Can US Consumers Continue to Power the US Recovery – 3 Key Factors

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
From Bloomberg: U.S. Consumer Credit Increases by Most in Ten Years on Household Optimism. "Consumer borrowing (CICRTOT) in the U.S. surged in November by the most in 10 years, showing households are optimistic enough to take on debt and banks are willing to lend.

Daily Outlook – Fitch warns on Italy but Affirms France AAA Rating

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »

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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) sentiment improved and US stocks moved to fresh 5 month highs after rating agencies affirmed Frances AAA rating which was a relief to cautious sidelined investors. With little US economic data traders instead looked to company earnings which so far have been better than expected. In US stocks, DJIA +69 points closing at 12462, S&P +11 points closing at 1292 and NASDAQ +25 points closing at 2702. Looking ahead, Crude Oil inventories forecast at 0.9m vs. 2.2m previously. Also FED Beige Book released.

The Euro (EUR) the markets took heart with Fitch comments that Germany’s rating was safe at AAA and France is unlikely to be downgraded in 2012 and only Italy is currently at threat of imminent Downgrade. The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY both enjoy a relief rally for the second day but gains were limited and the major found heavy resistance above 1.2800. The downside is still likely to be tested again before we can talk of the downtrend ending. Looking ahead, Final Q3 GDP forecast at 0.2 vs. 0.2% q/q.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY contained to Monday’s range with more action seen on Crosses with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY moving higher with stocks. EUR/JPY is being sold on rallies however and in Asia on Wednesday we are once again seeing selling from Japanese investors. AUD/JPY moved to Y79.50 and is in striking distance of Y80 going forward.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD tested 1.5500 in Europe but failed to break the big figure and consolidated below for the rest of the day. The market has traded in this range for many days now and is primed to break out in fresh direction as the trading year heats up. Strong stock markets suggest a move to the 1.5700 whilst a Greece debt deal failure opens up 1.5200 and 1.5000.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD once again outperformed the rest of the risk currencies with the Asian commodity currency seen insulated from the Eurozone debt crisis and fortunes instead linked to the China story. Some weaker than expected Chinese import data yesterday has prompted some speculation the China may adopt more monetary easing or stimulus measures.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold moved higher breaking above $1630 taking advantage of the weaker USD. Oil was volatile with the market dipping back to $101 in Europe before retesting recent highs above $103 in the US session.

Pairs to watch

EUR/USD Will the ECB help or hurt at tomorrow’s meeting

EUR/CHF Many Traders waiting for 1.2000 SNB floor test

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2588

1.2644

1.2750

1.2813

1.3080

USD/JPY

76.00

76.58

76.85

77.74

78.98

GBP/USD

1.5272

1.5402

1.5465

1.5526

1.5629

AUD/USD

1.0044

1.0127

1.0285

1.0387

1.0567

XAU/USD

1561.00

1605

1636

1641

1662

OIL/USD

100.00

101.00

101.90

103.50

105.00

Euro – 1.2750

Initial support at 1.2644 (Sept 10 2010 low) followed by 1.2588 (Aug 24 2010 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2813 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1.3080 (Dec 28 high)

Yen – 76.85

Initial support is located at 76.58 (Nov 18 low) followed by 76.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 77.74 (Dec 30 high) followed by 78.98 (Nov 1 high).

Pound – 1.5465

Initial support at 1.5402 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.5272 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5526 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1.5629 (Jan 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0285

Initial support at 1.0127 (Dec 30 low) followed by the 1.0044 (Dec 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0387 (Jan 3 low) followed by 1.0567 (Mar 3 high).

Gold – 1636

Initial support at 1605 (Jan 9 low) followed by 1561 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1641 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1662 (50% retrace of 1802.93-1522.65).

Oil – 101.90

Initial support at 101.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

 

 

 

 

Daily Outlook – Fitch warns on Italy but Affirms France AAA Rating

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
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Daily Outlook – Fitch warns on Italy but Affirms France AAA Rating

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »

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U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) sentiment improved and US stocks moved to fresh 5 month highs after rating agencies affirmed Frances AAA rating which was a relief to cautious sidelined investors. With little US economic data traders instead looked to company earnings which so far have been better than expected. In US stocks, DJIA +69 points closing at 12462, S&P +11 points closing at 1292 and NASDAQ +25 points closing at 2702. Looking ahead, Crude Oil inventories forecast at 0.9m vs. 2.2m previously. Also FED Beige Book released.

The Euro (EUR) the markets took heart with Fitch comments that Germany’s rating was safe at AAA and France is unlikely to be downgraded in 2012 and only Italy is currently at threat of imminent Downgrade. The EUR/USD and EUR/JPY both enjoy a relief rally for the second day but gains were limited and the major found heavy resistance above 1.2800. The downside is still likely to be tested again before we can talk of the downtrend ending. Looking ahead, Final Q3 GDP forecast at 0.2 vs. 0.2% q/q.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) the USD/JPY contained to Monday’s range with more action seen on Crosses with AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY moving higher with stocks. EUR/JPY is being sold on rallies however and in Asia on Wednesday we are once again seeing selling from Japanese investors. AUD/JPY moved to Y79.50 and is in striking distance of Y80 going forward.

The Sterling (GBP) the GBP/USD tested 1.5500 in Europe but failed to break the big figure and consolidated below for the rest of the day. The market has traded in this range for many days now and is primed to break out in fresh direction as the trading year heats up. Strong stock markets suggest a move to the 1.5700 whilst a Greece debt deal failure opens up 1.5200 and 1.5000.

Australian Dollar (AUD) the AUD/USD once again outperformed the rest of the risk currencies with the Asian commodity currency seen insulated from the Eurozone debt crisis and fortunes instead linked to the China story. Some weaker than expected Chinese import data yesterday has prompted some speculation the China may adopt more monetary easing or stimulus measures.

Oil & Gold (XAU) Gold moved higher breaking above $1630 taking advantage of the weaker USD. Oil was volatile with the market dipping back to $101 in Europe before retesting recent highs above $103 in the US session.

Pairs to watch

EUR/USD Will the ECB help or hurt at tomorrow’s meeting

EUR/CHF Many Traders waiting for 1.2000 SNB floor test

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.2588

1.2644

1.2750

1.2813

1.3080

USD/JPY

76.00

76.58

76.85

77.74

78.98

GBP/USD

1.5272

1.5402

1.5465

1.5526

1.5629

AUD/USD

1.0044

1.0127

1.0285

1.0387

1.0567

XAU/USD

1561.00

1605

1636

1641

1662

OIL/USD

100.00

101.00

101.90

103.50

105.00

Euro – 1.2750

Initial support at 1.2644 (Sept 10 2010 low) followed by 1.2588 (Aug 24 2010 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2813 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1.3080 (Dec 28 high)

Yen – 76.85

Initial support is located at 76.58 (Nov 18 low) followed by 76.00 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 77.74 (Dec 30 high) followed by 78.98 (Nov 1 high).

Pound – 1.5465

Initial support at 1.5402 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.5272 (Oct 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5526 (Jan 6 high) followed by 1.5629 (Jan 5 high).

Australian Dollar – 1.0285

Initial support at 1.0127 (Dec 30 low) followed by the 1.0044 (Dec 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.0387 (Jan 3 low) followed by 1.0567 (Mar 3 high).

Gold – 1636

Initial support at 1605 (Jan 9 low) followed by 1561 (Jan 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1641 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1662 (50% retrace of 1802.93-1522.65).

Oil – 101.90

Initial support at 101.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 100.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 103.50 (Intraday resistance) followed by 105.00 (Intraday Resistance).

Written by Anthony Darvall

 

 

 

 

Daily Outlook – Fitch warns on Italy but Affirms France AAA Rating

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
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Fundamental Analysis, January, 10 / 2012

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »

The President of the Swiss National Bank, Philipp Hildebrand, submitted his resignation, could not withstand the public pressure after last week emerged that his wife Kashya, had bought $ 500,000 a few days before the agency intervene in the exchange rate, which left the French anchored to 1.20 against the euro.

With some logic, the officer resigned but said he did not know the transaction, which said hearing held the day after. The lady said, meanwhile, did not know the details of what her husband would enjoy two weeks después.Lo truth is that the operation made money, but the officer was out of work.

The franc rose about 60 points in minutes, which reversed immediately, being the only new relevant medium.

The summit of Merkel and Sarkozy left another string of good intentions, promises firm action and severe, and no solution or specific measure. More of the same, and so the market reacted, doing nothing.

From whom do you talk about is Mario Draghi. The new President of the ECB leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday, but speculation will not hesitate to cut it in the coming months if, as expected, Europe comes almost entirely in the second recession in three years. Speculation is that by mid-2012 the benchmark interest rate, currently at 1%, would fall by half, of course impacting the euro in the negative.

Tuesday's European session brings a healthy recovery of the bags, which operate mostly with gains of 1.2% on average. Mining companies are leading the rise in stocks on the old continent, and all this also gives strength to the euro, which positions quickly recovered after a strong lateralization that observed during the Asian session.

In turn, the rise of an ounce for gold up to the Australian dollar, which again exceeded the 1.03 area, in a move that, however, seems to have much time left.

And oil, which is close to $ 103 per barrel WTI also strengthens their currencies pegged, the Canadian dollar, which rose above 1.0280 at these times, and the Mexican peso, with a current price of 13, 60 is located at its highest since Dec. 12.

Without macroeconomic reports for the next hours, and the Dow Jones index futures "flying" in the direction upward, the opening of the NYSE appears as the point to consider in the coming hours.

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

EUR/USD technical analysis for January 10, 2012

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »

 

The European currency is now trading below the level of $1.28 per euro. The price has fixated confidently behind the 1.30 level and is trading in the lower ranges. On January 6 a new point of the local price minimum – 1.2664 – was formed; now this point should be considered as the second support level. As to the current state of the market, the price is definitely trying to push off the 1.2800 level and is ready to fall down to 1.2715. The possibility of the decline is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator in a 4-hour graph where the oscillator lines demonstrate overbought condition.

 


Levels:

Resistance 3 – 1.2945
Resistance 2 – 1.2870
Resistance 1 – 1.2800
Support 1 – 1.2715
Support 2 – 1.2664

The material has been provided by Instaforex Company - instaforex.com

The Dollar’s Lucky Streak

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that recession is returning. Not surprisingly then, the dollar is currently hitting a multi-year high against the euro.

Autochartist – Daily Forex Update: AUD/USD

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
AUD/USD continues to advance inside the Clear Ascending Triangle chart pattern identified by Autochartist on the daily charts. The overall Quality of this chart pattern is measured at the 6 bar level, which reflects the following values of the individual contributing Quality indicators: below-averag...

London Session: Fitch backs down from a French downgrade

Trading 10 jan 2012 Commentaire »
The big news of this session is that risk is rallying on the back of a few factors: 1, better than expected Chinese trade data (although the detail of the report was a bit sketchy) and 2, news from rating agency Fitch that a French downgrade is not on the cards, that Germany's top rating is safe and that Austria is in no immediate danger of losing its triple A status.