The cost of oil peaked again in the last three months

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

By the end of Wednesday's trading on February 20, the price of Brent crude oil updated its three-month high, reaching $ 67.37 a barrel. According to experts, support for oil prices was largely due to the uncertainty about Brexit.

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Recall that on March 29 of this year, the UK is scheduled to leave the European Union. However, the situation around Brexit is full of contradictions in connection with analysts who advise taking into account the possibility of a tough development of events. At the same time, the UK is not ready to extend the free trade agreement with Japan and South Korea until it leaves the EU. Note that these Asian countries annually purchase British exports of 18.6 billion pounds. The UK Commerce Minister assured the leadership of these countries that the relevant agreements would be ready for signing the day after Brexit.

The current situation is supporting black gold prices, experts say. For example, the oil trader Trafigura purchased Brent oil from Vitol for delivery in March with a premium of 40 cents. This markup is considered the maximum for the last four months. When Equinor was selling oil at a premium of 45 cents, the above was only the value of the October deal. According to experts, the uncertainty regarding Brexit can lead to disruptions in the supply of black gold, so oil traders tend to minimize possible risks.

Futures for Brent crude oil rose more than 1% to $ 67.15 a barrel for April delivery. Since the beginning of this year, the North Sea grade of raw materials has risen in price by 24.8%. The cost of WTI light crude oil increased by 1.62%, to $ 57 per barrel.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

GBP / USD plan for the American session on February 20. Pound buyers are building a side channel for continued growth

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

As long as trading is above the resistance of 1.3037, the demand for the British pound will continue. However, the bulls need a breakthrough and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3089, which may coincide with a bad report on the American economy, which will lead to a new wave of GBP/USD growth to highs in the 1.3152 and 1.3214 area, where I recommend taking profits. In the case that the pair returns below the support level of 1.3037, it is best to consider new long positions to rebound from a minimum of 1.2984.

To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need:

For the bears to resume the downward correction, a bad news on Brexit or a good report on the state of the American economy is needed. Forming a false breakdown and returning below the resistance level 1.3089 will be the first signal to open short positions in the pound in order to reduce and consolidate below support 1.3037, which will increase the pressure on the pair and lead to a test of the minimum of 1.2984, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a pound rise in the second half of the day above the resistance of 1.3089, it is best to consider new short positions after updating the highs of 1.3152 and 1.3214.

More in the video forecast for February 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

A break of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator near 1.3090 may lead to a new wave of pound growth.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

Bollinger Bands 20

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EUR / USD plan for the American session on February 21. Demand for the euro remains even despite the bad data for the euro

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

To open long positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

After a weak report on PMI index activity in the eurozone, euro buyers failed to rise higher than the resistance of 1.1355 but the demand remains. In the afternoon, all attention will be focused on data of the US economy but the bulls still need to breakdown and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1355, which will lead to a larger upward correction already in the area of maximum 1.1394 and 1.1432, where I recommend taking profits. In the event of a EUR/USD decline, long positions can be opened on the condition that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1319 or on a rebound from the minimum of 1.1279.

To open short positions on EUR / USD pair, you need:

Today, euro sellers formed a false breakdown, which I drew attention in the morning forecast. As long as trading will be below 1.1355 resistance, we can count on a further EUR/USD decline to the support area of 1.1319, where I recommend taking profits. In case of consolidation below this level, the pressure on the EUR/USD pair may increase significantly, which will return the pair to the area of the minimum at 1.1279. With a scenario of further upward correction and a break of 1.1355, which can happen after the publication of weak data in the US, you can sell the euro to rebound from a maximum of 1.1394 and 1.1432.

More in the video forecast for February 21

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trade remains in the region of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market.

Bollinger bands

In the case of an upward correction, growth will be limited by the upper limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1366. However, a breakthrough of this level will be a good signal to buy.

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Description of indicators

MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow

MA (moving average) 30 days - green

MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

How the dollar reacted to the Fed’s protocols and what has changed in the regulator’s strategy?

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

While the dollar waits for the publication of the Fed's minutes, it went up again and the reason for this was more than serious. The minutes of the Fed revived expectations of a possible rate hike this year. In the meantime, the dollar rose slightly against the yen and reduced losses against the euro after the Fed said in the minutes of the last meeting that the US economy. The labor market remained strong, which strengthened the market's opinion about a possible increase in the interest rate. Recall that the Fed last month took the markets by surprise with their dovish comments, which looked like a signal that the regulator would stop the campaign to raise interest rates.

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Yet, the tone of the Fed has changed now. The dollar continued to grow, as the protocols seemed to reassure market participants, who remained confident that the Fed would raise rates this year. However, if you analyze the protocols in more detail, it becomes clear that they are not generally very different from the January speeches. Hence, it is too early to draw any conclusions that the Fed can easily change its strategy. We can say with confidence only one thing: the current attention of the market will return to the problems of the trade conflict. Most likely, the timing of the introduction of new tariffs will be extended and this may mean that Europe and Japan may face problems. Remember, US President Donald Trump said that the United States will impose tariffs on imports of European cars if they can not conclude a trade deal with the European Union.

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*RBI Minutes: Need To Strengthen Private Investment, Buttress Private Consumption

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

RBI Minutes: Need To Strengthen Private Investment, Buttress Private Consumption


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Drop More Than Expected To 216,000

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits fell more than expected in the week ended February 16th, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Thursday.

The report said initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000, a decrease of 23,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 239,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to dip to 229,000.

Despite the bigger than expected decrease, the Labor Department said the less volatile four-week moving average climbed to 235,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 231,750.

With the increase, the four-week moving average reached its highest level since hitting 237,500 in January of 2018.

Meanwhile, the report said continuing claims, a reading on the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment assistance, fell by 55,000 to 1.725 million in the week ended February 9th.

The four-week moving average of continuing claims still rose to 1,754,750, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 1,752,000.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

*China CB Not Yet Ready To Cut Key Interest Rates, Could Use Other Tools: Reuters

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

China CB Not Yet Ready To Cut Key Interest Rates, Could Use Other Tools: Reuters


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com

Poland Retail Sales Grow

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Poland's retail sales grew robustly in January, figures from Statistics Poland showed on Thursday.

Retail sales in constant prices climbed 5.2 percent year-on-year in January, compared to a 7.7 percent rise in January 2018.

Sales of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels showed the biggest growth of 6.0 percent, followed by 5.2 percent rise in sales of food, beverages and tobacco products.

The sales of motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts dropped by 0.9 percent against an increase of 18.1 percent in the previous year.

On a month-on-month basis, retail sales dropped 18.9 percent in January.

At current prices, retail sales grew 6.6 percent year-on-year and decreased 19.10 percent from the previous month.

Sales were forecast to advance 6.4 percent annually and fall 19.30 percent from the previous month.


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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for February 21, 2019

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

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On December 12, the previously-dominating bearish momentum came to an end when the GBP/USD pair visited the price levels of 1.2500 where the backside of the broken daily uptrend was located.

Since then, the current bullish swing has been taking place until January 28 when the GBP/USD pair was almost approaching the supply level of 1.3240 where the recent bearish pullback was initiated.

Shortly after, the GBP/USD pair lost its bullish persistence above 1.3155. Hence, the short-term scenario turned bearish towards 1.2920 (38.2% Fibonacci) then 1.2820-1.2800 where (50% Fibonacci level) is roughly located.

Last week, lack of bullish demand was demonstrated around 1.2920 until Friday when significant bullish recovery was demonstrated around 1.2800-1.2820 (Fibonacci 50% level) resulting in a Bullish Engulfing daily candlestick.

This initiated the current bullish breakout above the depicted H4 bearish channel. Hence, remaining bullish target is projected towards 1.3155, 1.3200 and 1.3240.

On the other hand, the GBP/USD pair currently has a significant demand zone located around (1.2960-1.2925) to be watched for BUY entries.

Bullish persistence above 1.2960 (newly-established demand zone) remains mandatory so that the current bullish movement can pursue towards the mentioned bullish targets. Any bearish breakdown below which invalidates the whole bullish scenario for the short term.

Trade Recommendations :

Any bearish pullback towards the depicted H4 demand zone (1.2960-1.2925) should be watched for a valid BUY entry. S/L to be located below 1.2890. T/P levels to be located around 1.3040, 1.3155 and 1.3235.

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Simplified Wave Analysis: Review of GOLD for the week of February 21

Trading 21 fév 2019 Commentaire »

Large timeframe:

Since September last year, gold quotations are moving up. The wave completes a complex correctional model of weekly timeframe. The preliminary target zone is approaching the lower boundary.

Small timeframe:

Since the end of January, a descending trend has formed on the gold chart. In the wave of the main trend, this is a correction that has the wrong appearance. From the current price level, you can expect a short-term decline, after which the bullish wave will continue.

Forecast and recommendations:

In the coming days, price movements are expected mainly in the lateral plane. Flat mood can last the whole week and too early for sales. It is recommended to wait for the completion of the correction and look for signals to buy the instrument.

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Resistance zones:

- 1375.0 / 1380.0

Support areas:

- 1310.0 / 1305.0

Explanations of the figures:

The simplified wave analysis uses waves consisting of 3 parts (A – B – C). Three consecutive graphs are used for analysis. Each of these analyzes the last incomplete wave. Zones show calculated areas with the highest probability of reversal. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author. The solid background shows the formed structure and the dotted exhibits the expected movement.

Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. To conduct a trade transaction, you need confirmation signals from the trading systems you use!

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com