NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for July 4, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until the bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why the bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6800 to secure some profits.

Recently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 was being challenged by the NZD/USD bears. This price zone was considered as a target level for current sellers.

The current bearish breakdown of the price zone 0.6820-0.6780 allowed bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6680 where early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested.

The current bullish pullback towards the supply zone (0.6820-0.6780) should be watched for bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 4, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Recently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Bearish target around 1.1520 has already been reached.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Initial Bullish target levels were located around 1.1750. However, the significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1700 which led to the current bearish decline again towards the price level of 1.1600.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1700 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

A bearish breakdown below 1.1520-1.1420 might occur if enough bearish pressure is applied. This would potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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Global macro overview for 04/07/2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

A large number of investors have started to fear that the weakening of CNY and the collapse of the Shanghai stock market may be associated with a strong outflow of capital. However, the verbal monetary support from the monetary authorities, which supported the second day of the clear strengthening of the yuan and the clearly better-than-expected PMI for China's services, should somewhat allay fears. All comparisons with the situation from 2015, when traders fear the prospects of China and the stability of the local financial system are to a negligible extent justified. First of all, this is due to the fact that those turbulences were the result of errors of regulators, who first allowed for the emergence of a speculative bubble in the stock market and then fought unsuccessfully with the effects of its breakage. Now, there is no such thing, although it should be remembered that the scale of debt is a serious problem in the financial system of the Middle Kingdom. However, this is a long-term problem and a permanent element in the balance of risks, not a new element of the market puzzle that suddenly appears and causes a panic.

The first signs of calming down the sentiment go hand in hand with slowing USD appreciation. After a multi-week rally ahead of the dollar, the global investors do not see much room for strengthening, a lot of positive information is already discounted by the markets.

If concerns about the future of China are quickly dispelled, AUD and NZD can count on strong rebound. The medium and long-term perspectives of both currencies are not positive in our opinion (low-interest attractiveness and lack of prospects for a rapid rise in interest rates) and the potential rebound market will be surely used to renew the short exposure.

Let's now take a look at the USD/CNY technical picture at the daily time frame. The market has made a big pin bar candle around the level of 6.6855 where the 61% Fibo retracement of the last swing down is. It might indicate a temporary corrective cycle in progress, but for now, the price might start to consolidate between the levels of 6.6000 - 6.7180. The market conditions are overbought, but the momentum is way above ifs fifty level, confirming the strength of the up move. The nearest important support is seen at the level of 6.4372.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for July 4, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

USD/CAD is currently residing at the edge of 1.3120 support area from where it is expected to push higher with a target towards 1.34 area in the coming days. USD has been the dominant currency over CAD since the rate hike but recent CAD positive economic reports during the Trade War tension did provide some room for the bears to create certain pullbacks in the process.

USD has been quite positive with the economic reports so far this week, which did not quite help the currency to sustain the bullish momentum it had after breaking above 1.3120 with a daily close earlier. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports to be published on Friday, today there is no impactful economic reports to be published due to Independence Day holiday being observed throughout the nation. But tomorrow, just the day before NFP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k and Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 231k from the previous figure of 227k.

On the CAD side, today there is no impactful economic reports to be published and add to the CAD gains in the process but on Friday alongside the US NFP reports, CAD Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 20.3k from the previous figure of -7.5k, Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -2.2B from the previous figure of -1.9B and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%.

As of the current scenario, the pair is expected to be very volatile and corrective till this weekly candle close as high impact economic reports are expected to inject uncertainty in the pair as per Trade War situation is still present. To sum up, USD is expected to have an upper hand over CAD in the process.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently retesting the 1.3120 resistance area as support from where the price is expected to push higher with a target towards 1.3400 area in the future. The price has also formed a Bullish Continuation Divergence in the process which is expected to add further accuracy and momentum for the upcoming bullish pressure in the pair. As the price remains above 1.3120 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.analytics5b3cb39990227.png

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 4, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite impressive with the recent bullish gains but it failed to sustain the momentum, leading to certain bearish intervention in the process. In light of the recent reports, Bitcoin is still bullish despite the pullback. Such a pullback is now considered as a retracement before impulsive bullish momentum in the short term. As for the current scenario, the price is expected to push higher towards $8,000 area in the coming days as it remains above $6,000-6,500 area with a daily close. As the dynamic level of 20 EMA is holding the price as support, the bullish momentum in the coming days is more likely.

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Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for July 4, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective below 0.9980 to 1.0035 area from where it is still expected to slip lower towards 0.9850 and later towards 0.97 area. USD has been the dominating currency in the pair amid the recent rate hike by the US Fed. However, as trade jitters are increasing, USD is expected to lose some momentum in the process.

This week, Switzerland Retail Sales report was published with a significant decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 2.9% which was expected to be at 2.6% and Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight better-than-expected figure of 61.2, decreasing from 62.4 which was expected to be at 61.1. Though today Switzerland does not post macroeconomic reports, tomorrow CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4%.

On the other hand, despite lingering trade jitters, USD has been quite solid in light of upbeat economic reports, which helped the currency to sustain the bullish momentum in the pair. Ahead of US nonfarm payrolls which are due on Friday, today the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic reports from the US amid Independence Day. But tomorrow, just the day before NFP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k and Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 231k from the previous figure of 227k.

As for the current scenario, CHF has been quite mixed amid the recent economic reports whereas USD has been consistently firm which may lead to further bullish momentum in the pair. However, pending macroeconomic reports from the US have sour outlook, so USD may look quite weak ahead of the news. Besides, worse-than-expected result may lead to weakness of USD against CHF.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with certain bullish momentum. As the price remains below 0.9980 to 1.0035 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue to push the price lower with a target towards 0.9850 and later towards 0.97 area. Though the Bearish Regular Divergence cannot be spotted clearly at the moment, the current corrective phase is expected to push the price lower in the coming days.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 04, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:Recently, Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.376. According to the H1 time - frame, I found potential bearish flag in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of $6.227.

$6.510 – Intraday resistance;

$6.375 – Intraday support;

$6.227 – Objective target.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Bitcoin analysis for July 04, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

analytics5b3c94bb7d16b.png

Trading recommendations:Recently, Bitcoin has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of $6.376. According to the H1 time - frame, I found potential bearish flag in creation, which is sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the macd oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for breakout of the bearish flag to confirm further downward movement. The downward target is set at the price of $6.227.

$6.510 – Intraday resistance;

$6.375 – Intraday support;

$6.227 – Objective target.

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP/USD analysis for July 04, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, USD/CHF has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 0.9930. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potnetial buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 0.9977.

Resistance levels: R1: 0.9943R2: 0.9965 R3: 0.9980

Support levels: S1: 0.9006S2: 0.9890S3: 0.9870

Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 04, 2018

Trading 04 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1639. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag pattern in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.1585 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.1525.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.1381R2: 1.1703 R3: 1.1733

Support levels: S1: 1.1630S2: 1.1600S3: 1.1577 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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