Treasuries Move Modestly Lower, Extending Recent Downward Trend

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Treasuries moved modestly lower during trading on Wednesday, extending the downward trend seen over the past several sessions.

Bond prices regained some ground after an initial move to the downside but remained in negative territory. Subsequently, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note, which moves opposite of its price, rose by 1.9 basis points to 0.816 percent.

The ten-year yield closed higher for the fifth consecutive session, ending the day at its highest closing level in over a month.

The continued weakness among treasuries came as traders remain optimistic lawmakers will reach an agreement on a new stimulus bill.

White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told CNBC on Tuesday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have made "good progress" in talks but noted they "still have a ways to go" before an agreement is reached.

Pelosi and Mnuchin are expected to talk again today as they seek to reach an agreement on a new relief package before next month's elections.

In a post on Twitter, Pelosi's deputy chief of staff Drew Hammill said the Speaker and the Secretary have called for committee chairs to work to resolve differences about funding levels and language.

"With this guidance, the two principals will continue their discussions tomorrow afternoon upon the Secretary's return," Hammill tweeted.

However, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell revealed on Tuesday that he has warned the White House not to make a deal with Pelosi before the elections.

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard urged Congress to pass a new relief bill in a speech at an online conference hosted by the Society of Professional Economists.

"The recovery remains highly uncertain and highly uneven - with certain sectors and groups experiencing substantial hardship. These disparities risk holding back the recovery," Brainard said.

She added, "Further targeted fiscal support will be needed alongside accommodative monetary policy to turn this K-shaped recovery into a broad-based and inclusive recovery."

Economic activity continued to increase across all Federal Reserve districts, according to the central bank's Beige Book report released on Wednesday.

The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts, noted the pace of economic growth characterized as slight to modest in most districts.

Trading on Thursday may be impacted by reaction to reports on weekly jobless claims, existing home sales and leading economic indicators.


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Overview of the EUR/USD pair. October 22. Is there a real chance that Donald Trump will stay in the White House for another

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

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Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 143.9324

During the third trading day of the week, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement as if nothing had happened. Although the movement to the north continues for three consecutive days, there was no correction during this period, and the euro/dollar pair continues to trade inside the side channel. The only question is what are the boundaries of this channel. Perhaps this is 1.1700 and 1.1900 – the channel within which the pair has been trading for about a month and a half. It may be 1.1640-1.1920(1.1940). The pair's quotes have not been able to get out of this channel for almost three months. One way or another, however, the sideways movement is now visible to the naked eye. You only need to look at timeframes older than 4 hours. Thus, although at first glance the current upward movement is quite strong and pulls on the "trend", so far absolutely nothing has changed in the technical picture. At any moment, especially after reaching the level of 1.1900 or on the approach to it, the pair can turn down and start a new round of downward movement on the same side channel. The most important thing is that the fundamental and macroeconomic backgrounds do not have any influence on the pair's movement at the moment. Not for a long time. If the general fundamental background brought the euro to the current levels (two-year highs), then traders were not able to lead the pair over the past three months. Although there have been plenty of noteworthy events during this time. There is an opinion that most market participants simply do not want to take risks before the US presidential election. However, it should be understood that this is just an assumption. Therefore, we still recommend that you focus on technical factors when making trading decisions.

Most media and experts have already buried Trump's re-election chances. Support ratings have consistently pointed to at least a 10% gap between Biden and Trump for several months in a row. And the situation does not change. Moreover, various sociological models of respected publications and analysts also predict the victory of the Democrat, with a completely gigantic probability of at least 80-85%. A couple of weeks ago, some experts believed that Trump's only chance of winning was due to a lawsuit that could end the 2020 election. That is, Trump can freely appeal to the Supreme Court, saying that the election was rigged and demand an investigation. The laws do not prohibit this. Thus, purely hypothetically, the Supreme Court may side with Trump and declare the election invalid. However, first of all, it is unlikely that the court will recognize the elections as rigged by Democrats in all states of the country. That would be very strange and suspicious. Most likely, in our case, we will be talking about one or at most two states that give the largest number of "electoral votes". For example, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, or California. However, the revision of the voting results in these states is enough to change the election results. For example, the number of electoral votes given by the state of Pennsylvania is 20, Philadelphia is 29, and California is 55. To win, a presidential candidate needs to get 270 votes. As you can see, if the gap in the election results between Biden and trump is less than 58 votes, then the revision of the results in just one state will lead to the opposite results in the election. And in this case, Trump needs the support of the Supreme Court. And he will have it because five of the nine Supreme Court Justices are Republicans, and Trump is going to appoint to the post the sixth judge before the election. Thus, 6 out of 9 judges can provide Trump with the necessary review of the results. Of course, it is not necessary that if the case goes to court, everything will turn out in favor of the current president. However, the probability of this is high, as in the case of impeachment, which was initiated by the Democrats, and which did not take place simply because the Republicans have a majority in the US Senate.

So far, the situation is not in favor of Trump. The situation with the" coronavirus", a huge number of false statements over 4 years, the trade war with China, in which it is the States that lose, the dark history of impeachment, constant wars with the Democrats, social unrest based on issues of racism, a record drop in the economy in 2020, a lost first round of debates with Joe Biden. It would seem that Trump has no chance of winning the election at all. Moreover, the elections have already begun, since in America it is allowed to vote early. Americans started voting early. And most of them are voting for Biden. And while Americans are voting for Biden, Republicans are placing their ballot boxes in the most important states, which is completely absurd. But Republicans and Trump understand that they can't win completely honestly and transparently, so they try to use any chance to win.

In principle, Trump has only one chance before the election to change the situation a little in his favor. Tomorrow in America, the last round of TV debates will take place, at which the president was advised by his campaign team not to interrupt Biden, to behave more politely, and to joke and smile more. Trump may be able to win back 1 or 2% of the electorate. However, we believe that it is unlikely. And it seems that the fate of the elections will be decided through the disputed states. And this is the only and main trump card of Trump. Biden needs a complete and unconditional victory so that the results of the largest states no longer matter. If he wins by more than 110 votes, then Trump is unlikely to help anything. If the margin in the most important and contested states is strong, then there will most likely be no review of the vote.

The US dollar continues to fall in price two weeks before the election, however, this may be completely unrelated to any fundamental data decline. We have already said that the pair simply continues to trade inside the side channel. The euro currency is growing now, and the dollar may start to grow in a couple of days.

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The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of October 22 is 71 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.1797 and 1.1939. A downward reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator may signal a downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1841

S2 – 1.1780

S3 – 1.1719

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1902

R2 – 1.1963

R3 – 1.2024

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in buy orders with targets of 1.1902 and 1.1939 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair returns to the area below the moving average line with targets of 1.1719 and 1.1658.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Overview of the GBP/USD pair. October 22. Brussels insists and will continue to insist that European fishermen have access

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

4-hour timeframe

analytics5f90cd28956a4.jpg

Technical details:

Higher linear regression channel: direction - downward.

Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.

CCI: 276.9621

The British pound sterling paired with the US currency continues to fling from side to side. After several days of relatively quiet trading, the pound/dollar pair again plowed more than 200 points for the day yesterday. As usual, there was no good reason for the British pound to do this. During the day, there were no important statistics or important speeches by Boris Johnson or any of the EU authorities who could claim that some progress had been made in the Brexit negotiations, which would have caused the pound to strengthen. No, there was nothing like that, however, the pound has risen again, and we can only wait for the "storm" to end since it is extremely difficult to predict the movement of the pair now. Moreover, there is no influence on the fundamental background of the pair at the moment. The pound is growing despite the highest probability of a "divorce "of the UK from the European Union without a "deal". And if we were talking about the euro/pound pair, then the pound could theoretically strengthen since the lack of a deal is also a blow to the Eurozone economy. However, we are talking about the pound/dollar pair.

The "coronavirus" in the UK is of no small importance now, which will also leave its mark on the already weakened economy in any case. In the Foggy Albion, the second "wave" began, which is already four times stronger than the first. But this is only the beginning. According to the Johns Hopkins Institute, more than 20,000 people have been infected in Britain over the past day. Thus, firstly, the number of diseases continues to grow, and secondly, the current levels of morbidity are four times higher than those recorded in the spring. And, as we said, this is just the beginning. The cold season (when there is a sharp increase in diseases of various viruses, flu, colds) is still ahead, which means that the number of diseases may continue to grow.

Meanwhile, UK business and manufacturing continue to sound the alarm. It is reported that the absence of a deal with the European Union for the automotive industry in Britain will be much more terrible and dangerous than the "coronavirus crisis" and its consequences. It is reported that the British car industry exports more than 50% of all its products to the European Union. Accordingly, if there is no "deal" between the parties, then exports to the EU countries will be greatly reduced due to the banal rise in the price of cars produced in Britain. The same applies to many international car manufacturers. For example, Japanese or German companies that also actively exported their products to Britain.

At the same time, the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, does not see the point in principle to continue negotiations on a Brexit deal. According to Michel, it was not the European Union that initiated the "divorce", it was not the European fishermen who decided on Brexit. Thus, he does not understand why it is the Europeans who should go along with London and try to please them with a trade agreement? According to Michel, European fleets will be irreparably damaged if access to British waters is closed. The head of the European Council also believes that the UK wants to maintain access to a huge and diversified European market, just as the European Union wants to maintain access to its fishermen in British waters. Charles Michel also added that there is no point in discussing, signing, and ratifying the agreement with London if it is incomplete. Thus, Charles Michel once again showed that Britain will not get access to the European market if it does not also agree to make concessions and demands from Brussels. Given the fact that the final divorce between the parties is less than 10 weeks away, and there is still no progress, we would also recommend that market participants prepare for the absence of an agreement. Perhaps it will be signed later because no one forbids the parties to continue negotiations in 2021. However, you can not count on it until the New Year.

And despite all this news, the British currency continues to strengthen. However, the European currency continues to grow, but only within the side channel. Both major currency pairs have been very poorly correlated with each other in recent months, however, it can now be assumed that both euro currencies are growing due to the US dollar and falling demand for it. Still, election day is approaching in the United States, which means that the tension and uncertainty associated with the future of the country and its economy are growing. Thus, theoretically, the growth of the pound and the euro can be associated with the same elections in America. However, the probability of this is not too high.

Meanwhile, Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi "forgot" about her deadline in negotiations with Republicans and expressed hope that the parties will still be able to reach an agreement on a new stimulus package for the American economy before this weekend in a conversation with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. The White House also expressed hope for an agreement and said "both sides are working hard". However, the markets are already tired of receiving information in the form of "parties continue to work hard". Traders need concrete results of these negotiations or their completion to draw clear conclusions and build new trading strategies based on them. Until then, the pound/dollar pair may remain a "storm". After yesterday's strong growth, today we may see an equally strong drop in quotes.

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The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair is currently 136 points per day. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is "high". On Thursday, October 22, thus, we expect movement inside the channel, limited by the levels of 1.3021 and 1.3293. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards signals a round of downward correction.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.3123

S2 – 1.3062

S3 – 1.3000

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.3184

R2 – 1.3245

R3 – 1.3306

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started a new round of upward movement on the 4-hour timeframe. Thus, today it is recommended to trade for an increase with the targets of 1.3184, 1.3245, and 1.3293 before the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to trade the pair down with targets of 1.2939 and 1.2878 if the price returns to the area below the moving average line.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Oil Futures Settle Sharply Lower

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Crude oil prices drifted lower on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns over a drop in energy demand after data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed smaller than expected drop in oil stockpiles and an increase in gasoline inventories.

Reports showing a surge in new coronavirus cases in several states across America further added to demand concerns.

West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for December were down $1.67 or about 4% at $40.03 a barrel.

Brent crude futures were down by about $1.50 or 3.5% at $41.65 a barrel.

The EIA data said crude oil inventories fell 1 million barrels last week, against expectations for a draw of 1.02 million barrels. Crude stockpiles dropped by about 3.8 million barrels a week earlier.

Crude oil stored at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased 975,000 barrels compared to an expected build of 1.1 million barrels.

Gasoline inventories were up by 1.9 million barrels last week, while distillates stockpiles were down 3.8 million barrels.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday reported a build in crude oil inventories of 584,000 barrels for the week ending October 16, adding to concerns about a global supply glut. Analysts had forecast an inventory draw of 240,000 barrels.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

EUR/USD. New stimulus package and old tricks of politicians: the dollar is under pressure again

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Once again, the US dollar index is diving down: the indicator has reached almost two-month lows, reflecting the market's skeptical attitude to the US currency. Discussion of the long-suffering bill for a new incentive package continues to put pressure on the greenback.

The negotiation process resembles a multi-part melodrama, the storyline of which is noticeably delayed. Nevertheless, traders continue to react sharply to the news flow related to this topic, and the plot twists of recent days were not in favor of the US dollar. Representatives of the Democratic Party still cannot find a common language with representatives of the White House and the Republican Party. The deadline for negotiations expired yesterday, but the situation remained in limbo – the "deadline" was shifted again this time until the end of this week. Both Democrats and Republicans understand that the American economy needs more assistance, but they are all hostages of the pre-election period.

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Joe Biden is already ahead of his main rival, Donald Trump, by 11% based on the latest polls. While based on the results of the final televised debates, which will be held tomorrow, the leader of the Democrats can strengthen their electoral positions. At least the first television duel Biden won "dry." According to the American press, for this reason (including), Democratic congressmen are in no hurry to agree to the terms of the White House. After all, the country may be headed by their party member in only a few weeks. Therefore, the entire Ministerial staff will change. In this political scenario, only the Senate (the upper house of Congress) remains in the "opposition," where the majority is controlled by Republicans. On the other hand, the Democrats cannot "directly" refuse to negotiate, as such behavior can be played against their political strength (opponents will try to present this as a refusal to help Americans affected by the pandemic).

Thus, there is a sluggish political game in which representatives of the Democratic Party regularly declare "progress made," as well as "the need for further negotiations".

Since the difference in views regarding the amount of aid to the US economy is evident, the Democrats registered their version of the bill, the volume of which is $2.2 trillion. They were even able to vote for it in the House of Representatives (i.e., the lower house of Congress), where they have a majority. However, it is still necessary to have the approval of the Senate (where Republicans rule) and the US President's signature in order for the draft law to become law. In September, Senate Republicans failed to pass even a reduced $500 billion aid proposal. According to the Senate Majority Leader, his party members "do not see the need for a second round of targeted financial assistance in the amount of $1,200." In addition to this, Democratic opponents oppose a number of programs that are proposed by Democrats.

Representatives of a third party, the White House, agreed to raise the bar for the Bipartisan Bill under discussion to $1.8 trillion. But the proposal was called "unacceptable" by the Democratic Party.

According to a number of American political observers, even if representatives of the Trump administration and the Democratic Party were able to find a "common denominator," it still is far from a fact that their bill will eventually pass the millstone of Congress. Bloomberg reported that many Senate Republicans are strongly opposed to the scope of the stimulus package that is currently being discussed. In turn, Republican majority leader Mitch McConnell allegedly suggested to the White House not rush in concluding an agreement before the presidential election. Despite this information being unofficial (journalists refer to informed sources of the Agency), the market seems to be inclined to believe the press.

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If the entire information puzzle is put altogether, it can be assumed that American politicians (both on one hand and the other) will continue to make a "good face at a bad game," assuring that negotiations are carrying on. Another possibility is that the parties will start accusing each other of being counterproductive. In any case, the probability that the new package of incentives will be adopted before the presidential election is quite small. All this suggests that the US dollar will continue to be under pressure.

The greenback's weakness allows traders of the euro-dollar pair to conquer new price heights. Today, the EUR/USD pair broke through the resistance level of 1.1850 (the upper line of the BB indicator coincides with the upper border of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe). The nearest resistance level is located at 1.1900 – the upper BB line on the four-hour chart. However, the key goals of the northern movement are located higher, and these are 1.1950 and 1.2000. Longs with targets of 1.1900-1.1950 can be considered at the moment. In the area of the 20th figure, special caution must be observed: a negative reaction from the European Central Bank, whose representatives have repeatedly criticized the overvalued Euro exchange rate, is quite likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Gold Futures Settle Higher For 3rd Straight Day

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Gold prices moved higher on Wednesday and the front-month gold futures contract extended its gains to a third successive day, as the dollar continued to exhibit weakness.

Reports showing continued surge in coronavirus cases across the world contributed as well to gold's uptick.

Dollar's weakness was due to continued optimism about a U.S. fiscal stimulus. Despite the ongoing impasse over stimulus talks, it is widely expected that the lawmakers will eventually arrive at a compromise by the end of this week.

The dollar index dropped to a low of 92.47 around late morning, and despite edging up a bit subsequently to 92.56, was still notably lower, netting a loss of over 0.5% from previous close.

Gold futures for December ended up $14.10 or about 0.7% at $1,929.50 an ounce.

Silver futures for December moved up $0.261 to settle at $25.241 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $3.1985 per pound, up $0.0505 from previous close.

On the stimulus front, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are expected to talk again today as they seek to reach an agreement on a new relief package before next month's elections.

In a post on Twitter, Pelosi's deputy chief of staff Drew Hammill said the Speaker and the Secretary have called for committee chairs to work to resolve differences about funding levels and language.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Fed's Beige Book Says Economy Increased At Modest Pace

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Economic activity continued to increase across all Federal Reserve districts, according to the central bank's Beige Book report released on Wednesday.

The Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal evidence on economic conditions in the twelve Fed districts, noted the pace of economic growth characterized as slight to modest in most districts.

The report said manufacturing activity generally increased at a moderate pace, while residential housing markets continued to experience steady demand for new and existing homes.

Banking contacts also cited increased demand for mortgages as the key driver of overall loan demand, the Fed said.

Meanwhile, the Fed said commercial real estate conditions continued to deteriorate in many districts, with the exception being warehouse and industrial space where construction and leasing activity remained steady.

The report also said consumer spending growth remained positive, but some districts reported a leveling off of retail sales and a slight uptick in tourism activity.

Employment increased in almost all districts, the Fed said, although growth remained slow. Job gains were reported most consistently for manufacturing firms, but firms continued to report new furloughs and layoffs.

On the inflation front, the Beige Book said prices rose modestly across districts since the previous report. Input costs generally increased faster than consumer prices, although some sectors-notably construction, manufacturing, retail, and wholesale-passed along the higher costs to consumers.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*Fed's Beige Book Says Economic Activity Continued To Increase Across All Districts

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Fed's Beige Book Says Economic Activity Continued To Increase Across All Districts


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Treasury Announces Results Of Auction Of $22 Billion Worth Of Twenty-Year Bonds

Trading 22 oct 2020 Commentaire »

The Treasury Department announced the results of this month's auction of $22 billion worth of twenty-year bonds on Wednesday.

The twenty-year bond auction drew a high yield of 1.370 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.43.

Last month, the Treasury also sold $22 billion worth of twenty-year bonds, drawing a high yield of 1.213 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.39.

The bid-to-cover ratio is a measure of demand that indicates the amount of bids for each dollar worth of securities being sold.


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Analytics and trading signals for beginners. How to trade EUR/USD on October 22? Getting ready for Thursday session

Trading 21 oct 2020 Commentaire »

Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair

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The EUR/USD pair continued to move up without any correction throughout the day on Wednesday, October 21. On the one hand, such a strong movement is easy enough to work out, since there are no pullbacks. On the other hand, we advise novice traders to look for the most ideal signals to enter the market, since such recoilless movements are generally quite rare. Therefore, since there was no correction, the MACD indicator did not discharge to the zero level and, accordingly, was unable to form strong and clear buy signals. This means that novice traders should not have opened new long positions, at least based on our recommendations. We remind you that the price, in fact, continues to move inside the horizontal channel of 1.17-1.19 all this time, having previously rebounded from its lower border. Thus, a downward reversal may occur in the 1.1903 area and we may return to a downward movement. The upward trend line continues to support those who are trading down, but almost any correction in the pair will lead to the fact that quotes will settle below this line. This will be the first signal to change the trend.

No important macroeconomic publications in the European Union and America on Wednesday. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech, but she did not report anything important and interesting for market participants. Moreover, the euro and the pound both grew almost simultaneously all day, which suggests that the reason for this growth lies in America or the dollar. However, the US did not provide any important information either. Democrats and Republicans still cannot agree on a new package of assistance to the US economy, but still express hope for an agreement in the coming days. However, this kind of information should have caused the dollar to rise, as well as its fall.

The calendar of macroeconomic events in the European Union and America is practically empty again on Thursday. You can turn to the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. However, the market will likely ignore this report. Therefore, novice traders will have to look for news and closely monitor technical factors tomorrow, which, by the way, do not add too much clarity to the current picture. We expect a downward reversal around 1.1900.

Possible scenarios for October 22:

1) Buy positions on the EUR/USD pair remain relevant at the moment, since the price continues to trade above the rising trend line. Novice traders are advised to wait for a new round of downward correction, discharge of the MACD indicator and a new buy signal in order to open new long positions with targets at 1.1888 and 1.1903. Also, if one of the traders is now in the longs, then they can keep them open until the MACD indicator turns down.

2) You can return to taking sell positions on the currency pair, but first the price should settle below the rising trend line. In this case, the price could drop with the first targets at the support levels 1.1807 and 1.174, and in general it will aim for the lower border of the horizontal channel at 1.1696, from which it has rebounded several times.

On the chart:

Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.

Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).

Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.

Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com