Stock Market Today: Wall Street Ekes Out Gains Ahead Of Singapore Summit

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »
NEW YORK - All three major U.S. stock indexes closed slightly higher on Monday as investors eyed the looming United States-North Korea summit on Tuesday in Singapore while shrugging off the weekend’s factious meeting of the Group of Seven nations. President Donald Trump announced the United States’ withdrawal from the G7’s joint communique following a series of bellicose tweets aimed at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after the Canadian leader announced retaliatory tariffs on goods imported from its ally to the south.

Burning forecast 06/11/2018

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

Burning forecast 06/11/2018

EURUSD: The growth continues.

At the opening of the week, the euro moved to last week's highs around 1.1840.

The reason was the positive news from Italy: the new Minister of Finance (from the populists who won the election) gave assurances that the new Italian government does not intend to go out and leave the euro, and will do everything necessary to stay in euros.

The G-7 summit in Canada is a complete failure. Of course, because of the new import duties on steel and aluminum, introduced by President Donald Trump.

However, this did not cause the euro to fall.

Ahead are the two main events of the week - the Fed and the ECB (June 13 and 14). The market is betting on the ECB's statements about a big turn to tightening monetary policy.

Buy the euro from 1.1745, stop 1.1700, target 1.1945.

Alternative: Sell from 1.1650.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound slipped at start

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The British pound started an important week for itself on a minor note. The worst dynamics of industrial production in the last 5.5 years, the longest decline in the construction sector since 2013, the reduction in exports and the disappointing foreign trade statistics associated with it have lowered the GBP/USD quotations to the weekly lows. The chances of a November increase in the REPO rate dropped from 90% to 87%, and Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that it is senseless to blame bad weather, and expects further problems in the industrial sector.

However, the insignificant reaction of the futures market to the macroeconomic statistics, which has seen the light of day, proves that the most important thing is yet to come. Sterling has to pass a test release of data on the labor market (June 12), inflation (June 13) and retail sales (June 14). On June 12, a vote will take place in Parliament on the changes in the legislation on Brexit. If the amendments manage to pass, it will be regarded as a mild scenario and will support the bulls for GBP/USD. On the contrary, a negative result will increase the risks of resignation of Theresa May from the post of prime minister. In any case, the growth of the pound's volatility on the eve of an important event indicates a return of political risks, which is a "bearish" factor for the sterling.

Dynamics of pound volatility

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In my opinion, the key indicators, which should be closely monitored by investors, are inflation and average wages. The first because of the 52% rally of oil in the last 12 months, according to the median forecast of Bloomberg experts, risks to accelerate the indicator from 2.4% to 2.5% y/y. It will accelerate more-the probability of the November increase in the REPO rate will increase, and the "bulls" on GBP/USD will go into a counterattack. The fact is that consumer prices have recently been growing in many countries of the world due to oil, including the eurozone and Japan that do not shine before. I do not think that the UK will become a black sheep.

With regard to average wages, their acceleration from the current 2.9% (without premiums) and 2.6% (taking into account premiums) will increase the purchasing power of the population and will contribute to the recovery of GDP in the second to third quarters. In an environment where unemployment has been hovering near the lowest levels over the past few decades, inflation is reversing from a 2% target and is rising, and the economy is recovering, the Bank of England has no other options how to raise the repo rate. Another thing is that there are two monetary units in any currency pair, and improving the FOMC's forecasts for the federal funds rate and inflation at the end of the June meeting of the regulator can restore investors' interest to the US dollar.

Technically, after reaching a correction level of 23.6% of the wave of the 5-0 pattern, the "bears" in the GBP/USD went counter-attack and are trying to restore the downward short-term trend. A necessary condition is the renewal of the May lows. On the contrary, a confident assault on the resistance at 1.347 will increase the risk of retracement to 38.2% and 50%.

GBP/USD, daily chart

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Pit Bull Helps Rescue Baby And Family From Building Fire In California

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »
A puppy in California is responsible for helping a family with a baby escape a deadly blaze earlier this month when it alerted its owner that the apartment was on fire. Sasha, an 8-month-old pitbull, whimpered and pounded at the back door of a fourplex in Stockton, California, as flames surrounded the building on June 3.  When the dog's owner, Nana Chaichanhda, responded to her pet's cries, she noticed that a section of the family’s building was on fire. 

Trading plan for the US session on June 11 for the GBP/USD

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Buyers of the pound need to return to support level 1.3368. Only after that can you count on the repeated wave of GBP/USD rise with the exit to the middle of the channel 1.3399, and then on the daily highs in the area of 1.3437, where it is recommended recording the profit. In the event of a further decline in the pound, one can return to buying on a false breakout from 1.3333 or on a rebound from 1.3302.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

While the trade is below 1.3368, the pressure on the pound will remain, which could lead to the renewal of the new low around 1.3333, and then to a larger support level of 1.3302, where it is recommended recording profits. In the case of growth above 1.3368 in the afternoon, selling GBP/USD can be resumed on a rebound from 1.3399.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on June 11 for the EUR/USD

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

In the first half of the day, buyers were unable to catch hold of resistance at 1.1819. For the second half of the day, the task is to keep the level of support 1.1768 and create a false breakdown on it, which will lead to EUR/USD returning to the area of daily highs, and then to the exit to resistance 1.1869. In the case of a decline under the level of 1.1768, long positions in the euro can be expected to rebound from 1.1730.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

While the trade is below 1.1819, the pressure on the euro will continue. The break and consolidation below 1.1768 will lead to a further decrease in the euro to the area of the lower border of the side channel 1.1730, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of an upward correction in the afternoon, sales can be made on a false breakout from 1.1819 and on a rebound from 1.1869.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The gloomy outcome of the G7 remained in the shadow of the upcoming events

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The G-7 summit became the quintessence of the complex relationship between the White House and the main trade partners of the United States. The face-to-face dialogue did not lead to any detente- on the contrary, the financial world was once again convinced that trade wars would only gain momentum as long as Donald Trump occupied the Oval Office. The US president made it clear that he would not make any concessions or compromises, even allowing him to leave the G7. After leaving the summit ahead of schedule, Trump did not sign and subsequently did not support the final communique, confirming a separate position on key issues under discussion.

This behavior of the American leader says a lot. First of all, the fate of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is "in the risk zone", as Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau exchanged in harsh statements about each other against each other. One of the White House advisers said that the United States have not yet withdrawn from the agreement, but "the fate of the talks remains unclear." Negotiations have lasted 10 months, so the probability of breaking the deal is now very high. Also, Americans can introduce a tariff for imported cars and spare parts (the main blow will be on Germany), as well as Chinese goods, which relate to the implementation of the program "China 2025".

Thus, Donald Trump can open "three fronts" of the trade war - against Canada, the EU and China. Such prospects may lead to a slowdown in the global economy, so the negative impact of such steps will be felt not only by the US dollar, but also by many other currencies. The fact is that the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and many other central banks of the world's leading countries have repeatedly spoken about the negative consequences of the global trade war in the context of further decisions regarding the prospects for monetary policy. And if the European Central Bank is unlikely to refuse to wind down the stimulus program this year, the Fed may limit itself to only three rounds of rate hike. This scenario is already largely taken into account in current prices, so the indecisiveness of members of the US regulator will exert some pressure on the dollar.

Despite such dismal results of the G7 summit, the US currency is actually ignoring them. The fact is that this week has concentrated many events of a fundamental nature that can cause strong volatility in the foreign exchange market. Traders are slow to make "absentee" conclusions, because on Wednesday the head of the Federal Reserve can personally comment on the results of G7 in the light of possible actions of the regulator. The Fed's June meeting is not a "pass-through" - the marketplaces great hopes on it for further guidance. For the first time since March, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the meeting, where one of the topics for discussion will certainly be the US foreign trade policy in the context of influencing the Fed's resolve.

In addition, tomorrow will be published key data on the growth of inflation in the US. The overall forecast is generally good: an increase of 0.2% in monthly terms and + 2.7% in annual terms. The core consumer price index may also show a small increase (0.1% m / m and 2.2% y / y). As we see, inflation should demonstrate a weak, but still positive dynamics. It should be noted that the level of average hourly wages also came in the "green zone" - 0.3%. Therefore, there is a high probability that inflation will be at the forecast level or even slightly exceed the expectations of experts.

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However, in this case, the market will probably be careful to buy or sell the dollar. Let me remind you that the text of the published minutes of the last meeting of the Fed "cooled the ardor" of dollar bulls: the regulator's members said that exceeding the inflation target level is not a reason for accelerating rates of rate hikes. Therefore, even with the strong growth of May inflation in the US, buying dollars should be treated with caution.

The market also focused on the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, which is to be held tomorrow, June 12. This event without exaggeration can be called historical. But, given the wayward character of the participants in the meeting, no one makes hasty conclusions - and this fact also indirectly affects the behavior of traders.

Thus, the key events of this week have eclipsed the results of G7-2018. They will remind themselves of themselves when Trump will start realizing his intentions both about NAFTA, and about "China 2025", and about the EU. But it will be after the historic meeting in Singapore, where trump wants to gain fame as the "world peace dove."

In the context of the foreign exchange market, the situation is aggravated by the fed's June meeting. Depending on how Jerome Powell will place the emphasis, the fate of the dollar in the medium term will depend.analytics5b1e6f77c286c.jpg

The technical side of the euro/dollar pair fully reflects the uncertainty of the fundamental background. The price is located between the middle and top lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, however under the Kumo cloud and above the Kijun-sen line. Lack of clear signals suggests that it is necessary to wait and monitor the news background for the pair.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The pound still has a chance to grow

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The British pound fell sharply against the US dollar after the release of statistics indicating a serious rate of decline in industrial production in the UK, which could significantly weaken the economy and affect its potential growth in the future, as well as the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates soon.

Despite the sharp drop in the pound, the downward trend is still limited. The focus of traders and investors is more focused on the decision of the Parliament tomorrow, which will vote for amendments to the law on the exit of the UK from the EU.

According to some experts on Brexit, the UK government does not have enough resources to make key decisions and make changes, and therefore it is possible to exclude a tougher exit scenario from the EU, which many buyers of the British pound fear. If major amendments are not adopted tomorrow, the British pound may resume its upward trend against the us dollar.

As I noted above, the rate of decline in industrial production in the UK increased in April. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the volume of industrial production in the UK in April 2018 decreased by 0.8% compared with March.

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If before a number of experts referred more to the bad weather that could affect the growth rate of the UK economy earlier this year, now it is clear that there are much more fundamental reasons. This is likely to affect the next increase in interest rates by the Bank of England this year.

The report also noted that the weakness of production was observed immediately in all sectors. The sectors of the automotive industry and the production of electrical equipment have suffered particularly.

As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, a lot will depend on the breakthrough of the large resistance range 1.3440-1.3475. If tomorrow's Brexit decision positively affects the pound's quotes, going beyond the above range will allow large buyers of GBPUSD to build a new upward trend, with a test of areas such as 1.3530, 1.3600 and 1.3650.

If the pressure on the pound continues, it is likely that new buyers will show interest in the pound only at the lows of 1.3300 and 1.3255.

The European currency continues to hold its positions against the US dollar, even despite the absence of fundamental statistics and the complication of trade relations between the US and the European Union.

The main focus of traders is focused on the meeting of the European Central Bank, whose decision will be published this Thursday. It is expected that the ECB leaders will clearly announce plans to reduce the asset repurchase program, but it is unlikely that they will name specific terms.

According to the forecasts of the leading expert agencies, it is expected that in July this year the ECB will reduce the program from the current volume of 30 billion euros to 20 billion euros, and in October to 10 billion euros. The completion of the program will be announced in December this year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Amazon Prime Savings Come To Whole Foods Stores In 10 More States

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »
Amazon’s invasion of Whole Foods Market will continue unabated this week. The online retail giant announced Monday that its new program allowing Amazon Prime subscribers to get exclusive discounts at the organic-centered grocery chain will expand to 10 more states by the end of the week.

E3 2018: Ticket Prices And How To Watch At Home

Trading 11 juin 2018 Commentaire »
The gaming world has coalesced in Los Angeles this week for the Electronic Entertainment Expo (E3). The annual trade show usually features a bevy of press conferences from major publishers like Sony and Nintendo, as well as a few days of show floor time for attendees to play upcoming games.