Palladium for the first time in 16 years has become more expensive than gold

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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According to the auction, the value of palladium surpassed the price of gold for the first time in 16 years, reaching $ 1,254.5 per troy ounce. At the same time, the gold price was fixed at $ 1243.15 per troy ounce.

Palladium went up amid fears about the shortage of this metal, which is widely used in the automotive industry. According to analysts, the metal deficit could increase in 2019 to 1.4 million ounces. In 2018, the palladium deficit is 1.2 million ounces. Experts also predict that metal supply will remain stable next year, while demand may increase.

In addition to the automotive industry, palladium is widely used in the chemical industry, medicine, and electronics.

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Predictions for 2019: Apple will swallow Tesla, the Fed chief will be fired, and Netflix will go bankrupt

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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Danish Saxo Bank has published a list of "shocking forecasts", which are positioned as "unlikely", but still have a place.

Solar flare and damage of two trillion. Considering the cycles of solar activity next year, a giant flash will occur that will cause a powerful magnetic storm. Because of this, most satellites over the western hemisphere of the Earth will be destroyed. Problems will arise in the areas of logistics, travel, electricity supply and other areas related to GPS. Experts estimate that a solar flare will cost $ 2 trillion for the global economy.

Apple will buy Tesla. Tesla will be in a difficult economic situation. And Apple will increasingly seek to enter the automotive market. Apple will finance the purchase of Tesla, which needs to be invested. Ilona Mask's shares will be bought at a price of $ 520 per share, $ 100 higher than in Mask's recent tweet. Apple has enough financial capacity to implement all the costly ideas of the founder of Tesla, and this will lead to the fact that the combined company will ensure its dominance in the automotive industry for many years.

Death of Netflix. In 2019, there will be problems in the corporate bond market. It all starts with the fact that the company General Electric finally loses the confidence of investors, the bankruptcy procedure begins. This will cause a domino effect. Investors will start to panic, Netflix will be in jeopardy because it has a big debt on its balance sheet. In addition, for Netflix, Disney's entry into the streaming video market will exacerbate the situation.

Also among the shocking projections, there is a version that the IMF and the World Bank will stop calculating GDP, and Trump will dismiss the Fed head, the reason for this will be the collapse of the US economy after the Fed again raises interest rates in the winter. By the summer, stocks will be in a deep hole, and the US yield curve will completely turn over. Enraged, Trump will fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and appoint Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, to take his place.

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Gold: the fight for a place in the sun continues

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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On the eve, the gold rate reached a maximum value for the first time since mid-July.

Today, the precious metal is getting cheaper by correction, bargaining around the $ 1240 mark for 1 ounce.

According to experts, the dynamics of gold is still highly dependent on the behavior of the dollar.

Since the beginning of the trade war, the dollar has become the main asset of the "safe haven" to hedge this risk.

In addition, during the year, it received support from the increase in the yield of US government bonds, which exceeded the rate of inflation in the country.

Meanwhile, even the stock market correction did not help gold. So, since the beginning of this year, the DAX index fell by almost 13%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index, more than 9%.

"The upward trend in the US currency is still in force, so in the near future, the precious metal is unlikely to be able to demonstrate steady growth," analysts say.

"However, in the longer term, given the risks for the dollar by the Fed, the outlook for gold may improve," they added.

According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs, next year, the price of gold could reach $ 1,350 for 1 ounce.

"If the pace of recovery of the American economy in 2019 slows down, then the demand for precious metals will show significant growth. In the current price of gold, 10 of the 12 expected interest rate hikes by the Fed have already been laid. Next year, the precious metal may become one of the most sought-after assets for trading among commodities," said bank spokesman Jeffrey Curry.

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Brexit: Why did the pound soar? The first debate on the Brexit agreement began in the British Parliament

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The debates and discussions that began in the British Parliament today on the Brexit issue, support the British pound, which sharply strengthened its position against the US dollar today in the morning. Weak data on the service sector was ignored by traders, although on a typical day such a sharp drop in the region of 50 points would have led to a massive sale of the British pound against a number of world currencies.

Today began the discussion in Parliament agreed by the government agreement on withdrawal from the EU. The discussion will last five days, and on December 11, there will be a final vote on this issue. It is possible that any news or insider will lead to a surge in volatility of the pound to either side.

As I noted above, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the UK services sector, which is quite important for the economy, dropped to 50.4 points this November, indicating a slowdown in economic growth at the end of this year.

In Markit said that the main reason for the decline was a sharp drop in the growth rate of new orders and the deterioration of expectations for the year ahead. The composite PMI index of Great Britain in November of this year fell to 51.0 points. Let me remind you that the index value below 50 points indicates a slowdown in activity. Considering that all the attention of traders is now focused on the Brexit debates, it is quite possible that the current report will simply be played in the future.

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In Markit also noticed that the current survey results for supply managers in the UK in November of this year may lead to the fact that the country's GDP in the 4th quarter will grow by only 0.1%.

As for the technical picture of the GBP / USD currency pair, it makes little sense to make any predictions about short-term movements. Large resistance levels are seen around 1.2815 and 1.2870, while support is located at 1.2680 and 1.2570.

The European currency has slightly risen against the US dollar, but it's difficult to talk about further maintaining the uptrend.

The report on the field of servants did not lead to significant changes in the market.

According to the data, the PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector of Italy rose to 50.3 in November of this year, returning above 50 points, while in October it is at the level of 49.2 points. Economists had expected the index to remain unchanged.

The PMI Purchasing Managers Index for the services sector of France in November, on the contrary, dropped to 55.1 points from 55.3 points in October of this year. Economists had forecast the index at 55.0 points.

In Germany, a similar service sector fell to 53.3 points against 54.7 points in October of this year. Economists had expected the PMI for Germany in November to be 53.3 points.

As for the eurozone, the purchasing managers' index for the services sector also slightly declined in November and amounted to 53.4 points against 53.7 points in October of this year. Economists had expected the index to decline to 53.1 points.

The technical picture in the EUR / USD currency pair remained unchanged. Only a breakthrough of a large support level in the area of 1.1310 can lead to a larger sale of the European currency with a rise to the lows of last month in the area of 1.1270. In the case of an upward correction, provided that the pair fails to break below 1.1310, the upward potential will be limited by resistances of 1.1380 and 1.1410.

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GBP / USD: plan for the American session on December 5. The pound ignores the bad data on the service industry and shows

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Just terrible data on the services sector in the UK were ignored by traders. This again shows that all attention is focused on Brexit and the decision of the parliament. It is best to consider long positions on the pound after updating the support of 1.2737 with the formation of a false breakdown there, or again to rebound from the low of 1.2674. In the scenario of a strong fall of the pound, you can immediately buy to rebound from the support of 1.2625 and 1.2569. The main goal of the bulls today will be a breakthrough of the level of 1.2812, above which resistance of 1.2868 is seen, where I recommend fixing the profits.

To open short positions on GBP / USD, you need:

Any negative news on Brexit will quickly return pound sellers. Consider short positions at the current moment can be from the resistance level of 1.2812 or immediately to rebound from a new high of 1.2868. The main task of the bears in the afternoon will be a breakthrough and consolidation below the support level of 1.2737, which will lead to a new sale of GBP / USD with a breakthrough of the daily minimum around 1.2674 and exit to 1.2625, where I recommend fixing the profits.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade has moved above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, but this does not mean the formation of a new upward wave.

Bollinger bands

In the case of a decrease in the pound, long positions can be returned immediately to the rebound from the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which is located in the area of 1.2674.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD: plan for the US session on December 5. Speech by the President of the ECB led to the strengthening of the euro

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD, you need:

The speech of the President of the ECB led to the strengthening of the euro, and as long as trade is conducted above the level of 1.1336, demand will remain, which will lead to the renewal of a larger area of 1.1374, where I recommend fixing the profits. Only statements by the Fed chairman regarding interest rates can lead to a further upward trend in the euro, reaching a maximum of 1.1408. In the case of a decline in EUR / USD in the second half of the day, you can rely on purchases to rebound from the support of 1.1301.

To open short positions on EUR / USD, you need:

Sellers need to return to the level of 1.1336, which may increase the pressure on the euro. However, the focus will be on the speech of the Fed Chairman. His statements regarding the need for further increases in interest rates may bring down the European currency in the support area of 1.1301 and 1.1272, where I recommend fixing the profits. If Powell repeats its recent statements about a neutral interest rate, the pressure on the US dollar may increase. In this scenario, it is best to open short positions in EUR / USD to rebound from a maximum of 1.1408.

Indicator signals:

Moving Averages

Trade is conducted in the area of 30 and 50-day moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Bollinger bands

Bollinger Bands indicator volatility decreased. There are no market entry signals.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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Major investment intrigues that can be resolved before the end of this year

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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According to experts, the past month in the financial markets was rather boring, except for the continued strong fall in oil prices. However, in recent days, the movement in many instruments has noticeably intensified, as if they have found a second wind. It is assumed that by the end of this year, 3 investment intrigues can be resolved, each of which is likely to provide traders with the opportunity to earn extra money before the holidays.

1. Will oil save from collapse?

The fate of the price of black gold should be determined this week in Vienna, where a meeting of the countries participating in the OPEC + agreement will take place on December 7. The decision taken at this meeting will determine where the quotes will go in the next few months.

The main intrigue now is that in the run-up to the December summit, the participants in the transaction receive contradictory information. Earlier, the media reported that Saudi Arabia is negotiating with partners in OPEC + to reduce the production of raw materials by at least 1 million barrels per day. At the same time, in a number of publications, figures of 1.4-1.5 million barrels per day could be found.

However, it is not long to wait, and depending on what the production quotas will be and by what value the "oil club" will be ready to reduce, by the end of the year, prices will either return to levels of $ 68-72 per barrel, or remain in the range of $ 60 -65 a barrel, if it turns out that for a complete balancing of the market, the volumes have not been reduced sufficiently.

2. Will the dollar weaken?

We can probably get an answer to this question when the last meetings of the ECB and the Fed are held this year. It is not yet clear how the market will respond to decisions, and especially to the rhetoric of financial regulators based on these meetings.

It should be noted that representatives of the IMF have long been talking about the overvaluation of the American currency, and many banks and large investment funds predict a weakening of its position. A dear dollar may not be necessary for the White House either, since it almost nullifies the effects of tax cuts and the imposition of customs duties.

Meanwhile, until the end of the cycle of increase in interest rates in the United States, about a year remains, and all future increases, apparently, have already been laid in the course of the American currency.

3. Will the pound stand?

After a lengthy negotiation process with the European Union, the UK authorities managed to secure the approval of the draft Brexit agreement by the remaining countries of the alliance. Now the British parliament has to decide whether to give the green light to the "divorce" contract.

On the eve of the House of Commons launched a five-day debate, anticipating scheduled for December 11 vote on a deal with the EU. Opening them, Prime Minister Theresa May stressed that a "divorce" from Brussels should not split the country into two camps.

"We will be able to take advantage of this moment (exit from the EU) only if we are able to implement such a Brexit, which will again unite our country," she said.

If the lawmakers do not approve the document, the fluctuation corridor of the GBP / USD pair may expand to 1.25-1.30, and then everything will depend on the development of the situation, whether the "tough" Brexit, the resignation of the prime minister and the second referendum follow.

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Pound Rises Against Majors

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Reversing direction, the pound advanced against its major counterparts in the European session on Wednesday.

The pound climbed to 2-day highs of 1.2762 against the franc and 0.8875 against the euro, from its early lows of 1.2669 and 0.8932, respectively.

Against the yen and the greenback, the pound rose to 144.54 and 1.2798, off its previous lows of 143.27 and 1.2672, respectively.

The pound is likely to find resistance around 1.30 against the franc, 0.86 against the euro, 147.00 against the yen and 1.29 against the greenback.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 5, 2018

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

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On October 30, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the lower limit of the H4 channel around 1.2700 where profitable BUY entries were suggested.

A Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where another descending high around the depicted downtrend was established.

This initiated the current bearish pullback towards the depicted consolidation-zone of (1.2750-1.2880) where the current sideway movement within the depicted H4 channel was initiated.

Recently, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the current consolidation range).

This week, unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720. Moreover, signs of bullish recovery originated around 1.2670 earlier Today.

Bullish persistence above 1.2780 (78.6% Fibo level) is mandatory to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2880 and 1.2940 where new trading decisions should be taken upon price action.

On the other hand, the current scenario may pursue a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2730 is achieved on lower timeframes quickly. Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is initially located around 1.2600.

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Carney Defends Bank Of England's Brexit Analysis

Trading 05 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney on Tuesday defended the central bank's analysis that a no-deal Brexit would cause a severe recession in the UK, the kind not even seen during the global financial crisis a decade ago.

The central bank and Carney faced lot of criticism with several pro-Brexit lawmakers accusing them of fear-mongering.

Responding to questions on the same from lawmakers at a hearing on Tuesday, Carney said some criticism was "entirely unfair".

"There's no exam crisis. We didn't just stay up all night and write a letter to the Treasury Committee. You asked for something that we had, and we brought it and we gave it to you," the BoE chief told lawmakers.

Carney said the probability of the worst-case Brexit scenario, which is the country leaving the EU without any agreement on future relationship, especially on trade, and a transition period, actually happening was low.

"Tail risk is tail risk," he said.

The BoE predicted that the economy could shrink as much as 8 percent next year in the event of a disorderly Brexit. House prices could rise 30 percent and inflation could hit 6.5 percent as the pound dives.

The jobless rate could rocket to 7.5 percent from 4.1 percent now and interest rates could be hiked sharply.

Carney added more to these on Tuesday, saying food prices could jump as much as 10 percent if there is a 25 percent slump in the pound due to a no-deal Brexit.

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent explained to lawmakers that food prices could climb under a no-deal Brexit as the import costs would be higher due to a weaker pound.

Some food items could face tariffs and costs at borders would be higher due to customs checks.

The BoE Governor also reminded lawmakers that the UK ports were not ready to deal with a disorderly Brexit when the UK will trade under rules set by the World Trade Organization.

"At this point in time, the ports are not ready for a move to an administered-WTO relationship," Carney said.

BoE policymakers also dismissed the idea that a Norway-model Brexit would work for the UK. Under this arrangement a non-EU member, such as Norway, remains a member of the single market by joining the European Economic Area, or EEA. However, the country will not have a say in rule-making. A Norway-style Brexit has been suggested as a temporary arrangement by some lawmakers, that can allow time for the UK to form a new permanent relationship with the EU.

Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe pointed out that the British financial industry is "20 times bigger than Norway's" and that the UK would feel "quite uncomfortable" in a group where it has no role in setting rules.

Carney also voiced concern that the UK would become a rule taker, with regard to financial services industry, in a future arrangement with the EU. That would be "highly undesirable", he said.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, former Governor of the Bank of England and Carney's predecessor Mervyn King wrote in a column for Bloomberg that the bank's worst-case scenario that the UK economy would take a savage hit due to a disorderly Brexit was not "plausible".


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