Crude Oil Ends Lower For 3rd Straight Session

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices slipped on Wednesday, extending recent slide, as data from U.S. Energy Information Administration showed crude stockpiles increased last week, rising for a sixth successive week.

However, with last week's increase turning out to be less than expected, oil's fall was somewhat limited.

Crude oil futures for December ended down $0.87, or 1.3%, at $65.31 a barrel. On Tuesday, crude oil futures closed down $0.86, or 1.3%, at $66.18 a barrel.

In October, crude oil shed about 11%, the biggest monthly loss in more than two years.

According to the data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories increased by 3.22 million barrels in the week ended October 26, less than forecasts for an over 4 million barrels increase. Earlier, U.S. crude stockpiles had increased more than expected on five successive weeks.

The report from EIA said gasoline inventories fell by 3.16 million barrels in the week ended October 26, about million barrels more than the expected drop.

A report released by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed U.S. crude supplies rose by 5.7 million barrels last week, more than analyst forecasts for a 4.1 million-barrel build.

Meanwhile, with U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports set to commence this Sunday, the market is waiting to see as to what extent global supply will be impacted due to loss of Iranian oil.

According to recent reports, Iran's oil ministry started selling crude oil to private companies in the country for export, aiming to counter the sanctions.


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Treasuries Move Notably Lower Following Upbeat Jobs Data

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Extending the downward move seen over the two previous sessions, treasuries moved notably lower during the trading day on Wednesday.

Bond prices came under pressure early in the day and remained firmly negative throughout the session. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, climbed by 4.9 basis points to 3.159 percent.

The continued weakness among treasuries came after a report from payroll processor ADP showed another significant increase in employment in the U.S. private sector in the month of October.

ADP said private employment jumped by 227,000 jobs in October after surging up by a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The stronger than expected job growth in October reflected the biggest increase in private sector employment since a jump of 241,000 jobs in February.

"Despite a significant shortage in skilled talent, the labor market continues to grow," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "We saw significant gains across all industries with trade and leisure and hospitality leading the way."

She added, "We continue to see larger employers benefit in this environment as they are more apt to provide the competitive wages and strong benefits employees desire."

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its more closely watched monthly jobs report, which includes both public and private sector jobs.

Employment is expected to climb by 190,000 jobs in October after rising by 134,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.7 percent.

Continued strength on Wall Street also weighed on treasuries, with stocks extending the strong upward move seen late in the previous session.

The extended rally by stocks comes on the final day of what remains on pace to be one of the worst months in years.

A slew of economic data is scheduled to be released on Thursday, including reports on weekly jobless claims, labor productivity and costs, manufacturing activity and construction spending.

Trading activity may be somewhat subdued, however, as traders look ahead to the release of the Labor Department's monthly jobs report on Friday.


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Dollar Trading Mixed Despite Solid Employment Data

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar is turning in a mixed performance against its major rivals Wednesday afternoon. The currency is up against the Euro, but is down against the British pound and the Japanese Yen. Traders were encouraged by the release of the better than expected private sector employment data this morning.

Payroll processor ADP released a report on Wednesday showing another significant increase in employment in the U.S. private sector in the month of October. ADP said private employment jumped by 227,000 jobs in October after surging up by a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

Growth in Chicago-area business activity decelerated for the third straight month in October, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Wednesday.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer fell to 58.4 in October from 60.4 in September, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 60.0.

The dollar has climbed to over a 2-month high of $1.1310 against the Euro Wednesday afternoon, from an early low of $1.1360.

Eurozone inflation accelerated to a near six-year high in October largely on energy prices and the unemployment rate was at its lowest since 2008, despite the economy growing at the slowest pace in four years.

Inflation rose to 2.2 percent in October from 2.1 percent in September, flash data from Eurostat showed Wednesday. A similar higher rate was last seen in December 2012. The rate came in line with expectations.

The euro area jobless rate remained unchanged at its lowest level in almost a decade in September, figures from Eurostat showed Wednesday. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at seasonally adjusted 8.1 percent in September. This was the lowest since November 2008 and matched economists' expectations.

Germany's retail sales monthly growth in September was less than what economists expected, preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office showed on Wednesday. Retail sales in real terms edged up a calendar and seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent from August, when sales fell 0.3 percent, revised from 0.1 percent. Economists had forecast a 0.5 percent increase.

France's consumer price inflation was steady in October, after easing in the previous month, preliminary data from the statistical office INSEE showed on Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 2.2 percent year-on-year, same as in September. Economists had forecast a modest acceleration to 2.3 percent.

The buck has dropped to around $1.2760 against the pound sterling this afternoon, from an early high of $1.27.

UK consumer confidence weakened as expected in October, market research firm GfK reportedly said Wednesday. The consumer sentiment index dropped to -10 in October from -9 in September. The reading came in line with expectations.

The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary stimulus, but downgraded the inflation forecast signaling that price growth will not reach 2 percent target until March 2021.

For the fiscal year 2018, real growth projection was trimmed to 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent, and inflation forecast to 0.9 percent from 1.1 percent.

Further, the bank downgraded its inflation forecast for fiscal 2019 to 1.9 percent from 2 percent, and that for fiscal 2020 to 2 percent from 2.1 percent.

The greenback reached a high of Y113.385 against the Japanese Yen Wednesday, but has since eased back to around Y112.990.

Industrial production in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 1.1 percent on month in September, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Wednesday. That missed expectations for a decline of 0.3 percent following the 0.2 percent gain in August.

Japan's consumer confidence weakened unexpectedly in October to its lowest level in nearly two years, survey data from the Cabinet Office showed on Wednesday. The consumer confidence indicator fell to 43 from 43.4 in September. Economists had forecast a score of 43.5.

Japan's housing starts decreased in September, after rising in the previous month, at a faster than expected pace, figures from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism showed on Wednesday.

The number of new dwelling starts dropped 1.5 percent year-on-year following a 1.6 percent increase in August. Economists had forecast a 0.6 percent fall.


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Gold Futures Settle At 3-week Low

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Gold prices dropped to a 3-week low on Wednesday, as the dollar rose to over 1-year high, riding on upbeat U.S. consumer confidence data.

A rally in global stock markets too contributed to the yellow metal's decline. U.S. stocks moved higher on strong private sector employment data and encouraging earnings reports from Facebook, General Motors and eBay.

The dollar index gained about 0.2% to 97.16, as traders continued to bet on U.S. economic growth and interest rate hikes this December and in the coming year.

Data released by the Conference Board on Tuesday showed U.S. consumer confidence to have increased in October, hitting its highest level since September 2000. The board's consumer confidence index rose to 137.9 in the month, from a downwardly revised 135.3 in September.

Economists had expected the consumer confidence index to drop to 136.3 from the 138.4 originally reported for the previous month.

Gold futures for December ended down $10.30, or 0.8%, at $1,215.00 an ounce, the lowest settlement in three weeks. On Tuesday, gold futures closed down by $2.30, or 0.2%, at $1,225.30 an ounce. In October, gold futures gained over 2%.

Silver futures for December ended lower by $0.180, at $14.282 an ounce.

Copper futures for December settled at $2.6590 per pound, losing $0.0050 for the session.

According to a report released by Payroll processor ADP today, there was a significant increase in employment in the U.S. private sector in October. ADP said private employment jumped by 227,000 jobs in October after surging up by a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The stronger than expected job growth in October reflected the biggest increase in private sector employment since a jump of 241,000 jobs in February.


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*U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Rise By 3.2 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/26

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Rise By 3.2 Million Barrels In Week Ended 10/26


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Upbeat ADP Private Payrolls Data Buoys Dollar

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar was higher against its key counterparts in the European session on Wednesday, as U.S. private sector employment increased more than forecast in October, bolstering hopes for a Fed rate hike in December.

Data from payroll processor ADP showed another significant increase in employment in the U.S. private sector in the month of October.

ADP said private employment jumped by 227,000 jobs in October after surging up by a downwardly revised 218,000 jobs in September.

Economists had expected an increase of about 189,000 jobs compared to the addition of 230,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

The data serves as a prelude to all important jobs data due on Friday. Economists expect the economy to add 193,000 jobs in October with an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.

The currency held steady against its major rivals in the Asian session, with the exception of the yen.

The greenback appreciated 0.4 percent to 1.0072 against the franc, a level unseen since May 2017. This follows a low of 1.0034 hit at 4:45 am ET. If the greenback rises further, it may challenge resistance around the 1.02 level.

The greenback rose back to 113.27 against the yen, just few pips short of a new 3-week high of 113.33 touched at 9:00 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding resistance around the 115.00 region.

The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary stimulus, as widely expected.

The policy board of the BoJ decided to purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

The greenback added 0.4 percent to a 2-1/2-month high of 1.1316 against the euro, after falling to 1.1360 at 4:45 am ET. The pair was valued at 1.1343 when it ended deals on Tuesday. The greenback is likely to find resistance around the 1.12 level.

Flash data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone inflation accelerated in October largely on higher energy prices.

Inflation rose to 2.2 percent in October from 2.1 percent in September. The rate came in line with expectations.

The greenback reversed from an early low of 1.2780 against the pound, rebounding to 1.2733. On the upside, 1.26 is likely seen as the next resistance level for the greenback.

Survey by market research firm GfK showed that UK consumer confidence weakened as expected in October.

The consumer sentiment index dropped to -10 in October from -9 in September. The reading came in line with expectations.

Extending early rally, the greenback advanced to 0.6528 against the kiwi. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 0.6553. Next key resistance for the greenback is seen around the 0.64 area.

The greenback bounced off to 1.3140 against the loonie and 0.7080 against the aussie, from its early lows of 1.3105 and 0.7107,respectively. The next possible resistance for the greenback is seen around 1.33 against the loonie and 0.69 against the aussie.


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Chicago Business Barometer Indicates Continued Deceleration In October

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Growth in Chicago-area business activity decelerated for the third straight month in October, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Wednesday.

MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer fell to 58.4 in October from 60.4 in September, although a reading above 50 still indicates growth. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 60.0.

The bigger than expected drop by the business barometer came as a decline in order book growth and unfinished orders more than offset a rise in output, delivery times and employment.

"The MNI Chicago Business Barometer continued to revert back towards trend-levels in October, cooling off after a hot and unsustainable run last year," said Jamie Satchi, Economist at MNI Indicators. He added, "Production continues to be restrained by issues between firms and their suppliers, reflected by Supplier Deliveries at a 14-year high, while the latest raft of tariffs on Chinese goods appears to be exacerbating uncertainty across firms."

The report said the new orders index fell for the sixth time this year, hitting its lowest level since January of 2017. The order backlogs index also receded to a level last seen lower in April, when it slipped below the neutral mark for the first time in 13 months.

On the other hand, the output index increased marginally and the employment indicator rose for the first time since July.

MNI Indicators also said the supplier deliveries index reached its highest level in over fourteen years, with some firms attributing the increasing wait times to under-staffed suppliers.

The prices paid index remained locked in a historically elevated range, as some firms saw higher unit prices on invoices for the first time, on the back of further import tariffs levied on China, while others expect shortages to push prices higher over the coming months.


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Poland Inflation Slows For Second Month

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Poland's consumer price inflation slowed for a second straight month in October and at a faster than expected pace, flash data from Statistics Poland showed on Wednesday.

The consumer price index rose 1.7 percent year-on-year following a 1.9 percent increase in September. Economists had expected inflation to ease to 1.8 percent.

Headline inflation has been much away from the central bank's target of 2.5 percent since the start of the year.

On a month-on-month basis, the CPI climbed 0.4 percent in October after a 0.2 percent rise in September. Economists were looking for a 0.4 percent gain.


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Turkey September Trade Gap Narrows Sharply

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Turkey's merchandise trade deficit for September narrowed sharply from a year ago amid a surge in exports and a plunge in imports, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Wednesday.

The visible trade deficit fell to $1.869 billion from $8.168 billion in the same month of 2017.

Exports surged 22.4 percent year-on-year, while imports dropped 18.3 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, exports grew a seasonally and calendar-adjusted 1.3 percent and imports decreased 3.9 percent.

After calendar adjustments, exports increased 16.3 percent year-on-year, while imports tumbled 22.8 percent.


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Austria Economic Growth Slows Third Time

Trading 31 oct 2018 Commentaire »

Austria's economic growth slowed for a third straight quarter during the three months to September, flash figures from the Austrian Institute of Economic Research, or WIFO, showed on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product grew 0.5 percent from the second quarter, when the economy grew 0.6 percent. First quarter growth was 0.8 percent.

Domestic demand and foreign trade continued to make positive contributions to growth, the WIFO said.

On an unadjusted basis, the economy expanded 2.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter.

Based on the Eurostat standard, the GDP grew a seasonally and working-day adjusted 0.4 percent in the third quarter, which was slightly faster than the 0.2 percent expansion in the euro area.


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