With the start of the trading session in the currency section of the MICEX, the Russian Rouble rate is traded downward in pairing with the USD in response to thecontinuing negative external background which is associated with expansion ofthe European debt problem and decline in the oil prices.
The trading session for the USD started at the level of 32.05 roubles, which is 5kopeks more than yesterday's closing level; the UER started at the levelof 40.95 roubles (+2 kopeks).
Dual currency basket value amounted to 36.07 roubles today (+4 kopeks).
Low liquidity is still preserved in the domestic currency market, due to on going New Year holiday.
Presumably, the pair USD/Rouble will be in the channel of 31.95-32.15 Roubles for USD at the trading session on Friday.
FOREX : reprise des craintes liées à la crise des dettes en zone euro, la mise en vente de titres français au centre de l’attentionTrading 06 jan 2012 Commentaire »
At the Forex currency market the Australian Dollar rate continues to weaken at theend of the week, amid risk aversion in the market.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair AUD/USD has returned to the position below the signalline on the side of the negative zone and is not giving a clear signal.Stochastic Oscillator is leaving overbought zone and is shaping a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.0210, the pair will go to 1.0200 and 1.0180. Situation inAustralia remains almost unchanged in terms of macro-economic background.
External background is not in favour of the AUD, as due to the expansion of Europeandebt crisis, investors are moving away from the risky positions. According tostatistics released yesterday, business activity index AiG in the service sector of Australia rose to 49.0 points in November against the level of 47.7 points in October. In addition, trade balance amounted to +А$1.38 billion against expectations of +А$2.0 billion.
Unemployment rate increased to 5.3% inNovember against the forecast of 5.2%. Employment rate fell by 6 thousandagainst the growth of 16.8 thousand earlier. Economists expected the theincrease of jobs by 10 thousand. The indicator reflects the impact of European debt problems on the Australian economy. Retail sales in Australia increased to the minimum value of +0.2% m/m over 4 months in October. In September the index rose by 0.4%, and by 0.6% in August. It became known earlier that privat esector lending in Australia increased by 0.3% m/m (+3.5% y/y) in November against the growth of 0.2% m/m in October.
Australian Central Bank noted last week, thatthe country has been fighting against repercussions of European debt crisiswith the help of investment boom: minutes of the last meeting of the ReserveBank of Australia showed that there is no urgent need at the moment in lower ingrate and current steps directed to ease monetary policy is sufficient to support economy.
Observers believe that lowering of the rateby RBA in December was just a safeguard against external negative factors.
Consumer sentiment index Westpac-MI fell to94.7 points, -8.3% m/m in December against the value of 103.4 points inNovember. Business confidence index NAB in Australia increased to 1 point in November against zero level in October. This data is positive at the moment ascurrent conditions have stabilized; however levels of business confidence arestill unvaried. It became known earlier that trade balance in Australia fell to +A$1.60 billion in October against expectations of +A$2.0 billion. Slump in the global demand has played its part here as well.
The Japanese Yen rate has stabilized at the Forex currency market at the end of theweek after the fall during previous sessions; investors are becoming interested in the JPY again as of a "safe harbor".
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/JPY is inthe positive area and is descending, giving a sell signal. StochasticOscillator has come out of the overbought zone and is steadily growing, givinga buy signal.
Forex recommendations: off the market.
Feasible event scenario at Forex: in case of breakdown at of 77.30, the pair will go to 77.40 and 77.70. If upward breakdown doesnot take place, the pair will consolidate at the current levels. It is becominga habit now to blame the Euro for all problems in the levels of Japanese exports:Finance Minister of Japan Mr. Azumi said on Friday that the fall of the Eurohad caused significant damage to the exports levels, while financialauthorities of Europe are wasting time and do not take essential measures.
Attitude of Japan to this issue is logical:EU shall create a kind of barrier to prevent expansion of the debt problems.
Important Japanese news has not been released.
We would remind that a meeting of the Bank ofJapan, which was held in December, was gloomy. Thus, the regulator noted thatgrowth of economic activity has slowed down and activity in Japanese economy iszero. The Bank has revised economic situation assessment downward in comparisonwith November, which is logical. Japanese economy will start to recover as soonas pressure from Europe diminishes. In addition, interest rate in the countrywas left unchanged at the level of 0.1%. This decision had been expected.
Minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan released earlier, states that it is necessary to trace back the effect ofthe recent soft policy; special concern is caused by the potential impact ofthe expensive Yen. Thehead of the Bank of Japan Mr. Shirakawa noted earlier that growth of the JPYcontinues to negatively impact on the local economy and that current rise ofthe JPY was provoked by European crisis. He believes that if appropriatemeasures are not taken straight away, economy of Japan will decline sharply by2030. Mr. Shirakawa also noted that interventionsagainst Yen are acceptable and effective. However, practical steps to supportthe words have not been made: apparently the Japanese regulator is in the"fly-through mode" presently moreover, the Yen does not give grounds for intervention due to its moderate activity.
At the Forex currency market Swiss Franc rate continues to weaken on Friday.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pair USD/CHF is in the positive area and is going down, giving a sell signal, volumes are average.Stochastic Oscillator is going up moderately in the neutral zone and is givinga buy signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 0.9550, the pair USD/CHF will go to 0.9560 and 0.9580.
Yesterday, the head of Swiss National Bank,Mr. Hildebrand received a vote of confidence from Swiss government: earliermarket had discussed information about wife of the monetary politician, an ex-trader, who bought USD a few weeks before the Franc was pegged to the Euro.
The head of the SNB said more than once thathe is not going to leave his post as he has never break any laws and hasnothing to do with his wife's business.
GDP in Switzerland will amount to 1.5%-2.0% this year;main growth will be attributed to the results of the first part of the year.
According to the data released in the end ofDecember leading indicators index KOF fell to 0.01 points in December againstthe forecast of 0.23 points and previous revised value of 0.34 points. Itbecame known earlier that trade balance in Switzerland rose by 3.0 billionfrancs in November against the forecast of +2.00 billion francs and previousvalue of +2.15 billion francs. Index is favourable; however it is based on theefforts of the local regulator to curb the rate of the Franc.
Observers from Wells Fargo believe thateconomic indexes in Switzerland demonstrated slowdown all the year round; manyindexes give indication that weakness will continue for the next six months.According to them, domestic demand is also getting lower which is a negativesign. As for the rate, it is most likely that SNB will adhere to the zerolevel, due to soft inflation. Statistics released earlier showed that businessactivity index PMI SVME in Switzerland increased to 50.7 points in December against 44.8 points in November.
Three-month Libor rate was left in the range of 0-0.25%, closer to zero; the Bank did not change pegging level of Franc toEuro, maintaining the actual level of 1.20. In the follow up comments the headof SNB Mr. Hildebrand stressed that the regulator will continue to maintain thetarget rate of CHF, with the help of purchases of foreign currency in unlimitedquantities and additional package of measures if situation requires. SNB isready to maintain high level of liquidity, as inflation growth is not expected.In general, economy of the country depends a lot on the European crisis.Apparently, SNB has adopted attitude of an onlooker, keeping in place existingmanagement tools, being pretty confident that they always have time to startintervention. Swiss National Bank noted earlier that the regulator is preparedto take additional measures if situation at Forex deteriorates. According toSNB, strong Franc creates extra problems for the economy and the issue ofnegative interest rates and control over the capital movement is being thorough lyscrutinized in the Bank.
The British Pound Sterling rate is traded downward at the Forex currency market on Friday, as the flow of negative factors is too strong.
Forex forecast: MACD indicator for the pairGBP/USD is traded in the negative area and is moving along the signal line, notgiving a clear signal. Stochastic Oscillator is going down in the neutral zoneand is giving a sell signal.
Forex recommendations: in case of breakdownat the level of 1.5480, targets for selling will be the levels of 1.5460 and1.5440. If downward breakdown does not take place, the pair will consolidate atthe current levels.
Sale of the GBP is still of emotional nature,as from the fundamental point of view, situation in the British economy isstable. Investors in the market are moving away from risks because of thethreat that European debt problem will expand. Meanwhile, the latest statisticsis quite positive. Thus, composite PMI in the UK increased to 53.2 points in December against the level of 51.2 points in November.
According to the data released yesterday, PMI in the construction sector rose to 53.2 points against expectations of 52points. In addition it became known in the middle of the week that net consumerlending amounted to 0.394 billion pound in November against the forecast of 0.3 billion pounds. Number of approved mortgage applications in the same monthin creased to 52.854 thousand against the previous level of 52.786 thousand. It became the maximal level since December 2009.
The data released earlier showed that PMI CIPS in manufacturing sector increased to 49.6 points in December against 47.7points in November. The data is definitely positive; however the fact that theindex is below the level of 50 points proves that downward risks are still preserved. The Bank of England announced earlier that average inflationary expectations reduced to 4.1% in November against the level of 4.2% in August. At the same time, the level of two-year inflationary expectations was around 3.4% (3.5% previously).
It is also worth noting that the Bank ofEngland expects stagnation in the economy in the next quarter and GDP growth inQ1 next year. Revised GDP in the UK rose by 0.6% q/q (+0.5% y/y) in Q3,statistics released earlier has supported buyers. The index is above preliminary assessment, which was appreciated in the market. It became knownearlier that CPI in Great Britain increased by 0.2% m/m (+4.8% y/y), asexpected. Therefore, British inflation is slowing down its pace; however the index is still too far from the target level for the Bank of England.
At the Forex currency market the pair EUR/USD is traded downward on Friday morning continuing to slide down under influence of external negative news.
By 9.00 MSK the Euro is at 1.2772 against yesterday'sclosing level of 1.2793.
Investors are pending negative news: a lot of macro-economic information is scheduled for publication today including the data on theemployment market in the US and Eurozone, which is expected to be weak.
France had sold out almost all bonds planned for placement,although it did not make market too anxious.
Therefore, statistics has all chances to add black colours to the market in the end of the week.
Most likely the pair EUR/USD will not gobeyond the range of 1.2720-1.2830 at the trading session on Friday.