EUR/USD's rebound from 1.3033 was a bit stronger than expected and mixed up the outlook for a while. But Friday's sharp decline cleared the picture. Recovery from 1.3033 should be a corrective only and is finished and decline from 1.3385 is set to resume this week. Break of 1.3033 will confirm this bearish case. Further break of 1.
USD/JPY dipped further to as low as 80.56 last week but tried to draw support from 80.58 and turned sideway. Nonetheless, recovery was rather weak. Overall development in yen crosses suggests that yen's rally is not over. We'd mildly favor deeper fall as long as 81.86 minor resistance holds. Decisive break of 80.56 will extend the decline from 84.17 to 61.8% retracement of 76.02 to 84.
The choppy recovery from 1.5804 extended to as high as 1.5983 last week but Friday's sharp decline indicates that fall from 1.6060 is ready to resume. Initial bias is on the downside this week and break of 1.5804 will target 1.5602 support next. Note that whole rebound from 1.5234 is likely completed at 1.6060 already. Break of 1.5602 should confirm and target a test on f 1.5234 low.
USD/CHF's pull back from 0.9222 was deeper than expected and mixed up the outlook for a while. But the strong rebound form 0.9091 clear the picture on Friday. Rise from 0.9001 should still be in progress and initial bias is on the upside for 0.9222. Break will confirm resumption for 100% projection at 0.9312 which is close to 0.9334. Break there will confirm resumption of rise from 0.
AUD/USD's strong rebound last week suggests that a short term bottom is in place at 1.0225. As long as 1.0331 minor support holds, stronger rise is mildly in favor to 61.8% retracement of 1.0852 to 1.0225 at 1.0612. Break of 1.0636 will indicate that choppy rebound from 0.9387 is still in progress for another high above 1.0852 before completion. Meanwhile, failure below 1.
Despite a brief rally to 1.0053, USD/CAD failed to sustain gain there and settled back into choppy sideway trading. More consolidative trading could be seen initially this week. Judging from the corrective nature of the price actions from 0.9841, another decline is mildly in favor to extend the fall from 1.0552. But we'll need a break of 0.9888 support to indicate resumption of such fall.
GBP/JPY tried to recover after dipping to 127.87 last week but the recovery was rather weak. Instead, Friday's fall argues that decline from 133.48 is ready to resume. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 127.87 and break will target a test on 126.54. Based on overall outlook in yen crosses, 126.54 would likely be taken out and in that case, deeper decline should be seen back to 61.
EUR/JPY attempted to draw support from 105.64 last week but the strength of recovery was weak. Instead, Friday's fall suggest that decline from 111.43 is still in progress and is set to resume this week. More importantly, 105.64 would likely be taken out decisively and there would be near term bearish implication. In any case, deeper fall would be in favor as long as 107.
EUR/GBP edged lower to 0.8226 last week but lost momentum ahead of 0.8221 low and turned sideway. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But recovery should be limited by 0.8293 resistance and bring another fall. Decline from 0.8505 is treated as resumption of whole fall from 0.9083 and break of 0.8221 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% projection of 0.8830 to 0.
Rallye du dollar pour terminer la semaine, les tendances du risque restent la préoccupation numéro unTrading 14 avr 2012 Commentaire »
Sur la base d'un graphique hebdomadaire du Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index, il apparaît que le billet vert s'est avancé dans une période chargée de congestion. La monnaie se tient maintenant dans un range de 200 pips, juste sous le plus haut d'un range de 14 mois qui a empêché tout renversement vers une tendance haussière plus vaste. Le risque est clair.