*IMF Sees 2022 World Economic Growth At 4.2%

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

IMF Sees 2022 World Economic Growth At 4.2%


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*IMF Raises 2021 Global Growth Forecast To 5.5% From 5.2% Seen In October

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

IMF Raises 2021 Global Growth Forecast To 5.5% From 5.2% Seen In October


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Iceland Consumer Price Inflation Accelerates In January

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Iceland's consumer price inflation accelerated for the second straight month in January, Statistics Iceland reported Tuesday.

Consumer price inflation rose to 4.3 percent from 3.6 percent in December. The consumer price index less housing cost was 4.7 percent higher than a year ago.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped 0.06 percent, in contrast to a 0.20 percent rise in December.

Winter sales are ongoing and prices of clothing and footwear decreased by 6.5 percent and prices of furniture and furnishings decreased 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, cost of housing, water and electricity rose 0.6 percent and that of food and non-alcoholic beverages by 0.6 percent.

In December, producer price inflation slowed to 6.3 percent from 9.1 percent in November, the statistical office said in a separate report. On a monthly basis, producer prices dropped 1.8 percent in contrast to a 0.2 percent rise in November.


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UK Retailers Log Weakest Sales Since May 2020: CBI

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

UK retailers posted the weakest sales since May 2020 amid lockdown restrictions, survey results from the Confederation of British Industry showed Tuesday.

According to Distributive Trades Survey, the retail sales balance fell to -50 percent in January from -3 percent in December. This was the lowest since May 2020. A net 47 percent expects sales to fall again next month.

Similarly, the order book balance declined to -45 percent from -4 percent a month ago. A net 44 percent forecasts orders to drop in February.

At the same time, online sales growth eased slightly to around the long run average, with the balance dropping to +43 percent from +51 percent.

"With the lockdown likely to remain in place in the near-term, retailers expect this weakness to continue," Ben Jones, CBI Principal Economist, said. It is therefore vital that government support continues in parallel to restrictions.


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UK Jobless Rate Highest Since 2016 On Tough Lockdown Restrictions

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

The UK unemployment rate rose to a four-year high and the employment rate continued to decline in the three months to November as the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic added pressure on economic activity. The jobless rate rose 0.6 percentage points from the previous quarter to 5 percent in three months to November, labor force survey results from the Office for National Statistics showed Tuesday. This was the highest since early 2016 but below economists' forecast of 5.1 percent.

The extension of the furlough scheme from October 31, 2020 to April 30, 2021 has been effective in preventing another surge in job losses, Thomas Pugh, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The labor market will probably continue to weaken over the rest of the year, especially once the furlough scheme finishes at the end of April, Pugh noted. But a rapid rebound in GDP in the second half of this year should prevent the unemployment rate from reaching the global financial crisis levels of 8.4 percent.

"The prospect of extending lockdown makes it urgent that the Chancellor acts now to extend job and business support," Matthew Percival, CBI Director of People and Skills, said. "The Job Retention Scheme needs to run to at least the end of June to avoid a cliff-edge."

ONS data showed that the employment rate dropped 0.4 percentage points sequentially to 75.2 percent. Employment decreased by 88,000 on the quarter.

The number of people out of work increased by 202,000 on quarter to 1.72 million in three months to November.

Average earnings including bonuses increased 3.6 percent from last year versus the expected growth of 2.9 percent. Average earnings excluding bonus also grew 3.6 percent compared to forecast of 3.2 percent.

In December, the claimant count rose to a seasonally adjusted 7.4 percent from 7.3 percent in November. Jobless claims increased by 7,000 from the previous month to 2.6 million.

The redundancy rate reached a record high of 14.2 per thousand.


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*UK Jan CBI Retail Sales Balance Falls To -50% From -3% In Dec, Consensus -28%

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

UK Jan CBI Retail Sales Balance Falls To -50% From -3% In Dec, Consensus -28%


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Decline In Sweden Producer Prices Slows In December

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Sweden producer prices declined at a slower pace in December, Statistics Sweden reported Tuesday.

Producer prices fell 2.7 percent annually, slower than the 4.4 percent decrease posted in November.

Prices have been falling since January 2020 but this was the slowest fall in ten months.

Prices dropped 0.9 percent on the domestic market and by 4.5 percent on the export market. On the import market, prices were down 7.7 percent.

Prices on energy-related products fell 13.6 percent from last year. Excluding energy-related products, the PPI declined 0.9 percent.

Month-on-month, producer prices grew 1.2 percent in December, data showed.


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Gold Slides On Dollar Strength

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Gold prices eased on Tuesday as the dollar hit a near one-week high against rivals amid escalation of U.S.-China tensions in the South China Sea, continued political uncertainty in Italy and doubts over the speed and size of U.S. stimulus.

Spot gold slipped 0.2 percent to $1,852.50 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1.851.90.

China announced today it would conduct military exercises in the South China Sea this week, just days after Beijing bristled at a U.S. aircraft carrier group's entry into the disputed waters.

Meanwhile, index provider MSCI Inc said it will remove five Chinese firms from its global index as of the close on Jan. 27 in the absence of an update on a Trump administration order banning Americans from investing in certain Chinese companies.

Italian Prime Minister Conte is set to resign today and try to form a new coalition government ahead of a key vote on judicial reforms later this week, which commentators suggest the government was on course to lose.

On the stimulus front, U.S. President Joe Biden said he's open to negotiations on his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal, but didn't rule out pursuing a Democrat-only route for passage.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier Monday an aid package was unlikely before mid-March, just when jobless benefits from the last package will be running out.

A number of GOP Senators have expressed skepticism about the need for additional stimulus after recently approving a $900 billion relief package.


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Oil Extends Gains In Cautious Trade

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday to extend gains from the previous session amid expectations of a drop in crude supplies and bullish news coming from the OPEC front.

The upside was capped by rising coronavirus cases and renewed concerns over the passage of a U.S. stimulus package.

Brent crude for April settlement rose 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $55.85 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures were up 22 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $52.99 a barrel. Both contracts gained around 1 percent in the previous session.

Tanker tracker Petro-Logistics stated on Monday that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies' compliance with crude output curbs is averaging 85 percent in January so far compared to 75 percent in December.

"The biggest reductions in January supply are expected from Libya, Iraq, and Nigeria," it was said.

India's crude oil imports rose to their highest level in over two years in December as easing of most of the coronavirus-led restrictions boosted economic activity, government data showed on Monday.

British bank Barclays raised its 2021 oil price forecasts, but cautioned that emerging risks from growing coronavirus cases in China and the fading of such transitory factors could lead to near-term pullbacks.

On the stimulus front, U.S. President Joe Biden said he's open to negotiations on his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief proposal, but didn't rule out pursuing a Democrat-only route for passage.

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said earlier Monday an aid package was unlikely before mid-March, just when jobless benefits from the last package will be running out.


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U.S. Dollar Strengthens On Stimulus Uncertainty

Trading 26 Jan 2021 Commentaire »

The U.S. dollar advanced against its major counterparts in the Asian session on Tuesday, as worries over a delay in the U.S. stimulus package and a surge in coronavirus cases around the world lifted the demand of the safe-haven assets.

The proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package faces obstacles in the Senate, as several GOP leaders expressed opposition about the size of the measure.

With the Democratic party holding only a slim majority in the Senate, there are concerns about how much aid can be approved.

The Fed meeting will begin later today, with investors widely expecting it to keep its main interest rate unchanged.

The Fed funds rate stands at 0-0.25 percent and the quantitative easing program at US$120 billion per month.

The greenback spiked up to 5-day highs of 0.8896 against the franc and 1.2108 against the euro, up from its early lows of 0.8875 and 1.2146, respectively. The greenback is likely to find resistance around 0.90 against the franc and 1.18 against the euro.

After a fall to 1.3679 at 6:15 pm ET, the greenback rose to a 1-week high of 1.3610 against the pound. On the upside, 1.34 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

The greenback bounced off from its earlier lows of 0.7202 against the kiwi, 0.7720 against the aussie and 1.2730 against the loonie and climbed to a 4-day high of 0.7167 and 8-day highs of 0.7669 and 1.2782, respectively. The greenback is seen finding resistance around 0.70 against the kiwi, 0.75 against the aussie and 1.30 against the loonie.

The greenback reversed from an early 4-day low of 103.66 against the yen, with the pair trading at 103.83. If the dollar climbs further, 105.00 is likely seen as its next resistance level.

Minutes from the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 17 and 18 showed that members of the board agreed that the country's economy was continuing to pick up modestly in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The members added that they will continue to support easing until the inflation target of 2 percent has been reached, the minutes said, and they did not rule out the possibility of further easing in light of the economic stresses caused by the pandemic.

U.S. FHFA's house price index and S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for November and consumer confidence index for January will be featured in the New York session.


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