Treasuries Move Notably Lower Following Upbeat Jobs Data

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Following the modest rebound seen in the previous session, treasuries showed a notable move back to the downside during trading on Friday.

Bond prices moved steadily lower over the course of the session before ending the day firmly in negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, advanced by 7 basis points to 3.214 percent.

The sharp pullback by treasuries came following the release of a closely watched Labor Department report showing stronger than expected job growth in the month of October.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September. Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs.

The report also said the unemployment rate in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

Average hourly employee earnings rose by $0.05 to $27.30 in October, reflecting a 3.1 percent increase compared to the same month a year ago.

The annual rate of hourly earnings growth accelerated from 2.8 percent in September, reaching the fastest pace since April of 2009.

The upbeat jobs data paints of positive picture for the U.S. economy but also led to renewed concerns about the outlook for interest rates.

"The U.S. jobs market remains incredibly strong and with wages starting to accelerate, domestic price pressures will increase," said ING Chief International Economist James Knightley.

He added, "This will keep the Federal Reserve on its path of 'gradual' interest rate hikes with next week's FOMC meeting set to signal a December move."

Results of Tuesday's midterm elections may impact next week's trading, with Democratic leaders optimistic they can retake control the House.

Traders are also likely to keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision due to be announced next Thursday.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, although the accompanying statement may provide clues about the anticipated rate hike next month.

The election results and Fed meeting may overshadow reports on service sector activity, producer price inflation and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the Fed announcement, the Treasury Department is due to sell $37 billion worth of three-year notes next Monday, $27 billion worth of ten-year notes next Tuesday, and $19 billion worth of thirty-year bonds next Wednesday.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Dollar Slightly Higher As Traders Focus On Trade Developments

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar is up slightly against all of its major rivals Friday afternoon. Traders have been keeping a close eye on reports regarding the trade dispute between the U.S. and China at the end of the week.

While a report from Bloomberg indicated Trump has asked key U.S. officials to begin drafting potential terms of a trade deal with China, senior administration officials have denied an agreement is imminent.

Trump's chief economic advisor Larry Kudlow told CNBC there has been "no massive movement to deal with China."

"We're doing a normal, routine run-through of things that we've already put together and normal preparation," Kudlow said. "We're not on the cusp of a deal."

A closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday showed employment in the U.S. jumped by much more than anticipated in the month of October. The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs compared to the addition of 134,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Meanwhile, the report said the unemployment rate in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

With the value of imports rising by more than the value of exports, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing the U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in the month of September. The report said the trade deficit widened to $54.0 billion in September from a revised $53.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $53.6 billion.

New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday. The Commerce Department said factory orders climbed by 0.7 percent in September after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.6 percent in August.

Economists had expected factory orders to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 2.3 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

The dollar dropped to a low of $1.1455 against the Euro Friday, but has since rebounded to around $1.1385.

The euro area manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in October, final data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for Eurozone fell to a 26-month low of 52.0 from 53.2 in September.

German manufacturing sector growth eased to its lowest in nearly two-and-a-half years in October as orders dropped for the first time since late-2014, final data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index, or PMI, dropped to 52.2 from 53.7 in September.

France's manufacturing sector slowed in October, in line with initial estimations, at the slowest pace in over two years, final figures from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, fell to 51.2 from 52.5 in September. The latest reading was the lowest in 25 months.

The buck fell to an early low of $1.3040 against the pound sterling Friday, but has since bounced back to around $1.2965.

UK construction sector expansion unexpectedly accelerated in October, but firms were the least optimistic about prospects in nearly six years, survey data from IHS Markit showed on Friday. The IHS Markit/ Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply construction Purchasing Managers' Index, or PMI, rose to 53.2 from 52.1 in September. Economists had expected a score of 52.

The greenback has climbed to around Y113.265 against the Japanese Yen Friday afternoon, from an early low of Y112.654.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Factory Orders Climb More Than Expected In September

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

New orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by more than expected in the month of September, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday.

The Commerce Department said factory orders climbed by 0.7 percent in September after spiking by an upwardly revised 2.6 percent in August.

Economists had expected factory orders to rise by 0.5 percent compared to the 2.3 percent jump originally reported for the previous month.

Durable goods orders increased by a downwardly revised 0.7 percent in September after soaring by 4.7 percent in August. Orders for transportation equipment led the way higher once again, surging up by 1.9 percent.

The report said orders for non-durable goods also rose by 0.6 percent in September, matching the increase seen in the previous month.

The Commerce Department also said shipments of manufactured goods increased by 0.9 percent in September after climbing by 0.7 percent in August.

Inventories of manufactured goods also rose by 0.5 percent in September following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in the previous month.

With shipments rising more than inventories, the inventories-to-shipments ratio dipped to 1.33 in September from 1.34 in August.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Loonie Weakens As Canada Job Growth Slows

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

The Canadian dollar fell against its most major opponents in the European session on Friday, after a data showed that the economy added fewer jobs than forecast in October.

Data from Statistics Canada showed that employment increased by 11,200 jobs in October after rising by 63,300 jobs in September.

Economists had forecast an increase of 15,000 jobs for the month.

Unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 5.8 percent from 5.9 percent in September. Economists had expected the rate to remain unchanged from the previous month.

Separate data showed that Canadian trade deficit widened more than forecast in the month of September.

The report said the trade deficit widened to C$0.4 billion in September, higher than the C$0.2 billion shortfall expected by economists. The trade balance showed a deficit of C$0.5 billion in August.

Imports fell 0.4 percent, while exports edged down 0.2 percent.

The currency traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it rose against the greenback and the yen, it fell against the euro and the aussie.

The loonie retreated to 86.13 against the yen, after rising to a 9-day high of 86.61 at 3:00 am ET. If the loonie falls further, 84.00 is likely seen as its next support level.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan monetary base rose 5.9 percent on year in October, coming in at 501.619 trillion yen.

That was unchanged from the previous month, which also saw a 5.9 percent jump.

The loonie declined to a 9-day low of 1.4980 against the euro, from a high of 1.4910 hit at 2:45 am ET. Next key support for the loonie is seen around the 1.51 region.

Final data from IHS Markit showed that the euro area manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in October.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for Eurozone fell to a 26-month low of 52.0 from 53.2 in September.

The loonie reversed from an early 8-day high of 1.3049 against the greenback, falling to 1.3110. On the downside, 1.32 is likely seen as the next support level for the loonie.

Data from the Labor Department showed stronger than expected U.S. job growth in the month of October.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September. Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs.

On the flip side, the loonie advanced to 0.9425 against the aussie, from more than a 5-week low of 0.9480 hit at 1:00 am ET. The loonie is poised to find resistance around the 0.93 mark.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that Australia retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on month in September, coming in at A$26.892 billion.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 0.3 percent, which would have been unchanged from the August reading.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Global macro overview for 02/11/2018

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

The US labor market report (NFP) pointed to an increase in employment in October by 250,000, much more than the expected 200,000. September data has been revised down to 118,000 (from 134,000 previously) and both figures can be explained by disturbances caused by hurricanes. Traditionally, the main focus is on wage dynamics, which at 0.2% m / m and 3.1% y / y fall as expected. The unemployment rate, according to forecasts, remained at 3.7%. Apart from the confusion with employment, the rest of the report is not a source of surprises, hence the reasoned moderate reaction of the USD.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market felt out of the uprising channel after the new swing high was made at the level of 97.21. The impulsive wave down has completed at the level of 96.00 and since then the market is trying to continue the rally again. The better than expected data from the US job market has pushed the prices towards the level of technical resistance at 96.40. The oversold trading conditions support the short-term bullish bias, so the price might reach even the level of 96.87 before the bears will try to take the control over the market.

analytics5bdc6bcdf0897.jpg

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*U.S. Factory Orders Climb 0.7% In September

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

U.S. Factory Orders Climb 0.7% In September


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Upbeat U.S. Jobs Data Lifts Dollar

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar strengthened against its major counterparts in the European session on Friday, following a data showing better than expected U.S. job growth for October, which cemented Fed rate hike hopes in December.

Data from the Labor Department showed that non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs compared to the addition of 134,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Unemployment rate in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

Meanwhile, data from the Commerce Department showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in September as the value of imports rose more than the value of exports.

The report said the trade deficit widened to $54.0 billion in September from a revised $53.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $53.6 billion.

Investors cheered positive comments from U.S. President Donald Trump about potential progress in U.S.-China trade relations.

A Bloomberg report later said that Trump wanted to reach a trade agreement with China at the G20 meeting and has asked U.S. cabinet officials to draft potential terms.

The currency traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it held steady against the franc and the pound, it rose against the yen. Against the euro, it fell.

The greenback advanced to 1.2983 against the pound, following a decline to a 10-day low of 1.3041 at 5:30 am ET. The greenback is likely to find resistance around the 1.27 level.

Survey data from IHS Markit showed that UK construction sector growth unexpectedly improved in October on a strong rebound in civil engineering, despite slower demand and business optimism at a 6-year low.

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK construction purchasing managers' index, or PMI, rose to 53.2 from 52.1 in September. Economists had expected a score of 52.

The greenback rose back to 113.03 against the yen, not far from a 2-day high of 113.10 touched at 1:20 am ET. This follows a 3-day low of 112.56 hit at 6:15 pm ET. On the upside, 115.00 is likely seen as the next resistance level for the greenback.

Data from the Bank of Japan showed that Japan monetary base rose 5.9 percent on year in October, coming in at 501.619 trillion yen.

That was unchanged from the previous month, which also saw a 5.9 percent jump.

After having dropped to a 9-day low of 1.1456 against the euro at 7:00 am ET, the greenback reversed direction and bounced off to 1.1411. Next key resistance for the greenback is seen around the 1.12 area.

Final data from IHS Markit showed that the euro area manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in more than two years in October.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for Eurozone fell to a 26-month low of 52.0 from 53.2 in September.

The greenback recovered to 1.3110 against the loonie, 0.6651 against the kiwi and 0.7204 against the aussie, reversing from its early 8-day low of 1.3049, more than 5-week lows of 0.6690 and 0.7258, respectively. The next possible resistance for the greenback is seen around 1.32 against the loonie, 0.70 against the aussie and 0.65 against the kiwi.

The greenback recouped some of its early losses against the franc with the pair trading at 1.0000. This may be compared to a 3-day low of 0.9968 seen at 7:00 am ET. If the greenback rises further, it may challenge resistance around the 1.01 level.

Data from the Federal Statistical Office showed that Switzerland's retail sales declined at the fastest pace since late 2016 in September.

Retail turnover fell 2.7 percent year-on-year in September after a revised 0.5 percent rise in August. This was the biggest fall since December 2016, when sales were down 4.2 percent.

The U.S. factory orders and durable goods orders for September are slated for release at 10:00 am ET.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected $54.0 Billion

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

With the value of imports rising by more than the value of exports, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing the U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in the month of September.

The report said the trade deficit widened to $54.0 billion in September from a revised $53.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $53.6 billion.

The wider than expected trade deficit came as the value of imports jumped by $3.8 billion or 1.5 percent to $266.6 billion in September from $262.8 billion in August.

Notable increases in imports of capital goods and consumer goods more than offset a drop in imports of trucks, buses, and special purpose vehicles.

Meanwhile, the value of exports also surged up by $3.1 billion or 1.5 percent to $212.6 billion in September from $209.4 billion in August.

Exports of industrial supplies and materials and civilian aircraft showed significant increases, while exports of soybeans continued to decrease amid Chinese tariffs.

"Export growth will remain muted over the next few months, reflecting the dollar's rebound and the drop off in global economic growth," said Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics.

The Commerce Department also said the goods deficit widened to $77.2 billion in September from $7.6 billion in August, while the services surplus edged down to $23.2 billion from $23.3 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Job Growth Accelerates Much More Than Expected In October

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

A closely watched report released by the Labor Department on Friday showed employment in the U.S. jumped by much more than anticipated in the month of October.

The Labor Department said non-farm payroll employment surged up by 250,000 jobs in October after rising by a downwardly revised 118,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 190,000 jobs compared to the addition of 134,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Paul Ashworth, Chief U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said the significant acceleration in the pace of job growth confirms Hurricane Florence temporarily depressed employment in September.

"The [Bureau of Labor Statistics] suggests that Hurricane Michael, which struck Florida during the October survey period, had no discernible effect," Ashworth said.

He added, "But it's possible that we could be in for another 200,000 plus number in November, as the remainder of those disruptions is reversed."

The bigger than expected jump in employment in October partly reflected notable job growth in the healthcare, manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing sectors.

Meanwhile, the report said the unemployment rate in October was unchanged from the previous month at 3.7 percent, its lowest level since hitting 3.5 percent in December of 1969.

The unemployment rate came in unchanged as the household survey measure of employment showed a substantial increase of 600,000 compared to the 711,000-person spike in the size of the labor force.

The Labor Department also said average hourly employee earnings rose by $0.05 to $27.30 in October.

Average hourly earnings were up by 3.1 percent compared to the same month a year ago, reflecting an acceleration from the 2.8 percent increase in September.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Trade Deficit Widens More Than Expected In September

Trading 02 nov 2018 Commentaire »

With the value of imports rising by more than the value of exports, the Commerce Department released a report on Friday showing the U.S. trade deficit widened more than expected in the month of September.

The report said the trade deficit widened to $54.0 billion in September from a revised $53.3 billion in August. Economists had expected the trade deficit to widen to $53.6 billion.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com