Bitcoin analysis for May, 23.2019

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

BTC price has has been trading downside as we expected. BTC tested and rejection of the $7.417. Anyway, we still expecting more downside on the BTC.

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Red horizontal line - horizontal support

Red Horizontal line 2 – horizontal support

Red rectangle – Resistance cluster

Breakout of symmetrical triangle in the background was the key for the sellers and today BTC is testing the lower diagonal of the triangle. Strong resistance is set at $7.745 and it is good place for short positions. Downward references are set at $7.417 and $7.010. Additionally, we found overbought condition on the Stochastic oscillator. Watch for selling opportunities with the first target at $7.417.

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GBP/USD analysis for May, 23.05.2019

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

GBP/USD price has has been trading upside as we expected. The GBP tested the level of 1.2670. We are still expecting more upside on the GBP.

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Red horizontal line - horizontal resistance

White line- Bullish divergence line

The bullish divergence on the H4 time-frame did set the tone for the day. The price is now testing the medium Bollinger band at 1.2675. Our advice is to watch for potential breakout of the medium Bollinger to confirm further upward movement. Watch for potential test of 1.2743. Key support is set at the price of 1.2605.

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Bullish reversal candlestick pattern in the 4 hour chart of EURUSD

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

EURUSD has been trading weak all morning breaking below 1.1150 support and reaching 1.11 as expected. In previous posts continued to note that trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1230-1.1260 but there were significant bullish divergence signs by the RSI. EURUSD has now made a 180degree turn with a 4 hour candle looking very bullish.

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Red line - important resistance trend line

Red rectangle - reversal candlestick

EURUSD has made a low at 1.1107 and closed the 4hour candlestick at 1.1182. Price remains below resistance still but traders should not ignore this long bullish reversal candle pattern. Short-term resistance is where the top of the candle is and recent highs where selling pressures started and lead to the decline to 1.11. Breaking above this level will open the way for a move towards the red resistance trend line at 1.1230. Trend will change to bullish if price breaks above 1.1230-1.1260. Until then bulls need to be cautious. Yes this is an important sign for the bullish scenario but we need to see follow through. Without any follow through this reversal pattern has no meaning.

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Analysis of Gold for May, 23.2019

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price has has been trading upside as we expected. The Gold tested the level of $1.287. We are still expecting more upside on the Gold.

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Yellow rectangle - horizontal resistance

Orange rectangle- horizontal resistance 2

Gold has been trading upside and our first target from yesterday at $1.287 is on the test. The momentum is upside and it is very risky for selling. We expect potential test of the second resistance at $1.298. Stochastic oscillator is looking stron as well, which adds more upside potential. Watch for buying opportunities.

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Technical analysis for Gold for May 23, 2019

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Gold price was breaking below important support of $1,276 and was about to test $1,266 low. Price reversed and we are now looking at another try from bulls to change the trend. Resistance is still formidable at $1,300-$1,290 area so bears are still alive.

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Black line - resistance trend line

Green line - major support trend line

Blue neckline -horizontal support

Gold price although marginally broke below the green trend line support it is now well back above it challenging the black downward sloping trend line resistance. Gold price has recaptured the blue neckline and the green trend line. These are important wins for bulls but still not game over for bears. Bulls will need to break above $1,294 and of course recapture $1,300 in order to regain control of the trend and hope for a move to $1,350. As long as price remains below $1,300 bears have the upper hand.

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May 23, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570.

Since then, the EURUSD pair has been moving within the depicted channel with slight bearish tendency.

Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200.

This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15.

Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) then 1.1175 (100% Fibonacci level).

For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23.

On May 13, another bullish pullback was executed towards the mentioned price zone (1.1230-1.1250) where the current bearish movement was initiated.

Recently, the EURUSD pair has been trapped above the next key-zone (1.1175) until last Friday when a bearish breakout below 1.1175 was achieved.

Hence, further bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1115 provided that the price level of 1.1190 remains defended by the EURUSD bears.

Trade recommendations :

Conservative traders who were advised to have a SELL entry around the supply zone (1.1235-1.1250) should lower their S/L towards 1.1190 to secure more profits. Remaining Target level should be projected towards 1.1115.

Intraday traders can watch for a counter-trend BUY entry upon bullish breakout above 1.1180. T/P level to be located around 1.1240.

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May 23, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

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On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.3000 (the same bottom of March 29) which has been breached to the upside until May 13 when a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

That's why, the price zone of 1.3000-1.3020 turned to become a prominent supply-zone where a valid bearish entry was offered few weeks ago.

Bearish persistence below 1.2980 (Neckline of the reversal pattern) enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the pair.

Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650).

The GBPUSD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2650-1.2700). That's why, SELL signals shouldn't be considered at such low prices.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.2690 and 1.2750 is needed to enhance the bullish side of the market on the short-term.

Trade Recommendations:

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid sell entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

Counter-trend traders can wait for a bullish breakout above 1.2690-1.2700 as a BUY signal. T/P level to be located around 1.2750 and 1.2820.

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Total trade war can collapse most currencies

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

The threat of an escalation of the US and Celestial trade war triumphed the greenback and hit primarily on the positions of the currencies of developing countries.

Based on the reports of Bloomberg, the salvo released by Donald Trump on May 10 for Chinese imports in the amount of $200 billion helped the US currency strengthen and caused damage to EM assets - from Taiwan and the Republic of South Africa to Brazil.

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According to Salman Ahmed of Lombard Odier Investment Managers, "The currencies of developing countries are most vulnerable to the escalation of the trade war of the two largest economies in the world. A quick solution to the problem is hardly worth the wait".

As tensions increase in trade relations between Washington and Beijing, traders are trying to understand whether developing countries are able to overcome the problems that caused the exchange rates of national currencies to rise and fall in the US dollar, or at least be able to withstand the strengthening of the American currency. In turn, they could take advantage of the interest rate and higher returns.

JPMorgan Chase strategists doubt this. Last week, they moved to a position "below the market" in EM currencies, including the South African rand and the Taiwan dollar.

"A change in the direction of trade negotiations could lead to a downward revision of forecasts for the growth of currencies of developing countries. We believe that the market needs to adjust its expectations depending on the results of trade negotiations between the United States and China", representatives of the bank said.

"It is the most undervalued topic on the market," commented by Thomas Korterg, an economist at Pictet Wealth Management.

Experts at Goldman Sachs warned that there may be many currencies in the line of fire - from the euro to the South African rand and the Chilean peso.

"Taiwan and South Korea could lose the most if the situation escalates. Won and Chinese yuan, as well as the Taiwanese, Australian and Canadian dollars, are subject to risks, and the euro can fall quite strongly. To protect against downside risks, I advise you to take short positions in these currencies or invest in bonds of the respective countries", said by the head of the currency strategy at Westpac, Richard Franulovich.

Nordea Investment Funds believes that "If Washington and Beijing fail to make a deal that will prevent an all-out trade war, then the Chinese yuan will be 10% depreciated. This can create a domino effect on the currencies of developing countries sector".

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ECB Minutes Suggest Weakening Confidence About Eurozone Growth

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

European Central Bank policymakers acknowledged that they were less confident regarding a return of solid growth in the euro area in the second half of the year, minutes of the April 9-10 policy session showed on Thursday. While the more protracted "soft patch" suggested by the latest data remained consistent with this baseline scenario, "it was acknowledged that there was now somewhat less confidence in this baseline scenario and that the range of other possible outcomes had widened," the minutes, which the ECB calls "account", said. "More information would need to be gathered in the run-up to the Governing Council's June monetary policy meeting, when new Eurosystem staff projections would become available."


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Swiss Industrial Production Growth Steady At 4.3%

Trading 23 mai 2019 Commentaire »

Switzerland's industrial production grew at a steady pace in the first quarter, provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Thursday.

In the first quarter, industrial output grew 4.3 percent from the previous year, the same rate as seen in the fourth quarter. Production advanced 4.2 percent in January, 3.7 percent in February and 5.1 percent in March.

Construction output logged annual growth of 1.2 percent in the first quarter, reversing a 2.8 percent fall in the preceding quarter.

Production of industry and construction grew 3.7 percent annually after climbing 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

Data showed that industrial turnover registered an increase of 3.6 percent in the first quarter. Turnover advanced 4.3 percent in January, 2.5 percent in February and 4.1 percent in March.

Construction turnover advanced 1.6 percent in the first quarter from last year.


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