NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for for July 3, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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The NZD/USD pair had been trapped between the price levels of 0.7170 and 0.7350 until bearish breakdown of 0.7200 occurred on April 23.

Breakdown of 0.7220-0.7170 (neckline zone) was needed to confirm the depicted reversal pattern. Bearish target levels around 0.7050 and 0.7000 have been achieved already.

The price level of 0.7050 was considered a key-level for the NZD/USD bears That's why, bearish persistence below 0.7050 allowed further bearish decline to occur towards the price levels around 0.6800.

As anticipated, the recent bullish pullback towards the price level of 0.7050 (Broken Demand-Level) offered a good opportunity for sellers to have a valid SELL entry. It's already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 0.6800 to secure some profits.

Recently, the price zone of 0.6820-0.6780 was being challenged by the NZD/USD bears. This price zone was considered as a target level for current sellers.

The current bearish breakdown of the price zone 0.6820-0.6780 allowed bearish decline towards 0.6700-0.6680 where early signs of bullish recovery are being manifested.

Any bullish pullback towards the supply zone (0.6820-0.6780) should be watched for bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. S/L should be placed above 0.6850.

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 3, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Daily Outlook

In April 2018, the short-term outlook turned to become bearish when the EUR/USD pair maintained trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.

The price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990 where a descending high was established. However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.

Instead, further bearish momentum was expressed in the market.

Recently, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered significant bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry. Bearish target around 1.1520 has already been reached.

The price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent bullish demand where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.

Initial Bullish target levels were located around 1.1750. However, the significant bearish pressure was applied around 1.1700 which led to the current bearish decline again towards the price level of 1.1600.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside a consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1700 until a breakout occurs in either direction.

A bearish breakdown below 1.1520-1.1420 might occur if enough bearish pressure is applied. This would potentially enhance further bearish decline towards 1.1270 (recent consolidation range and demand level).

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BITCOIN Analysis for July 3, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains recently which surprising led the price to reside above $6,500 area with a daily close. After a decline below $6,500 with a daily close, the bearish momentum has been quite strong which sparked off anxiety among market participants. However, yesterday's sudden bullish momentum confused the sentiment. This month of July is expected to be the bullish momentum month for Bitcoin and other crypto currencies which may encoureage further gains in the coming days. As more big names like Goldman Sachs is showing interest in Bitcoin trading, bulls are likely to enter the market in the short run. As for the current scenario, the price is holding above $6,500. Moreover, the price is expected to jump towards the Kumo Cloud at $7,000-7,500 area before showing any bearish intervention in the process.

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Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 3, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

EUR/JPY has been quite corrective and volatile at the edge of 129.50 area recently. The price is currently expected to fall lower with a target towards 125.00 area in the coming days. Though JPY was getting weaker due to sluggish inflation this year, EUR is also domed to struggle for gains as well.

EUR has been quite positive amid recent economic reports, including unchanged Unemployment Rate at 8.4% and a slight decrease in Manufacturing PMI. Today, French Government Budget Balance report was published with an increase of deficit to -55.1B from the previous deficit of -54.3B, Spanish Unemployment Change failed to meet the expectation of -101.0k as it showed -90.0k, increasing slightly from -83.7k, PPI report was published with an increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at 0.4%, and Retail Sales showed a slight increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.1% which was expected to be at 0.1%.

On the other hand, Japan's Average Cash Earning report which is due on Friday which is expected to increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.6%. Today, JPY Monetary Base report was published with a decrease to 7.4% from the previous value of 8.1% which was expected to increase to 8.3%.

As for the current scenario, despite the worse economic report from Japan today it managed to gain certain momentum over EUR whereas EUR has been mixed with the reports published today. As the trade war tensions are going on, EUR is expected to lose momentum over JPY in the process. The market is likely to be volatile and corrective in the coming days whereas JPY is expected to have an upper hand.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite indecisive with the recent daily candle below 129.50 area. The price is expected to sink lower towards 125.00 area. Apart from the recent rejection off the level, the price has also formed a Bearish Divergence in the process which is expected to contribute to the upcoming bearish momentum. As the price remains below 129.50 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.

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USD/CAD analysis for July 03, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, USD/CAD has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.3142. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag pattern, which is a sign that sellers are in control. I also found a strong downward trend in the background and my advice is to watch for potential selling opprtunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3060.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.3226R2: 1.3263 R3: 1.3300

Support levels: S1: 1.3150S2: 1.3111S3: 1.3075 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.

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EUR/USD analysis for July 03, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Recently, EUR/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.1672. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found a rising trendline, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.1720 and at the price of 1.1840.

Resistance levels: R1: 1.1683R2: 1.1724 R3: 1.1770

Support levels: S1: 1.1596 S2: 1.1550 S3: 1.1510 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.

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Markets wait for new landmarks

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

Eurozone

Eurozone cannot stay away from the prospect of growing protectionism, which threatens to turn into a full-fledged trade war. The ECB meeting on June 14 considered this factor as the main risk for global growth.

The EU summit allowed reaching an agreement on immigration, but it became clear the following day that the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the leader of the CSU party, Horst Seehofer, considered the results of the summit insufficient, while the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland refused to recognize its results de facto at all.

The ruling coalition of Germany faces the threat of its disintegration, which would mean early elections and Merkel's departure from the political Olympus. This is a factor of strong instability for the euro, which can exert pressure on him. Indicators of confidence in the euro area are declining and the German indicator Ifo in the area of two-year lows.

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Published on Friday, Eurostat's report on inflation in June showed no deviations from expectations. Markit confirmed a slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector.

Currently, the euro has no objective reasons for the resumption of growth. Financial markets are closed during the US Independence Day on Wednesday. Hence, trading is likely to take place in a narrow range. On July 6, the "moment of truth" is expected on the trade restrictions of the US and China, which can significantly change the balance between the demand for risky and protective assets on a global scale. Also, the report on the US labor market will be released and we should expect a weak activity before this time.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair will be traded in the range of 1.1600 / 1680, further dynamics will depend on data from the US. Strong data will open the way to 1.12. The weakened currency will allow overcoming the resistance 1.1680 and give a chance to resume corrective growth.

United Kingdom

Macroeconomic data from the UK comes out mixed and does not give a clear picture of the pound's prospects. The adjusted GDP growth in the first quarter was only 1.2%, where there is a negative flow was recorded for commercial investments. In May consumer credit growth slowed down, consumer confidence index from Gfk decreased to -9 in June. There is no positive trend.

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At the same time, there has been an increase in activity in the services sector and a decrease in the balance of payments deficit. There is an unexpected increase in PMI of the manufacturing sector to 54.4p in June, while a slight decline was projected. Markit's reports are of interest from the perspective of growth rates in August. the Bank of England should see positive dynamics in the economy in order to have a reason to raise the rate. Accordingly, the publication of Markit report on business activity in the services sector in June was able to support the pound in case of exceeding forecasts.

According to Brexit, there is no dynamic; the EU summit signaled to the British government that if it does not submit its proposals on a number of issues within the agreed timeframes, the exit may be formalized without a trade agreement and without a transition period.

The GBP.USD pair will continue trading in the range of 1.3100 / 80 in anticipation of new introductions. There is a slight possibility for the decline to resume by the end of the week.

Oil

As oil continues to grow, Brent is near $ 80 / bbl. and intends to make another attempt to go higher. The WTI reached a multi-year high of 74.81 dollars per barrel. Growth is facilitated by a number of factors such as problems with exports from Libya as it came out lower than predicted, oil reserves in the US, as well as an attempt to block all exports from Iran within the framework of the unspoken program "our weapons are unfair competition". The growth in production of OPEC + member countries, agreed last week, the market may regard as insufficient.

Going above 80 hinder the demand for the dollar and fears of a geopolitical nature on the eve of the start of the trade war between the US and China. By the end of the week, nevertheless, we expect Brent to grow above this level. For WTI, the goal is to gain a foothold above $ 75 / bbl.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

In June, the UK Construction PMI index rose to 53.1, beating the median forecast of 52.5 and the reading from May (52.5 points). The construction production is at a 7-month high and new orders grew at the fastest pace since May 2017.

The Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the level of activity among purchasing managers in the construction sector of the economy. Any reading above 50 signals industry expansion; below 50 indicates a contraction. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The pound enjoys the market sentiment that appeared at the start of trade in Europe. GBP/USD approaches 1.32 slowly, reversing yesterday's drop and in the last minutes, an upside-down reading of the PMI index for the construction sector has become an additional impulse. The nearest technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3191 - 1.3217 zones and there should be a pretty good reaction from the bear camp. If the bulls will break higher, their next target is seen at the level of 1.3292.

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Global macro overview for 03/07/2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

The Swedish Riksbank maintained the main interest rate unchanged at -0.50% in line with expectations. A surprise for the pessimistic market was that the bank maintained its position that it would start raising interest rates "at the end of the year". The market assumed that after the dovish position of the ECB from June and postponed the date of the increase, the Riksbank would follow in its footsteps. In addition, Floden joined the board member of Ohlsson in his objection to the decision to allow intervention on the currency market.

In conclusion, global investors might feel disappointed as the Riksbank did not give a clue regarding the next possible interest rate hike like the ECB did. Nevertheless, it is still very unlikely for Riksbank to hike before the ECB will hike first. There must be a clear sign from the ECB regarding the next monetary policy move until then all the possibilities regarding the hike are pure speculation.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/SEK technical picture at the H4 time frame after the decision was made. EUR/SEK drops from 10.42 to 10.31, probably under pressure from massively closed short positions in the crown. The level of 38% Fibo retracement has been broken and now the price is likely to drop towards the next retracement at the level of 10.28. Overbought market conditions and weak momentum support the temporary bearish outlook.

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Bitcoin analysis for July 03, 2018

Trading 03 juil 2018 Commentaire »

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Trading recommendations:

Recently, Bitocin has been trading upwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of $6.624 and met my first objective target. Anyway, according to the H1 time - frame, I found an intraday bullish flag in creation, which is a sign that buying may resume. My advice is to watch for a breakout of the bullish flag to confirm further upward continuation. The upward target is set at the price of $6.956.

$6.624 – Intraday resistance; $6.538 – Intraday support; $6.956 – Objective target

With InstaForex, you can earn on cryptocurrency's movements right now. Just open a deal in your MetaTrader4. *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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