background, market sentiment towards the pound will become more positive. When political risks recede into the background, the GBP / USD pair is likely to rise to the level of 1.39," said currency strategists at Credit Agricole.

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Oil: OPEC meeting on reducing oil production has begun

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The first news appeared on the OPEC meeting. The Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia said that while an agreement has not been reached, since not all countries are ready to cut production. All possible solutions are being considered since it is important to agree on participation in a transaction with non-OPEC oil producers.

The Saudi minister said that reducing production by 1 million barrels per day, which has been talked about for quite some time, will be sufficient to balance the market, adding that his country does not need permission from any other countries to reduce production.

Iranian Oil Minister Zangeneh also said that Iran has nothing against reducing total production, but will not participate in the deal until the United States lifts the sanctions. According to him, this is the first time when the American president dictates OPEC what to do, which goes beyond what is permitted. According to Zangeneh, the acceptable range of oil prices, which would suit all the countries belonging to OPEC, is 60-70 dollars per barrel.

The Venezuelan oil minister also criticized the American president, saying that OPEC does not receive instructions from anyone, and Donald Trump should act as an observer outside OPEC.

Already appeared and dissent. For example, the Libyan oil state company NOC refused to reduce its production.

Let me remind you that the meeting is designed for two days, it is quite possible that today there will be no final decision.

As for the foreign exchange market, the European currency ignored today's data on the growth of orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany. According to the report, despite a sharp decline in domestic demand, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany grew in October of this year compared with September. Growth was directly associated with an increase in orders from other eurozone countries.

As indicated in the report from the Federal Bureau of Statistics of Germany, orders in the manufacturing sector in October 2018 increased by 0.3% compared with September, while economists expected the figure to remain unchanged.

As I noted above, domestic orders in the manufacturing sector in Germany declined by 3.2% in October compared with September, while orders from other eurozone countries rose by 7.3%. Demand from outside the eurozone increased by only 0.3%.

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Compared to October of the previous year, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 2.7%.

Today, a number of statements were made by the Ministry of Commerce of China. It was noted in them that the Chinese side will immediately begin to implement the agreements reached with the United States at the G20 summit at the weekend. It is also emphasized that the Chinese authorities intend to fulfill their obligations, and first of all, it concerns the car trade. Over the next three months, China and the United States will discuss issues of intellectual property, technology cooperation, and market access.

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It turns out that food prices may fall.

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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World food prices in November fell to their lowest level in more than two years, helped by lower prices for vegetable oils, dairy products, and cereals, the UN said.

The price index for food and agricultural products (FAO), which measures monthly changes in a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat, and sugar, averaged 160.8 points last month compared to 162.9 in October, the lowest level since May 2016. In November, the grain price index amounted to almost 164 points, which is 1.1 percent less than in October. Prices for vegetable oil fell for the 10th consecutive month, in November by 7.6 percent, and reached a 12-year low. Grain prices fell due to high yields, which affected rice exports, and high competition drove corn prices down. Palm oil prices have also dropped significantly, helped by large stocks from leading exporting countries and the recent decline in world prices for petroleum products. Soybean and sunflower oil prices have weakened due to high supplies from the US, the EU, and several developing countries. Prices for dairy products fell by 3.3 percent compared with October, the sixth monthly decline in a row, prices for meat decreased slightly.

FAO reported that cereal production in 2018-1919 amounted to 2.595 billion tons, which is slightly lower compared with the forecast and 2.4 percent lower than last year's record level. FAO's forecast for world wheat production in 2018/19 was 725.1 million tons, which is 2.8 million tons lower than in the previous forecast, reflecting a decrease in crop estimates this year in Turkey and the Russian Federation.

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GBP / USD pair: plan for the US session on December 6. Pound traded in a narrow range

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

The situation on the pound has not changed much. On the way, buyers formed a resistance level at 1.2752. Only a breakdown of which will signal a continuation of growth in the area of 1.2798, where I recommend taking profits. In the case of a decrease in the pound on the news on Brexit, support will be the area of 1.2702 and a breakdown can be best considered on new long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.2657 and 1.2615.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

Any negative news on Brexit will quickly return pound sellers. Consider short positions at the current time after the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2752 or to rebound from a maximum of 1.2798. The main task of the bears in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation below support 1.2702, which will lead to a new sale of GBP/USD pair with a breakthrough of the minimum near 1.2657 and exit to 1.2615, where I recommend taking profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility decreased. There are no market entry signals.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on December 6. The market is waiting

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

New serious data is not available, and traders took a pause before important reports from ADP, as well as on the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector. The situation compared with the morning forecast has not changed. Buyers of the European currency can only rely on the formation of a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1313, which will lead to an upward correction in the area of 1.1356 and 1.1391, where I recommend fixing the profits. A signal to buy EUR / USD will also be a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1356. In the case of a further decline, long positions are best returned to the rebound from a minimum of 1.1272.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The first test support of 1.1309 can lead to the formation of a small euro rebound up by 15-20 points. However, on the second decline to this level, most likely, a breakdown will be formed with an output of at least 1.1272, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of an upward correction in the second half of the day to the area of 1.1356, one can also see short positions in this range, provided that a false breakdown is formed. In a different scenario, you can sell EUR / USD immediately to rebound from a maximum of 1.1391.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility decreased. There are no market entry signals.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for December 06, 2018

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 30M time - frame, I found a shakeout in the background. I also found that sellers got trapped amid the breakout of the trading range, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of the strength. Watch for buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of $3.806, $3.838 and at the price of $3.872.

Support/Resistance

$3.806– Intraday resistance

$3.710– Intraday support

$3.806 – Objective target 1

$3.838 – Objective target 2

$3.872 – Objective target 3

With InstaForex you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 6, 2018

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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On October 30, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the lower limit of the H4 channel around 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

This week, unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720. Moreover, signs of bullish recovery originated around 1.2670 earlier Yesterday.

Bullish persistence above 1.2780 (78.6% Fibo level) is mandatory to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2880 and 1.2940 where new trading decisions should be taken upon price action.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2730 is quickly achieved on lower timeframes. Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 6, 2018

Trading 06 déc 2018 Commentaire »

On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.

On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.

On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.

The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until breakout occurs in either direction.

Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.

On the other hand, if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.

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