Three-Year Note Auction Attracts Below Average Demand

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Kicking off this week's series of long-term securities auctions, the Treasury Department sold $34 billion worth of three-year notes on Tuesday, attracting below average demand.

The three-year note auction drew a high yield of 2.765 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65.

Last month, the Treasury sold $33 billion worth of three-year notes, drawing a high yield of 2.685 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.51.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.

The ten previous three-year note auctions had an average bid-to-cover ratio of 2.87.

Looking ahead, the Treasury is due to sell $26 billion worth of ten-year notes on Wednesday and $18 billion worth of thirty-year bonds on Thursday.


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*U.S. Job Openings Inch Up To 6.66 Million In June

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

U.S. Job Openings Inch Up To 6.66 Million In June


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Sweden's Budget Surplus Exceeds Estimate In July

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Sweden's budget surplus exceeded estimate in July, the National Debt Office reported Tuesday.

Central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 15.7 billion in July, which was above the estimate of SEK 13.3 billion.

The central government's primary balance was SEK 4.7 billion higher than forecast. Tax income was approximately SEK 1 billion higher than calculated.

The Debt Office's net lending to government agencies etc. was SEK 2.4 billion higher than calculated due to lower deposits from the Swedish Pension Agency among others.

For the twelve-month period up to the end of July, central government payments resulted in a surplus of SEK 109.6 billion.


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German Exports Remain Unchanged; Industrial Output Falls

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Germany's exports remained flat amid trade wars and industrial production declined more-than-expected in June, official data showed Tuesday.

Exports registered nil growth in June from May after rising 1.7 percent, Destatis reported. Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent drop.

On the other hand, monthly growth in imports accelerated to 1.2 percent from 0.7 percent in May. This was much faster than the expected 0.2 percent rise.

As a result, the trade surplus fell to a seasonally adjusted EUR 19.3 billion from EUR 20.4 billion in May.

Year-on-year, exports grew 7.8 percent, in contrast to a 1.3 percent fall in May. At the same time, imports rose at a faster pace of 10.2 percent after increasing 0.9 percent.

Exports totaled EUR 115.5 billion, while imports were valued at EUR 93.7 billion, the highest since records began in 1950. Consequently, the unadjusted trade surplus decreased to EUR 21.8 billion in June from EUR 22.1 billion in June 2017.

The current account surplus increased to EUR 26.2 billion in June from EUR 22.4 billion in the same period of last year.

Another report from Destatis revealed that industrial production decreased 0.9 percent month-on-month in June, reversing a revised 2.4 percent rise in May. Output was forecast to fall 0.5 percent.

Excluding energy and construction, industrial output decreased 0.8 percent in June.

Year-on-year, industrial output advanced 2.5 percent, which was weaker than the 3 percent increase seen in the previous month.

The economy ministry said despite weak orders, the upturn in the manufacturing sector should continue at a moderate pace. The ministry added that business climate is still clearly in the positive territory despite a slowdown.

With the domestic economy in good shape and given the recent ceasefire in the tariff war, Jennifer McKeown, an economist at Capital Economics, said she expects only a modest slowdown in German growth.

The euro area economy expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter. Destatis is set to issue GDP data for the largest euro area economy on August 14.


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Austria Trade Deficit Widens In May

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Austria's foreign trade deficit increased in May from a year ago on weaker exports, preliminary figures from Statistics Austria showed Tuesday.

The trade deficit rose to EUR 0.71 billion in May from EUR 0.27 billion in the corresponding month last year.

Exports fell 2.2 percent year-over-year in May, while imports climbed by 1.2 percent.

During the January to May period, total trade deficit of the country narrowed to EUR 1.99 billion from EUR 2.36 billion in the same period of 2017.

Another report from the statistical office showed that wholesale price inflation eased to 5.9 percent in July from 6.3 percent in June.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices remained flat in July after a 0.2 percent increase in the prior month.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for August 7, 2018

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.

This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.

On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.

Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the depicted supply zone) where another episode of bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1520.

On the other hand, recent signs of bullish rejection were expressed around the lower limit of the mentioned consolidation range (1.1520).

That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped within the consolidation range of 1.1750-1.1520 until breakout occurs in either direction.

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Daily Technical Analysis Video, 7th August 2018

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Daily Technical Analysis Video, 7th August 2018

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Sweden Industrial Production Growth Improves Further

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

Sweden's industrial production growth accelerated for the second straight month in June, figures from Statistics Sweden showed Tuesday.

Industrial production advanced 5.7 percent year-over-year in June, faster than the 4.7 percent rise in May.

On a monthly basis, industrial production rose 1.2 percent from May, when it increased by 2.9 percent.

Another report from the statistical office revealed that orders for industry fell 3.5 percent yearly in June, reversing a 2.2 percent rise in May.

Month-on-month, orders declined 5.8 percent in June after falling 1.4 percent in the preceding month.


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GBP/USD analysis for August 07, 2018

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2956. According to the M15 time frame, I found that price is trading inside of the upward channel, which is a sign that buyers are in control. Watch for potential buying opportunities if you see a breakout of the resistance trendline. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2994.

Resistance levels:

R1: 1.2996

R2: 1.3051

R3: 1.3089

Support levels:

S1: 1.2903

S2: 1.2865

S3: 1.2810

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Bitcoin analysis for August 07, 2018

Trading 07 août 2018 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

According to the 15M time frame, I found that price found resistance at the pivot resistance 1 ($7,067), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a low close doji pattern and bearish cross on the stochastic oscillator, which is a sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $6,936 and at the price of $6,811.

Support/Resistance

$7,067 – Intraday resistance

$6,936– Intraday support

$6,936 – Objective target 1

$6,811 – Objective target 2

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