Burning forecast 12.11.2018

Trading 13 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Burning forecast 12.11.2018

EURUSD: there is a down trend signal.

On Monday morning, the euro broke down the weekly level of 1.1300 - this is a strong signal for a down trend.

The lowest trend target is 1.1050.

We keep sales from 1.1350.

Sell from 1.1300.

Alternative: Buy from 1.1500.

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New Zealand Food Prices Climb 0.3% In October

Trading 13 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Food prices in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in October, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices added 0.2 percent on month, while meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 2.4 percent, grocery food prices fell 0.3 percent, non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 0.3 percent and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.1 percent.

Lamb chop prices were up 7.7 percent from September, reaching a record NZ$17.12 a kilogram, while the cost of sausages was also up, by 4.9 percent to NZ$10.30 a kilo.

"With summer approaching, these price rises will make meat for the barbecue more expensive," consumer prices manager Geraldine Duoba said.

However, the price of sirloin and porterhouse steak was down slightly from its recent high in September 2018, to NZ$30.72 per kilogram.

The price increases in meat follow falls in the New Zealand dollar and strong demand for exports of New Zealand meat, especially lamb.

These increases contributed to a 2.5 percent rise in the price of meat and poultry in October. This is the biggest monthly increase since January 2016.

Vegetable prices fell 8.7 percent in October, after an 8.7 percent fall in September.

"Tomatoes, courgettes and lettuces all had seasonal price falls this month," Duoba said. "These prices usually keep falling as we head towards summer."

Tomato prices fell 22 percent to NZ$6.90 a kg, while lettuce dropped 30 percent to NZ$1.28 per 500g head.

The fall in courgette prices follows a large increase in September, when supplies were limited. This was when imports of courgettes, and some other fruit and vegetables, were temporarily suspended for biosecurity reasons. New-season supplies of local courgettes came on to the market in October, bringing the price down again. However, courgette prices were still 15 percent higher than they were in October 2017.

On a yearly basis, food prices climbed 0.6 percent.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices fell 5.6 percent, while meat, poultry, and fish prices climbed 2.6 percent, grocery food prices added 0.6 percent, non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 1.0 percent and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices advanced 2.9 percent.

Unadjusted, food prices fell 0.6 percent on month.


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New Zealand Food Prices Add 0.3% In October

Trading 13 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Food prices in New Zealand were up a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent on month in October, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices added 0.2 percent on month, while meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 2.4 percent, grocery food prices fell 0.3 percent, non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 0.3 percent and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.1 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices climbed 0.6 percent.

Individually, fruit and vegetable prices fell 5.6 percent, while meat, poultry, and fish prices climbed 2.6 percent, grocery food prices added 0.6 percent, non-alcoholic beverage prices increased 1.0 percent and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices advanced 2.9 percent.


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*New Zealand Food Prices Rise Seasonally Adjusted 0.3% On Month In October

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

New Zealand Food Prices Rise Seasonally Adjusted 0.3% On Month In October


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Australia Business Confidence Data Due On Tuesday

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Australia will on Tuesday see October results for the indexes of business confidence and conditions from NAB, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In September, the index scores were +5 and +15, respectively.

New Zealand will release October numbers for food prices; in September, food prices were down 0.1 percent on month.


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Oil Falters After Early Gains, Extends Slide To 11th Straight Session

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

After moving higher in early trades on Monday on reports that Saudi Arabia and other major producers are considering reductions in crude output heading into 2019, crude oil futures pared gains and settled lower for an eleventh successive session.

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tweet, "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply," appears to have contributed to crude's fall from earlier higher levels in the session.

Crude oil prices had been climbing up last month amid expectations that the sanctions on Iranian oil from early November will result in short supply in the market. However, with the Trump administration offering waivers and allowing eight big oil importers to continue buying Iranian oil, and the consistent increase in U.S. crude inventories have been dragging down oil prices since October 29.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration released a report that revealed U.S. oil production increased by as much as 400,000 barrels a day to a record 11.6 million barrels a day for the week ended November 2. Also, crude stockpiles increased for seven successive weeks.

Crude oil futures for December, which rose to $61.28 earlier in the session, settled lower by $0.26, or 0.4%, at $59.93 a barrel, the lowest settlement since February 2018.

On Friday, crude oil futures ended down $0.48, or 0.8%, at $60.19 a barrel.

On Sunday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters at the meeting in Abu Dhabi that the kingdom, the world's largest oil exporter, plans to reducer oil exports by 500,000 barrels per day in December , but there was no consensus as yet among oil producers about cutting production.

The Joint OPEC-non-OPEC Ministerial Monitoring Committee reportedly debated over whether it would be necessary to reduce output by one million barrels a day next year to prevent a market glut.


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Dollar Gaining Ground In Holiday Trading

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

The dollar is rising against its major rivals Monday afternoon. The Veterans Day holiday is keeping some investors away from their desks, but concerns over Brexit and the Italian budget have helped to drive the buck higher.

The budget stalemate between Italy and European Union has investors in a cautious mood as the deadline to present a revised budget plan by the Italian government neared.

Italian Deputy Premier Matteo Salvini said Sunday that the government could block European Union budget decisions and other policies if the bloc's partners continue to show disrespect to Italians.

The EU has asked Italy to come up with a revised budget plan by Tuesday.

European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos cautioned that Italy's budget crisis poses concerns about public finances given high debt level and the political tensions around the Italian government's budget plans.

The dollar has climbed to over a 16-month high of $1.1240 against the Euro Monday afternoon, from an early low of $1.1330.

The buck has risen to around $1.2850 against the pound sterling Monday afternoon, from a low of $1.2946 this morning.

The greenback reached an early high of Y114.207 against the Japanese Yen Monday, but has since retreated to around Y113.845.

Producer prices in Japan were up 0.3 percent on month in October, the Bank of Japan said on Monday, unchanged from the September reading. On a yearly basis, producer prices climbed 2.9 percent, slowing from 3.0 percent in the previous month.


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Gold Settles Lower Again As Dollar Rises To Near 17-month High

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Gold prices edged lower on Monday, extending recent losses, as the dollar climbed to a near 17-month high amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate next month.

While leaving the interest rate unchanged after its policy meeting last week, the Fed had indicated that its is likely to raise interest rate in December and might resort to three more increases in the coming year to reach the "neutral rate" of between 2.5% and 3.5%.

Recent data from U.S. Labor Department that showed producer prices to have risen more than expected in October has also raised the prospects of a tighter monetary policy. The data showed the producer price index was up by a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in October, compared to a month earlier. That was above the expected increase of 0.3%.

The dollar strengthened against most major currencies and the dollar index rose to its highest level since June 2017, climbing to 97.41.

Gold futures for December ended down $5.10, or 0.4%, at $1,203.50 an ounce, the lowest settlement in nearly five weeks.

On Friday, gold futures declined by $16.50, or about 1.4%, to settle at $1,208.60 an ounce.

Silver futures for December ended lower by $0.129, at $14.011 an ounce, while Copper futures for December settled at $2,6765 per pound, losing $0.0080 in the session.


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Analysis of Bitcoin for November 12, 2018

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

Bitcoin has been quite bullish with the recent momentum which lead the price to reside at the edge of $6,400 area while having dynamic levels such as 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line supporting it. The price has recently broke above the Kumo Cloud resistance while Chikou Span is also residing above the price line which indicates further bullish momentum in the coming days with target towards $6,500 area. Though the price is still quite volatile and corrective but as it remains above $6,000 area with a daily close, the bulliish bias is expected to continue to push the price higher in the process.

SUPPORT: 6000

RESISTANCE: 6500, 7000

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE

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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for November 12, 2018

Trading 12 nov 2018 Commentaire »

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Since September 13, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout above the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090.

On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish to test the backside of the broken uptrend.

On H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair looked oversold around the price levels of 1.2700. BUY entries were suggested around (1.2700).

As for the bullish DAILY breakout scenario to remain valid, quick bullish breakout above 1.3000 (50% Fibo level) was achieved two weeks ago.

This enhanced further bullish advance towards the price level of 1.3170-1.3200 where the depicted downtrend came to meet the GBP/USD pair.

Last week, signs of bearish rejection were demonstrated around the price zone of 1.3170-1.3200 (the depicted downtrend). This initiated the current bearish pullback. The initial bearish target was already reached around 1.2900.

Currently, the price zone of (1.2900-1.2850) now constitutes a prominent demand zone corresponding to the backside of the depicted trend line.

Conservative traders can have a valid BUY entry around the current price levels. T/P levels should be located around 1.2970 and 1.3100.

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