*New Zealand Building Activity Volume +0.7% In Q3

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

New Zealand Building Activity Volume +0.7% In Q3


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Australia Performance Of Service Index Jumps In November – AiG

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The service sector in Australia continued to expand in November, and at a sharply faster rate, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Wednesday with a Performance of Service Index score of 55.1.

That's up from 51.1 in October, and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Among the consumer-oriented service sectors, retail, hospitality and health continued to expand, while recreation remains in contraction territory.

Among the business-oriented service sectors, wholesale trade, finance and transportation all contracted, while communications continued to expand.


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*Australia Performance Of Service Index 55.1 In November – AiG

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Australia Performance Of Service Index 55.1 In November - AiG


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Australia GDP On Tap For Wednesday

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Australia will on Wednesday release Q3 numbers for gross domestic product, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

GDP is expected to rise 0.6 percent on quarter and 3.3 percent on year, moderating from 0.9 percent on quarter and 3.4 percent on year in the three months prior.

Australia also will see November results for the Performance of Service Index from AiG; in October, the index score was 51.1.

New Zealand will provide Q3 data for volume of all building and also see November numbers for commodity prices from ANZ. The value of building is expected to add 2.3 percent on quarter after gaining 0.8 percent in A2. Commodity prices fell 2.4 percent in October.

China will see November numbers for the services and composite indexes from Caixin; in October, their scores were 50.8 and 50.5, respectively.

Japan will provide November figures for the services and composite indexes from Nikkei; in October, their scores were 52.4 and 52.5, respectively.

Malaysia will release October data for imports, exports and trade balance. In September, imports were worth 67.8 billion ringgit and exports were at 83.0 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 15.3 billion ringgit.

The Philippines will provide Q3 unemployment data and November inflation numbers. In Q2, the jobless rate was 5.4 percent with a participation rate of 60.1 percent. In October, inflation was up 0.3 percent on month and 6.7 percent on year.

Hong Kong and Singapore will see November results for their private sector PMIs from Nikkei; in October, their scores were 48.6 and 53.6, respectively.

Finally, the markets in Thailand are closed on Wednesday in observance of the birthday of the late King Bhumibol and will re-open on Thursday.


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Crude Oil Futures Settle Modestly Higher

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices moved higher on Tuesday amid speculation the OPEC members, scheduled to meet in Vienna on December 6, will agree on a production cut.

The markets are also looking ahead to the crude inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Crude stockpiles in the U.S. have risen for ten straight weeks and it is widely expected that the data from UIA this week may well show another increase in inventories.

Crude oil futures for January delivery ended up $0.30, or 0.6%, at $53.25 a barrel. On Monday, crude oil futures had climbed up $2.02, or about 4%, to settle at $52.95 a barrel.

Demand growth worries eased a bit on Monday after the U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on a 90-day truce on their escalating trade war when they met during the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend.

Reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia have agreed to reduce oil production, Qatar's decision to pull out of OPEC and the recent announcement from Canadian province of Alberta that there would be an industry-wide 8.7% cut in oil production to deal with the supply gut, continued to support oil's uptick.

However, amid uncertainty about U.S. and China finding a solution to end their dispute before the expiry of the 90-day truce, concerns about a likely fall in demand for crude have resurfaced again. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened that more duties will be imposed on China if trade talks fell through.

According to media reports, OPEC and its allies are looking to reduce oil output by at least 1.3 million barrels per day.


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Treasuries Extend Upward Move Amid Uncertainty About Trade Truce

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

After turning higher over the course of the previous session, treasuries saw some further upside during the trading day on Tuesday.

Bond prices pulled back off their highs in the latter part of the session but remained firmly positive. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, slumped by 6.8 basis points to 2.924 percent.

With the notable decrease on the day, the ten-year yield ended the session at its lowest closing level in nearly three months.

The strength among treasuries came as traders looked to the safe haven of bonds amid skepticism about the trade war truce reached by President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Uncertainty about whether the 90-day truce will give the U.S. and China enough time to reach a long-term trade agreement contributed to the appeal of treasuries.

News that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, one of Trump's more hawkish advisors on trade with China, has been tapped to lead the negotiations added to the skepticism.

Trump has appeared optimistic about the potential for an agreement, claiming U.S. relations with China have taken a "big lead forward" as a result of his meeting with XI.

"Very good things will happen," Trump said in a post on Twitter. "We are dealing from great strength, but China likewise has much to gain if and when a deal is completed. Level the field!"

"President Xi and I have a very strong and personal relationship," he added. "He and I are the only two people that can bring about massive and very positive change, on trade and far beyond, between our two great Nations."

The bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for the national day of mourning for former President George H.W. Bush, with the release of most economic data postponed until Thursday.

Subsequently trading on Thursday is likely to be impacted by reaction to a slew of data, including reports on private sector employment, the U.S. trade deficit, weekly jobless claims, and service sector activity.


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Gold Futures Extend Recent Gains, Settle At Over 4-month High

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, extending recent gains, as equities tumbled and the greenback struggled against major currencies amid doubts about the U.S. and China finding a solution to end their trade disputes.

Stock prices plunged sharply on Wall Street, as the U.S. President Donald Trump's comments that more duties will be imposed on China if trade talks fell through triggered widespread selling.

The dollar index eased by about 0.16% as 10-year treasury yields declined to their lowest level since mid September.

Gold futures for February ended up $7.00, or 0.6%, at $1,246.60 an ounce, the highest settlement since July 25. On Monday, gold futures closed higher by $13.60, or 1.1%, at $1,239.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for March settled higher at $14.640 an ounce, while Copper futures for March ended weak at $2.759 per pound. On Monday, silver futures settled at $14.499 an ounce, while Copper futures closed at $2.8095 per pound.

Investor sentiment was upbeat on Monday as trade war concerns subsided after the U.S. and China agreed on a 90-day truce on Saturday following a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Argentina. However, the buoyant sentiment has now faded due to uncertainty about the two countries managing to work out a deal before the expiry of the truce period.

The dollar stayed sluggish and was hovering around previous closing levels, as traders continued to speculate that interest rate hikes may not be frequent next year as earlier thought. The minutes of the central bank's November meeting released last Thursday and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments a day earlier that interest rates were "just below" neutral have raised prospects of a pause in monetary tightening sometime soon.


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Dollar Trading Mixed Due To Trade Uncertainty

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar has recovered from its early losses against its major European rivals Tuesday afternoon, but remains down against the Japanese Yen. The initial excitement over the trade war truce reached by President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit over the weekend has cooled.

Uncertainty about whether the 90-day truce will give the U.S. and China enough time to reach a long-term trade agreement has caused traders to adopt a more cautious demeanor.

News that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, one of Trump's more hawkish advisors on trade with China, has been tapped to lead the negotiations has added to the skepticism.

The dollar dropped to over a 1-week low of $1.1418 against the Euro Tuesday morning, but has since rebounded to around $1.1340.

Eurozone producer price inflation accelerated further in October, defying expectations, figures from Eurostat showed Tuesday. Producer prices rose 4.9 percent year-on-year after a revised 4.6 percent in September. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged at September's original figure of 4.5 percent.

A leading European legal official said that the U.K. can still halt Brexit by revoking Article 50 without the consent of other EU member states.

The advocate general said Article 50 of the Libson Treaty allows the "unilateral revocation of the notification of the intention to withdraw from the European Union, until such time as the Withdrawal Agreement is formally concluded."

The Bank of England governor Mark Carney suggested that the probability of the occurrence of a disorderly Brexit is very low.

"Tail risk is tail risk, it's low probability. And MPs on the committee probably have a better idea about how Brexit will play out," Carney told Treasury Committee.

The buck fell to an early low of $1.2839 against the pound sterling Tuesday, but has since bounced back to around $1.2725.

British construction sector expanded at the fastest pace in four months in November, thanks to an increase in new work and consequent gains in job creation, though Brexit concerns damped expectations for the months ahead.

The CIPS construction Purchasing Managers' Index climbed to 53.4 from 53.2 in October, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Tuesday. Economists had forecast a score of 52.5.

The greenback has dropped to around Y112.735 against the Japanese Yen this afternoon, from an early high of Y113.637.

The monetary base in Japan was up 6.1 percent on year in November, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 501.330 trillion yen. That follows two straight months of 5.9 percent gains.


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BITCOIN Analysis for December 4, 2018

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive amid the recent bullish momentum after a decline towards $3,700. The price is currently residing above $4,000 and inside the Kumo Cloud resistance below 200 EMA, whereas the dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line are supporting the price for a further climb. The Chikou Span has broken above the price line. MACD having no signs of Bearish Divergence indicates that there are more chances of price pushing higher towards $4,250. If it manages to break above it with a daily close, further bullish pressure may be observed. On the other hand, if the price remains below the 200 EMA and Kumo Cloud resistance, further bearish pressure can be seen in the future. As the price remains below $4,250, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 3,500, 3,700

RESISTANCE: 4,250, 4,500, 5,000

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c0697e50af71.png

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 4, 2018

Trading 04 déc 2018 Commentaire »

USD/JPY has been quite impressive amid the impulsive bearish pressure today which pushed the price below 113.00 area. Despite mixed economic reports from Japan, JPY managed to gain momentum over USD ahead of high impact events like NFP and Rate Hike in the coming days.

USD started the week with severe weakness against JPY. Thus, USD could lose more strength. FED members recently stated that they would not react to every rise and fall which confused the market sentiment ahead of a rate hike this month which dealt a blow to the US currency. This week US ISM Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight increase to 59.3 from the previous figure of 57.7 which was expected to decrease to 57.5 and Construction Spending report was published unchanged at -0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.4%. Moreover, FOMC member Williams is due to speak about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy decisions. Ahead of NFP this week which is expected to have mixed readings, USD is going to trade with an indecisive dynamic ahead of the policy meeting of the FOMC this month.

On the JPY side, recently Capital Spending report was published with a decrease to 4.5% from the previous value of 12.8% which was expected to be at 8.6% and Final Manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 52.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 51.8. Today Japan's Monetary Base report was published with an increase to 6.1% from the previous value of 5.9% which was expected to decrease to 5.7%.

Japan will post an Average Cash Earnings report Friday which is expected to increase to 1.0% from the previous value of 0.8%. Thus, JPY is expected to gain further in the process. On the other hand, NFP reports are expected to reveal mixed data. Until USD comes up with solid economic reports or events in the coming days, JPY is expected to sustain its momentum.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 113.00 area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which if have a daily close today, further bearish pressure leading the price towards 112.00 area is expected. The market is still quite volatile, and no definite trend pressure can be recognized currently. As the price remains below 114.50 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00

RESISTANCE: 113.00, 114.50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

analytics5c0697943719b.png

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