The trade war holds the

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The Australian dollar was marked by an impressive spurt due to an increase in global appetite for risk after the release of data on the US labor market, the release of strong statistics on retail sales and optimistic forecasts of the OECD. The authoritative organization believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin to raise the main interest rate at the end of 2018 against the background of acceleration of average wages and inflation. GDP will grow by 2.9% this year and by 3% next year, unemployment will decrease to 5.4% in 2018 and to 5.3% in 2019. OECD believes that the main reasons for strong economic growth in Australia will be favorable the conjuncture of the commodity market and strong external demand.

The optimism of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development is not shared by the futures market, which, on the contrary, has shifted the expectations of the first increase in the cash rate since 2016 from the current 1.5% to the second half of 2019. Along with unfavorable internal factors in the form of sluggish labor and inflation, leaving much to be desired (unlike the main developed countries, unemployment in Australia is far from full employment (5%), investors are apprehensive about the trade wars, the rise in the cost of borrowing in the United States and the Italian political crisis. The shift in the timing of the start of the normalization of the monetary policy of RBA, along with the worsening global appetite for risk, put pressure on the Australian dollar.

Dynamics of MSCI EM and the probability of increasing the cash rate

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One of the main problems of the "Aussie" is connected with the growth of the yield of US treasury bonds against the background of expectations of raising the Federal Reserve rate on federal funds to 2.5% within 12 months. This circumstance, coupled with the unwillingness of the RBA to change anything in the field of monetary policy, allows Morgan Stanley to recommend its clients to sell the AUD/USD. The yield differential between the 10-year Australian and American bonds is -15 bp, with an average value of the indicator for the last five years at +68 bpts. Such a situation on the debt market deprives the "Aussie" of support from carry traders who prefer to invest in assets of developing countries.

Additional pressure on the "Aussie" poses the risks of a trade war. The US is going to pause it, then revive the idea of import duties on steel and aluminum due to the intractability of its trading partners from Canada, Mexico and the EU, they openly shout about military actions. Donald Trump on his Twitter account said if you one $800 billion annually, there is no point in fearing a trade war. Under US pressure, China could reduce purchases of goods and services from Australia, which will negatively affect its economy. However, short-term strong statistics on retail sales, GDP and moderate optimism of the RBA may contribute to the correction of AUD/USD.

Technically, the return of the pair's quotations to the boundaries of the long-term upward trading channel will increase the risks of implementing the Bat pattern with a target of 88.6%.

AUD/USD, daily chart

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‘Lords Of The Fallen 2’: Defiant Studios Tapped To Develop Game

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
“Lords of the Fallen 2” finally has a team of developers to work on it. CI Games has tapped New York City-based Defiant Studios to develop the sequel after the project was stuck in limbo for a couple of years.

‘Red Dead Redemption 2’ Different Editions, Preorder Bonuses Announced Ahead Of Release

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
Over the weekend, Microsoft made a mistake by updating the listing for “Red Dead Redemption 2” on its online store, which leaked the preorder bonuses of the Western-themed action-adventure game. The listing was removed shortly after it gained attention from the gaming community.

‘Guitar Hero Live’ Losing Majority Of Songs When GHTV Mode Shuts Down

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
“Guitar Hero Live’s” GHTV mode is coming to an end later this year. This means the music video game by FreeStye Games is losing most of the songs from its library.

US Unemployment 2018: 22% Of Men Without College Don’t Have Jobs. Here’s Why They’re Being Left Behind

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
The unemployment rate has plunged to about the lowest level in half a century. Yet at least one group of Americans is being left behind: men who didn’t go to college.

Euro and pound make their way up

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The European currency continues its steady growth against the US dollar after a slight decline on Friday evening, due to good statistics on the US labor market.

Despite the fact that the prices of eurozone producers remained unchanged in April, the decrease in political risks associated with Spain and Italy has a positive effect on investors who are returning to risky assets.

According to the statistics agency, inflationary pressures in the euro area remain moderate, and this is subject to a sharp rise in energy prices.

So, the PPI producer price index of the eurozone in April this year has not changed compared with March. Compared to the same period in 2017, the index grew by 2.0%, which in itself shows a good result. Economists expected the indicator to increase by 0.5% in April.

Today, also a report on GDP growth in Greece, which was at a fairly acceptable level in the first quarter of this year, was also published. This suggests that the economy continues to grow after a small overall recession in the eurozone in the first quarter of this year, which will allow Greece to approach the end of the eight-year assistance program.

According to the statistics agency Greece Elstat, Greece's GDP in the 1st quarter of 2018 grew by 0.8% compared with the fourth quarter of 2017. As noted in the report, the growth of the economy was due to a good increase in the export component and consumer spending. The decrease was observed in the growth of capital investments. It is expected that the Greek economy should show an increase of 2.3% this year, after growing 1.4% in the past.

As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, buyers continue to strive for new highs around 1.1770 and 1.1830. As for the intraday picture, to maintain the ascendant potential, bulls need to stay above 1.1715 at the end of the day.

The British pound also rose after the release of data on the index of supply managers PMI for the construction sector. Despite the fact that the service sector is still key, PMI for the construction sector indicates a favorable state of the economy.

According to the report, the index of supply managers PMI for the UK construction sector was at the level of 52.2 points, which indicates an increase in activity.

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The Australian dollar gets serious support and strengthens its position against the US dollar after an excellent report on retail sales, released in the morning.

According to data, retail sales in Australia in April this year rose by 0.4%, while economists predicted an increase of only 0.2%. A good report on retail sales will positively affect the final GDP data, which will bring the RBA closer to the next steps towards raising interest rates. Inventories of companies in Australia in the 1st quarter increased by 0.7%, while companies' profits increased by 5.9%.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Weekly review of the GBP / USD on June 4, 2018

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar, of course, continued to grow but eventually finished the week at the same values on which it began. So we can say that its growth at least stopped despite all the incredibly good report of the Ministry of Labor. The unemployment rate declined from 3.9% to 3.8%, and out of agriculture, 223 thousand new jobs were created. Moreover, the growth rate of the average hourly wage has accelerated from 2.6% to 2.7%. So, the content of the text of the report was purely positive. However, the dollar could not develop its success. To some extent, a single European currency had a positive impact on the pound, which was able to improve its position due to preliminary data on inflation. Given the large share of the euro in the dollar index, the single European currency pulled up and other currencies. A small contribution was made by the data on lending in the UK, as the volume of consumer lending grew by 1.8 billion pounds against 0.4 billion pounds in the previous period. Although the number of approved applications for mortgages decreased from 62 802 to 62 455.

The current week will be almost empty on the macroeconomic data so that serious changes in the market are not expected. You can pay attention to the data on stocks in warehouses wholesale in the US, which should increase by 0.6%. This is not the best result, so far there is no reason to resume the growth of the dollar. Thus, we can assume that, due to the excessive overbought dollar, market participants will try to at least slightly eliminate imbalances, especially on the eve of the forthcoming meetings of the Federal Commission for open market operations and the Bank of England. So the pound may well grow to 1.3500.

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Technical analysis and trading recommendations for the GBP / USD currency pair as of June 4, 2018

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »

The currency pair pound / dollar continues to form a corrective movement, pushing us from the pivot point by about 200 points. Now, we see how the quotation fluctuates in the value of 1.3380, but still retaining the "bullish" interest. It is possible to assume that the upward mood will still be preserved, where the quotation will try to get closer to the range level of 1.3440, which at the same time reflects us the interlacing with the Fibo value of 23.6. Given the coordinates (1.3440), I would consider for a good stop and, perhaps, even for a change in trading forces.

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Cavaliers vs. Warriors Game 3 Prediction: Can LeBron James Get Cleveland Back In The Series?

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been here before. In fact, they’ve been in this exact spot in each of the last three years—trailing the Golden State Warriors 2-0 in the NBA Finals before playing Game 3 at home. Cleveland responded in Game 3 of the 2016 Finals, winning by 30 points before eventually mounting a comeback from a 3-1 series deficit. The Cavs came up short in their first home game of last year’s Finals, blowing a four-point lead in the final 90 seconds at Quicken Loans Arena.

Microsoft Purchases Code-Sharing Website GitHub

Trading 04 juin 2018 Commentaire »
One of the world's biggest tech companies just bought one of the biggest software development platforms. Microsoft Corp. on Monday morning confirmed the $7.5 billion purchase of code-sharing website GitHub Inc. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella called the move a way for Microsoft to “strengthen our commitment to developer freedom, openness and innovation.” GitHub had previously been privately owned, and the $7.5 billion comes in the form of Microsoft stock.