Trading plan for the US session on June 5 for the GBP/USD

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Buyers made it to the morning resistance at 1.3390 and managed to form support in the area of 1.3348. As long as the trade is above this level, demand for the pound will continue, and a repeat test of 1.3387 will lead to new local highs in the area of 1.3436 and 1.3476, where it is recommended recording profits.

To open short positions on GBP/USD it is required:

Only a return to support level 1.3348 on its repeated test will lead to the formation of a larger downward trend in the pound, with the main target of updating the daily lows around 1.3302, where it is recommended recording profits. With growth above 1.3387, selling the GBP/USD pair is best on a rebound from 1.3436.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Trading plan for the US session on June 5 for the EUR/USD

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EURUSD it is required:

Return to the purchase of the euro is best after a breakthrough and consolidation at the level of resistance 1.1685, which will lead to a repeated test of the high of the day in the area of 1.1713, where it is recommended recording profits. In case of further decline, a false breakout in the area of 1.1649, will be the first signal to the beginning of the long positions, or already support the test of 1.1620, with buying immediately on the rebound.

To open short positions on EURUSD it is required:

As long as the trade is below resistance level 1.1685, the pressure on the euro will continue, which may lead to a further decline in the support area 1.1649 and 1.1620, where it is recommend fixing profits. In case of EUR / USD growth in the second half of the day, short positions can be seen from the highs around 1.1713.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA
  • Bollinger Bands 20
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Burning forecast 06/05/2018

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

Burning forecast 06/05/2018

EURUSD: Trade out of the range.

The main event for the markets remains trade tension along the lines of the US - Europe, the US - China - as U.S. President Donald Trump seems to be determined to introduce new tariffs for imports into the US, despite the resistance of the major partners.

Everything will be decided at the summit of the heads of the G-7 countries on Friday, June 8.

EURUSD formed consolidation, and it is possible to exit up and down.

Buy from 1.1745, stop at 1.1700, the profit is 1.1845.

Sell from 1.1615, stop at 1.1660, the profit is 1.1515.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The growth of the UK economy resumed

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

Weak data on the euro area in the first half of the day hurt the European currency, which again failed to gain the right move to get beyond the large resistance levels paired with the US dollar, which were formed yesterday.

The report on the budget deficit of France partially supported the euro only.

According to the data, the budget deficit of France for the first four months of this year decreased compared to the same period in 2017.

Thus, the budget deficit amounted to 54.3 billion euros at the end of April this year against 57.9 billion euros at the end of April 2017. As noted in the report of the Ministry of Finance, the deficit was reduced as a result of a sharp decrease in costs, as well as the recapitalization of energy companies. It should be noted that tax revenues have also decreased.

As I noted above, retail sales in the euro area were the main reason for the decline in the European currency in the first half of the day.

According to the data, in April of this year, retail sales in the euro area grew by only 0.1% compared to March, where data were revised up to a growth of 0.4%. Compared to the same period in 2017, retail sales grew by 1.7% against growth by 1.5% in 2017. A weak sales report is likely to affect the eurozone's GDP in the second quarter of this year, which will have a negative impact on the European currency in the medium term.

Today, for the first time, a new Italian Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, delivered a speech before the senate, who said that the main economic indicators will be achieved not through a strict economy, but through economic growth, which will also reduce public debt.

Conte also said that Italy will introduce a minimum hourly wage and universal basic income. He also noted that the taxation system will be simplified and become fairer.

As for the technical picture, it did not change much in comparison with the morning forecast. The pressure on the euro is maintained, which gradually returns the trading instrument to important levels of support in the area of 1.1620.

The British pound grew strongly against the US dollar after a report that showed that activity in the UK services sector grew in May this year, giving a good boost to economic growth after weakening at the beginning of the year.analytics5b16971b3cd23.png

According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers for the service sector in May rose to 54.0 points from 52.8 points in April. Let me remind you that the index values above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Brent is on the sidelines of Washington

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

Rumors about the expansion of oil production by Saudi Arabia and Russia led to the development of correction of the North Sea grade to a monthly minimum. Bloomberg, referring to competent sources, circulated information that Washington asked OPEC to increase its production of black gold by at least 1 million b / s, as retail gasoline prices in the US rose to a maximum of three years. Earlier, Donald Trump accused the cartel of artificially inflating the value of Brent and WTI, and in June, the States moved from the accusations to requests.

Since early 2017, OPEC and 10 other oil-producing countries, including Russia, have cut production by 1.8 million b / s, which has helped to balance the market and led to a reduction in global stocks and a price increase to the maximum since autumn 2014. Currently, the cartel pumping 31.9 million b / s, which is the minimum indicator for the year. If Saudi Arabia and Russia decide to increase production at the summit in Vienna on June 22-23, other countries can follow their example with the goal of preserving their market share. In addition, if Washington's request to Riyadh did indeed take place, this will exacerbate the already strained relations of the Saudis with Iran.

Theoretically, the risks that producers around the world will flood the market with cheap oil are a strong argument in favor of the development of correction of Brent and WTI. In fact, there is a process of closing record-breaking net-longs for the main grades of black gold due to the implementation of the principle "buy on the rumor, sell on facts". Talks about the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran tossed futures quotes to the 3.5-year highs, and as soon as this event happened, hedge funds began to gradually record profits on long positions. They do this already for 6 consecutive weeks, which is the longest period for this development cycle of the commodity market. By the end of the five-day period by May 29, net lows for Brent fell 9.9% to 451,996 contracts, the lowest level since September 2017.

Dynamics of speculative positions and oil prices

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It is curious that the spread between the North Sea and Texas oil reached $ 11 per barrel, the highest since 2015 amid US production growth to 10.47 million b / s, an increase in the number of drilling rigs to 861 and the limited capacity of American pipelines.

In general, despite the correction, the conjuncture of the black gold market remains bullish. Global demand is strong, world stocks are returning to the levels of 5-year averages, and Saudi Arabia and Russia's intention to increase production is associated with its reduction by Venezuela and Iran.

Technically on the daily chart, Brent continues the implementation of the pattern "Splash and reversal with acceleration." The break in the trend line of the acceleration stage does not yet indicate a change in trend. The proximity of the target of 127.2% on the "Perfect Butterfly" pattern to the lower border of the ascending long-term trade channel indicates the limited potential of the correctional movement.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

The daily review of GBP / USD on June 5, 2018. Ichimoku Indicator

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

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GBP / USD

The month of May had a bearish character. At the moment, after the end of the week cloud (Senkou Span A 1.3208), the pair is trying to take over the daily short-term advantage. The transformation of the daily Tenkan (1.3312) in support will allow to consider the development of an upward correction. At H4, the main upward direction will be the target for the breakdown of the cloud. The fulfillment of the goal will be able to bring a pair to the nearest landmarks of the high seasons (area 1.35 month and day Kijun). Return to the bear zone against the clouds of the lower halves and the preservation of the daily short-term trend on the side of the bears can lead to a return to the 1.32 area, with the goal of securing in the weekly cloud.

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Indicator parameters:

All time intervals 9 - 26 - 52

The color of indicator lines:

Tenkan (short-term trend) - red,

Kijun (medium-term trend) - green,

Fibo Kijun is a green dotted line,

Chinkou is gray,

Clouds: Senkou Span B (SSB, long-term trend) - blue,

Senkou Span A (SSA) - pink.

The color of additional lines:

Support and resistance MN - blue, W1 - green, D1 - red, H4 - pink, H1 - gray,

Horizontal levels (not Ichimoku) - brown,

Trend lines - purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

June 12 is an important day for the pound

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The pound paired in the dollar, after reaching the annual minimum (1.3203), is trying to restore its positions. However, it is not possible to return to the framework of the northern trend. The pair is forced to trade in the flat, reacting mainly to the behavior of the US currency, which in turn reacts to the external fundamental background. The economic calendar for this week is almost empty, so the pair is more likely to drift in the range of 1.3250-1.3485 until the end of the five-day trading period. But the next week promises to be interesting.

Next week, data on the growth of US inflation and the results of the June meeting of the Fed will be published. In addition, we learn about the data on the labor market in Britain and British inflation. Indirectly, the dynamics of the pair will be affected by the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, where the fate of the stimulating program will be decided.

Despite such a concentration of the most important events of a fundamental nature, for the pound, the most important day of the next week will be June 12. On this day, British parliamentarians will discuss key amendments to the Brexit bill. Legislators will have to accept or reject a dozen amendments, which will determine the strategy of the "divorce proceedings" with the European Union.

As you know, the issue of Brexit is an absolute priority for the British currency. Any positive macroeconomic statistics can easily be crossed out by the pessimistic prospects of 2019. One can recall several situations where the pound was actively losing its positions throughout the market, despite the growth of key economic indicators. One reason was the increased probability of "hard" Brexit. There were also mirror situations, when the pound rose in price amid the recession of the economy due to the diplomatic successes of London and Brussels.

That is why the key macroeconomic indicators of Britain, which will be published next week, will play an important but secondary role. They will enhance or weaken the effect of the main event of a fundamental nature. The fact is that the above-mentioned 15 amendments will determine the long-term strategy of the country's exit from the EU. Their general essence is reduced to "curbing" the government of Theresa May in the issue of Brexit, minimizing the possibility of making independent decisions.

For example, the British Cabinet wants to abolish the norm, which allows the parliament to make decisions about the fate of Brexit in the event that London and Brussels do not conclude a mutually beneficial deal. Another amendment will not allow the British government to adopt bylaws that will essentially change the European legal norms. This can only be done with the consent of parliamentarians. Another important point (especially in the context of the foreign exchange market) is the preservation of close economic ties with the European Union. This amendment also runs counter to the policy of Theresa May, which advocates the country's exit from the customs union. The British Parliament can consent to the extension of the Kingdom's membership within the common market of the EU.

Thus, if the Lower House of the British Parliament takes a pro-European stance, the pound will receive a powerful impetus for its growth. Let me remind you that the spring weakening of the British currency in tandem with the dollar was due not only to the strength of the Greenback, but in many respects to the uncertainty with Brexit. Optimism in this matter will play a key role for the recovery of the currency.

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It is also worth recalling that the macroeconomic indicators of Britain demonstrate growth again. Literally today, the pound jumped to 1.3380 after the release of data on PMI in the service sector. The indicator demonstrates positive dynamics for the second month in a row and today, it came out better than expected, reaching 54 points. The PMI index in the manufacturing sector also exceeded the forecast values, confirming the economic recovery. Labor market and inflation showed less impressive, but at the same time, a good result. The unemployment remained at a record low level of 4.2%, and the consumer price index in the monthly reached 0.4% after a decline to 0.1%. If these indicators again show growth next week, this will be an additional reason for the recovery of the pound / dollar pair. But only on one condition, if parliamentarians approve pro-European amendments to the Brexit law.

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From the technical point of view, the pair is in the downlink with a support level of 1.3210 (the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). If we talk about the level of resistance, here we are dealing with the mark of 1.3485 (the line Kijun-sen) and 1.3605 (the upper line Bollinger Bands on D1). When overcoming these targets, one can count on the development of the northern movement to 1.3901, which corresponds to the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Senators Demand Explanation From Mark Zuckerberg Over Latest Facebook Scandal

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »
Two months after Mark Zuckerberg sat before Congress and was questioned about Facebook’s protection of user data, the 34-year-old CEO finds himself once again under the spotlight. Two lawmakers, one Republican and one Democrat, asked Zuckerberg in a letter to explain a report from Sunday that Facebook shared large amounts of user data with hardware makers without user consent.

US Economy: Can More Women In The Workforce Mean A Boom To Global Stocks?

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »
LONDON - The secret to unlocking a further $6 trillion of gains in global stocks and adding another ten years to this bull run? Forget tax cuts and share buybacks, women are key, according to research by S&P Global.

GameCube Controllers For Nintendo Switch Revealed In New Leak

Trading 05 juin 2018 Commentaire »
One of the best things about the Nintendo Switch is the many ways users can play games on it. It’s packaged with Joy-Cons and users can buy the Pro Controller. However, it looks like the Switch console will soon be getting new controllers that should make GameCube fans happy.