GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 22. EU leaders rejected the postponement of Brexit from March 29 to June

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on GBP/USD you need:

Yesterday, the pound flew into the abyss after EU leaders rejected Theresa May's proposal to postpone the UK's release date to 30 June. At the moment, buyers need to stay above the support level of 1.3120, and the formation of a false breakdown in that area will be a signal to open long positions. A more interesting area for bulls will be the level of 1.3068, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately to rebound. The main task will be to return and consolidate above the resistance of 1.3173, which will lead to an update of the high near 1.3222, where I recommend to lock in the profit.

To open short positions on GBP/USD you need:

Sellers of the pound will try to form a false breakdown at the resistance area of 1.3173, which will be the first signal to sell the pound, but the main goal will be a breakout and consolidation below the support of 1.3120, which will lead to selling the GBP/USD to the low of 1.3068 and 1.3004, where I recommend to take profit. With growth scenarios above 1.3173, good resistance levels can be seen in the area of 1.3222 and 1.3266, from where you can open short positions immediately to a rebound.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In case of an attempt to increase the pound's rate, the upward potential of the Bollinger Bands indicator will be limited to around 1.3175. In case the pound decreases, support will be provided by the lower limit in the area of 1.3050.

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Description of indicators

  • MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow
  • MA (moving average) 30 days - green
  • MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9
  • Bollinger Bands 20
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Forex analysis review 2019-03-22 09:39:40

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »
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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 22, 2019 for the pair GBP / USD

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, there is a high probability of moving up, after testing the support line 1.3023 (yellow thin line). The first upper target 1.3227 is the upper fractal.

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - down;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - up;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, there is a high probability of moving up, after testing the support line 1.3023 (yellow thin line). The first upper target 1.3227 is the upper fractal.

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Indicator analysis. Daily review on March 22, 2019 for the pair EUR / USD

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Trend analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1422 is the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Fig. 1 (daily schedule).

Comprehensive analysis:

- indicator analysis - up;

- Fibonacci levels - up;

- volumes - up;

- candlestick analysis - down;

- trend analysis - up;

- Bollinger lines - up;

- weekly schedule - up.

General conclusion:

On Friday, the price may continue to move upwards. The first upper target of 1.1422 is the pullback level of 61.8% (blue dotted line).

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 22/03/2019

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Technical market overview:

The EUR/USD pair has broken above the technical resistance zone between the levels of 1.1406 - 1.1419, but reversed suddenly and tested the local technical support at the level of 1.1361 with a low at 1.1343. The momentum remains positive, but the market conditions are now overbought and if there is no impulsive move higher above the level of 1.1447, the bears might take the control over the market and push the prices lower again. The next technical support is seen at the level of 1.1294.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.1502

WR2 - 1.1422

WR1 - 1.1372

Weekly Pivot - 1.1287

WS1 - 1.1251

WS2 - 1.1168

WS3 - 1.1131

Trading recommendations:

The recent news driven a spike up has blurred the picture and the bearish bias has been invalidated as the price might be making another leg up in the bigger corrective move. As long as the level of 1.1343 is not clearly violated again, global investors should open long orders during the local pullbacks.

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GBP / USD: "passing" meeting of the Bank of England and zugzwang for Theresa May

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

The March meeting of the Bank of England escaped the attention of traders. Pound completely ignored this event, focusing on the prospects of Brexit. On the other hand, the English regulator also did not give cause for any concern which goes for absolutely "passing" meeting, without any intelligible hints on further actions. Nevertheless, the main points should be noted - because if the epic "divorce process" is completed (there is such a probability), then the focus of attention of gbp / usd traders will return to the prospects of the monetary policy of the British Central Bank.

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Actually, this fact is recognized by the regulator itself. According to Mark Carney, the results of Brexit can cause both tightening and easing of monetary policy - although the corresponding decision will not be automatically made. By and large, last year the head of the Bank of England "tied" a possible change in the parameters of monetary policy with Brexit. If we summarize all his statements on this subject, then we can conclude: with a "hard" scenario, the regulator will not necessarily reduce the rate - it will continue to monitor the dynamics of economic indicators. With a "soft" Brexit, the Central Bank is more likely to increase the rate - inflation is still at high values, allowing regulator members to make an appropriate decision. However, when it comes to extending the negotiation process, this simple algorithm of actions is relevant and at the moment.

Therefore, the market did not pay enough attention to the outcome of the meeting: everything is quite predictable. In my opinion, it is necessary to single out the three main theses of the March meeting. First, the regulator warned that employment growth in the near future could slow down significantly. Obviously, in this way, the Central Bank reacted to the latest release on the labor market: while unemployment fell, the number of applications for unemployment benefits jumped to 20 thousand (although the forecast was at 13 thousand). Whether these figures are a manifestation of the seasonal factor or whether we are dealing with a negative trend - time will tell. But in my opinion, there is no cause for concern, given the dynamics of growth in wages.

The second important thesis is an assessment of inflation growth. According to the Central Bank, core inflation is at an acceptable level and corresponds to the forecast. This fact corresponds to the general conclusion of the members of the regulator: a gradual and limited tightening of the "may be necessary" policy. In other words, the Bank of England is ready to raise the rate this year, and key indicators of the economy allow it to be done, and the regulator's hands are "tied" only by a question of Brexit. That is why the events are viewed by the market through the prism of the prospects for the monetary policy of Britain.

In the meantime, the political confrontation between Brussels and London reaches its apogee. By and large, Teresa May herself drove into a state of zugzwang - when each subsequent move worsens the overall position of the player. An official statement was released today following a meeting of heads of state and government of the EU countries. Yesterday's rumors were fully confirmed: EU leaders agreed to postpone the UK withdrawal from the Alliance - but, firstly, only until May 22, and secondly, if only the British House of Commons approves the Brexit agreement next week. Otherwise - exit March 29 without any deal.

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The piquancy of the situation lies within the fact that the British parliamentarians have already managed to reject the deal and the option to exit without a deal. Moreover, May currently cannot bring the draft agreement to a second vote, since the Speaker of the House of Commons blocked this possibility, referring to the provisions of the convention 400 years ago.

In other words, the script is clearly played out not by Theresa May's notes. Apparently, the British Prime Minister did not expect such a harsh reaction from the French requesting for the postponement of the X-hour. However, now, the British have fallen into the "legislative trap", which they, in fact, built themselves. In the coming days, the focus of market attention will again shift to London, where the fate of Brexit will be decided once again.

Hypothetically, deputies have the opportunity by vote to ignore the rule of the above convention voiced by the Speaker of the House of Commons. But for this, the prime minister needs to convince his party members and unionists of the appropriate need. According to the results of the last vote, more than 70 conservatives are against the deal in their current form. Whether Theresa May can "lure" them to her side, given the current situation, is an open question. But, it is precisely on the resolution of this issue that the fate of Brexit and the fate of the British currency depend on.

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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 22/03/2019

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Technical market overview:

The GBP/USD pair has moved lower and hit the technical support at the level of 1.3012. The bounce after the hit was shallow and the price went up only to hit the level of 1.3155, mainly due to the oversold market conditions. Nevertheless, an event the move down did not solve the problem of consolidation as any of the important levels was violated and the price returned to the mean. The momentum remains weak and negative, so the market might resume its recent down move and test the level of 1.3012 or 1.3000 again. Any breakout lower will be a game-changing move for the whole market.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3917

WR2 - 1.3636

WR1 - 1.3473

Weekly Pivot - 1.3224

WS1 - 1.3055

WS2 - 1.2794

WS3 - 1.2638

Trading recommendations:

The market is still in a consolidation phase, so it will be better to wait for a trading setup after the consolidation terminates. The best one would be a breakout in either direction, but due to the fact that the trend is still up, traders should prefer to buy in the local corrections and wait for the market to resume the up move. Only a sustained breakout below the level of 1.2959 would invalidate the short-term bullish bias and deepen the correction.

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GBP / USD: Brexit will be extended until May 22?

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

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In the evening, the leaders of the countries of the European Union agreed to postpone the release of the UK from the EU for several weeks.

"Brussels is ready to provide London with a delay until May 22, if the divorce agreement is approved by the British Parliament next week. Otherwise, the postponement will last only until April 12, " based on the final communique of the EU summit.

"Up until this date, April 12, all options for the UK will remain open. The government of the country can still make a choice between the deal, its absence, the long postponement of the Brexit date or the withdrawal of the application for withdrawal from the alliance, " said European Council President Donald Tusk.

The British currency has responded to this news growth, departing from session lows.

Interestingly, the GBP / USD pair once again pushed away from an important support level, the breakdown of which opens the way to decline for several figures at once.

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Many experts are now asking themselves: if British politicians have not been able to agree so many times, what will change in the allotted few weeks?

"The situation in the form in which it is now, still suggests that the" hard "Brexit may occur," - said currency strategies Rabobank.

According to a consensus forecast of economists recently surveyed by Bloomberg, the UK's withdrawal from the EU without an agreement could lead to a drop in the pound sterling rate by 8% from current levels. The implementation of such scenario implies a reduction is in GBP / USD to 1.20.

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Analysis of the divergence of EUR / USD for March 22. Bearish divergence puts pressure on euro positions

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

4h

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On the 4-hour chart, the EUR / USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the American currency and consolidation under the corrective level of 50.0% - 1.1374. As a result, on March 22 the process of falling quotations can be continued in the direction of the next correction level of 38.2% - 1.1328. Maturing divergences in the current chart are not observed in any indicator. On the other hand, fixing the pair above the Fibo level of 50.0% will work in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the 61.8% correction level - 1.1420.

The Fibo grid was built on extremes from January 10, 2019 and March 7, 2019.

Daily

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On the 24-hour chart, after fixing the quotes above the Fibo level 127.2% - 1.1285, the growth process continues in the direction of the correction level 100.0% - 1.1553. The bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a return to the Fibo level of 127.2%. Meanwhile, fixing quotes under the correction level of 127.2% will increase the chances of the pair to further fall in the direction of the next correction level of 161.8% - 1.0941.

The Fib net is built on extremums from November 7, 2017 and February 16, 2018.

Recommendations to traders:

Purchases of the EUR / USD pair can be made with the target of 1.1420, if the pair closes above the level of 1.1374, and a Stop Loss order under the correction level of 50.0%.

Sales of the EUR / USD pair can be carried out with the target of 1.1328, if the pair disconnects from the level of 1.1374, and with a Stop Loss order above the Fibo level of 50.0%.

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Elliott Wave analysis of Ethereum for 22/03/2019

Trading 22 mar 2019 Commentaire »

Technical market overview:

The trendline breakout at the ETH/USD market turned out to be a false breakout with a high at the level of 138.92 and since then the market got back under the trendline and break through the technical support at the level of 134.68. The new local low was made at the level of 131.02 and currently, the price is trying to test the level of 134.68 from below. Nevertheless, the target for the unfolding wave (c) is still seen at the level of 123.36.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 162.50

WR2 - 153.11

WR1 - 146.18

Weekly Pivot - 134.66

WS1 - 129.36

WS2 - 120.05

WS3 - 112.99

Trading recommendations:

The first a target at the level of 134.68 has been hit, so now is time for the level of 127.85 to be tested as well. However, the final take profit level is still seen at 123.36 or slightly below, so it might be worth to wait for this level to be hit later.

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